*Eneco Tour* Monday 10th August to Sunday 16th August

2015  »  11th Eneco Tour (2.UWT)

This Belgian and Dutch World Tour stage race is normally a really exciting race. You only have to look through the list of previous winners to know that this is not your normal week long stage race. It is basically a stage race of classics with a time trial thrown into the middle. We should expect crosswinds on the initial flatter stages in Holland before we cross into Belgium and a couple of stages with the sharp hills we would normally associate with Amstel Gold or Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Finally, the riders face the cobbled bergs of Flanders.
Eneco Tour Winners
2014 | WELLENS Tim
2013 | STYBAR Zdenek
2012 | BOOM Lars
2011 | BOASSON HAGEN Edvald
2010 | MARTIN Tony
2009 | BOASSON HAGEN Edvald
2008 | GUTIéRREZ Iván
2007 | GUTIéRREZ Iván
2006 | SCHUMACHER Stefan
2005 | JULICH Bobby

2014 Eneco Tour
1.WELLENS Tim 25:30:15
2.BOOM Lars 0:07
3.DUMOULIN Tom 0:13
4.GRIVKO Andriy 0:33
5.VAN AVERMAET Greg 0:34
6.THOMAS Geraint 0:38
7.GILBERT Philippe 0:48
8.KEUKELEIRE Jens 0:56
9.LANGEVELD Sebastian 1:04
10.MARCATO Marco 1:11

Startlist
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Eneco_Tour_2015-startlist

Market
http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/eneco-tour/winner

Stages
It was quite tricky to get profiles for this race. I ended up using the ones that are on steephill.tv, an excellent site which is well worth a look for information about races. I think these have been knocked up using GPSVisualizer.com and as the distances quoted on the profiles don't match up with the distances listed on the race website for each stage I'm not entirely convinced they are 100% accurate. I can tell by the tiny profiles on some of the maps that they are pretty close however in terms of shape.

The first three stages are fairly flat and you would expect to see them end in bunch sprints of some sort. The first stage around Bolsward has a high probability of crosswinds being right in the North of the Netherlands near the Afsluitdijk. The second stage in the South of the country should be less complicated, as should the third stage as they cross into Belgium. The sprints should be quite competitive. Greipel is following his successful Tour de France and he will be competing against Viviani, Guardini, Demare, Hofland, Modolo, Cort, Haussler and JJ Rojas amongst others.
Monday 10th August Stage 1 - Bolsward › Bolsward (183.5k)

Tuesday 11th August Stage 2 - Breda › Breda (180k)

Wednesday 12th August Stage 3 - Beveren › Ardooie (171.9k)


The time trial is longer than in 2014 when it was only 9km. Accordingly, you'd have to expect bigger and more significant time gaps as a result. The route is fairly flat and should suit the powerful riders.
Thursday 13th August Stage 4 (ITT) - Hoogerheide › Hoogerheide (13.9k)


Stages 5 and 6 are quite similar, characterised by lots of very short sharp climbs. This is Ardennes Classic territory and should provide some very exciting racing. Both these stages have final finishing circuits with some climbs taken multiple times.
Friday 14th August Stage 5 - Riemst › Sittard-Geleen (179.6k)

Saturday 15th August Stage 6 - Heerlen › Houffalize (198k)


This final stage features a number of the cobbled climbs from The Tour of Flanders such as the Valkenberg. Again we have a finishing circuit, which sees the Denderoordberg, Bosberg and Onkerzelestraat taken twice each along with the Muur van Garaardsbergen, which is taken on fully twice as part of the circuit and then the finish line is half way up it the third time. The Muur van Geraardsbergen is a brute. It is narrow, cobbled and is over 1km at over 9% average gradient with some parts reaching 18%. It has feature many times in this race and the Tour of Flanders but not in the latter since 2012. If the GC is in the balance here this will be a fantastic spectacle.
Sunday 16th August Stage 7 - Sint-Pieters-Leeuw › Geraardsbergen (193.8k)


Previous winners Lars Boom and Tim Wellens line up. Boom was also 2nd last year to Wellens and his teammate Andrei Grivko was back in 4th. Van Avermaet and Gilbert were also prominent last year on familiar roads finishing 5th and 7th respectively. Wellens won this race in 2014 when he won the Queen Stage and managed to protect his lead the following day. This year the time trial is longer at 13.9km, so a decent time trialler is probably a factor when looking for the winner. A history of good performances in races like the Tour of Flanders and Amstel Gold would also be a decent indicator. Someone that ticks all the boxes might be Greg Van Avermaet.

I've backed Van Avermaet 9/2 for the outright. Think he fits the bill best of all. For stage 1 I've chanced Boonen at 50/1 and Theuns at 100/1. I was hoping for windy day but doesn't look like it's happening.

A very tricky race to pick the winner, which would make trading the best option, however there is not much liquidity and unlikely to be, which is a shame.

Grivko has been very consistent in this race, with a 4th and a 3rd in the past two editions. And he would be my pick out of AST, since Boom's condition began to come off by the end of the Tour of Denmark, imo. However, I'm not really keen on his chances, he is looking old at 32yo, and he's had his chances and not won, so unlikely to win now.

Wellens wasn't great in the Tour, and I think he might struggle to repeat his winning performance of last year.

Terpstra might be a good short position trade, since the first four stages will suit him, but again, can you rely on liquidity?

GVA crashed in San Sebastian when hit by a tv bike, and whilst not nursing any injuries I think Gilbert is BMC's main pick here. Gilbert had a fair Tour of Wallonia, however he was using that race to find form for San Sebastian where he finished in 2nd place, suggesting he can still engage himself like in the past glory years. I therefore think he might be right on the button with his form here after riding a respectable race in London, last start. His best result was a 2nd place finish in 2011, and last year he finished in 7th place, however he was going into San Sebastian with the after-effects of an illness, so wasn't in any reasonable shape.

Simon Geschke looks pretty well suited, especially after what he proved in the TdF stage win, and I was surprised he was 74/1, so have taken a small stake on here.

In conclusion; looks like a developing narrative, making ante-post selections very difficult, however Gilbert and Geschke are two versatile riders with some form, and they are two of my fancied riders  at this early point.

Good luck to all,
SP

There was some talk about the Gorilla for this stage, so he is my selection, but if I can lay off some Gorilla I'll add Boonen.

Golden kilometre!

Will be interesting to see how Theuns performs on GC. Has had a breakthrough season in the Spring Classics over home roads, and so no surprise to see TFR sign him quickly for next season as Spartacus' apprentice. Has some junior form around LBL, so looks like he might be versatile enough to cover most ground quite well here. Very difficult assignments, though.

Viviani wins in a chaotic finale, the Gorilla in 4th after evidently sitting off at a crucial point and then panicking by going too early and looking like he required an additional gear. Funny stuff! DVP or Danny Van Poppel finished in 2nd place, and he had two stage wins in Wallonia last start, so am keeping a watch on him.

Boonen was there with two of his teammates to lead out, but it looked like he wanted an invitation to get involved!

Looks like the weather should be ok in Breda tomorrow and Ardooie on Wednesday, so we should be set for two more bunch sprints. I want to know what on earth has wrong with Arnaud Demare? Not only has he seemingly not progressed as expected but he seems to have actually gone backwards. He should be really competing at the sharp end in fields like this and he's miles off the pace.

Hey MC, did you go with Boonen on the chance of echelons, or did you think he'd be aiming for the opening win regardless?

On Demare -- I would suggest that, specifically in this type of chaotic finish that becomes really tactical and messy and he has to pick the right wheel, he has come out and said a number of times that he finds it frustrating, and instead wants the peloton stretched out in a line or arrowhead. On the broader issue of his poor season, I think the burden of expectation has cracked him a little, and that's why he constantly falls back on his young age in interviews as an excuse for sub-par performances. It's a bit of a snowball effect, but in opposite, in so far as he continues to lose confidence and get frustrated with himself after each showing where he should have contented, or was expected to, and he just loses more layers of the confidence he gained last season. He essentially requires things to go right for him for a few stages in a stage race, and he will pick up with consecutive strong results as he regains confidence and throws off the burden of expectation. Right now he is stuck, psychologically, I believe. He has a monkey on his back.

The Gorilla complained of the recurring knee problem as an excuse for his poor ride in the finale yesterday, which he initially sustained in stage 14 of the TdF, and which also caused him to withdraw from RideLondon, prior to this. There is speculation he might not even be the LTS man for the sprint, and they are not even bothering to get organised, so with SKY doing all of the work so far for Viviani, and DVP looking fast, I've laid the Gorilla. He should've won that sprint quite easily yesterday, so there must be problems. This two-man breakaway is not going to stay alive.

Good luck to all,
SP

Nice fight between Grivko and Gilbert for the leftover secs in the Golden Km, with Gilbert gaining 2 from 3 -- confirms my initial belief that BMC's man looks to be Gilbert.

Break back -- pretty good effort for a two-man job, 14kms to go.

Gorilla...

cant believe the commentators not thinking Greipel would sprint for lotto. lol

Couldn't believe my eyes when the @ 3.5 lay appeared on my screen :) only took 15 at the odds as i was already on Andre.

There were no bets on today's stage for me...so no surprise that Boonen placed today when I wasn't on him. In response to your question SP, I backed Boonen for Stage 1 because I thought there may be a decent chance of echelons forming and if so Boonen would be quite likely to feature strongly in a sprint from a reduced bunch, with the backup of a slight possibility that he could sneak into a place in a full bunch sprint or even with a late attack if the leadout trains looked at each other. Unlucky on the Greipel lay. I backed Cavendish on Champs Elysees for similar reasons - the talk out of the Lotto camp was so negative that you had to look elsewhere. Well, we've both been burnt by that one now and we'll know what to do the next time the vibes are that Greipel is injured/ill/off the pace.

Lotto-Soudal definitely have the best sprint train in the business.  They put on an absolute clinic on stage 2 and were able to control the last 6km virtually unchallenged.  Greipel was delivered to the front easily with less than 200m to go and it was a formality from there.  Greipel may lack a touch of rhythm after his recent time off but was so dominant at the tour he surely has some residual form in the legs.
Greipel certainly doesn't look invincible here but the other sprinters teams can't afford to let Lotto-Soudal have it all there own way otherwise stage 3 will end with the same result.  Last chance for the sprinters on stage 3 and I expect some of the other teams to put some pressure on Lotto-Soudal and attempt to disrupt their well organised sprint train.

Some wind and a possibility of rain, with a few 90 degree corners 1km from the finish could make things less predictable for today's stage.  I would expect to see etixx on the front at some point in an attempt to break things up.  I've gone wider today but nothing huge as I'm not in a big hurry to oppose Greipel too much.

Less likely to rain now .  If Greipel does struggle in the conditions or loses contact in the corners at the 1km mark, I'm guessing Lotto-Soudal could ride for Debuschere. At around 75's could be a good shout as Lotto-Soudal still have a very strong team.

That's what I thought MC, cheers.

No bets for me as yet -- bit confused by the Gorilla's form and motivation, tbh. Looked out of sorts in the opener, complained of the knee problem after the race, and then came out yesterday and won with ease, albeit with little in the way of real opposition. Wait and watch proposition, got some nice and new whiteboard markers so might continue my Vuelta research, this break is small although it has Theuns, but really not much to see and the peloton looks sharp. Topped-up on Gilbert for the GC.

Good luck to all,
SP

Taken Van Poppel, he seems in good form, just need Trek to finally get a sprint right.

LTS lead-out looked quite strong yesterday to be fair, and there is no reason to think they won't control things again today, so am going with the Gorilla, although I don't like the price one bit -- very short!

Masterful from Etixx

Typical Belgian finish with turns and narrow roads disrupting the sprint trains, and Tornado Tom getting a proper jump -- superb win for Boonen, and EQS would've had this one penciled-in from the start. This was really obvious in retrospect -- just didn't put the work in to see it. Demare -- very dangerous!

Belgian ambush, basically!

Terpstra 11/1 is my main bet for tomorrow but also tempted by Quinziato @ 25/1. There was some 50/1 around earlier but I couldn't get any. Think a case can be made for Boonen for the GC at 40/1 ew, have added him to my GVA bet. Only question mark for me on this sort of parcours was about form. If he can ride a good TT he could be bang there at the end.

No bets for me on the ITT -- Terpstra looks a good selection, and the conditions are not adverse in nature, I don't believe, so best of luck for a Dutch destruction job, MC. On the Boonen question -- if a case can be made for him for the GC, then a case can be made for him not winning on GC, a more convincing case I would advance, on account of unsuitable ground going into AGR and LBL, which essentially finds him tailing out but still arguably in it over the Hellingen on the final stage. Would be laying at 20s, but 40s is some value, and we've seen stranger things.

Good luck to all,
SP

Put some cobblestones down on the open country sections and you have some nice sectors for future rides. Van Emden still holding sway as Boom comes in in 4th. Terpstra out now, is not going into adverse conditions as I intimated, so it'll be interesting to see how he contends.

What has Jos Van Emden done in like years, though? Hope Terpstra knocks him off -- so supple isn't he!

Not surprised by Van Emden winning here on home soil.  He had the the better of these riders over a similar course at the TdF.  Nice price too.

Not sure there won't be more than a few sprinters contesting the finish of stage 5.

Kelderman is good value on here at 6/1, especially in comparison to the Books who are evidently keeping him safe with the average price being 4/1 and second favourite. As the virtual leader on the road he just needs to ride patiently and stay with the fancied riders on the primary sections. Doesn't have much form in AGR, however he is a Dutchman and a top-10 on similar roads in this area in the Volta Limburg Classis this year, shows he can give a good account of himself on these climbs. He was also a fancied hope prior to the start by some, so with a handful of seconds over the fancied riders he will become a good chance if he can consolidate his lead by having a solid ride today.

Good luck to all,
SP

Agree, Kelderman has to be a big chance for the overall. 

I've taken Tiesj Benoot today at 30/1 and small stake on Lampaert, Geschke, Lutsenko all around 80/1.

With both the actual and Virtual Leader on the road, there is no surprise to see TLJ on the front dictating terms. Golden Km will be really interesting today with only the two man breakaway leaving singles for someone in the peloton to get -- should be a good stage -- no bets for me as yet, looking at the GC market, also.

Spot of rain about!

2 secs for Gilbert, 1 sec for GVA, since they both worked together against the OGE rider.

* for the Golden Km.

This breakaway looks close -- very close!

Wellens and Benoot have to be a good chance here with TLS doing all this work, primarily with the Gorilla.

Breakaway ready to blow, I think!

Boom attacks, gets up the road, and then immediately looks back inviting the close!

Epic stage thanks to the conditions, but still wanting some more attacks!

Might get an attack on this climb coming out of the select peloton.

WTF the Gorilla gaping the main men?

The Gorilla gapped the select peloton on the climb, and drew out a teammate with a few others -- amazing!

Kelderman -- provide assistance mate!

About time -- Kelderman!

Fantastic stage!!!

Breakaway dying...

Le Bon getting right up on the camera bike!

Gilbert and GVA sprinting for seconds on the golden kilometer. lol

...then they get gaped by Greipel

Le Bon -- gets it -- great ride -- displayed excellent strength to attack and gap his breakaway compatriot Van Baarle! Absolutely amazing ride by the Gorilla -- we saw this in Flanders this year when he got a roll up on the Hellingen, but to hold on and essentially make the selection for the second group was quite breathtaking, really! Kelderman did well -- no complaints with adding him at 6/1 -- the Books were right to keep him safe.

Kelderman smart not to work too much too early and risk wasting energy when he already has a lead on the other contenders.  Much harder day tomorrow.

Just reviewing the stage 5 tactics by BMC with both GVA and Gilbert involved in the Golden Km sprints, where they got 1 sec and 2 secs, respectively. Unless they were going to use that attack as a springboard to bridge to the two man breakaway it was clearly a waste of effort, given the understanding of how much time was available by being more attentive on the climb where the Gorilla made the second group selection, and then working with LTS to spread out the GC. Yes it would be a big call to springboard some 35 kms out, but clearly given their no-show on the Weg Langs Stammen climb it took some stuffing out of them for little return compared to what Wellens and especially Kelderman got out of the stage, by just riding attentively.

Stage 7 looks like an absolute cracker, also because this race is so finely balanced -- the longest stage of the tour and at over 200 kms it is a true top-class test.

Kelderman, who only had some Under23 form previously, actually finished with Gilbert in the +1:41 secs group at this year's LBL won by Valverde, so he should handle the conditions fine. Alaphilippe finished in 2nd place, so it will be interesting to see if EQS put all their chips into the one basket and work for him, given he is their best-placed rider at +54 secs back and still within reach of Kelderman.

The Malmedyerstraße will soften up the peloton and that's where the long-range breakaway will probably form, but the up and down all-day-long will make for selective racing and there's still a lot of riders in this race within the lead, however I hope we get a genuine free-for-all bar-room brawl at some point, most likely from approaching the Golden Km standing at a manageable 20kms out from the finish for a bruising encounter.

The Books have gone short with Kelderman and I am not complaining, but I think odds on is not a legitimate position given the split-second decision essentially deciding a critical, race-winning move within the race. Wellens at second favourite and 6/1 best with two is also questionable. If you look at his sign-in photos for the first stage of the TdF he appeared decidedly pudgy, and is now stripping down and finding form, but if it's a bruising encounter it will still be tough for him, I think. Boom looks ready for a spell, but I wouldn't want to be laying him. Which leaves the BMC duo of GVA and Gilbert as the obvious main dangers to Kelderman, still. If they work together one of them will likely win, but DS has to be smarter than on the previous stage. Alaphilippe is an interesting proposition at 75/1 with the Books, however there is no place betting from what I can find. Yes he is +54 secs behind, however Wellens opened a 50 sec gap when he won the penultimate stage last year, so he is still within reach, but perhaps a podium best.





Just reviewing the stage 5 tactics by BMC with both GVA and Gilbert involved in the Golden Km sprints, where they got 1 sec and 2 secs, respectively. Unless they were going to use that attack as a springboard to bridge to the two man breakaway it was clearly a waste of effort, given the understanding of how much time was available by being more attentive on the climb where the Gorilla made the second group selection, and then working with LTS to spread out the GC. Yes it would be a big call to springboard some 35 kms out, but clearly given their no-show on the Weg Langs Stammen climb it took some stuffing out of them for little return compared to what Wellens and especially Kelderman got out of the stage, by just riding attentively.

Stage 7 looks like an absolute cracker, also because this race is so finely balanced -- the longest stage of the tour and at over 200 kms it is a true top-class test.

Kelderman, who only had some Under23 form previously, actually finished with Gilbert in the +1:41 secs group at this year's LBL won by Valverde, so he should handle the conditions fine. Alaphilippe finished in 2nd place, so it will be interesting to see if EQS put all their chips into the one basket and work for him, given he is their best-placed rider at +54 secs back and still within reach of Kelderman.

The Malmedyerstraße will soften up the peloton and that's where the long-range breakaway will probably form, but the up and down all-day-long will make for selective racing and there's still a lot of riders in this race within the lead, however I hope we get a genuine free-for-all bar-room brawl at some point, most likely from approaching the Golden Km standing at a manageable 20kms out from the finish for a bruising encounter.

The Books have gone short with Kelderman and I am not complaining, but I think odds on is not a legitimate position given the split-second decision essentially deciding a critical, race-winning move within the race. Wellens at second favourite and 6/1 best with two is also questionable. If you look at his sign-in photos for the first stage of the TdF he appeared decidedly pudgy, and is now stripping down and finding form, but if it's a bruising encounter it will still be tough for him, I think. Boom looks ready for a spell, but I wouldn't want to be laying him. Which leaves the BMC duo of GVA and Gilbert as the obvious main dangers to Kelderman, still. If they work together one of them will likely win, but DS has to be smarter than on the previous stage. Alaphilippe is an interesting proposition at 75/1 with the Books, however there is no place betting from what I can find. Yes he is +54 secs behind, however Wellens opened a 50 sec gap when he won the penultimate stage last year, so he is still within reach, but perhaps a podium best.









Just reviewing the stage 5 tactics by BMC with both GVA and Gilbert involved in the Golden Km sprints, where they got 1 sec and 2 secs, respectively. Unless they were going to use that attack as a springboard to bridge to the two man breakaway it was clearly a waste of effort, given the understanding of how much time was available by being more attentive on the climb where the Gorilla made the second group selection, and then working with LTS to spread out the GC. Yes it would be a big call to springboard some 35 kms out, but clearly given their no-show on the Weg Langs Stammen climb it took some stuffing out of them for little return compared to what Wellens and especially Kelderman got out of the stage, by just riding attentively.

Stage 7 looks like an absolute cracker, also because this race is so finely balanced -- the longest stage of the tour and at over 200 kms it is a true top-class test.

Kelderman, who only had some Under23 form previously, actually finished with Gilbert in the +1:41 secs group at this year's LBL won by Valverde, so he should handle the conditions fine. Alaphilippe finished in 2nd place, so it will be interesting to see if EQS put all their chips into the one basket and work for him, given he is their best-placed rider at +54 secs back and still within reach of Kelderman.

The Malmedyerstraße will soften up the peloton and that's where the long-range breakaway will probably form, but the up and down all-day-long will make for selective racing and there's still a lot of riders in this race within the lead, however I hope we get a genuine free-for-all bar-room brawl at some point, most likely from approaching the Golden Km standing at a manageable 20kms out from the finish for a bruising encounter.

The Books have gone short with Kelderman and I am not complaining, but I think odds on is not a legitimate position given the split-second decision essentially deciding a critical, race-winning move within the race. Wellens at second favourite and 6/1 best with two is also questionable. If you look at his sign-in photos for the first stage of the TdF he appeared decidedly pudgy, and is now stripping down and finding form, but if it's a bruising encounter it will still be tough for him, I think. Boom looks ready for a spell, but I wouldn't want to be laying him. Which leaves the BMC duo of GVA and Gilbert as the obvious main dangers to Kelderman, still. If they work together one of them will likely win, but DS has to be smarter than on the previous stage. Alaphilippe is an interesting proposition at 75/1 with the Books, however there is no place betting from what I can find. Yes he is +54 secs behind, however Wellens opened a 50 sec gap when he won the penultimate stage last year, so he is still within reach, but perhaps a podium best.




Just reviewing the stage 5 tactics by BMC with both GVA and Gilbert involved in the Golden Km sprints, where they got 1 sec and 2 secs, respectively. Unless they were going to use that attack as a springboard to bridge to the two man breakaway it was clearly a waste of effort, given the understanding of how much time was available by being more attentive on the climb where the Gorilla made the second group selection, and then working with LTS to spread out the GC. Yes it would be a big call to springboard some 35 kms out, but clearly given their no-show on the Weg Langs Stammen climb it took some stuffing out of them for little return compared to what Wellens and especially Kelderman got out of the stage, by just riding attentively.

Stage 7 looks like an absolute cracker, also because this race is so finely balanced -- the longest stage of the tour and at over 200 kms it is a true top-class test.

Kelderman, who only had some Under 23 form previously, actually finished with Gilbert in the +1:41 secs group at this year's LBL won by Valverde, so he should handle the conditions. Alaphilippe finished in 2nd place, so it will be interesting to see if EQS put all their chips into the one basket and work for him, given he is their best-placed rider at +54 secs back and still within reach of Kelderman.

The Malmedyerstraße will soften up the peloton and that's where the long-range breakaway will probably form, but the up and down all-day-long will make for selective racing and there's still a lot of riders in this race within the lead, however I hope we get a genuine free-for-all bar-room brawl at some point, most likely from approaching the Golden Km standing at a manageable 20kms out from the finish for a bruising encounter.

The Books have gone short with Kelderman and I am not complaining as it influenced this market and I have laid off some, but I think odds on is not a legitimate position given the split-second decision essentially deciding a critical, race-winning move within the race. Wellens at second favourite and 6/1 best with two is also questionable. If you look at his sign-in photos for the first stage of the TdF he appeared decidedly pudgy, and is now stripping down and finding form, but if it's a bruising encounter it will still be tough for him, I think. Boom looks ready for a spell, but I wouldn't want to be laying him. Which leaves the BMC duo of GVA and Gilbert as the obvious main dangers to Kelderman, still. If they work together one of them will likely win, but DS has to be smarter than on the previous stage. Alaphilippe is an interesting proposition at 75/1 with the Books, however there is no place betting from what I can find. Yes he is +54 secs behind, however Wellens opened a 50 sec gap when he won the penultimate stage last year, so he is still within reach, but perhaps a podium at best.

that's a first...

Has anyone reviewed BMC's tactics from today? Only managed to catch limited highlights from the last two stages, and feel like I've missed a proper treat. Don't think I'm going to see much more over the next two days either as we're going on holiday.

I like Kelderman but the prices available for him to win the outright are laughable considering the two stages left to run. He's as short as 8/13 in places and is best priced 5/6, although I see 2.1 is available on here. I wouldn't back him at 5/4 or even 6/4. He has 20+ riders within a minute, and two ugly stages left to race. There will be attacks from all over the place tomorrow and Sunday, I expect he'll be isolated fairly early and it would be an astonishing achievement to hold on to the leader's jersey. To be honest I'd be surprised if he's still wearing it this time tomorrow.

BAR-ROOM BRAWL -- long way out!

stage over
race over

Wellens on his once a year peak

I thought after winning the Eneco tour last year Wellens might of done alright in the classics and won a few races this year.  Looks like he was just waiting for the Eneco to come around again.

Powerhouse ride by Wellens to essentially repeat what he did last year on the penultimate stage. Kelderman was left to fend for himself after all of his teammates dropped away, and he was doing a sterling job closing down attacks and riding forwardly, however those tactics were tiring him out and unsurprisingly he eventually popped. The only rider who did more work was GVA, he was all over this race, and he showed he was very much stronger than teammate Gilbert, so perhaps admittedly it wasn't so much about who the leader was for this race in BMC as much as who will prove themselves to be stronger, and GVA was amazingly strong, but he never closed on Wellens even though he got assistance late from my pick at ante-post, Geschke. EQS gave the nod to Alaphillipe as expected, and he gave it a decent go in places, but ultimately didn't have the legs. BMC were in a really good position at one point with both riders in the break, but they were so far out it would have been suicide to commit and they were eventually closed down.

It was tough, bruising riding throughout, with the rain again an influencing factor -- this tour is finally confirming it's promise as a stage race for classics men. Love it!

With Wellens holding a 63 sec lead over GVA, it appears substantial that he wins and I think he will, but a case might be advanced that it is far from locked-in; for instance, he lost a minute to the leader and 15 secs to the second group on the final stage last year, and he has absolutely no form on the pave whatsoever. We've seen what the pave can do to riders when they're wet, the rider is tired or fatigued, and when he has little experience on them -- now combine all those factors as we may get tomorrow -- they go down or find trouble in some other way. Wellens can rely on a strong team though, and LTS closed down all the dangerous moves last year, so there is no reason to think they won't be riding strongly tomorrow, so as such scenarios are weighed, they are best done in price form and I think Wellens is value only at 1.45 or better.

Van Avermaet is capable of making up a minute or so on this sort of course, but it's going to be a tough job against a strong Lotto team.

GVA won this corresponding stage in last years edition of the race, Wellens finished 8th, 6 sec behind.

If GVA is going to try something with BMC than surely it must happen at the Golden Km, now approaching?

...Well in terms of distance anyway, since all the bonus time is gone from the breakaway.

Two old and experienced men in Quinziato and Leukemans versus the young Lampaert. I'm going with the young gun at 2/1 -- has had some good form in the spring classics and will be out to impress in his first season with EQS.

Market says Quinziato, and Lampaert at 4/1 is worth topping up.

Quinziato it is...

Kudos to Wellens, Eneco is a hard race to win let alone do it back to back.  Might be one to watch at Il Lombardia later in the year.

Lampaert just didn't have the power on the Denderoordberg climb, even though he did the least amount of work in that three man break, although he was the first to respond when Quinziato attacked, however the elastic snapped quite easily given Quinziato's strength as a BMC workhorse. He did begin to fade on the Muur, but had a big enough gap to hold on.

Wellens wins the Overall -- probably underestimated him too much at ante-post when in retrospect his shape was much better than at the start of the TdF.