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Stage 9 (TTT) » Vannes › Plumelec (28k)
It's team time trial time
It's a 28km course from Vannes to Plumulec in Brittany. This is a very unusual TTT. Normally team time trials are very early in grand tours to ensure everyone has a full complement of riders. It is not normal to have a TTT this late. Also, this has followed the most hectic start to a GT that I can remember. To be frank it is astonishing that all four of the main GC teams have 9 riders, given the start we have had. If any team had one or more riders missing they would be at a very big disadvantage.
28km doesnt seem like a long course, but we could see significant time gaps. There are three climbs on the route, including the 3rd at Plumulec which could really see teams suffer. What you want for this course, ideally, is two teams. You need to have 5 climbers. The last climb will be very hard. 1.7km @ 6.2% is a very sttep climb to come at the end of a team time trial. The watch stops on the 5th rider, so your first 4 can only go at the speed of the 5th rider. To give an idea of how steep this final climb is, the last time a road stage finished here it was won by Alejandro Valverde in 2008.
BMC are odds on favourites. They are very strong with several time trial specialists and other rouleurs. The issue for me with their team is that I can only see 4 climbers. They can only go at the speed of whoever will be hanging on (Van Avermaet?). They should podium but they are very short in my eyes. To me this is between Movistar and Sky. Movistar are incredibly strong. They have 3 specialist TTers is Castroviejo, Malori and Dowsett. Dowsett may still be recovering from his crash but this lineup gives them good flat speed. Moreover, they have 5 specialist climbers in Herrada, Valverde, Izaguirre, Quintana and Ancona.
Sky have at least 7 guys that could be there at the finish in theory, which is the most climbing power of any team. They might not have the flat power of BMC or Movistar, so it would not surprise me to see them down at the first checkpoint. I think they will use Rowe, Stannard and Roche or Kennaugh to power them on the flat and then they will use their considerable climbing strength on the final climb at Plumulec to try and claw back time on the teams that might be stronger on the level.
So I think it will be close between Movistar, Sky and BMC with the rest a bit further back. When you have three teams that you think are fairly equally strong it makes sense to go for the one at the bigest price. Personally, I've done Sky at 8/1 and 10/1, although for fairly moderate stakes. I wish I'd gone back in at 14/1 when Padds pushed them out to that price but I'd used both the accounts I have access to to the maximum I could get on. Other teams that look like they could perform fairly well here are Tinkoff and Astana. Astana look to have a very strong team and on paper they really could threaten at least a podium as they seem to combine flat speed and climbing power beautifully. However, there are huge form doubts about virtually their whole squad and on the basis of what we've seen in the last week or so I feel happy to discount them from my calculations. AG2R and Lotto Jumbo might outrun their perennial lightweight status in this particular test due to their decent number of climbers.
So, there are 3 potential winners in my eyes - Sky, Movistar and BMC. And its Sky here for me, and I may also look to do a small saver on Movistar as they are a very decent price in my eyes because BMC are so short in the market.
Match Bets Singles
Ag2r v Lampre 4/7
Lotto Jumbo v IAM Cycling 2/1
Sky v BMC 7/4
Lotto Soudal v Orica 1/2
Acca @ nearly 8/1
Sky v BMC 7/4
Lotto Soudal v Orica 1/2
AG2r v Lampre 1/2
Lotto Jumbo v Trek 2/5
It's team time trial time
It's a 28km course from Vannes to Plumulec in Brittany. This is a very unusual TTT. Normally team time trials are very early in grand tours to ensure everyone has a full complement of riders. It is not normal to have a TTT this late. Also, this has followed the most hectic start to a GT that I can remember. To be frank it is astonishing that all four of the main GC teams have 9 riders, given the start we have had. If any team had one or more riders missing they would be at a very big disadvantage.
28km doesnt seem like a long course, but we could see significant time gaps. There are three climbs on the route, including the 3rd at Plumulec which could really see teams suffer. What you want for this course, ideally, is two teams. You need to have 5 climbers. The last climb will be very hard. 1.7km @ 6.2% is a very sttep climb to come at the end of a team time trial. The watch stops on the 5th rider, so your first 4 can only go at the speed of the 5th rider. To give an idea of how steep this final climb is, the last time a road stage finished here it was won by Alejandro Valverde in 2008.
BMC are odds on favourites. They are very strong with several time trial specialists and other rouleurs. The issue for me with their team is that I can only see 4 climbers. They can only go at the speed of whoever will be hanging on (Van Avermaet?). They should podium but they are very short in my eyes. To me this is between Movistar and Sky. Movistar are incredibly strong. They have 3 specialist TTers is Castroviejo, Malori and Dowsett. Dowsett may still be recovering from his crash but this lineup gives them good flat speed. Moreover, they have 5 specialist climbers in Herrada, Valverde, Izaguirre, Quintana and Ancona.
Sky have at least 7 guys that could be there at the finish in theory, which is the most climbing power of any team. They might not have the flat power of BMC or Movistar, so it would not surprise me to see them down at the first checkpoint. I think they will use Rowe, Stannard and Roche or Kennaugh to power them on the flat and then they will use their considerable climbing strength on the final climb at Plumulec to try and claw back time on the teams that might be stronger on the level.
So I think it will be close between Movistar, Sky and BMC with the rest a bit further back. When you have three teams that you think are fairly equally strong it makes sense to go for the one at the bigest price. Personally, I've done Sky at 8/1 and 10/1, although for fairly moderate stakes. I wish I'd gone back in at 14/1 when Padds pushed them out to that price but I'd used both the accounts I have access to to the maximum I could get on. Other teams that look like they could perform fairly well here are Tinkoff and Astana. Astana look to have a very strong team and on paper they really could threaten at least a podium as they seem to combine flat speed and climbing power beautifully. However, there are huge form doubts about virtually their whole squad and on the basis of what we've seen in the last week or so I feel happy to discount them from my calculations. AG2R and Lotto Jumbo might outrun their perennial lightweight status in this particular test due to their decent number of climbers.
So, there are 3 potential winners in my eyes - Sky, Movistar and BMC. And its Sky here for me, and I may also look to do a small saver on Movistar as they are a very decent price in my eyes because BMC are so short in the market.
Match Bets Singles
Ag2r v Lampre 4/7
Lotto Jumbo v IAM Cycling 2/1
Sky v BMC 7/4
Lotto Soudal v Orica 1/2
Acca @ nearly 8/1
Sky v BMC 7/4
Lotto Soudal v Orica 1/2
AG2r v Lampre 1/2
Lotto Jumbo v Trek 2/5
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I'm not a huge fan of team tt's would much rather see individual tt's, the gc is an individual race and so baffles me why you want to do one stage that is based on the whole team?? A rider could lose massive chunks of time here and yet be the strongest rider in the race. A short team tt at the start (stage1 ) when everyone has a full team maybe, but this in the middle instead of a proper long ITT, I just don't get what it proves. Yes it will be good to watch but it is in no way an inndication of who is the best rider and that is what the tour is all about surely.
Anyway rant over, I'm sure I will enjoy watching it, and I think there maybe one or two surprises here. I actually think BMC might not do as well as everyone thinks here, yes they are obviously very good at TTT's but i think they would prefer a much flatter course than this.
I would favour Sky and managed to get a small bet on at 14/1/ and a lot more at 9/2 yesterday, think they have a really solid mix of good TT riders and Good climbers which is what you will need on this course. I'm very confident they will at least podium and think they are the one's to beat. Going out last should also help them knowing what they have to do.
If pushed I think their main rivals here could well be Movistar and Tinkoff, as they also have that good mix of TT riders and climbers.
Gl all.
Anyway rant over, I'm sure I will enjoy watching it, and I think there maybe one or two surprises here. I actually think BMC might not do as well as everyone thinks here, yes they are obviously very good at TTT's but i think they would prefer a much flatter course than this.
I would favour Sky and managed to get a small bet on at 14/1/ and a lot more at 9/2 yesterday, think they have a really solid mix of good TT riders and Good climbers which is what you will need on this course. I'm very confident they will at least podium and think they are the one's to beat. Going out last should also help them knowing what they have to do.
If pushed I think their main rivals here could well be Movistar and Tinkoff, as they also have that good mix of TT riders and climbers.
Gl all.
Cheers Marychain for a great insight (as ever) for this stage, going to take a flyer on Sagan's Tinkoff team for a small punt..gl
Understand your argument Happy but the even the strongest riders are protected most of the way by their teams, bit strange it's stage 9.
I agree with HB -- don't like BMC for this. Actually, I really can't believe how they're such short-priced favourites. Last time I checked they're WCs on a standard pancake-flat course. This is obviously not what's on offer on here, but it's not that obvious that the Books got it right at the start by offering 25/1 for TCS for an E/W basis 2 places 1/3. The 20s on here was available for a brief time, and they have come right in across the boards and actually there was a real panic at one stage -- MC hadn't formed this thread as yet, but I did notify the forum on the stage 8 thread, so I hope some managed to get on -- think they have a real shot, here, but perhaps the glue has gone now.
Good luck to all,
SP
Good luck to all,
SP
Quite happy to see Michael Matthews finish the TT. Would have been so easy to climb off.
IAM looking good visually and posting decent time here. Looks like all 9 men left too.
When I said standard pancake-flat, I actually meant distance, since the Ponferrada course was actually similar to this in some ways, if at a much longer distance over 57kms.
Movistar 18 seconds up on Astana at check 2 but must have lost time there
BMC are going blow up here in the finale, I think. SKY look to be flying. TCS kaput!
oh man thats close. bad luck sky backers. roache cleaned you out :(
And now a rest day...I'm going to be sulking about that all day tomorrow 
Sky matched at 1.01 but only for a few quid. Quite a lot matched between 1.5 & 2.0
Oh I was looking at top 3 market, yes you are correct
1.01 £592
1.02 £14
1.04 £99
1.06 £7
1.07 £71
1.08 £622
1.09 £218 £846
1.10 £2 £4,349
1.11 £2,275
1.12 £70 £433
1.13 £64
1.15 £718
1.19 £214 £144
1.2 £1,929
1.01 £592
1.02 £14
1.04 £99
1.06 £7
1.07 £71
1.08 £622
1.09 £218 £846
1.10 £2 £4,349
1.11 £2,275
1.12 £70 £433
1.13 £64
1.15 £718
1.19 £214 £144
1.2 £1,929
oh **** I forgot to check the odds towards the end - why did it match so low? (there was never any air between the two teams at the time checks).
SKY were a couple of seconds ahead before they had to sit up and wait for Nico.
You're only as strong as your strongest fifth-placed rider and after Froome rode on the front for the majority of the course his speed cost the team in the end, I would suggest, even though by doing so much work he was supposedly resting his teammates from having to do their share. I remembered MC tipping them at 5/1 in Romandie when they won on the tough uphill finish, so was confident BMC wouldn't have done enough in the finale with SKY were going, and stripped them down way too much, but no complaints in the end -- the Books got nervous over TCS so it worked being clued-in to what was going on over deciphering the tricky nature of this course.
Sky were 1.1 to back, not sure to lay.
Sky were 1.1 to back, not sure to lay.
How have sky not won that?? just got home and watched it, Sky smashed it everywhere but the line?? why did Froome sit up and wait for stupid Roche?? Wait for him after the line you donkey! Just cost me the best part of 4 grand!! Not happy they could have easy won that!
Just listened to the Geraint Thomas interview and he is less pleased than me! We won it on every metre apart from the last metre!! A proper **** up!
Happybacker, the time that counts is the 5th rider. If they didnt wait, Roche (and Sky) would loose a couple of seconds more.
from what i have read it would seem Roche was never ment to be the 5th man but infact Pouels who blew up some time earlier. In reality Roche did well to hold on after he would of given a bigger effort early on not expecting to race the whole distance
Apparently a journalist asked Froome what Poels' role was on the team. Froome responded by saying Poels' job was to bring them coffey in the morning.
One of the reasons I thought BMC were too short was I thought they would struggle to get 5 men up the Cadoudal...and it ended up being Sky's weakness and costing me
Great work marychain,as always,keep it going.
Yes 1 second was a blow for many punters,but what an exciting finish it made,and terrific viewing.For my part I was going in small on Movistar,but decided it was too close to call
Carlton Kirby is on his own re. commentaries,the peloton will never catch him.The way he revs. up the finishes on each part of each stage is tip top stuff.Then,when there is a wheel to wheel battle to win the stage he gives it absolutely everything.
Every sport needs a top mikesmith,and Carlton is your man for cycling.
Yes 1 second was a blow for many punters,but what an exciting finish it made,and terrific viewing.For my part I was going in small on Movistar,but decided it was too close to call
Carlton Kirby is on his own re. commentaries,the peloton will never catch him.The way he revs. up the finishes on each part of each stage is tip top stuff.Then,when there is a wheel to wheel battle to win the stage he gives it absolutely everything.
Every sport needs a top mikesmith,and Carlton is your man for cycling.
Absolutely horrible news for Basso.
Diagnosed with testicular cancer.
Diagnosed with testicular cancer.
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