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Stage 21 » Sèvres › Paris (109.5k)
The famous and traditional procession to the Avenue des Champs-Élysées. Taking the stage on the Champs-Élysées is one of the most sought-after prizes in cycling and the sprinters who have suffered for the most of the last few weeks will be savouring the chance to take a final win.
We start in Sèvres, just on the Eastern outskirts of Paris and the route meanders around, following the Seine and going through Longchamp before hitting the famous circuit.
The 7.4km circuit is taken 10 times in total. Positioning is crucuial on the run-in and leadouts will be critical. All the sprinters teams have lost riders with the exception of Europcar and Coquard. He looked like he was in good shape before dropping a chain on Stage 15. Greipel has shown himself to be fastest in 3 of the 4 bunch sprints. Cav won the other and Degenkolb looked like his train is starting to work when he finished 2nd to Grepiel in Valence. Two sprinters who have largely failed and will be looking to turn things round are Kristoff and Demare. It has been a long time since this last stage has been won by a break and I can't see it happening with so many hungry sprinters in the field.
The famous and traditional procession to the Avenue des Champs-Élysées. Taking the stage on the Champs-Élysées is one of the most sought-after prizes in cycling and the sprinters who have suffered for the most of the last few weeks will be savouring the chance to take a final win.
We start in Sèvres, just on the Eastern outskirts of Paris and the route meanders around, following the Seine and going through Longchamp before hitting the famous circuit.
The 7.4km circuit is taken 10 times in total. Positioning is crucuial on the run-in and leadouts will be critical. All the sprinters teams have lost riders with the exception of Europcar and Coquard. He looked like he was in good shape before dropping a chain on Stage 15. Greipel has shown himself to be fastest in 3 of the 4 bunch sprints. Cav won the other and Degenkolb looked like his train is starting to work when he finished 2nd to Grepiel in Valence. Two sprinters who have largely failed and will be looking to turn things round are Kristoff and Demare. It has been a long time since this last stage has been won by a break and I can't see it happening with so many hungry sprinters in the field.
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crosswind!
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Possibility of Rain ?
Can Sagan possibly finnish off with a win ? |
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Lads and PP up cav 3-1 with PP looks big only 7-4 with lads
 13-2 peter with Lads 5 with PP |
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The Manx Missile does enjoy the big stage, and when following wheels he does seem to recapture his best. I therefore think these two factors might cause a shortening in his price at some point, so I'm in for a small trade whilst I go over the previous sprint results, which admittedly are not going to tell me more than what the IR pics and pre-stage reactions might reveal.
A lot of it just comes down to how the sprinters feel after all that climbing -- which rider feels like his legs are somewhat soured and which rider feels like he is likely to find the good sensations because his legs feel fine. For instance, if the Manx feels like he is in fair shape than he does have that second kick and a brilliant record on this fine stretch of road for our sport. |
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The Raver gets his tyre or a small bit of it to break the pixels
 Save Cav and a few other other faireytales ,has anyone ever won from a break on the Champs ? |
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Vino in 2005 won from a break.
Four wins straight for the Manx Missile between 2009 and 2012, and the last two have been won by Kittel. The Raver has a poor career record on the Yellow Brick Road, going: 9/4/2. |
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Bit of a shame that this final stage has become a procession + sprint. Would/should it still be the case if the difference between the top two was a couple of seconds?
LeMond v Fignon in that last day time trial was brilliant. A far more exciting ending. Would be nice to mix it up a bit again. |
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I think Cav should be favourite here. He rates a decent bet at 9/4. I'm also backing Degenkolb at 11/1 each way and a little bit on Navardauskas at 100/1.
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The two fastest men are Cav and Greipel, but the prices should be the other way round.
Greipel 13/8 Won 3 out of 4 sprints so far. Won the first two fair and square. However, in the second Cav realised he could win if he got onto Greipel's wheel. He didn't manage it in the second sprint but by the third sprint he had nailed it and won. Greipel won the 4th bunch sprint as well, but as Cav was ill and had been dropped on the first climb it's hard to read too much into it. Would Cav have won again if he'd been there? Who's to say. Greipel is without his main leadout man in Henderson. He also has a relatively poor record on the Champs Elysees and apparently has an sore right knee. AVOID Cav 9/4 failed badly in the first sprint and seemed to be on the premises much too early. In the second sprint he decided to leave Renshaw's wheel and try to get onto Greipel's. This didn't work. It's unlike Cav to be out-thought and out-fought in the bunch. By the third sprint he had nailed his tactics, getting into the Gorilla's wheel and winning. Cav is proven on the Champs having won 4 times. He doesn't have his full leadout either with the key men Martin, Kwiatowski and Renshaw all missing. He will have to rely on Trentin and Stybar, but I imagine in the finale Cav will get on the wheel of Kristoff who will go long. OVERPRICED - WORTH A BET. Kristoff 8/1 no Paolini but has Guarnieri who can be relied upon. Almost held off Kittel last year but the main concern for Kristoff is that he has not been in great form at all. Even on stage 15 where he still had two men and no-one else had any he could only manage 3rd. He is probably the hardest of all the sprinters and often gets stronger as everyone around falters. UNLIKELY TO BE THE FASTEST BUT WILL BE ON THE PREMISES. Sagan 6/1 has achieved what he came here for and knows he can't win against these guys. Far too short as well. It wouldn't surprise me if he didn't even contest this sprint. PLACE LAY - DON'T TOUCH Degenkolb 11/1 Would ideally like an uphill finish but suited by the cobbles and looked fast when he came second to Greipel on stage 15. No Sinkeldam or Dumoulin but Giant have had a brilliant Tour, and their train are experts at the late ambush. They will get him to the front and he will be on the premises. NAILED ON TOP 4, LIKELY TOP 3. WORTH AN EACH WAY BET. Coquard 40/1 has a chance of a top 3 as well, Europcar have a full team and a place would be a great result for them. PLACE PROSPECT. Demare 25/1 has not had a good tour, and whilst he would love a podium here in reality he will be lucky to improve on Stage 7's 6th place finish. UNLIKELY TO PLACE. Matthews 66/1 has recovered from illness but is not quite quick enough to challenge the fastest guys here. UNLIKELY TO PLACE. Navardauskas 100/1 if all the sprinters teams look at each other he is one man who could go for a long one and be the first man since Vinoukorouv to win solo. Or he can surprise the fast men in a bunch too, like he did last year when he finished 3rd. SMALL E/W PLAY. |
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Watching the womens race and half the field has crashed. Could be significant changes in the mens race if it continues raining.
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Agree with most of that m1 apart from the Sagan bit.I know he has a knack of finding a way to lose sprints but on a couple of ocassions this tour he has been finishing fastest of all and would have won one of them in another 20 metres.A small bet on Sagan for me but any of the top 5 in the betting for this one.
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Reckon Madiot was doing this yesterday?
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Just watching La Course by the Tour de France. Not had a bet although I wish I'd had a tickle on Fanny Riberot
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Crash galore in the womens race. Whats the weather forecast for later on anyone ?
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Rain for the whole of the race. Due to p*ss down by the end of the womens race.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/fr/paris/623/minute-weather-forecast/623 |
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Wet
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well that certainly might improve the drama. Possible breakaways. Froome to adopt american football style shoulder pads to protect the collarbone
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What an incredible ride
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Well, that's an interesting approach MC.
 From experience, offering such specific bet suggestions can really hurt your confidence when performances go against the data as they often do. I mean, I certainly feel not only the personal financial hit to my bank when I get it wrong, but also the loss of disappointment of those that might have used my suggestions to make their wagering selections, and it's therefore a double burden that can hurt the confidence.Anyway, always love the homecoming of this World Championship for Sprinters, however I understand the sadness people feel as the stage signifies the end of such a great three weeks on the calendar for the cycling fan. I agree with the understanding that the prices between the Gorilla and the Manxman should be the other way around. The Books, particularly PP, whom have been the first up with their prices for much of the Tour and indeed this one, have essentially framed this market on Tour form and not historical record on the Champs. Normally, that it is the proper professional approach and I can see why the Books have gone this way. However, Tour or current form for such a market only has a strong bearing when the sprint stages are consecutive. Here and now, after all the difficulties of the Alp stages for the sprinters, they are essentially starting on a clean slate or clean sheet, free from the prejudice of previous performances as the hard riding/climbing would have affected them all significantly. Nevertheless, the Gorilla's knee injury was already an issue prior to his stage 15 win, so unless it has worsened since then, and I am not aware it has, it shouldn't be a major factor in deciding the strength of his finish. I still think the Gorilla is in career-best form in the sprints, however from purely a historical basis and value, the Manx Missile is most attractive for my outright bet, although I am taking him on trust. Following the same historical approach, Kristoff's performance last year was memorable, and on best form I think he can go one better to win, today. E/W. Good luck to all, SP |
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Maybe something like what happened in the last stage of the giro can happen, Durbridge to go one better this time. Had a few random bets on Dennis, Brandle, Vanmarcke, Van Barle, Oss. I think the rain could make it a lottery.
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The last six years the best sprinter in the race has won on the champs-elysees, you would think Greipel would be keen to do the same here. He was narrowly beaten by Kittel in 2013 in a photo finish that had Kittel, Greipel and Cavendish finishing within half a wheel of each other. I think he is the rightful favourite but can't be confident backing him here in the slippery conditions.
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Lots of the sprinters teams are missing riders which could make it less crowded and actually be easier for Greipel and Cav to take a up a good position. However less firepower might make it harder to control the late moves and any crash on the final few corners could favour riders off the front of the peleton.
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I've done Oss and Vanmarcke as well, and Rowe.
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The time for the final stage will be taken on the first pass of the finish line with 65km to go. Anyone who crashes after that will be given the same time as the front group.
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Good I've taken Contador to beat Quintana and Nibali to beat Valverde in head to head bets, the Movistar riders won't want to crash and hurt themselves for the podium ceremony.
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Froomes biggest problem this tour....... deciding what to wear
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whatever goes well with yellow
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looks like he's gone with the stylish yellow on yellow today
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G'day gents,
Wet one to finish looks like -- forecasters finally got one right. 7/2 for the Manxman was surprising. Now solid at 3/1+. Doesn't look like I'm going to hit this Cav trade anytime soon. Okay, well, another great Tour, to be sure. -- Favourite stage was stage 8 on the Mur de Bratagne -- thought the way Vuillermoz won was quite stunning, he gets my best-in-class hardman rating, but only just from GVA in the stage 13 finish into Rodez when he pummelled Sagan, and a close third by the Panzerwagon reaching out over the cobbles and the longest stage of the race in stage 4 into Cambrai. -- Best confidence boost for rider goes to Geschke -- think he might go on with it next season in the Ardennes after that career-best win to solo to Pra Loup. It might give him the belief he hasn't had before. -- Exciting future GC prospect is obviously still Quintana, and I like the way Quintana closed out the race, narrowing the gap even though it was late, and gaining confidence in a team which has his best interests at heart. Jungels looks like the real deal, and it'll be interesting to see how he develops. -- Nice to see the Frenchmen winning. Bardet and Pinot adding to the win by Vuillermoz. -- European domination is nothing new, but good to see that we Australians jagged a stage win with Rohan Dennis in the opener. -- Interesting to see the old men fire again. Purito with two wins, but also Stephen Cummings and Ruben Plaza each won and they're all around their mid-30s. Vive Le Tour!  |
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Also, since the weather is disappointing, my disappointments are:
-- Mollema on GC. Really thought he might turn things around for himself and raise his level now that he has the right team devoted to him in TFR. 7th is fair enough, but over 15 mins back is pretty bad, down 5 mins to Gesink and only a few seconds better than Frank who is not a noted GC rider. -- Gallopin not winning a stage. -- Not backing Martin at ante-post in stage 4, Stybar stage 6, and GVA stage 13. |
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SKY's kit reminds me of that song...black and yellow, black and yellow, black and yellow, black and yellow...
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Has Mark 'Manx Missile' Cavendish lost a leg in the Alps?
 This price is outstanding! |
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Very poor spectacle for the once-a-year viewers, this. Why not cut to 3 laps if nobody is going to try to break?
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That road looks to be drying out, yes?
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Who was that excellent TT rider representing GBR a couple of years ago?
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Dowsett?
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Millar?
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Cheers MC -- found him, it was David Millar, I remember seeing him in 2013 I think it was, on the Champs, smashing an amazing average speed out in front by himself, in what seemed like forever, and the peloton eventually brought him back, and from that day I realized that I probably will never witness a breakaway winning on the Champs, let alone some 40kms out like these three are trying. It is impossible, imho. Would require the laziest most tired and inattentive peloton, ever.
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Cheers CJ -- spot on!
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