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Stage 15 » Mende › Valence (183k)
Sprint finish in Valence?
Today's 183km stage from Mende to Valence has 4 categorised climbs but could end in some sort of bunch sprint, which should please those who love a good bunch sprint and who have been largely starved during this Tour. The first climb of the day is the Cat 3 Cote du Badaroux which is 4.6km @ 5.1%. This climb comes almost immediately so should ensure the break gets away very early. There are two Cat 4 climbs at around 70km, the Col du Bez which is 2.6km @ 4% followed immediately by the Col de Croix de Bauzon. There then follows a long descent to the immediate sprint at Aubenas. We then have the hardest climb of the day, the Cat 2 climb of Col de l'Escrinet. This is 7.9km @5.9%.
There are 57kms left to the finish in Valence when they crest this climb and the key to this stage is whether the climb and descent is taken quickly enough to drop the sprinters. If Cavendish and Greipel can get over this climb in the peloton or get back on they will be very short to win the stage. Cavendish did surprise everyone to get over this climb and win a stage in Aubenas in 2009, and although the climb that day was a lot closer to the finish that day it was also taking it from the much easier side. This is a lot harder from this side. In my eyes sprinters will be dropped if the pace is at all high. It's all about whether they can get back on again.
This is the first time Valence has ever been a stage finish town. Valence is in the Drone department, in the Rhones-Alpes region. The riders will be able to see the rather intimidating sight of the Alps on the horizon during this stage. The last kms today are relatively straightforward. The run-in and the finish itself are very flat. There are a couple of roundabouts in the last 4kms, and a big left hand turn at 3km but after that there is nothing to worry about and this should be very fast. The flamme rouge is on Boulevard John Fitzgerald Kennedy then the riders bear right onto Avenue de Romans. The home straight is 7m wide. If his team can pace him back into the bunch after the Col de l'Escrinet I think this stage bears all the hallmarks of Mark Cavendish.
Sprint finish in Valence?
Today's 183km stage from Mende to Valence has 4 categorised climbs but could end in some sort of bunch sprint, which should please those who love a good bunch sprint and who have been largely starved during this Tour. The first climb of the day is the Cat 3 Cote du Badaroux which is 4.6km @ 5.1%. This climb comes almost immediately so should ensure the break gets away very early. There are two Cat 4 climbs at around 70km, the Col du Bez which is 2.6km @ 4% followed immediately by the Col de Croix de Bauzon. There then follows a long descent to the immediate sprint at Aubenas. We then have the hardest climb of the day, the Cat 2 climb of Col de l'Escrinet. This is 7.9km @5.9%.
There are 57kms left to the finish in Valence when they crest this climb and the key to this stage is whether the climb and descent is taken quickly enough to drop the sprinters. If Cavendish and Greipel can get over this climb in the peloton or get back on they will be very short to win the stage. Cavendish did surprise everyone to get over this climb and win a stage in Aubenas in 2009, and although the climb that day was a lot closer to the finish that day it was also taking it from the much easier side. This is a lot harder from this side. In my eyes sprinters will be dropped if the pace is at all high. It's all about whether they can get back on again.
This is the first time Valence has ever been a stage finish town. Valence is in the Drone department, in the Rhones-Alpes region. The riders will be able to see the rather intimidating sight of the Alps on the horizon during this stage. The last kms today are relatively straightforward. The run-in and the finish itself are very flat. There are a couple of roundabouts in the last 4kms, and a big left hand turn at 3km but after that there is nothing to worry about and this should be very fast. The flamme rouge is on Boulevard John Fitzgerald Kennedy then the riders bear right onto Avenue de Romans. The home straight is 7m wide. If his team can pace him back into the bunch after the Col de l'Escrinet I think this stage bears all the hallmarks of Mark Cavendish.
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Ettik one -two punch for me today.
I thought Cav would be shorter, 6-1 is huge
Kwitkowski is slowly but surely getting better. He will another go soon I'm sure.
These two for me
I thought Cav would be shorter, 6-1 is huge
Kwitkowski is slowly but surely getting better. He will another go soon I'm sure.
These two for me
I'm thinking Etixx might try to get someone in the break to avoid having to do a majority of the chasing. Taken Trentin at 40's.
If Giant and Etixx get a man in the break, it could have a good chance, Geschke maybe an option for TGA. Tinkoff might ride on the cat2 climb in an attempt to drop all the sprinters but I doubt it.
One last chance for Kristoff, hasn't looked too likely but the harder the better for him and he tends to be better in the 3rd week. 15.0.
If Giant and Etixx get a man in the break, it could have a good chance, Geschke maybe an option for TGA. Tinkoff might ride on the cat2 climb in an attempt to drop all the sprinters but I doubt it.
One last chance for Kristoff, hasn't looked too likely but the harder the better for him and he tends to be better in the 3rd week. 15.0.
Degenkolb 2.30 vs Sagan 1.60 in head-to-head betting.
Sagan surely has to be a little bit tired. Last realistic chance for a stage win for Degenkolb I reckon. Seems ok value.
Sagan surely has to be a little bit tired. Last realistic chance for a stage win for Degenkolb I reckon. Seems ok value.
Can't see a break sticking here unless they really push it hard over the climbs. I expect most of the field to be in tact and able to chase for the sprinters.
Yeah, you're probably right, the stage doesn't look that hard with 54km to the finish after the cat2 climb. Does anyone think Greipel will make it over with the bunch?
Degenkolb 2.3 vs Pete Sagan
Kristoff 1.6 vs Demare
Cavendish 1.45 vs Greipel
Matthews 2 vs Boasson Hagen
Thinking of taking this all-up, pays 10.67
Degenkolb 2.3 vs Pete Sagan
Kristoff 1.6 vs Demare
Cavendish 1.45 vs Greipel
Matthews 2 vs Boasson Hagen
Thinking of taking this all-up, pays 10.67
If any of the sprinters don't make it over they should get back on the descent unless someone is hammering the pace. After Sagan's results yesterday I can't see who would push it? Maybe MTN or OGE?
Maybe I'm not given enough respect to the climb but I'd say it would be just the Kittel's of the world that don't contend.
Maybe I'm not given enough respect to the climb but I'd say it would be just the Kittel's of the world that don't contend.
9 riders in front including Sagan, Kwiatkowski, Trentin, Geschke. 17 riders chasing, then the peleton being led by Katusha.
Thanks for the write up Marychain, agree with the Post so going for Kristoff today - cue a Sagan win 
Katusha keeping the gap at 1:50. At this rate it could be hard to control things after the cat2 climb.
KAT came out prior to the start, stating that they won't be contributing at the front of the peloton as they already have two stages and this stage is not their priority.
Plenty of opportunities here for winning bets, but would be best if the break stay away.
What was the point of Sagan and Co gaining some time, to now be back with the break?
The peloton are just keeping this gap manageable, but probably won't know what happens until after the cat.2 climb. The sprinter's teams minus EQS might just reform with their men and hammer for home with a tailwind, I believe. Everything so far is suggesting break, but it's too early to call.
The peloton are just keeping this gap manageable, but probably won't know what happens until after the cat.2 climb. The sprinter's teams minus EQS might just reform with their men and hammer for home with a tailwind, I believe. Everything so far is suggesting break, but it's too early to call.
Just to confirm, both Demare and Cavendish in the early autobus with absolutely no chance of being involved in proceedings. The other sprinters are still in the peloton, such as Greipel, Kristoff and Degenkolb.
Laying Sagan might be a good option at this point, for a trade.
1.) He'll be hit on the cat.2 by Rogers and Pinot.
2.) The peloton may reform for the sprinters after the cat.2 and smash the 57kms for a bunch sprint.
3.) Isn't that comfortable with tempo ridding in a group on the climbs and may struggle.
1.) He'll be hit on the cat.2 by Rogers and Pinot.
2.) The peloton may reform for the sprinters after the cat.2 and smash the 57kms for a bunch sprint.
3.) Isn't that comfortable with tempo ridding in a group on the climbs and may struggle.
KAT for Kristoff are keen since Cav is not in the peloton -- plans change on the road in such a fluid and dynamic sport, I guess.
SwingingPick • July 19, 2015 2:20 PM BST
KAT for Kristoff are keen since Cav is not in the peloton -- plans change on the road in such a fluid and dynamic sport, I guess.
Katusha are keen because Kristoff is fast and they have no rider for the GC to worry about. Nothing to do with Cav.
Lars Bak for Lotto-Soudal hasn't taken a turn in the breakaway yet so I assume Greipel is still in the peleton.
KAT for Kristoff are keen since Cav is not in the peloton -- plans change on the road in such a fluid and dynamic sport, I guess.
Katusha are keen because Kristoff is fast and they have no rider for the GC to worry about. Nothing to do with Cav.
Lars Bak for Lotto-Soudal hasn't taken a turn in the breakaway yet so I assume Greipel is still in the peleton.
Oh, and the market might be aware that Trentin beat Sagan into Nancy stage 7 of the Tour, last year.
Tailed out after 10kms due to pace and difficulty of the climbing. 
Obviously Sagan won't be hit by Rogers, but Rogers will look to close down a likely attack by Pinot on the cat.2 and Sagan may become isolated from his teammate.
Not sure how reliable this is but apparently Uran is in the Cav group. That's some resting up if true..
Gap down significantly -- the peloton are cruising along at about 47km/h average, so depending on how the sprinter's teams fair after the cat.2, they should be able to cover the break in 57kms, I think.
If Sagan loses time on the climb he will probably make it back on the descent. Don't know how much energy he will have left after his efforts in previous stages.
Peleton need to drop Greipel.
Peleton need to drop Greipel.
Interesting to note that KAT are not blowing up the peloton on this climb -- they know they'll need LTS support on the front to bring the break back, and if they do end up contributing than they'll telegraph what they think of a Bak to the future sequel. They're only going as fast as Kristoff can handle, it should be said.
I guess Bak not contributing in the breakaway tells you what Lotto's plan A is.
Don't think the peloton have lost anyone, have they?
Climb to far from the finish for anyone to attack from the breakaway, obviously.
Pinot goes over the climb in first place -- what a bum!
Trenting goes, and Rogers plays scout for Sagan and follows -- looks like Sagan follows as well -- he might empty for no gain -- not smart Peter "Raving" Sagan.
laid sagan at 3, greipel at 4, kristioff at 4,6, degenkolb at 7,4 and trentin 8. cant be a disaster now
Is Trentin doing this for WC, surely this cannot work for him?
That Sagan lay trade dom888 inferred has worked out -- now into 8/1 with good liquidity!
What on earth was Tinkoff staffer doing? Just threw a bottle at the camera for filming Sagan changing bikes.
Wonder if they'll be x-raying Tinkoff bikes tonight?
Wonder if they'll be x-raying Tinkoff bikes tonight?
It's a bad look, isn't it, I don't know why he thought he needed to do that, bad manners, not in the spirit of the sport, more ugly stuff at the Tour. 
Oh dear looks like Sagan kicked the cameraman/bike as well. What on earth was all that about?
He's pis*ed because he's going to have to get in a couple more breakaways now to secure the green jersey.
Gorilla -- the fastest finisher in the race without the Manx Missile present, been leaving it late and finishing fast -- clearly in career-best form, also the most successful sprinter with two stage wins (2 + 5), however he got three stitches from yesterday. Probably not a major factor, really.
Probably got too close, Raving had a dummy-spit to the team car, and this has been the resulting after-effects. We just ugliness, though.
YES silly odds for sagan
even when the 9 men group would lead now by a few minutes.
the other 8 would start to attack because they know they would only
have little chance in a sprint vs sagan
even when the 9 men group would lead now by a few minutes.
the other 8 would start to attack because they know they would only
have little chance in a sprint vs sagan
LTS and KAT feeding riders into a EUC train. Coquard is a young rider from the track who gives a rider like the Gorilla about 10kgs, however he is a nimble little guy, and got two stage wins in the Route du Sud.
I think you're right dom about the attacks but I actually think Trentin would of beaten Sagan in a sprint. He did last year on stage 7.
rondabout at 300m, probably going to need to be in the first 4-5 riders out of that. A team with numbers could stack the field up going through there.
rondabout at 300m, probably going to need to be in the first 4-5 riders out of that. A team with numbers could stack the field up going through there.
Kristoff was doing well during the season starting in 3 Days of De Panne, where he got three wins in a row and the GC, then won Flanders and Scheldeprijs -- he'll be looking to find that form in this sprint as he hasn't done all that much here thus far.
KAT have been active so they are feeling good about Kristoff's chances, however I think the Gorilla is the one to beat!
I'll go Greipel. Wouldn't surprise me to see Degenkolb do a bit better today as well.
This is one of two chances for the sprinters in the final 14 stages of the race and Cav gets dropped in the first 5km.
That was a bloody hard run in - nothing like the profile in the road book. All the lead outs got decimated except for Katusha who managed to keep a couple of men until the end.
pre-post
Cavendish 6.0
Greipel 11.0
wtf
Hope Cav makes the time cut. Would ruin the prices for the last stage otherwise.
Cavendish 6.0
Greipel 11.0
wtf
Hope Cav makes the time cut. Would ruin the prices for the last stage otherwise.
The last few kms it looked like they were riding through treacle
Watching the Green Jersey comp here now -- Sagan might get a call against hime here, and with no points and all points for Greipel it might be game on!
Superb sprint from Greipel there. I thought he had got to the front too early but he just had far too much power for everyone else.
Be interesting if Sagan gets a points deduction - although I can't see it, more likely a cash fine. The intermediate sprint is fascinatingly placed tomorrow - will a break get away at all before the sprint? Sagan could potentially also contend for the stage too.
Greipel was still at 8.0's going over the climb
Lotto-Soudal was at the front for maybe 500m of the whole race. Perfect tactics.
Greipel is definitely the Kittel of this years tour. Just on another level than all the other sprinters.
Lotto-Soudal was at the front for maybe 500m of the whole race. Perfect tactics.
Greipel is definitely the Kittel of this years tour. Just on another level than all the other sprinters.
He's been doing every time MC, going early and going fast, only the Manx Missile worked him out in stage 7.
They're so bloody inconsistent and usually weak with that kind of crap -- should be points every time! So frustrating!
I was just talking about the weight difference to Coquard -- he was lucky there, but it looks like his chain was the major factor -- looks like it dropped.
Sagan would probably be better of with a break going tomorrow instead of Greipel gaining max points, would be nice if could make it over the final climb, though I doubt it
Could be a chance of Sagan being docked green jersey points after the altercation with a cameraman? Layed a bit for fun.
nugget • July 19, 2015 2:26 PM BST
Lars Bak for Lotto-Soudal hasn't taken a turn in the breakaway yet so I assume Greipel is still in the peleton.
nugget • July 19, 2015 2:57 PM BST
I guess Bak not contributing in the breakaway tells you what Lotto's plan A is.
Hope people were able to find the winner at at decent price. Lots of unnecessary posts in here at times makes it a longer read than it should be.
Lars Bak for Lotto-Soudal hasn't taken a turn in the breakaway yet so I assume Greipel is still in the peleton.
nugget • July 19, 2015 2:57 PM BST
I guess Bak not contributing in the breakaway tells you what Lotto's plan A is.
Hope people were able to find the winner at at decent price. Lots of unnecessary posts in here at times makes it a longer read than it should be.
Jul 19, 2015 -- 10:31AM, bb66 wrote:
Sagan would probably be better of with a break going tomorrow instead of Greipel gaining max points, would be nice if could make it over the final climb, though I doubt it
I think Sagan will go in the break to get intermediate sprint points. Greipel will probably get in the break too. Rodriguez is a good chance to be in the break. Kwiatkowski is more active and seems to be getting better. If the break stays away Sagan would have some chance for the stage. I wonder if Movistar might chase for Valverde or Orica for Matthews.
Tomorrow's stage
Nibali 11/1
Dan Martin 12/1
Rodriguez 14/1
Valverde 16/1
Kelderman 16/1
Hesjedal 22/1
Sagan 22/1
Nibali 11/1
Dan Martin 12/1
Rodriguez 14/1
Valverde 16/1
Kelderman 16/1
Hesjedal 22/1
Sagan 22/1
nugget • July 19, 2015 4:35 PM BST
.....Lots of unnecessary posts in here at times makes it a longer read than it should be.
Sorry, that was uncalled for. I was really only referring to SwingingPick's posts.
.....Lots of unnecessary posts in here at times makes it a longer read than it should be.
Sorry, that was uncalled for. I was really only referring to SwingingPick's posts.
ah yes Chava. Wonder if Pierrick might fancy this one at 66/1. I think OGE might chase this one for Bling but they are short on numbers.
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