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TdF stage 18

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Replies: 85
By:
SwingingPick
When: 23 Jul 15 17:30
Just to go back to razz's question which CJ answered to some extent. I initially thought Quintana will attack as we get into the Pyrenees since he had no other option, but that never really eventuated, and whilst he has tried his hand over the last few stages here-and-there, nothing has stuck nor really even looked promising.

I wonder now with the way MOV have handled Quintana, in very much a long-term family-orientated outlook, whether they really get anything by pushing Quintana into an attack on these next two mountaintop-finishing stages. 1.) Froome looks indestructible. 2.) Quintana is too far back, now. 3.) MOV risk putting a hole in Quintana's confidence at such a young age, for no real gain.

MOV's only real tactic was to give Froome a hard ride, grind him down bit-by-bit, and they haven't been capable of doing that, so why put all their chips into the one -- short-term -- basket and risk hurting Quintana, when another second-place finish is an excellent result for a future multiple GT winner.

Having said all that, the big difference of the next two final Alp stages, which have mountaintop finishes, is just their short length. At 138kms and 111kms respectively, Prudhomme has invited both long-range and GC attacking riding. However, whether we see that is another thing at these present time gaps, and Froome can manage anything here at these distances. Moreover, I never saw weakness from Froome in 2013, he didn't have a bad day like some GC riders are known for having during a GT. On stage 20 he looked to give the win to Quintana, nevertheless he lost only about 30 secs from his 5+min lead.

The only discrepancy is that in 2013, Froome had three stage wins whilst this year he has only got the one win. Since SKY have been consistent to not push on the descents over these last two stages, and with two stages finishing on the mountain next, I think Froome will be the rider to want these prestigious victories, and whilst he will get attacked he can answer them all and still fight for stage glory.

By greening out over taking insurance, you are suggesting that not only will Froome crash out, but both of the next two MOV riders will not finish the race, also. What's the point of having G in green, when all that is required is to write your own ticket for Bertie?

Insurance is always advisable at 30% of the potential win, however I think it might be much less than that by covering riders in the GC individually rather than greening out on a fantasy novel. Cool
By:
sixtwosix
When: 23 Jul 15 19:29
Not a hope of Quintana breaking Froome for 3 minutes tomorrow ..... that is if he can even beat him.

Saturday's finish on Alpe D'Huez is a visual feast,  but is not likely to have any significant effort on the overall result.

It is tomorrow or never for Quintana , but does he look like he can go from 5 - 10 km from home and blow Froome away .....the answer is no.
By:
nugget
When: 24 Jul 15 02:30
The only fantasy novel here is the rubbish that swingingpick posts. Cool
By:
casemoney
When: 24 Jul 15 03:49
WAS out all day watched the Highlights Does anyone do combination forecasts Happy

Bauke Mollema    *    134.02    8.00    Back         -8.00
Dani Navarro    100.41    7.00    Back    22-Jul-15 23:29    -7.00
Nairo Quintana    *    81.99    10.00    Back         -10.00
Peter Sagan    44.49    12.00    Back    22-Jul-15 22:52    -12.00
Pierre Rolland    25.30    25.00    Back    22-Jul-15 23:25    -25.00
Richie Porte    *    150.00    5.00    Back         -5.00
Romain Bardet    *    23.15    27.00    Back         598.0


I did leave lays of an even oner in for all ,after timer of the year Laugh
By:
jumper
When: 24 Jul 15 07:02
Hi

Can anyone tell me what price Bardet was broadly for Thursday's stage, on here

Thanks
By:
SwingingPick
When: 24 Jul 15 08:28
Bardet was 17/1 at SP and was being matched at 15/1 on approaching the top of the big climb prior to the long descent.
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