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marychain1
15 Jul 15 07:55
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Date Joined: 05 Apr 05
| Topic/replies: 28,704 | Blogger: marychain1's blog
Stage 12  »  Lannemezan  ›  Plateau de Beille   (195k)

A last day of Pyreanean climbing before we head East towards the Alps, but what a day this is. We have four categorised climbs on this 195km stage, and they get harder and harder culminating in the monstrous HC Plateau de Beille summit finish. There is a Cat 2 climb, 2 x Cat 1s and then the HC summit finish in what should be a great spectacle and go a long way towards establishing (or confirming) the GC order.

This is the third consecutive day with a lot of climbing and this could see some very big time gaps. The stage starts in the town of Lannemezan, South of Toulouse and East of Tarbes and on the eponymous plain which counts as the source of 18 different rivers. The area has a history of floods and mudslides, but it is unlikely we will see anything like that today. From Lannemezan we move generally East, moving more or less parallel to the Spanish border. The first 40-odd km of this stage are pretty flat, just to lull the riders into a false sense of security, but after 47km they will hit the first slopes of the Cat 2 Col de Portet-d'Aspet. From there on there is hardly a flat piece of road until the end. The Col de Portet-d'Aspet is a Cat 2 climb, infamous for the death of Fabio Casartelli in 1995, who died on the descent after a crash with several other riders when he hit his head on a concrete block at the side of the road.

The Portet d'Aspet is a hard climb, steep but mercifully short at 4.3km @ 9.7%. On this stage though the climbs get bigger and bigger. The Col de Portet d'Aspet should already see a large autobus form, and the pain continues when the riders hit the town of Castillons at 76km and they approach the second climb of the day, the Cat 1 Col de la Core.
Col de la Core is 14.1km @ 5.7%. It starts fairly innocuously, with low gradients, but towards the top there are 8km of climb where the slopes are always 6-8%. There is over 800m of vertical gain on this climb that tops out at just shy of 1400m. The descent is not too technical and following the descent there are some flat kilometres as the riders head towards the third climb of the day, the Cat 1 Port de Lers.

This is quite an irregular climb and it could catch riders out who are not happy with constantly changing gradients. This climb has been used in the Tour four times since the first time in 1995. Most recently it was included in 2012 when Sergio Paulinho won the stage that finished in the nearby Foix. The climb starts in the town of Massat and the early gradients aren't too steep. The slopes then go upto 6-9% for the nex few kms, and there are some short sections upto 12%. About 5km from the summit the gradient eases before another steep section around 8% just before the summit. The Port de Lers is 12.9% @ 6km in total, which is nearly 800m of vertical climb. When they reach the summit there are just under 50km to go in the stage.

The final climb to the ski station of Plateau de Beille is an absolute beast. This climb has featured on the Tour 5 times since 1998, most recently in 2011 when Jelle Vanendert won Stage 14. The hardest gradients on this climb are at the beginning, with steep ramps immediately out of the square in Les Cabannes. The climb is 15.8km @ 7.9% which makes this climb similar to L'alpe d'Huez. The first 12km of this climb will see the riders get cover from the forest, but after that it is open. The roads are primarily smooth for the forst part of the climb too, but they do deteriorate on the higher slopes where there are several switchbacks. This is a very hard climb at the end of a tough stage. Tthere could be very big time gaps and it would be no surprise to see the winner of this stage take the overall race.

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Replies: 147
By:
marychain1
When: 16 Jul 15 07:43
ttt
By:
ExpertBoy
When: 16 Jul 15 08:56
Major stage. Maybe another breakaway with more riders than yesterday (10-12). Ill toke some long shots again, since is my last day, but my main bet is lay Froome at such low odds (2,30-2,40)
By:
ClayDavis
When: 16 Jul 15 09:13
Ryder Hejedal for me
By:
CJ70
When: 16 Jul 15 09:21
Not sure SKY will be bothered to chase but I expect something from Movistar.

Going for the breakaway riders again.

Riblon, Kudus, Sepulveda & Navarro for me. If struggling with the outsiders, have a go at riders with an outside chance at being outsiders.
By:
GoBallistic
When: 16 Jul 15 09:44
Think I wrote before the start of the race that it was this stage where Quintana would start to make inroads.  Might seem optimistic given he was a minute behind on Tuesday but I do think he can at least match Froome today.

It would be hard to put four major climbs in a stage and design it much worse than this - the huge valleys and light headwind should make it fairly easy to control.  Sky, if they had any sense (major if), would stop Movistar / Tinkoff riders getting up the road because barring Froome imploding that is really the only danger.  If that happens I'd expect those teams to chase the break and have the numbers to do so
By:
nugget
When: 16 Jul 15 10:22
1st Quintana
2nd Froome
3rd Porte

break short list; Meintjes, Yates, Valls, Kangert, Riblon, Navarro, Kruijswijk.  Not great odds.
By:
ExpertBoy
When: 16 Jul 15 10:32
And betfair should let me close my open bets and now i cant do it... already emailed and they say i should be able to close open bets, but i cant do nothing right now... i made a big lay on froome to close it later and im stuck :s
By:
nugget
When: 16 Jul 15 10:41
That sucks EB, maybe you could try to use the "live chat" option on the "help centre" page.
By:
ExpertBoy
When: 16 Jul 15 10:43
Already in touch with them, but they keep saying the same, i should be able to close bets, but i cant do it. Already email portuguese support, but still no answer.
By:
CJ70
When: 16 Jul 15 10:57
Ask the helpdesk on Twitter to close the bets for you. Always the quickest way of contacting them.
By:
nugget
When: 16 Jul 15 11:01
24 riders in the break
Joaquim Rodriguez and Romain Bardet the biggest names to have made the break.
By:
the swede
When: 16 Jul 15 11:02
I like fuglsang
By:
nugget
When: 16 Jul 15 11:02
Movistar with a man in the break
By:
nugget
When: 16 Jul 15 11:03
oh yeah. Fuglsang is there too with teammate Westra.
By:
nugget
When: 16 Jul 15 11:04
Fuglsang looked bad yesterday, maybe he was saving energy.
By:
the swede
When: 16 Jul 15 11:08
fuglsang was saving for today. if he had been with froome and company at finish he only been like 5 minutes after and sky would not let him go today. so you need to tank some time before you go for stage win
By:
nugget
When: 16 Jul 15 11:14
yeah true, makes perfect sense. I assumed he already lost time before yesterday because he was a relatively short price for yesterdays stage.
By:
nugget
When: 16 Jul 15 11:18
I did read Astana were saying that Fuglsang was their new leader before yesterday's stage and they would go for a top-5 result on the GC.  Weird, considering he was still behind Nibali. Typical Vino.
By:
nugget
When: 16 Jul 15 11:23
3 riders in the break and I run into J.Rod, Bardet and Fuglsang.

Movistar might be looking to do something today with a man in the break, it will probably only be to try and drop TJ however.
By:
the swede
When: 16 Jul 15 11:23
well it was my thougt. you never know. dont now what will happen with this break but for once I am sitting pretty laying 48 riders for a 99 % book. With no lay on fugelsang, Izagirre, Durasak, Preidler, Chavanel can take some profit now.
By:
nugget
When: 16 Jul 15 11:30
Good work.

I'm hoping Meintjes can put a good ride in.
By:
nugget
When: 16 Jul 15 11:50
Break not getting away completely, gap down to 5:20.  Sky on the front, Froome might want this.
By:
padlock
When: 16 Jul 15 11:55
Guesswork
By:
nugget
When: 16 Jul 15 12:04
Break gonna need more than 5 min
By:
CJ70
When: 16 Jul 15 12:07
Going to be a few abandons today. Zak Dempster is 10 mins behind already.
By:
CJ70
When: 16 Jul 15 12:08
As I say that Dempster and Dowsett abandon.
By:
ExpertBoy
When: 16 Jul 15 12:28
If i could i would be all over this 2.80 lay on Froome.
By:
ExpertBoy
When: 16 Jul 15 12:39
At least my lay is going well...

And i have 3 riders in the breakaway, although they arent favourites and i cant "sell"
By:
ExpertBoy
When: 16 Jul 15 12:41
jesus, give me my bets back, i would be making so much more money...
By:
CJ70
When: 16 Jul 15 12:43
Tried logging in via a VPN?
By:
CJ70
When: 16 Jul 15 12:50
Rain that's going to change things.
By:
ExpertBoy
When: 16 Jul 15 12:56
CJ70 16 Jul 15 12:43 Joined: 26 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 25,340 | Blogger: CJ70's blog
Tried logging in via a VPN?

whats that?

I think they blocked accounts based on country, so changing ISP's and stuff wont work
By:
CJ70
When: 16 Jul 15 13:02
I get in on a Spanish IP by using a VPN. Basically just a mask for your local IP, although it won't help if they've locked all PT accounts.

Google 'Cyber Ghost', 'Tunnel Bear' or 'PrivateTunnel' they all offer free VPN services.
By:
ExpertBoy
When: 16 Jul 15 13:13
They blocked PT accounts. And are now asking for adress proof to open an account in another country, so that wont work too. Just have to wait for regulation, that can take months or even years...
By:
bb66
When: 16 Jul 15 13:16
there are some agents offering BF accounts, even with 2 or 3% commission rate, though you should use a VPN then.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 16 Jul 15 13:30
Bit late into this, but no real surprises following on from the pre-start consensus that we would see a much larger break than yesterday. This presently still looks like it's to the advantage of the peloton. These types of grand stages with a difficult mountaintop finish might usually be regarded as with the advantage of the peloton, so basically the GC riders, just because of the high pace they generate once they get on it. The key would therefore be to work out the best climber in the break, who can attack and bury himself on the final climb, but unless he is having really good sensations someone like Froome or Quintana will make good time. Nevertheless, one suitable rider is Bardet. His recent win in stage 5 of the Criterium Dauphine into Pra-Loup was a very impressive achievement. I think the team will want to raise his confidence for the future and expect his teammates in the break to work for him when it comes down to the crunch. They're not combining very well, so that works against them and therefore with the peloton, but Bardet is my selection at this point.
By:
ExpertBoy
When: 16 Jul 15 13:49
At least i dont waste any money backing Froome, its all winnings
By:
ExpertBoy
When: 16 Jul 15 13:51
From the breakaway i add pre race Bardet @220 Navarro @150 and Riblon @200 but i cant lay so i will have to stick with that
By:
SwingingPick
When: 16 Jul 15 13:51
Kwiatkowski is the best of the these three, although Preidler has been known to climb well on occasion. Vanmarcke no chance. I think they might have gone too early though, and likely they'll be caught by the second big group, where the chances are best, but the peloton looks like they're organising. Still tough to call, but Bardet with a Froome/Quintana trade looks reasonable.
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