*Eneco Tour* Monday 10th August to Sunday 16th August

2015  »  11th Eneco Tour (2.UWT)

This Belgian and Dutch World Tour stage race is normally a really exciting race. You only have to look through the list of previous winners to know that this is not your normal week long stage race. It is basically a stage race of classics with a time trial thrown into the middle. We should expect crosswinds on the initial flatter stages in Holland before we cross into Belgium and a couple of stages with the sharp hills we would normally associate with Amstel Gold or Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Finally, the riders face the cobbled bergs of Flanders.
Eneco Tour Winners
2014 | WELLENS Tim
2013 | STYBAR Zdenek
2012 | BOOM Lars
2011 | BOASSON HAGEN Edvald
2010 | MARTIN Tony
2009 | BOASSON HAGEN Edvald
2008 | GUTIéRREZ Iván
2007 | GUTIéRREZ Iván
2006 | SCHUMACHER Stefan
2005 | JULICH Bobby

2014 Eneco Tour
1.WELLENS Tim 25:30:15
2.BOOM Lars 0:07
3.DUMOULIN Tom 0:13
4.GRIVKO Andriy 0:33
5.VAN AVERMAET Greg 0:34
6.THOMAS Geraint 0:38
7.GILBERT Philippe 0:48
8.KEUKELEIRE Jens 0:56
9.LANGEVELD Sebastian 1:04
10.MARCATO Marco 1:11

Startlist
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Eneco_Tour_2015-startlist

Market
http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/eneco-tour/winner

Stages
It was quite tricky to get profiles for this race. I ended up using the ones that are on steephill.tv, an excellent site which is well worth a look for information about races. I think these have been knocked up using GPSVisualizer.com and as the distances quoted on the profiles don't match up with the distances listed on the race website for each stage I'm not entirely convinced they are 100% accurate. I can tell by the tiny profiles on some of the maps that they are pretty close however in terms of shape.

The first three stages are fairly flat and you would expect to see them end in bunch sprints of some sort. The first stage around Bolsward has a high probability of crosswinds being right in the North of the Netherlands near the Afsluitdijk. The second stage in the South of the country should be less complicated, as should the third stage as they cross into Belgium. The sprints should be quite competitive. Greipel is following his successful Tour de France and he will be competing against Viviani, Guardini, Demare, Hofland, Modolo, Cort, Haussler and JJ Rojas amongst others.
Monday 10th August Stage 1 - Bolsward › Bolsward (183.5k)

Tuesday 11th August Stage 2 - Breda › Breda (180k)

Wednesday 12th August Stage 3 - Beveren › Ardooie (171.9k)


The time trial is longer than in 2014 when it was only 9km. Accordingly, you'd have to expect bigger and more significant time gaps as a result. The route is fairly flat and should suit the powerful riders.
Thursday 13th August Stage 4 (ITT) - Hoogerheide › Hoogerheide (13.9k)


Stages 5 and 6 are quite similar, characterised by lots of very short sharp climbs. This is Ardennes Classic territory and should provide some very exciting racing. Both these stages have final finishing circuits with some climbs taken multiple times.
Friday 14th August Stage 5 - Riemst › Sittard-Geleen (179.6k)

Saturday 15th August Stage 6 - Heerlen › Houffalize (198k)


This final stage features a number of the cobbled climbs from The Tour of Flanders such as the Valkenberg. Again we have a finishing circuit, which sees the Denderoordberg, Bosberg and Onkerzelestraat taken twice each along with the Muur van Garaardsbergen, which is taken on fully twice as part of the circuit and then the finish line is half way up it the third time. The Muur van Geraardsbergen is a brute. It is narrow, cobbled and is over 1km at over 9% average gradient with some parts reaching 18%. It has feature many times in this race and the Tour of Flanders but not in the latter since 2012. If the GC is in the balance here this will be a fantastic spectacle.
Sunday 16th August Stage 7 - Sint-Pieters-Leeuw › Geraardsbergen (193.8k)


Previous winners Lars Boom and Tim Wellens line up. Boom was also 2nd last year to Wellens and his teammate Andrei Grivko was back in 4th. Van Avermaet and Gilbert were also prominent last year on familiar roads finishing 5th and 7th respectively. Wellens won this race in 2014 when he won the Queen Stage and managed to protect his lead the following day. This year the time trial is longer at 13.9km, so a decent time trialler is probably a factor when looking for the winner. A history of good performances in races like the Tour of Flanders and Amstel Gold would also be a decent indicator. Someone that ticks all the boxes might be Greg Van Avermaet.

A very tricky race to pick the winner, which would make trading the best option, however there is not much liquidity and unlikely to be, which is a shame.

Grivko has been very consistent in this race, with a 4th and a 3rd in the past two editions. And he would be my pick out of AST, since Boom's condition began to come off by the end of the Tour of Denmark, imo. However, I'm not really keen on his chances, he is looking old at 32yo, and he's had his chances and not won, so unlikely to win now.

Wellens wasn't great in the Tour, and I think he might struggle to repeat his winning performance of last year.

Terpstra might be a good short position trade, since the first four stages will suit him, but again, can you rely on liquidity?

GVA crashed in San Sebastian when hit by a tv bike, and whilst not nursing any injuries I think Gilbert is BMC's main pick here. Gilbert had a fair Tour of Wallonia, however he was using that race to find form for San Sebastian where he finished in 2nd place, suggesting he can still engage himself like in the past glory years. I therefore think he might be right on the button with his form here after riding a respectable race in London, last start. His best result was a 2nd place finish in 2011, and last year he finished in 7th place, however he was going into San Sebastian with the after-effects of an illness, so wasn't in any reasonable shape.

Simon Geschke looks pretty well suited, especially after what he proved in the TdF stage win, and I was surprised he was 74/1, so have taken a small stake on here.

In conclusion; looks like a developing narrative, making ante-post selections very difficult, however Gilbert and Geschke are two versatile riders with some form, and they are two of my fancied riders  at this early point.

Good luck to all,
SP

Golden kilometre!

Viviani wins in a chaotic finale, the Gorilla in 4th after evidently sitting off at a crucial point and then panicking by going too early and looking like he required an additional gear. Funny stuff! DVP or Danny Van Poppel finished in 2nd place, and he had two stage wins in Wallonia last start, so am keeping a watch on him.

Looks like the weather should be ok in Breda tomorrow and Ardooie on Wednesday, so we should be set for two more bunch sprints. I want to know what on earth has wrong with Arnaud Demare? Not only has he seemingly not progressed as expected but he seems to have actually gone backwards. He should be really competing at the sharp end in fields like this and he's miles off the pace.

The Gorilla complained of the recurring knee problem as an excuse for his poor ride in the finale yesterday, which he initially sustained in stage 14 of the TdF, and which also caused him to withdraw from RideLondon, prior to this. There is speculation he might not even be the LTS man for the sprint, and they are not even bothering to get organised, so with SKY doing all of the work so far for Viviani, and DVP looking fast, I've laid the Gorilla. He should've won that sprint quite easily yesterday, so there must be problems. This two-man breakaway is not going to stay alive.

Good luck to all,
SP

Break back -- pretty good effort for a two-man job, 14kms to go.

cant believe the commentators not thinking Greipel would sprint for lotto. lol

There were no bets on today's stage for me...so no surprise that Boonen placed today when I wasn't on him. In response to your question SP, I backed Boonen for Stage 1 because I thought there may be a decent chance of echelons forming and if so Boonen would be quite likely to feature strongly in a sprint from a reduced bunch, with the backup of a slight possibility that he could sneak into a place in a full bunch sprint or even with a late attack if the leadout trains looked at each other. Unlucky on the Greipel lay. I backed Cavendish on Champs Elysees for similar reasons - the talk out of the Lotto camp was so negative that you had to look elsewhere. Well, we've both been burnt by that one now and we'll know what to do the next time the vibes are that Greipel is injured/ill/off the pace.

Some wind and a possibility of rain, with a few 90 degree corners 1km from the finish could make things less predictable for today's stage.  I would expect to see etixx on the front at some point in an attempt to break things up.  I've gone wider today but nothing huge as I'm not in a big hurry to oppose Greipel too much.

That's what I thought MC, cheers.

No bets for me as yet -- bit confused by the Gorilla's form and motivation, tbh. Looked out of sorts in the opener, complained of the knee problem after the race, and then came out yesterday and won with ease, albeit with little in the way of real opposition. Wait and watch proposition, got some nice and new whiteboard markers so might continue my Vuelta research, this break is small although it has Theuns, but really not much to see and the peloton looks sharp. Topped-up on Gilbert for the GC.

Good luck to all,
SP

LTS lead-out looked quite strong yesterday to be fair, and there is no reason to think they won't control things again today, so am going with the Gorilla, although I don't like the price one bit -- very short!

Typical Belgian finish with turns and narrow roads disrupting the sprint trains, and Tornado Tom getting a proper jump -- superb win for Boonen, and EQS would've had this one penciled-in from the start. This was really obvious in retrospect -- just didn't put the work in to see it. Demare -- very dangerous!

Terpstra 11/1 is my main bet for tomorrow but also tempted by Quinziato @ 25/1. There was some 50/1 around earlier but I couldn't get any. Think a case can be made for Boonen for the GC at 40/1 ew, have added him to my GVA bet. Only question mark for me on this sort of parcours was about form. If he can ride a good TT he could be bang there at the end.

Put some cobblestones down on the open country sections and you have some nice sectors for future rides. Van Emden still holding sway as Boom comes in in 4th. Terpstra out now, is not going into adverse conditions as I intimated, so it'll be interesting to see how he contends.

Not surprised by Van Emden winning here on home soil.  He had the the better of these riders over a similar course at the TdF.  Nice price too.

Kelderman is good value on here at 6/1, especially in comparison to the Books who are evidently keeping him safe with the average price being 4/1 and second favourite. As the virtual leader on the road he just needs to ride patiently and stay with the fancied riders on the primary sections. Doesn't have much form in AGR, however he is a Dutchman and a top-10 on similar roads in this area in the Volta Limburg Classis this year, shows he can give a good account of himself on these climbs. He was also a fancied hope prior to the start by some, so with a handful of seconds over the fancied riders he will become a good chance if he can consolidate his lead by having a solid ride today.

Good luck to all,
SP

With both the actual and Virtual Leader on the road, there is no surprise to see TLJ on the front dictating terms. Golden Km will be really interesting today with only the two man breakaway leaving singles for someone in the peloton to get -- should be a good stage -- no bets for me as yet, looking at the GC market, also.

2 secs for Gilbert, 1 sec for GVA, since they both worked together against the OGE rider.

This breakaway looks close -- very close!