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ttt
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Major stage. Maybe another breakaway with more riders than yesterday (10-12). Ill toke some long shots again, since is my last day, but my main bet is lay Froome at such low odds (2,30-2,40)
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Ryder Hejedal for me
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Not sure SKY will be bothered to chase but I expect something from Movistar.
Going for the breakaway riders again. Riblon, Kudus, Sepulveda & Navarro for me. If struggling with the outsiders, have a go at riders with an outside chance at being outsiders. |
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Think I wrote before the start of the race that it was this stage where Quintana would start to make inroads. Might seem optimistic given he was a minute behind on Tuesday but I do think he can at least match Froome today.
It would be hard to put four major climbs in a stage and design it much worse than this - the huge valleys and light headwind should make it fairly easy to control. Sky, if they had any sense (major if), would stop Movistar / Tinkoff riders getting up the road because barring Froome imploding that is really the only danger. If that happens I'd expect those teams to chase the break and have the numbers to do so |
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1st Quintana
2nd Froome 3rd Porte break short list; Meintjes, Yates, Valls, Kangert, Riblon, Navarro, Kruijswijk. Not great odds. |
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And betfair should let me close my open bets and now i cant do it... already emailed and they say i should be able to close open bets, but i cant do nothing right now... i made a big lay on froome to close it later and im stuck :s
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That sucks EB, maybe you could try to use the "live chat" option on the "help centre" page.
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Already in touch with them, but they keep saying the same, i should be able to close bets, but i cant do it. Already email portuguese support, but still no answer.
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Ask the helpdesk on Twitter to close the bets for you. Always the quickest way of contacting them.
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24 riders in the break
Joaquim Rodriguez and Romain Bardet the biggest names to have made the break. |
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I like fuglsang
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Movistar with a man in the break
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oh yeah. Fuglsang is there too with teammate Westra.
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Fuglsang looked bad yesterday, maybe he was saving energy.
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fuglsang was saving for today. if he had been with froome and company at finish he only been like 5 minutes after and sky would not let him go today. so you need to tank some time before you go for stage win
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yeah true, makes perfect sense. I assumed he already lost time before yesterday because he was a relatively short price for yesterdays stage.
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I did read Astana were saying that Fuglsang was their new leader before yesterday's stage and they would go for a top-5 result on the GC. Weird, considering he was still behind Nibali. Typical Vino.
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3 riders in the break and I run into J.Rod, Bardet and Fuglsang.
Movistar might be looking to do something today with a man in the break, it will probably only be to try and drop TJ however. |
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well it was my thougt. you never know. dont now what will happen with this break but for once I am sitting pretty laying 48 riders for a 99 % book. With no lay on fugelsang, Izagirre, Durasak, Preidler, Chavanel can take some profit now.
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Good work.
I'm hoping Meintjes can put a good ride in. |
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Break not getting away completely, gap down to 5:20. Sky on the front, Froome might want this.
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Guesswork
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Break gonna need more than 5 min
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Going to be a few abandons today. Zak Dempster is 10 mins behind already.
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As I say that Dempster and Dowsett abandon.
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If i could i would be all over this 2.80 lay on Froome.
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At least my lay is going well...
And i have 3 riders in the breakaway, although they arent favourites and i cant "sell" |
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jesus, give me my bets back, i would be making so much more money...
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Tried logging in via a VPN?
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Rain that's going to change things.
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CJ70 16 Jul 15 12:43 Joined: 26 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 25,340 | Blogger: CJ70's blog
Tried logging in via a VPN? whats that? I think they blocked accounts based on country, so changing ISP's and stuff wont work |
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I get in on a Spanish IP by using a VPN. Basically just a mask for your local IP, although it won't help if they've locked all PT accounts.
Google 'Cyber Ghost', 'Tunnel Bear' or 'PrivateTunnel' they all offer free VPN services. |
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They blocked PT accounts. And are now asking for adress proof to open an account in another country, so that wont work too. Just have to wait for regulation, that can take months or even years...
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there are some agents offering BF accounts, even with 2 or 3% commission rate, though you should use a VPN then.
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Bit late into this, but no real surprises following on from the pre-start consensus that we would see a much larger break than yesterday. This presently still looks like it's to the advantage of the peloton. These types of grand stages with a difficult mountaintop finish might usually be regarded as with the advantage of the peloton, so basically the GC riders, just because of the high pace they generate once they get on it. The key would therefore be to work out the best climber in the break, who can attack and bury himself on the final climb, but unless he is having really good sensations someone like Froome or Quintana will make good time. Nevertheless, one suitable rider is Bardet. His recent win in stage 5 of the Criterium Dauphine into Pra-Loup was a very impressive achievement. I think the team will want to raise his confidence for the future and expect his teammates in the break to work for him when it comes down to the crunch. They're not combining very well, so that works against them and therefore with the peloton, but Bardet is my selection at this point.
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At least i dont waste any money backing Froome, its all winnings
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From the breakaway i add pre race Bardet @220 Navarro @150 and Riblon @200 but i cant lay so i will have to stick with that
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Kwiatkowski is the best of the these three, although Preidler has been known to climb well on occasion. Vanmarcke no chance. I think they might have gone too early though, and likely they'll be caught by the second big group, where the chances are best, but the peloton looks like they're organising. Still tough to call, but Bardet with a Froome/Quintana trade looks reasonable.
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