*Tour of Poland* Sunday 2 August - Saturday 8 August

Kittel wins stage 1 from Caleb Ewan and Bonifazio. You'd have to imagine he will be very short indeed for Stage 2  »  Czestochowa  ›  Dabrowa Górnicza   (146k) which looks even flatter towards the finish

Here's a couple of pictures of Tinkoff's Rafal Majka winning 2014 Tour de Poland

Great we've got a thread for this race, there should be some nice wagering options and excellent racing. I like this race, it's one of the oldest stage races in the world, however only over the past few years has it been developed into the strong week-long stage race affair it was initially organised to be way back in 1928, and it really reached it's promise again, with Polish hero Majka winning last year, soon after his impressive exploits in the Tour.

Firstly, not even going to begin to oppose Nieve at that price -- of course the ITT will be important but at that price he is well worth a small punt on an E/W basis. Nevertheless, if we use last year's stages and results against this year's stages alongside the evidence of the Flowerman being installed as a standout 5/2 favourite, it becomes apparent that the race suits the versatile puncheur more than an outright climber like Aru, for instance, who would be a short-priced favourite if the parcours were to be identical to last year. Polish hero Majka won last year by riding and winning on the mountain climbs, and consolidating his advantage into the final stage by hanging tough in the ITT, however not only are there no mountaintop finishes which open the big GC time gaps for climbers, the ITT remains.

* Michal 'Flowerman' Kwiatkowski His best result here on GC was way back in 2012 when he finished 2nd to Moreno Moser by some 5 secs, and where essentially the only mountain stage was won the versatile puncheur/sprinters, essentially a similar parcours to this year. The Flowerman abandoned the Tour in stage 17, and was disappointed to have done so in the WC jersey, however for a rider who has been heavily over-raced in the past, this may have been a blessing in disguise as it gave him some extra time to freshen up for his home race. Certainly he is a much better rider than he was in 2012, and with a suitable parcours and riding in the WC jersey, this looks like an ideal opportunity, which appears to have been long in the planning, for the organisers to have back-to-back Polish winners, and it appears like this race is the Flowerman's to lose -- by all reports he appears motivated, but 5/2 or better is a fair price to get involved at this early point. Makes strong appeal. The one to beat.

The most compelling case is the price discrepancy between Moser and Kwiatkowski at 150/1 to 5/2, respectively. Excellent opening stage by Kittel, once he got the sit behind his teammate it was nailed on, but Ewen got closer than I expected.

Good luck to all,
SP

Pelucchi is no mug in the sprint, but doesn't win often and hasn't fulfilled his promise. Kittel gets second from Nizzolo, in stage 2.

Pelucchi gets his second win a row when a narrow gap opens and he stamps down his strength and form, positive signs that he can back-up like that since he hasn't really done that before. Stage 4 has a cat.1 climb at 40kms from the finish, so the sprinters might not get back on, especially if the break needs to be closed and the selection pushes the pace.

nugget • May 15, 2015 4:39 AM BST
"Gun leadout from Henderson, delivered Greipel just at the right time.  With the very flat and uncomplicated run-in to the finish Greipel would have been feeling the pressure if he didn't win this sprint but his team got it right a and he did the job, quite easy.  Pelucchi in 2nd for a good result.  A rider with a high top end who likes a flat high speed sprint. Could of gone closer or even challenged had he not lost his lead-out man's wheel in the finale, coming from miles back in the final km to lose by half a bike length, just needed to be a bit closer."

Those that were watching earlier in the year and at the the Giro know Pelucchi is very quick.  When he wins he generally only hits the front in the final 50m so timing his sprint is key. It's amazing what a bit of confidence can do for a rider.

Stage 4 is a tough one to call.  The climbs don't appear too hard but if SKY and Movistar decide to really push the pace it could put a lot of the sprinters into difficulty.  At 220km its a long stage too.

Kwiatkowski can set himself up for the overall win nicely if he can grab some bonus seconds today and tomorrow.  That way he wont be under too much pressure to follow the inevitable attacks on stage 6 where there is a decent amount of climbing where I expect him to be tested by the likes of Izagirre, Intxausti, Henao, Kyrienka, Formolo and Zakarin.  It also may pay to keep an eye on Aru to see what type of form he can build going into the the Vuelta.

I've taken Zakarin at 20/1 and Ulissi at 60/1 for the overall

3 out front with 16km to go have 2:22. Orica leading the chase for Ewan but I've taken Nizzolo and Modolo at 7/1 each.

FDJ are working, hope its for Kevin Reza

Not many sprinters missing from the main bunch, Bonifazio and Kittel two to miss out.

Another one of these days when the break wins because teams like Trek won't help with the chase

yep

Rider wearing bib number 1 not listed wins

In the past stages that have had the same finish as tomorrows stage have finished in reduced bunch sprints with no time gaps

Sprinter teams should of stopped chasing earlier and make the lazy gc teams chase

Ewan is in fine fettle, but I'm not sure he is the kind of rider who would scare off contributors joining OGE because he is so good without Kittel being involved (since Kittel didn't make it back on because of the climb) that it would be nailed on and they'd be contributing for second place. Nevertheless, with OGE putting in all the work regardless, showed how confident they were with Ewan, and indeed the other teams lost out for fourth to him, so perhaps they were right not to help? Ewan getting close to Kittel the way he did on the first stage is no mean feat -- he is flying!

Well, stage 5 is the queen stage, and whilst the final circuit course cat.1 climb looks a little hard for the Flowerman, the descent and finale gives him an opportunity to come back into contention or even attack. Not sure EQS have the firepower to control the race, and MOV are likely to play their hand, so probably giving the Flowerman free reign to get into a break might be the best option, but highly unlikely. If there was more liquidity I'd be laying off the 5/2 into a 7/5 trade for a free bet, but nothing's really changed except the price which is very short, taking into account that this is where the race was always going to be run going into the final three stages. So far the racing has been pretty average, whilst the Tour of Denmark has been very exciting, so it'll be interesting to see how the race shapes up today and tomorrow ahead of the ITT.

Good luck to all,
SP

I've taken Battaglin @ 50's , McCarthy @ 40's and Gasparotto @ 20's in Denmark for stage 3.  Boom has looked very sharp so far, he did look to be value at 17's for this stage but I think covering moves and defending the leaders jersey might take it out of him.  I took Fuglsang for the overall @ 16's, although he'll probably be riding for Boom and I've also spec'd De Bie and McCarthy at big odds for the overall.

Thought Fuglsang might of used up all his bad luck when he crashed going uphill at the tour, apparently not.

blah, get the WT race on ffs

Saxo smash it in Denmark, they get the stage win and wrap up the gc.

Aru riding the whole climb on the front

In 2nd gear

Aru, Formolo, Henao and Reichenbach looked to be the strongest climbers

Zakarin would have a good chance if hes in reasonable contact going in to the ITT

Yeah. Him and Ion Izagirre are the best TT'ers out of the leading group. Both struggled on the last climb with 12km to go, losing contact with the leaders.  Zakarin was dropped completely and soloed his way back to the leaders on the decent/flat which was a really good effort.  I agree he will have a good chance if he can keep it close going into the ITT but there is a fair bit of climbing tomorrow.

I'm on Zakarin at 20's but I'm not super confident after todays ride. I'd say its evenly poised with any 1 of 12 riders still with a good chance to win the overall.

Didn't have a bet today, but had Nieve for the GC. Thought he might make some time today with his late attack but no such luck. Here's Stage 6.

Well, looks like the Books got it wrong with respect to the parcours -- those climbs looked much tougher than on the face of it on the profile, and this race is coming hard in the favour of the outright climbers that can put in a strong TT.

Nice to have MC's Nieve E/W saver, however if today's stage was any indication at the difficulty of tomorrow's stage than I think only a really talented pure climber can be there at the end opening up the big time gaps on his GC rivals. On that basis, and taking into account AST's strength in driving the selection on stage 5, sending a strong signal of their intentions it looked like, I think Aru might ride well enough to take the ITT out of calculations, certainly he has the strength and talent to back up with a strong ride.

Good luck to all,
SP

Quite amusing that the Tour of Denmark have a rest day tomorrow

Two stages on tomorrow in Denmark.  Stage 4 (115km) and stage 5 (13.6km ITT).

The stage 4 will not be televised. The stage 5 ITT will be on after the tour of Poland stage.

Cracking win that. Nieve was really strong there but ultimately just set it up for Henao's attack.

Pity about Nieve, not every year you get a 300/1 pop with an actual podium chance, and it could very well have been Henao working for Nieve, however on that impressive performance it is clear that Henao was the strongest rider of the two. Aru gave it a go, but ultimately failed by attacking too early on the unfamiliar final climb, and then just didn't have enough in the tank to go again after Henao. He also attacked on the previous climb I believe, and looked like he could stretch the elastic until it snapped, but just didn't have that freshness even though Cataldo did so much work for him. Inexperience and wanting form let him down, and I think he let the team down, also.

Not sure now what's going to happen in the ITT. Probably Jon Izagirre is some chance, but the way Henao is riding he will be tough to beat. Jon Izagirre requires more than 14 secs, and I think he can get 12 secs if it goes to script, but Henao deserves favouritism and I'm willing to take a loss for the lessons learnt in this race. Primarily of which is that when I see rounded hills such as those on these Polish Tour profiles, I'm going to think mountains -- the person responsible should get fired -- absolute disgrace! Just shows what good information can do -- consider that if we had the profiles they zoom in on IR, riders like the Flowerman were lays all day long!

Jon Izaguirre (best price 7/1 on here) gets the GC win, but only narrowly from de Clerq in 2nd, and Hermans for 3rd. De Clerq was unfairly under-rated going into this ITT and he almost stole it, so it just goes to show how important it is to observe present form in a race. Anyway, my loss on this race is the price of admission for a lesson learnt on misleading stage profiles. As I intimated previously, if there's a way to look beyond such shockingly bad stage profiles, there is a massive advantage to be had, even over the Books, whom had absolutely no clue about the parcours.

Long live the Tour de Pologne!

I was thinking exactly the same myself. Races like this are potentially very profitable because of the lack of information. I didn't have time to give more than a cursory glance at the race but a bit of time spent going over the course and looking at google streetview could well pay dividends in future.