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Stage 11 » Pau › Cauterets (188k)
This is a serious amount of climbing today, with the famous Tourmalet climb providing the Souvenir Jacques Goddet. It is conceivable however that there won't be time gaps between the major competitors as the final climb is the Cat 3 Cauterets.
In many ways this is similar to Stage 18 of last year's tour, starting as it does in Pau and including a climb of the legendary Tourmalet. However, last year the stage won by Nibali was only 145km and this year it is 188km. Last year the route went through Nay and Ossun on the way to the Cote du Loucrup, whereas this year they go through Lourdes. Last year the Tourmalet was the first of the two big climbs on the route for the day with the Hautacam as a summit finish, this time it is the second as we take the Cat 1 Col d'Aspin on the way there before descending to Sainte-Marie-de Campan, where the Tourmalet starts.
The riders will head South and then primarily East out of Pau. There are 6 categorised climbs in all on this 188km route, but the first half of the route is fairly flat, only containing the Cote du Loucrup (Cat 3 - 2km @ 7%) the Cote de Bagneres-de-Bigorre (Cat 4 - 1.6km @ 6.1%) and the Cote de Mauvezin (Cat 3 - 2km @ 6%). After the Mauvezin the riders will turn directly South until they reach the town of Arreau at 105km into the stage. Here they will turn and travel primarily North and West and this is where the nature of the stage changes and the real climbing starts with the Cat 1 Col d'Aspin.
The Col d'Aspin is a famous old Pyrenean climb. This will be the Col d'Aspin's 72nd appearance in the Tour, and 9th since 2000, which is down more to its location between the Tourmalet and the Peyresourde than the difficulty of the climb. That is not to underestimate this climb. They take it from the harder eastern side, and at 12km @ 6.5% and with 779m of vertical gain it will soften the legs of any rider, especially as the hardest stretch is near the top. But compared to some of its neighbours this is not a hard climb, especially with what comes next. The descent is not too bad from the Col d'Aspin, but there will be little respite for tired riders as they will soon get to Sainte-Marie-de-Campan and the start of the Tourmalet climb.
The Tourmalet is 17.1km @7.3%. It is a very difficult climb. The Tourmalet wil be making its 84th appearance in the Tour, and its 10th since 2000. It is the most commonly used mountain pass. The Tourmalet is also the highest paved mountain pass in the French Pyrenees. The first few km start fairly easily, before the gradients get far harder soon after the town of Gripp. The last 11km of this climb are all at 8% or above, but the steepest slopes are at 12%. There is vertical gain of 1,268m on this climb and it tops out at 2115m. The descent can sometimes prove as decisive as the climb. We will see the riders take the same very technical descent on that Valverde attacked on last year and split the bunch to pieces. This descent is horrendous and terrifying in bad weather (I speak from personal experience). This time any attack on the descent could stick because after the descent the riders only face the Cat 3 Cauterets, rather than the HC Hautacam.
After the descent of the Tourmalet the riders have 10km to go. The stage actually finishes after the Cote de Cauterets (6.4km @ 5%), and both the Cauterets and the following 3.5km can be classified as irregular climbs, with flats followed by steeper ramps. The last time the Tour finished in Cauterets was in 1995 when stage 15 was won by Richard Virenque although the stage will always be remembered as the day Fabio Casartelli died after a crash on the descent of the Col de Portet d'Aspet.
If we have wet conditions this could be won by an attacking descender on the Tourmalet, such as Nibali, Valverde or Bardet. If it stays together until the Cauterets then it could suit someone who thrives on a climb with irregular and constantly changing gradients like Alberto Contador.
This is a serious amount of climbing today, with the famous Tourmalet climb providing the Souvenir Jacques Goddet. It is conceivable however that there won't be time gaps between the major competitors as the final climb is the Cat 3 Cauterets.
In many ways this is similar to Stage 18 of last year's tour, starting as it does in Pau and including a climb of the legendary Tourmalet. However, last year the stage won by Nibali was only 145km and this year it is 188km. Last year the route went through Nay and Ossun on the way to the Cote du Loucrup, whereas this year they go through Lourdes. Last year the Tourmalet was the first of the two big climbs on the route for the day with the Hautacam as a summit finish, this time it is the second as we take the Cat 1 Col d'Aspin on the way there before descending to Sainte-Marie-de Campan, where the Tourmalet starts.
The riders will head South and then primarily East out of Pau. There are 6 categorised climbs in all on this 188km route, but the first half of the route is fairly flat, only containing the Cote du Loucrup (Cat 3 - 2km @ 7%) the Cote de Bagneres-de-Bigorre (Cat 4 - 1.6km @ 6.1%) and the Cote de Mauvezin (Cat 3 - 2km @ 6%). After the Mauvezin the riders will turn directly South until they reach the town of Arreau at 105km into the stage. Here they will turn and travel primarily North and West and this is where the nature of the stage changes and the real climbing starts with the Cat 1 Col d'Aspin.
The Col d'Aspin is a famous old Pyrenean climb. This will be the Col d'Aspin's 72nd appearance in the Tour, and 9th since 2000, which is down more to its location between the Tourmalet and the Peyresourde than the difficulty of the climb. That is not to underestimate this climb. They take it from the harder eastern side, and at 12km @ 6.5% and with 779m of vertical gain it will soften the legs of any rider, especially as the hardest stretch is near the top. But compared to some of its neighbours this is not a hard climb, especially with what comes next. The descent is not too bad from the Col d'Aspin, but there will be little respite for tired riders as they will soon get to Sainte-Marie-de-Campan and the start of the Tourmalet climb.
The Tourmalet is 17.1km @7.3%. It is a very difficult climb. The Tourmalet wil be making its 84th appearance in the Tour, and its 10th since 2000. It is the most commonly used mountain pass. The Tourmalet is also the highest paved mountain pass in the French Pyrenees. The first few km start fairly easily, before the gradients get far harder soon after the town of Gripp. The last 11km of this climb are all at 8% or above, but the steepest slopes are at 12%. There is vertical gain of 1,268m on this climb and it tops out at 2115m. The descent can sometimes prove as decisive as the climb. We will see the riders take the same very technical descent on that Valverde attacked on last year and split the bunch to pieces. This descent is horrendous and terrifying in bad weather (I speak from personal experience). This time any attack on the descent could stick because after the descent the riders only face the Cat 3 Cauterets, rather than the HC Hautacam.
After the descent of the Tourmalet the riders have 10km to go. The stage actually finishes after the Cote de Cauterets (6.4km @ 5%), and both the Cauterets and the following 3.5km can be classified as irregular climbs, with flats followed by steeper ramps. The last time the Tour finished in Cauterets was in 1995 when stage 15 was won by Richard Virenque although the stage will always be remembered as the day Fabio Casartelli died after a crash on the descent of the Col de Portet d'Aspet.
If we have wet conditions this could be won by an attacking descender on the Tourmalet, such as Nibali, Valverde or Bardet. If it stays together until the Cauterets then it could suit someone who thrives on a climb with irregular and constantly changing gradients like Alberto Contador.
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Jul 15, 2015 -- 3:09AM, Autocue wrote:
You called me a f***ing troll swinging pick. Well you're an arrogant f***ing loudmouth from a Chinese mining colony.
It's that level of debate written in the wrong thread that makes me appreciate what you are saying! Masterful!
This has break written all over it. Backed the usual suspects.
Riblon
Tommy V
Rui Costa
Riblon
Tommy V
Rui Costa
Really thought it would be a day for a break today and was waiting to see who is in it.
So far just a break of 4 after 41km and only 40 secs ahead, a strong quartet Westra, Kwiatowski, Jungels, and Boasson Hagen but little chance of them staying away. They needed at least double that amount of riders to really make it go pover the climbs. Hopefully there will be a counter attack on the Aspin or lower slopes of tourmalet, and I will try to get involved then!
So far just a break of 4 after 41km and only 40 secs ahead, a strong quartet Westra, Kwiatowski, Jungels, and Boasson Hagen but little chance of them staying away. They needed at least double that amount of riders to really make it go pover the climbs. Hopefully there will be a counter attack on the Aspin or lower slopes of tourmalet, and I will try to get involved then!
The nature of this type of stage dictates the difficulty with which the GC teams can ride tempo and close to the course to attacks. The peloton essentially gets disrupted from the very first climb, and then multiple breaks form causing an almost chaotic scenario with breaks at different points along the road. I therefore agree with the consensus that a break gets established here, and would in addition add that at a certain point in the stage these breaks merge or reform into a considerable break which might might have the firepower to stay away to the finish.
CJ suggested that Rui Costa was either still experiencing difficulty or he might be saving himself for today, I have not found an answer one way or the other, although I think he might be saving himself for the Gap stage.
Whilst I too enjoy solving the likely break at ante-post and harvesting the shortening price for a good trade, I have found it really difficult for this stage, my contact has not been in touch which makes it that much more difficult, and given the perceived chaotic nature of this stage, I nevertheless think there may be plenty of opportunities IR to jag a good price or lay some unlikely rider in the break.
Mathias Frank is suited for this type of stage, however I cannot count on his motivation as I haven't got confirmation from him nor the team. I think probably Valverde might trade higher than his present price, and have started with that play.
Good luck to all
SP
P.S. MC -- really lovely to get to know you like this mate -- love the jersey -- you look like a good bloke if you don't mind me saying -- thanks for sharing your experiences and adventures in this sport we all love so much, in the areas the riders are covering at this point of the Tour.
CJ suggested that Rui Costa was either still experiencing difficulty or he might be saving himself for today, I have not found an answer one way or the other, although I think he might be saving himself for the Gap stage.
Whilst I too enjoy solving the likely break at ante-post and harvesting the shortening price for a good trade, I have found it really difficult for this stage, my contact has not been in touch which makes it that much more difficult, and given the perceived chaotic nature of this stage, I nevertheless think there may be plenty of opportunities IR to jag a good price or lay some unlikely rider in the break.
Mathias Frank is suited for this type of stage, however I cannot count on his motivation as I haven't got confirmation from him nor the team. I think probably Valverde might trade higher than his present price, and have started with that play.
Good luck to all
SP
P.S. MC -- really lovely to get to know you like this mate -- love the jersey -- you look like a good bloke if you don't mind me saying -- thanks for sharing your experiences and adventures in this sport we all love so much, in the areas the riders are covering at this point of the Tour.
I've found the answer to the Rui Costa question.. He's been dropped on the first cat.3 
Mind you over 100 riders have.
Mind you over 100 riders have.
The early break has been caught already! Good news we should definitely some attacks now on the aspin and hopefully a bigger group get allowed to go.
Looks like the peleton has split in to two groups, and Rui Costa is in second half so he must still be suffering.
Looks like the peleton has split in to two groups, and Rui Costa is in second half so he must still be suffering.
My last day here, since betfair will close here(Portugal) because of new regulation
Im with a few long shots
GL ALL
Im with a few long shots
GL ALL
Sorry to hear that EB, the forum will be lighter for your absence, however you could try changing your ISP -- that might work? All the best,
SP
SP
It seems it wont work, and we wont have any bets here until regulation is ready, that can take several months. Already was emailed by betfair.
I will be here to give some insights whenever i can.
I will be here to give some insights whenever i can.
Can you not use an asian broker to access the Betfair markets?
Not sure if it's appropriate for cycling betting though.
Not sure if it's appropriate for cycling betting though.
Voeckler, Pauwels, Majka, Morabito & Buchmann have nearly 2 mins.
3min:30 looking good for the breakaway. One of my boys there (Morabito) but with Majka there, it would be almost impossible to win.
wtf is D.Martin doing, trying to bridge almost 4minutes? thats crazy
Rui Costa now 11mins back in the last group. Possible abandon coming?
Wonder why Martin didn't wait for the climb to go? Would have made things a lot easier.
Wonder why Martin didn't wait for the climb to go? Would have made things a lot easier.
Have backed Morabito 18/1 and also Dan Martin 18/1 both ew.
Because on the climb the peloton will be 7-8 min behind... he should have gone when Simon and Demare went, not now! Wasting energy for nothing
Martin has Grivko with him so i think a fair chance they will make the bridge across.
They are burning themselves and they took less than one minute, even if they get there they will be dead
Not sure whether to trust this GPS too much but J-Rod is off the back of the peloton.
Rui Costa group have supposedly made 5 mins and are back in the peloton so sceptical.
Rui Costa group have supposedly made 5 mins and are back in the peloton so sceptical.
Yes not looking good for Martin as Grivko has had to sit up just 2km in to the climb! Only 2 mins 40s behind now but is going to cost him a lot of energy just getting across.
Martin's going to bridge before the summit by the look of it.
Martin is in the cars behind the break and can see Demare. Top riding to get over.
So much for resting after bridging. Martin sprints away for the KOM points.
Superb by Martin, is obviously targeting the KOM as really went for it there.
Great ride, he has to be really strong to comeback that easy, but will probably pay it later.
Not sure this is a Backer's market just yet, looks more like a Layer's market still, with the gap coming down fast and within range of being picked off by attacks out of the peloton.
Not sure why Astana are chasing if it's not for Nibali to try something on the descent. Can't see Fuglsang going on the downhill?
Astana's tactics are a joke. They lost the GIRO because they are stupid and are just doing the same.
Makes absolutely no sense as now Nibali is isolated half way up the climb...
Rui Costa abandon. Going to start selling predictions for layers at this rate
I read Gallopin yesterday... he said he lost some weight this year, and this is obviously something to do with that.
I would love to see Nibali going hard on the descent and put someone in panic
Slowly becoming my rider to watch is Gallopin. Impressed by this.
Sammy Sanchez holding on at the back. Fuglsang the other Astana there?
Sammy Sanchez holding on at the back. Fuglsang the other Astana there?
Those gaps are nothing on a technical 30 km descent -- cheap lay on Majka here for mine as he may trade higher.
Wish I knew more about the descent abilities of these for more confidence.
they can easily close 1min or plus in the descent, lets see the gaps on the top
Ahh cheers.
Ten Dam, Talansky and Frank bridged up. Mick too?
Chance of Contador attacking and Majka being forced to wait?
Ten Dam, Talansky and Frank bridged up. Mick too?
Chance of Contador attacking and Majka being forced to wait?
No chance CJ, they wont change a stage win and Mountain Jersey for some time on Froome... If it was Astana, i wouldnt say the same.
Majka has 2 mins on the second group, looks like he's got it now.
Majka doing a Majka. Wait for your team to give up on its leader and then ride for yourself. Spewing my 40's wasn't matched.
I'm watching the GPS and there's a blob that keeps appearing not far behind Majka. No idea if it's accurate or who it is if it is accurate.
hey guys, where abouts can i find the GPS tracker? main tour site?
http://letour-livetracking.dimensiondata.com/
Not that accurate so take it as you find.
Yellow jersey just 3mins behind Majka according to it atm.
Not that accurate so take it as you find.
Yellow jersey just 3mins behind Majka according to it atm.
Majka the much better climber for the final bit, even if Pauwels catches.
yeah that's what i thought, couldn't understand the drift on majka 5 mins ago
Not trusting this..
But GPS has either Pauwels closer or someone in between.
http://gyazo.com/2edb16f88062812b306dc03fad62a516
But GPS has either Pauwels closer or someone in between.
http://gyazo.com/2edb16f88062812b306dc03fad62a516
Froome went for the KOM points and took the jersey off Porte
I wonder how Dan Martin would of gone if he didn't miss the break by 4-5 minutes?
Pity, Martin had the legs obviously, but Majka the best climber in that group, and no one descended like a maniac.
Yeah clearly the best climber, I'm surprised they bothered working with him. Didn't they see last years tour?
Bristol County Caravans and 626 tipped Majka on the Comp thread, so hope they landed some good bets there.
Unless there's a big name rider in the breakaway, riders will always work together in a long-range break. I mean, not working with a rider is essentially holding up the white flag -- what team wants such a rider?
What a difference a year make Nibali looks a shadow of the Rider he was last year 
Sure whatever you say. So all the other riders who didn't go in the breakaway were holding up the white flag on a stage suited for the breakaway. You don't work with a rider like Majka, the break fails, go back to the bunch and wait for the next break to form. Teams want their riders on TV but they also want smart riders who ride to win. With only six other riders in the break is was basically a gift for Majka.
At last years TdF, Majka won two stages and had a 2nd and a 3rd and he won the Polka Dot jersey. He was the best climber at the race behind Nibali last year. He was said to be in good form and part of a strong team to help Contador in the mountains this year. I don't know if he qualifies as a big name to you but you wouldn't want to see him in your 6 man breakaway on a mountain stage that included the Tourmalet if you really wanted to win the stage.
Look, I don't want to downplay your opinion, I see what you're saying, but that is a call for the DS at the point when the break is forming, Majka was equal favourite with Martin and plenty wouldn't have seen much between them, admittedly I wasn't sure at that point who it would be that far out, that's why I suggested laying riders instead. Majka hasn't had the best of seasons and whilst he was brilliant last year here, it wasn't as clear cut as having Sagan on a flat finish scenario, so those teams would've expected their riders to have had decent chances against him -- I mean nobody would say Majka is a dominant force, don't go into a break with him because he'll win nine times out of ten.
Martin bridged a 4:30 minute gap to the break mostly on his own. The break formed without Martin.
You don't know why Majka or any doms are in a break though. Would be silly not to work in a break if he sits up and waits for Contador.
Unlikely today, but you wouldn't bet on it every stage.
Unlikely today, but you wouldn't bet on it every stage.
Precisely my point nugget -- what DS would permit their rider to put so much effort into bridging solo into a gap with Majka in it, if there are plenty of opportunites remaining to win stages later in the race, whilst being equipped with the data on Majka's previous results in this race. Are you suggesting Wegelius or Hunter were unaware of Majka's exploits? Of course they knew Majka was good, but it wasn't a certainty, and Martin was obviously feeling very good to have done what he did before closing on Majka toward the line. They backed their rider because Majka is not a destroyer, we've seen glimpses of it, and he has added to it, but I think riders of a certain level will think they are suited against him.
You don't work with a rider like Majka, but you hurt yourself riding solo on a tough and hot stage to get into a break with him -- what nonsense!
You do occasionally see those tactics CJ but absolutely 0% chance Contador was attacking today. Why do you think they sent Majka in the break? To sit up and wait for a rejuvenated Contador who attacks the bunch and drops Froome and Sky. No chance. If Contador was feeling good Majka would of been riding with him.
Majka has a higher strike rate than Sagan at the TdF last two years. With the composition of that break prior to Martin bridging he wins that stage 10 out of 10 times.
You're missing the point sp. I'm talking about before the break even gets 20-30 secs.
Majka has a higher strike rate than Sagan at the TdF last two years. With the composition of that break prior to Martin bridging he wins that stage 10 out of 10 times.
You're missing the point sp. I'm talking about before the break even gets 20-30 secs.
Martin probably waited so long to chase the break because he didn't think Majka was going to get such an easy gift.
I'm not missing the point at all -- that's the part of the race when the DS men are watching the coverage in the cars and saying yay or nay about their own breakaway-attempting riders being involved in a group by working out the break's composition.
You've essentially argued that upon realising that Majka was in the breakaway, the DS men of the other teams should have called their riders out of the break -- letting Majka go alone or preventing him going on alone. My point is not only did they not do that, Wegelius permitted Martin to hurt himself to get into a break with Majka, which illustrates the point -- how narrow he thought Majka's chances were against his own man Martin.
If you disagree with a team's tactics that's one thing, but you cannot argue that a team is not aware of Majka's previous results.
You've essentially argued that upon realising that Majka was in the breakaway, the DS men of the other teams should have called their riders out of the break -- letting Majka go alone or preventing him going on alone. My point is not only did they not do that, Wegelius permitted Martin to hurt himself to get into a break with Majka, which illustrates the point -- how narrow he thought Majka's chances were against his own man Martin.
If you disagree with a team's tactics that's one thing, but you cannot argue that a team is not aware of Majka's previous results.
I think it's pretty clear what I'm arguing here.
They shouldn't have needed their DS to tell them who Majka is anyway it's a decision they make in the heat of the moment when a break is forming. I dont know what you're on about with Wegelius, you don't restrain a rider like Dan Martin when he is on good form you give him the green light. I'm talking about the outmatched riders who helped form the break with Majka.
wd Majka backers. I thought he was a chance today from a breakaway, I just thought it would be from a larger more competitive break with 15-25 riders.
They shouldn't have needed their DS to tell them who Majka is anyway it's a decision they make in the heat of the moment when a break is forming. I dont know what you're on about with Wegelius, you don't restrain a rider like Dan Martin when he is on good form you give him the green light. I'm talking about the outmatched riders who helped form the break with Majka.
wd Majka backers. I thought he was a chance today from a breakaway, I just thought it would be from a larger more competitive break with 15-25 riders.
I know what you're arguing because you stated it earlier and it's still evident as of: July 15, 2015 4:08 PM "Yeah clearly the best climber, I'm surprised they bothered working with him. Didn't they see last years tour?"
You're inferring that nobody knew what Majka did last year, moreover you seem to be inferring that you saw more than the DS men of the teams involved in the breakaway. The latter might actually be the case since you have proven to be an astute cycling analyst, however you seem to think that tactics and ignorance are one and the same thing, and clearly they're not. Everyone in that break and each DS would have seen Majka amongst themselves and in the break, and known he did amazing things last year, but not working with him would have been tantamount to putting up the white flag of surrender and no team wants such riders, and no team is going to restrain their riders against Majka at this point of his career.
In any case, I can see I am not going to convince you, so no worries but I'm withdrawing from this discussion with you.
You're inferring that nobody knew what Majka did last year, moreover you seem to be inferring that you saw more than the DS men of the teams involved in the breakaway. The latter might actually be the case since you have proven to be an astute cycling analyst, however you seem to think that tactics and ignorance are one and the same thing, and clearly they're not. Everyone in that break and each DS would have seen Majka amongst themselves and in the break, and known he did amazing things last year, but not working with him would have been tantamount to putting up the white flag of surrender and no team wants such riders, and no team is going to restrain their riders against Majka at this point of his career.
In any case, I can see I am not going to convince you, so no worries but I'm withdrawing from this discussion with you.
"Yeah clearly the best climber, I'm surprised they bothered working with him. Didn't they see last years tour?"
Don't you know a rhetorical question when you see one? I'm sure they know his results, that's why I was surprised.
Breakaways often fail because the riders are unhappy with the composition of the group it's nothing new. If they had of just sat on his wheel for a bit he would of got the message and gone back to the peleton, sometimes the riders have to take a bit of the initiative and show a bit of tactical awareness. As for the DS's they were probably just happy to have their team colours on TV and maybe some of the riders were just looking for some face time. I dont know what you're going on about with the white flag of surrender but you are sounding a bit French.
Don't you know a rhetorical question when you see one? I'm sure they know his results, that's why I was surprised.
Breakaways often fail because the riders are unhappy with the composition of the group it's nothing new. If they had of just sat on his wheel for a bit he would of got the message and gone back to the peleton, sometimes the riders have to take a bit of the initiative and show a bit of tactical awareness. As for the DS's they were probably just happy to have their team colours on TV and maybe some of the riders were just looking for some face time. I dont know what you're going on about with the white flag of surrender but you are sounding a bit French.
Jul 15, 2015 -- 3:09AM, Autocue wrote:
You called me a f***ing troll swinging pick. Well you're an arrogant f***ing loudmouth from a Chinese mining colony.
Nothing personal but I think this was the best post of the day. Made me laugh... Chinese mining colony... vg
It's personal all right, that's why I've just now blocked you -- thanx!
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