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Stage 13 » Muret › Rodez (198.5k)
We start three days of transitional stages as we pass from the Pyrenees to the Alps. Breakaway specialists will have earmarked these stages but with few large climbs overall the punchers will also believe this day's stage could suit them, but to get victory they will have to chase what could be a large group. There is also a very sharp ramp right at the end of the stage that will definitely rule any sprinters out of contention.
The start town of Muret is just to the South West of Toulouse, although it declined to be officially classed as part of Greater Toulouse. We go through Tarn as the peloton makes its way North East towards Rodez. We pass close to the towns of Castres and Albi but the first half of this stage is very flat. The second half of the stage is a lot more lumpy. There are three categorised climbs as well as a number of other uncategorised climbs. It could be one of the uncategorised climbs that actually makes the winning selection on this stage.
The three categorised climbs are the Cote du Saint-Cirgue (Cat 3, 3.8km @ 5.8% with 67km remaining), Cote de la Pomparie (Cat 4, 2.8km @ 5% with 42km remaining) and the Cote de la Selve (Cat 4, 3.9km @ 3.7% with 21km remaining). None of these climbs by themselves would rule the sprinters out of contention. However, there is also an uncategorised lump that the peloton will have to tackle with 14km to go. This climb will be important in deciding the stage winner because it provides a place for a late attack, and most of the remainder of the stage is downhill into Rodez. Any rider who gets even a small gap going over the final climb will have the chance to hold chasers at bay, especially if the wind is favourable. There is then the final kick at the end which is called the Cote Saint-Pierre and is 570m @ 9.6%. Even a climb this short is too hard for sprinters so punchy type riders should prevail if the break does not make it. The last time a stage finished in Rodez was in 1984 when Pierre-henri Menthéour triumphed.
We start three days of transitional stages as we pass from the Pyrenees to the Alps. Breakaway specialists will have earmarked these stages but with few large climbs overall the punchers will also believe this day's stage could suit them, but to get victory they will have to chase what could be a large group. There is also a very sharp ramp right at the end of the stage that will definitely rule any sprinters out of contention.
The start town of Muret is just to the South West of Toulouse, although it declined to be officially classed as part of Greater Toulouse. We go through Tarn as the peloton makes its way North East towards Rodez. We pass close to the towns of Castres and Albi but the first half of this stage is very flat. The second half of the stage is a lot more lumpy. There are three categorised climbs as well as a number of other uncategorised climbs. It could be one of the uncategorised climbs that actually makes the winning selection on this stage.
The three categorised climbs are the Cote du Saint-Cirgue (Cat 3, 3.8km @ 5.8% with 67km remaining), Cote de la Pomparie (Cat 4, 2.8km @ 5% with 42km remaining) and the Cote de la Selve (Cat 4, 3.9km @ 3.7% with 21km remaining). None of these climbs by themselves would rule the sprinters out of contention. However, there is also an uncategorised lump that the peloton will have to tackle with 14km to go. This climb will be important in deciding the stage winner because it provides a place for a late attack, and most of the remainder of the stage is downhill into Rodez. Any rider who gets even a small gap going over the final climb will have the chance to hold chasers at bay, especially if the wind is favourable. There is then the final kick at the end which is called the Cote Saint-Pierre and is 570m @ 9.6%. Even a climb this short is too hard for sprinters so punchy type riders should prevail if the break does not make it. The last time a stage finished in Rodez was in 1984 when Pierre-henri Menthéour triumphed.
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Yes MC, I think that final uncategorised climb looks like a perfect staging point for a late attack. It hits the highest elevation of any part of the road on this stage at 692m, however the La Primaube appears that it is closer to 10kms from the finish than 14kms. Its gradient appears like the first cat.3 on the stage, so therefore I would suggest it is probably about 4kms at about 5.75%, making it a selective climb, indeed. Then the downhill might be a power-descent with a steep section to the line as you show, and perhaps putting it in favour of a punchy-type rider. Looks like a cracking classics-style stage finish into Rodez.
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...Judging by the 1984 finish pic you've included, I hope we get a bar-room brawl into a wide boulevard road with about half-a-dozen bruising candidates hitting each other continuously.
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Peter Sagan layers when favourite for a stage have had a decent run since stage 7 2013. Can the green monster deliver this time?
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Really difficult stage to work out here. There is no obvious climb where the break goes here before the intermediate sprint at 90kms. If/when the break does go it's hard to see who chases the break. Can't see Tinkoff chasing so Sagan might have to try and get in the break to win the stage. The final ramp suits someone like Sagan and there is no way the other sprinters are winning. I think it might pay to back riders from the break when it goes.
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i think Kristoff is excellent value in this stage @ 40/1 PP
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Yeah I think you've summed this up well mc. Today's stage looks open to a wide array of riders and it might take longer for the breakaway to form as lots of riders will want to get in the break.
Sagan will need points out of this stage if he wants the green jersey so it will be interesting to see if Tinkoff chase or Sagan has to get in the break. Not sure Katusha will be bothered after getting the win yesterday although strongman Kristoff will give it a go if it comes back together but it's probably too steep for him. Giant you would think should chase for Degenkolb but could get a rider in the break. Etixx should chase if they don't get anyone in the break but will more likely go for the latter option. Would be a good one for GVA but BMC are unlikely to chase so he may have to go in the break. OGE could have plans for this one. Cannondale will probably miss the break. Gallopin seems to be concerning himself with the GC so Lotto-Soudal will probably look to get some riders in the break. This would be a perfect finish for Valverde but it seems Movistar have different ambitions. As mc pointed out it's a tough stage to call, a break looks likely but there would also be a lot of riders who would fancy their chances if it came back together before the finish. As for the route its easier than a classics course. 198.5km in length. Flat for the first 120km. Up and down for the final 80km but nothing too serious. There is an uncategorised climb with 14km to go, it is 4km at 4.4%, the first 2.2km are at 5.5% and it eases off after that. It doubt it will be decisive. As mc points out the descent into town after the climb could provide the better opportunity for a strong roleur type to stay away. I notice Lars Bak is in the market for this stage. This will be hard to do though if there are good numbers in the breakaway. At 2km before the line there is a little speedbump of 250m at 9%. Then the road kicks up with 750m to go before the line with the next 650m at about 8-9%. The last 100m are (false) flat. The 400m prior to the last 100m are at 11%. As far as the difficulty of the finish goes I would say it is somewhere in between stage 6 and stage 8. |
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Another scenario that wouldn't surprise me would be a small break to get away which is easily controlled and we get a sprint finish. The stage is pretty flat and a small break should need minimal cooperation to control. You wont want to catch the break too early though and set it up for the late attackers who could stay clear from a tired peleton. Could be fun.
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I've backed Navrdauskas at 50s for this stage
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Bak @ 20/25 sure...
Going for some longshots for small amounts: van Baarle, Pozatto, Kelderman, Simon, Peraud and Arredondo |
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If it stays together or is back together by La Primaube, then sprinters like Kristoff and likely even Degenkolb get left behind as the likely candidates attack off the front and go clear, I believe. It's likely the peloton turn off on this stage though, in which case the break will have it and IR bets to be assessed.
* Vuillermoz -- Showed his promise for later in the race when 3rd on the Mur de Huy, and he delivered with a very tough ride on the Mur de Bretagne attacking twice and clearing out with effortless speed against the best. This stage suits, he has good strength, and whilst he may not find himself in the break, if it is all together, he may just simply ride off the front. Opened at 50/1 and the low was 40/1. Now 50/1. Better on here. Will require things to fall into place. Commands respect. Take on trust. * Stybar -- Won stage 6 into Le Havre impressively, but the writing was on the board earlier in the season when he skipped away on the punchy ramp into the finish of Strade Bianche. Gets a similar finish here and he will be permitted to attack if he has good sensations. Opened at 18/1 and was as low as 10/1. Now 18/1. May be better IR on here. Impressive credentials. Worthy of very close consideration. 1/2* Gallopin -- Might be to tired, but he has impressed throughout this Tour thus far. Opened at 40/1 and was as low as 25/1. Now 40/1. Better on here. Keep safe. 1/8* Weening -- Some speculation he may find the break to get something for OGE. Noted as a strong breakaway candidate in the past. Opened at 200/1, low 100/1. Others worse. Place chance. Consider. Good luck to all, SP |
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Hopefully Bakelants from the break
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Jungels, Geschke, Yates, Wellens, Pantano so far pre-post for me
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Giant riding. Had this down as being a bit hard for Degenkolb, obviously fancies it.
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Couple of interesting propositions in the break, a nice gap, but won't know much more until they hit these little climbs coming up, and then comparing it to the peloton -- the idea is that the two cat.4s might disrupt and slow the peloton. The first cat.3 is more difficult but it comes a fair distance from the finish, so probably won't reveal that much. If the peloton begin to chase in earnest than it'll be interesting to see how the break respond, but really this race looks like it's waiting for about 35 kms to go.
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TGA will definitely need more help, but with the high temps the break might begin to sizzle and fry. Not enough data to call, presently.
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What do we know: We know that the peloton have not turned off and are unlikely to turn off during this stage. TCS contributing with TGA, now. The peloton are having a little taste here -- flying!
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The break on the first climb now...
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We know Sagan needs points today if he wants the green jersey, so Tinkoff ride.
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Ouch! Heavy fall for JC Peraud...
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Wont be easy to catch the break with only Giant and Tinkoff riding, good riders on the breakaway
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Pretty sure I saw a bit more of JC Peraud than I ever wanted to there.
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What do we know: The conditions on the road are very hot, and they will certainly be a factor. The break kept their gap pretty-much in check on the hardest cat.3 just earlier.
It won't be a surprise to see the break lose a fair chunk here, and they have lost some already (45 secs), because even though the road is up and down, the peloton have the advantage until 35 kms to go. The break will want at least 2 mins by that marker. |
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TGA may very-well be spent by 35 km marker, if they keep this up.
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I believe the breakaway will make it
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TCS taking over the chase, to be fair.
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Based on what evidence EB?
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Only 2 teams insterested, noone will help, they cant take more than 3 minutes too 6 good riders that are working well togheter
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TCS look like they are trying to split it.
Poor JCP stuck with Van Bilsen, Irviti and Navardauskas group well off the back. |
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Or not..
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Under 3mins for the break, still close though as the climbs will be tough on the peloton.
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Break combining well, each rider coming through to do their share.
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BMC for GVA?
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Rogers, Majka and Kreuziger working already...
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Let's talk breakaway chances:
Haas -- is not only a good bar-fighter, but can punch on the final climb. Kelderman -- the best on the climb, but not the smartest rider and inexperienced on the approach. Geniez -- climber. PLP -- weak. De Gendt -- tough rider with climbing ability. Gautier -- the toughest brawler, a real hardman, but will want a gap for the finale climb. 2mins approaching the final categorised climb. OGE helping on the front in the peloton. Matthews a Late Mail Special, apparently. Moved into the advantage of the peloton, I think. |
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Okay, so the staging point, the La Primaube looks like a cat.3 of some 4kms long at 5.75% is the next question. Who goes? Valverde...the puncheurs?
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So it's:
1. Long-range breakaway 2. Attacks out of the peloton. 3. Peloton arrowhead into splintering sprint. Haas attacks, he can go like this for a long time... |
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Hopefully Jungels has an attack in him.
Valverde will more than likely wait until the last 100m. |
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Im still with the breakaway :)
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It's looking better for them, and Haas attacking has got them working together smartly.
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