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Stage 8 » Rennes › Mûr-de-bretagne (181.5k)
This is the third of a the three hilltop finishes after Mur de Huy and Le Havre. The stage overall could be catergorised as lumpy, even though there is only the Cat 4 Col du Mont Bel Air ahead of the final climb, but it is the final climb on the Mur de Bretagne that will define the stage. At 2km @ 6.9% this is longer than the Le Havre stage 6 finish, and longer than the Mu de Huy. In terms of overall difficulty it probably ranks somewhere in between the two.
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We start in the city of Rennes today, the capital of Brittany. Rennes is the 10th largest city in France, it is renowned for its telecommunications industry, and is also a major university town. We basically follow the route of the N164 today, the road which runs from Rennes to the West coast of France. However, the route doesn't actually stya on the road, which is a direct route. Instead it meanders, like a big letter "S" on its side. The Col du Mont Bel Air is 1.5km @ 5.7%, and after 100km. Interestingly, the intermediate sprint comes very soon after the descent from this ramp. After the intermediate sprint it there are just over 70km left, and you expect the pace will ramp up on the run-in to the Mur-de-Bretagne.
The Mur de Bretagne is 2km at 6.9%, but that is a little bit misleading. The steepest ramps are on the lowest slopes, where the gradient get up to 10% for the first 1km. After that the gradient eases off significantly. The penultimate 500m average 5.5% and then last 500m average 2.4%. The Tour has only been to Mu de Bretagne once before, when Cadel Evans won stage 4 in 2011. This climb would normally suit someone like Alejandro Valverde but he has struggled in this Tour so far.
The other thing to consider is whether the breakaway stays out today? Normally the GC guys would chase the break down in the hop of stealing time on the final climb, but with the TTT the day after this stage, no-one will want to strain their engines too much and I think the break might get home here today.
This is the third of a the three hilltop finishes after Mur de Huy and Le Havre. The stage overall could be catergorised as lumpy, even though there is only the Cat 4 Col du Mont Bel Air ahead of the final climb, but it is the final climb on the Mur de Bretagne that will define the stage. At 2km @ 6.9% this is longer than the Le Havre stage 6 finish, and longer than the Mu de Huy. In terms of overall difficulty it probably ranks somewhere in between the two.
Profile
We start in the city of Rennes today, the capital of Brittany. Rennes is the 10th largest city in France, it is renowned for its telecommunications industry, and is also a major university town. We basically follow the route of the N164 today, the road which runs from Rennes to the West coast of France. However, the route doesn't actually stya on the road, which is a direct route. Instead it meanders, like a big letter "S" on its side. The Col du Mont Bel Air is 1.5km @ 5.7%, and after 100km. Interestingly, the intermediate sprint comes very soon after the descent from this ramp. After the intermediate sprint it there are just over 70km left, and you expect the pace will ramp up on the run-in to the Mur-de-Bretagne.
The Mur de Bretagne is 2km at 6.9%, but that is a little bit misleading. The steepest ramps are on the lowest slopes, where the gradient get up to 10% for the first 1km. After that the gradient eases off significantly. The penultimate 500m average 5.5% and then last 500m average 2.4%. The Tour has only been to Mu de Bretagne once before, when Cadel Evans won stage 4 in 2011. This climb would normally suit someone like Alejandro Valverde but he has struggled in this Tour so far.
The other thing to consider is whether the breakaway stays out today? Normally the GC guys would chase the break down in the hop of stealing time on the final climb, but with the TTT the day after this stage, no-one will want to strain their engines too much and I think the break might get home here today.
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I can see your logic in thinking a break could stay away MC but i think it's unlikely.
There are two teams that i think will definitely be looking to set up a stage victory here Katusha and Cannondale, they will realsie they are probably going to lose time in the ttt so may as well go after this, and going on the Huy result probably have the 2 strongest riders ( in Rodriguez and Martin) on this sort of climb right now.
I think Purito is great value 10/1 ew first 4 at pp, he looked easily strongest on Huy and was again first of main group over the top of the climb yesterday (after Stybar had kicked clear halfway up). He will know he is likely to lose a fair bit of time sunday, so a stage win and bonus seconds here would be very handy. I was expecting him to be favourite to be honest so am very happy at this price! Not sure why Sagan is fav??
Will have a saver on Dan Martin at 14/1 ew first 4, thought he was a bit unlucky on Huy, got himself way to far back but finished like a train in the last 200m. So if he can get himself better positioned at the beginning of the climb he should have big say in it.
Have also had a small ew on TJVG at 80/1 ew first 4. Just because that price is an insult, he is way bigger priced than any of the other gc contenders yet seems to be riding as well or better than anyone. While it is unlikely he could win a stage like this, he is sure to be right at the front at the start of the climb as BMC have had him there all the time. If he can hang on all the way up, he might at least have asay fora place.
Gl all.
There are two teams that i think will definitely be looking to set up a stage victory here Katusha and Cannondale, they will realsie they are probably going to lose time in the ttt so may as well go after this, and going on the Huy result probably have the 2 strongest riders ( in Rodriguez and Martin) on this sort of climb right now.
I think Purito is great value 10/1 ew first 4 at pp, he looked easily strongest on Huy and was again first of main group over the top of the climb yesterday (after Stybar had kicked clear halfway up). He will know he is likely to lose a fair bit of time sunday, so a stage win and bonus seconds here would be very handy. I was expecting him to be favourite to be honest so am very happy at this price! Not sure why Sagan is fav??
Will have a saver on Dan Martin at 14/1 ew first 4, thought he was a bit unlucky on Huy, got himself way to far back but finished like a train in the last 200m. So if he can get himself better positioned at the beginning of the climb he should have big say in it.
Have also had a small ew on TJVG at 80/1 ew first 4. Just because that price is an insult, he is way bigger priced than any of the other gc contenders yet seems to be riding as well or better than anyone. While it is unlikely he could win a stage like this, he is sure to be right at the front at the start of the climb as BMC have had him there all the time. If he can hang on all the way up, he might at least have asay fora place.
Gl all.
Dan Martin did finish like a train in the previous stage with a similar profile so who knows. GVA has been there or there abouts in pretty much every finish so far also
I hadn't heard that news MC, and your right that is obviously a big blow to Katusha and Rodriguez on a stage like this.
However i would still have him as favourite to win this stage if it is altogether going to the final climb.
Another team that might be willing to chase a break is AG2R if Vuillermoz fancies his chances again as he went very well on Huy and so he should be capable of being competitive here also.
However i would still have him as favourite to win this stage if it is altogether going to the final climb.
Another team that might be willing to chase a break is AG2R if Vuillermoz fancies his chances again as he went very well on Huy and so he should be capable of being competitive here also.
a tweet from Paolini translated to english;
"Sorry, but I had to absorb the blow! I believe and have always believed in the controls, are making the sport more credible, more and more"
"Sorry, but I had to absorb the blow! I believe and have always believed in the controls, are making the sport more credible, more and more"
*humor
A decent break would have to stand some chance if it's only Katusha, Ag2r and Cannondale chasing, Cannondale isn't too bad though.
A decent break would have to stand some chance if it's only Katusha, Ag2r and Cannondale chasing, Cannondale isn't too bad though.
Looking back at the 2011 stage a few things stand out for me. This was 2011 Gilbert and he couldn't put in his beast like attack. He was up there and was hanging on but couldn't throw in one of his full on attacks. So I think it will be too steep for likes of Sagan, Kristoff, Degenkolb. Remember no one could lay a glove on the 2011 Gilbert.
Also Bertie really should have won the stage.....he attacked half way up the climb and was reeled back and then he seemed to mis-judge the finishing line and only failed to reel in Evans, Bertie threw his hands up in the air in disgust, he knew he should have won
Will Bertie make amends? I think it is possible. They could use Sagan as a decoy. Have Sagan attack and force others to chase and Bertie then going over the top.
Also Nibali really should excel in a finish like this. He is the forgotten man. I think this will suit him down to the ground and he was on the prowl the other day before Martin brought him down. Nibali will be determined to make his mark.
Also this is a Valverde finish. People reckon he is out of form but I disagree. He was poorly positioned on the Mur de Huy but rode the cobbles very well and he was about to launch an attack the other day before being caugh up in the Tony Martin crash. Remember Valverde went off at 2/1 for the Mur de Huy stage. I think he represents huge value today.
****Valverde at 13/2
* Contador at 50/1
* Nibali at 70+ on here
Also Bertie really should have won the stage.....he attacked half way up the climb and was reeled back and then he seemed to mis-judge the finishing line and only failed to reel in Evans, Bertie threw his hands up in the air in disgust, he knew he should have won
Will Bertie make amends? I think it is possible. They could use Sagan as a decoy. Have Sagan attack and force others to chase and Bertie then going over the top.
Also Nibali really should excel in a finish like this. He is the forgotten man. I think this will suit him down to the ground and he was on the prowl the other day before Martin brought him down. Nibali will be determined to make his mark.
Also this is a Valverde finish. People reckon he is out of form but I disagree. He was poorly positioned on the Mur de Huy but rode the cobbles very well and he was about to launch an attack the other day before being caugh up in the Tony Martin crash. Remember Valverde went off at 2/1 for the Mur de Huy stage. I think he represents huge value today.
****Valverde at 13/2
* Contador at 50/1
* Nibali at 70+ on here
I've backed Pinot, TJVG and Uran for today. I've also thrown a few pence at some speculative break men.
Timmer & Buchmann @1000, Kruijswik @ 410, Kelderman @ 320, Fedrigo @ 125 & Coppel @ 500
Timmer & Buchmann @1000, Kruijswik @ 410, Kelderman @ 320, Fedrigo @ 125 & Coppel @ 500
Looks like the break is Chavanel, Huzarski, Sicard, and Perichon 3min 55s up so far after 18km, four fairly strong riders particularly Chavanel but i think it needed to be a bigger and stronger break to succeed. I'm now fairly confident it will come down to the main contenders doing battle up the climb to the finish.
The long-range breakaway may stay away, however looking at the little ramps some 7.5kms from the finish -- the Cotes d' Armor -- they present as a perfect staging point for a rider with good sensations to attack and set sail for home, late. There are some likely candidates for this such as the Tekman or Bakelants. I'm not confident with either at ante-post, especially since it is more likely to stay together, in which case the GC men may have another look at each other.
** Rui Costa Won on a similarly tough finish, beating Nibali and Valverde in stage 6 of the Criterium Dauphine when coming into this. Has been riding very consistently so far, and he did win his Nationals RR prior to the Tour, in addition there are some suggestions he will attempt to go for the stage win, here. 66/1 at SP on an E/W looks like good value and is still available. Worthy of very close consideration. Good prospects.
* GVA 5th On stage 6 was a little disappointing after being in a forward position and having the opportunity to go after Stybar. Had been doing very well on stages prior to that, so may pay to overlook. Worthy of another chance. Has come in considerably from 25/1 at SP into 20/1 now. One of the main contenders from a peloton arrowhead. Go close.
* Chris Froome Has looked in very good condition from the outset. Has already taken the psychological advantage and will want to confirm the doubts he has planted in his rivals minds with another strong showing here on the last stage offering bonus time. The best of the GC riders. Has shortened into 13/1 from 14/1 at SP. Makes strong appeal. Watch closely.
1/4* Kwiatkowski Hasn't really been in the picture so far this Tour beyond working for his team as a super-domestique, but this finish does suit and he wouldn't surprise with a strong showing. Has shortened into 33/1 from 50/1 at SP. Has some claims. Consider.
Good luck to all,
SP
** Rui Costa Won on a similarly tough finish, beating Nibali and Valverde in stage 6 of the Criterium Dauphine when coming into this. Has been riding very consistently so far, and he did win his Nationals RR prior to the Tour, in addition there are some suggestions he will attempt to go for the stage win, here. 66/1 at SP on an E/W looks like good value and is still available. Worthy of very close consideration. Good prospects.
* GVA 5th On stage 6 was a little disappointing after being in a forward position and having the opportunity to go after Stybar. Had been doing very well on stages prior to that, so may pay to overlook. Worthy of another chance. Has come in considerably from 25/1 at SP into 20/1 now. One of the main contenders from a peloton arrowhead. Go close.
* Chris Froome Has looked in very good condition from the outset. Has already taken the psychological advantage and will want to confirm the doubts he has planted in his rivals minds with another strong showing here on the last stage offering bonus time. The best of the GC riders. Has shortened into 13/1 from 14/1 at SP. Makes strong appeal. Watch closely.
1/4* Kwiatkowski Hasn't really been in the picture so far this Tour beyond working for his team as a super-domestique, but this finish does suit and he wouldn't surprise with a strong showing. Has shortened into 33/1 from 50/1 at SP. Has some claims. Consider.
Good luck to all,
SP
Lotto Soudal been leading peleton most of last 10km have taken lead down from 4min to 3min 20s, is possible they are working for Gallopin today??
SP, i always read Rui Costa's blog and he says he's still sore from the fall, and he will try to not lose any time.
Lotto chasing is obviously for Gallopin, but i dont see him winning this stage...
Lotto chasing is obviously for Gallopin, but i dont see him winning this stage...
Valverde, Dan Martin
Yates, Vuillermoz, Mollema
Wonder if we'll see the Sky train today? G or Porte maybe allowed to have a go. Unlikely with the TTT tomorrow but are capable.
Yates, Vuillermoz, Mollema
Wonder if we'll see the Sky train today? G or Porte maybe allowed to have a go. Unlikely with the TTT tomorrow but are capable.
Hey EB -- I try and read all the blogs, and Tweets, and news (not so much the Mikkel Conde-type opinions) prior to forming my selections, and Rui Costa is taking this stage quite seriously and expecting a good performance from the information I have. Haven't read anything about him trying not to lose time, no talk of soreness either -- just that he's expecting to be amongst it at the finish, but unsure if he's expectation will be successful, which is fair to some extent. Moreover, I'm in email contact with a gaffer on the ground in France for an Australian tv network covering the race, and he has said the sound bites from LAM are for Costa to try his hand.
Not suggesting it's anywhere near 100% -- this looks like it's going to be chaotic -- but it's enough for me to have a punt and make him my best return.
Not suggesting it's anywhere near 100% -- this looks like it's going to be chaotic -- but it's enough for me to have a punt and make him my best return.
Just come Bak (groan) from my ride to see a much smaller break than I was expecting today
Costa has been riding near the front at least. Lampre probably got a rocket from their team boss/sponsors because they've been barely visible.
Former WC, 3rd at AGR and LBL this year. Could go alright.
You can never be entirely confident with the expectations by a rider for a stage performance prior to the start of the race. They say one thing and go and do something completely different, but Rui Costa is usually thoughtful and serious about his comments, so unless he is just not feeling it I would expect a forward showing.
I believe you'll find he was 4th in both events this year, nugget. I believe I tipped him on this very forum for the WC in 2013 at 50/1, so perhaps he can come good again. If not this stage than stage 16 into Gap looks ideal.
I believe you'll find he was 4th in both events this year, nugget. I believe I tipped him on this very forum for the WC in 2013 at 50/1, so perhaps he can come good again. If not this stage than stage 16 into Gap looks ideal.
Three big engines, Huzarski formerly of the long-range break, but I think they'll get caught once they hit those ramps of the Cotes d' Armor.
Apparently a narrow road approaching as the approach to The Wall is different from 2011 -- so perhaps nervous riding doesn't cause anymore crashes.
Jul 11, 2015 -- 3:59PM, nugget wrote:
4th and 4th not 3rd and 3rd
Yeah I backed him when he won the WC and the two stages he won at the tour that year, he's certainly been good to me.
Jul 11, 2015 -- 3:18PM, nugget wrote:
Valverde, Dan MartinYates, Vuillermoz, MollemaWonder if we'll see the Sky train today? G or Porte maybe allowed to have a go. Unlikely with the TTT tomorrow but are capable.
1. Vuillermoz
2. Dan Martin
3. Valvervede
Nibali in a mess again. Obviously not prepared for this first week.
Well done nugget, excellent podium. I had him on the short list after the Huy, but allowed myself to get distracted with Kwiatkowski, who is starting to lose his condition from all the work he has put in for EQS. Vuillermoz went twice there, very impressive ride. Froome wanted to clear out, probably getting instructions that he had time on Nibali and Quintana, but just couldn't find another gear.
Great stuff Nugget Mollema wasnt far away either 
Nibs looks finnished 
Nibs looks finnished
Just watching the replay -- really a fantastic ride from Vuillermoz, he came from a long way back to find the front of the peloton, and then did all the work from Yates and Geschke, before slotting in behind Froome and attacking violently. Very exciting stuff from the late-starter.
My 5 riders all finished in the top 9 including 1st,2nd,3rd. Cant complain. Sagan(4th) is a points machine, very impressive today. Good for betting because he's always favourite.
Froome certainly looks hungry, figuratively and literally. 23 riders finished in the Froome group, why go to the front? I think he was on the front a bit too early personally. Hope he's not too tired by the 3rd week. He looks very eager. I dunno, maybe he'll win by 10 minutes.
Froome certainly looks hungry, figuratively and literally. 23 riders finished in the Froome group, why go to the front? I think he was on the front a bit too early personally. Hope he's not too tired by the 3rd week. He looks very eager. I dunno, maybe he'll win by 10 minutes.
I was just wondering that myself Nugget about Froome over extending himself a little too much in these early stages, though perhaps it is an early clutch at straws at wondering how he can be beaten as he is in a dream position as opposed to how we all thought he would be after this tricky first week. I still have a thought that Nairo will creep closer and not further away as we get closer to Paris though.
Today Alexis was fantastic, it almost seemed like he got a little micro rest before attaching himself to froome's wheel but his final sustained kick showed real strength. Great effort.
Today Alexis was fantastic, it almost seemed like he got a little micro rest before attaching himself to froome's wheel but his final sustained kick showed real strength. Great effort.
Rui Costa 47th + .45 secs
Kwiatkowski 96th + 3.08
No matter what Costa said or didn't say prior to the start of this stage, the result speaks for itself. Kwiatkowski -- kaput! The WC to be flogged this hard is a real stain against EQS.
Kwiatkowski 96th + 3.08
No matter what Costa said or didn't say prior to the start of this stage, the result speaks for itself. Kwiatkowski -- kaput! The WC to be flogged this hard is a real stain against EQS.
Couldnt see the finish, but i saw the replay and was wondering: WTF was Froome doing there?
Great win by Vuillermoz, had him on my list, but wasnt matched :( he was around @100 if im correct.
SP about Rui Costa, i raced with him, i friend of his terapyst that is in France with him, so you can trust when i say he is still a bit sore (left left btw) from the fall a few days ago.
Great win by Vuillermoz, had him on my list, but wasnt matched :( he was around @100 if im correct.
SP about Rui Costa, i raced with him, i friend of his terapyst that is in France with him, so you can trust when i say he is still a bit sore (left left btw) from the fall a few days ago.
No worries EB. Vuillermoz was 40/1 at SP, but was as low as 25/1 with some Books. Not sure what he got out to on here, although 100 sounds about right for a few tens.
I hope you guys are witnessing this strong go on TCS for the stage 9 TTT -- looks like the Books have been late to realise that this may be a tough, climbing TT course -- or are just nervous about such a distinct possibility -- and only Coral are still offering 25/1.
I hope you guys are witnessing this strong go on TCS for the stage 9 TTT -- looks like the Books have been late to realise that this may be a tough, climbing TT course -- or are just nervous about such a distinct possibility -- and only Coral are still offering 25/1.
nugget 11 Jul 15 15:18
Valverde, Dan Martin
Yates, Vuillermoz, Mollema
Wonder if we'll see the Sky train today? G or Porte maybe allowed to have a go. Unlikely with the TTT tomorrow but are capable.
Wow, good work
Valverde, Dan Martin
Yates, Vuillermoz, Mollema
Wonder if we'll see the Sky train today? G or Porte maybe allowed to have a go. Unlikely with the TTT tomorrow but are capable.
Wow, good work
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