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marychain1
30 Jun 15 10:51
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Date Joined: 05 Apr 05
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Stage 4  »  Seraing  ›  Cambrai   (223.5k)

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This is going to be one of the key stages of the 2015 Tour de France. At 223.5km long, this is the longest stage of the tour and the whilst some will see this as a great chance to make up time or pick up a stage win, some will be having nightmares about the 8 sections and 13.3km of cobbles they're due to face on this stage. We start in Seraing near Liege in Belgium and head West. The only significant climb of the day is the Cat 4 Cote de la Citadelle de Namur which comes after 53km. The peloton hit the first section of cobbles is 1800km long at Pont-à-Celles, north of Charleroi. This is only a warm up for the peloton however.

Roughly 11.5km of the last 46km is cobbled, starting with the secteur pavé d'Artres à Famars which is 1200m long. There are further pavé sections with 40km, 36km and 26km to go before we get to the two final, and largest sections of pavé. Secteur pavé de Fontaine-au-Tertre à Quiévy (2) comes with 23.5km to go and last for 3700m. This section is used in Paris-Roubaix, and although it is normally one of the early sections it carries a 4-star rating in terms of length and difficulty.
Quiévy Pavé could be decisive

Obviously Quiévy comes much nearer the end than it normally is in Paris-Roubaix so that and the difficulty should see this sector have a massive impact on who wins this stage and who makes time on their rivals. Actually, the cobbles themselves on Secteur pavé de Fontaine-au-Tertre à Quiévy aren't generally in the worst state, but 3700m is a very long sector and if it is wet these cobbles will be very slippy. Not only that but they riders have to negotiate a slight rise during this sector. The final Secteur pavé d'Avesnes-les-Aubert à Carnières (1) is 2300m long and by the time they get off this section there will be roughly 10km to go.

This stage should be intruiging. Even if the Grand Tour specialists have managed to get through the crosswinds of Zeeland and the crowds at Huy, this will be a stage where they'll do very well to avoid losing time - its difficult access for the team cars, there will be riders all over the road and any puncture, mechanical or crash will see large time losses. Last year on the cobbles it rained, Froome crashed out (before the cobbles) and Nibali attacked making 2-4 minutes on all the other GC contenders - time he never lost. Lars Boom of Belkin won the stage last year, followed by Fuglsang and Nibali of Astana. That all three of them ride for Astana this year strengthens Nibali's team. Plenty of other cobbled classics riders like Vanmarcke and Cancellara should be freed up by their respective sides to make use of their skills on this sort of course, although others like Stannard, Thomas and Van Avermaet may be kept on domestic duties to help their leaders.

Cambrai is a new arrival city for a tour stage. Cambrai is a thriving city that has been important since the days of the Roman Empire and was heavily damaged in both WWI and WWII. The road into Cambrai has a number of turns, including to sharp left handers after the flame rouge. The finish line is on Rue Pasteur, right outside the town hall.
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Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 2:30 PM BST
EUC just slotted in behind, they have the man in the break, but wouldn't be surprised to see Gautier get involved if all He'll breaks out -- he is a strong rider but has absolutely no experience on the cobbles.
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 2:32 PM BST
Vanmarcke will readily welcome any wind toward the finish -- he can just cleave through the wind in that power-style of his.
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 2:35 PM BST
Incidentally, this market is a plain rip-off so make bids when possible guys. Nobody sticks out as an outright cheap lay to start, either.
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 2:40 PM BST
Sagan -- always one for a laugh, the bloody likeable clown.
Report CJ70 July 7, 2015 2:41 PM BST
Nice uphill sprint by Cav. Good to see he's going for the intermediate sprints even though others were half-hearted there.
Report nugget July 7, 2015 2:44 PM BST
Kristoff given up on intermediates and green? probably a smart move.  Degenkolb didn't seem to want to get out of first gear there, with the stage win in mind perhaps.
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 2:44 PM BST
...Slowed the Gorillas progress with that check, too.
Report nugget July 7, 2015 2:46 PM BST

Jul 7, 2015 -- 8:41AM, CJ70 wrote:


Nice uphill sprint by Cav. Good to see he's going for the intermediate sprints even though others were half-hearted there.


yeah Cav and Coquard the only ones who really went for it, Cav boxing Greipel in nicely there

Report nugget July 7, 2015 2:54 PM BST
Fun begins with 44km to go
Report nugget July 7, 2015 2:55 PM BST
Actually next cobbles are with 44km to go. Things will start to heat up 10-15km before that.
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 2:59 PM BST
I was going to say, 44 kms is about the distance for a break to commit for the finish.
Report NorwichRob July 7, 2015 3:01 PM BST
Just punted Sagan, hope that the cycling gods are with him today for a change..will be great viewing either way..gl all - great intro marychain, cheers.
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 3:02 PM BST
Break has gone out here again -- the calm before the storm!
Report nugget July 7, 2015 3:02 PM BST
I would assume Westra is there to wait for Nibali. The break wont make it, surely.

I wonder if Kristoff will have his trusty pilot fish Paolini.
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 3:05 PM BST
No way the break makes it -- Westra a relay man for Nibali, I agree.
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 3:06 PM BST
Pace slowly coming on -- still the GC teams in attendance with KAT and BMC.
Report ExpertBoy July 7, 2015 3:07 PM BST
Rain coming soon
Report nugget July 7, 2015 3:08 PM BST
looks like it, could be touch and go
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 3:17 PM BST
Peloton turned it off just as quickly...
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 3:25 PM BST
Gap coming down as the pace -- and the rain -- comes!
Report ExpertBoy July 7, 2015 3:27 PM BST
Sagan working for Contador...
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 3:28 PM BST
The peloton won't let up here again, this is just going to be ramped up and up until the cobbles, the wind, and the rain smashes this race apart -- love it!
Report CJ70 July 7, 2015 3:28 PM BST
Rain comes down the Greipel price drifts like a barge Laugh
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 3:29 PM BST
That's what he has said, but Sagan is a racer and I can't believe he'll be on a leash for long...
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 3:30 PM BST
Splits formed from the crashes...
Report CJ70 July 7, 2015 3:30 PM BST
Going to buy Dan Martin some stabilisers.
Report nugget July 7, 2015 3:30 PM BST
Paolini working on the front, doubt he'll be there to lead out Kristoff
Report nugget July 7, 2015 3:32 PM BST
Van Baarle waits for Dan Martin
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 3:33 PM BST
Paolini is a bar-room enforcer -- absolute hardman rider -- he will be wherever he can for as long as he can...
Report nugget July 7, 2015 3:33 PM BST
no doubt
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 3:35 PM BST
Break done -- cobbles approaching and AST attempting to ride off the front...
Report CJ70 July 7, 2015 3:38 PM BST
Quintana looking well back.
Report ExpertBoy July 7, 2015 3:38 PM BST
Nibali looks so comfortable
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 3:38 PM BST
Gaps forming but they'll regroup after this section, I believe.
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 3:39 PM BST
Looks nervous...
Report ExpertBoy July 7, 2015 3:39 PM BST
No sign of Quintana near the front
Report CJ70 July 7, 2015 3:40 PM BST
Van Marcke looking good with Lotto-NL on the front.
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 3:42 PM BST
Sagan prominent also...
Report ExpertBoy July 7, 2015 3:44 PM BST
Boom is such a power house on cobbles...
Report ExpertBoy July 7, 2015 3:45 PM BST
Sagan is doing a great work for Contador
Report nugget July 7, 2015 3:48 PM BST
Get lost Cav
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 3:50 PM BST
sector 4 approaching -- is this where a break will stick?
Report nugget July 7, 2015 3:50 PM BST
Cav working for Martin, good teammate
Report ExpertBoy July 7, 2015 3:51 PM BST
Puncture for Kristoff
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 3:52 PM BST
Nope...pace was too high and pretty straight section!
Report nugget July 7, 2015 3:53 PM BST
last 2 sectors are the longest
Report nugget July 7, 2015 3:55 PM BST
sectors 3,2,1 remain.  3 and 2 are in quick succession and 2 is the hardest of the race I believe.
Report CJ70 July 7, 2015 3:56 PM BST
Quintana supposedly in the first group. I can't see the bugger though.
Report ExpertBoy July 7, 2015 3:58 PM BST
He is there.
Report GoBallistic July 7, 2015 4:00 PM BST
Yep he was on Cav's wheel in the last secteur and doing surprisingly well
Report the swede July 7, 2015 4:01 PM BST
froome all over the place as usual
Report nugget July 7, 2015 4:03 PM BST
Quintana flying
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 4:03 PM BST
Sep is serious -- looking to get matched -- can't ignore him here!
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 4:06 PM BST
sector 2 -- as nugget suggests -- the toughest!
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 4:07 PM BST
peleton not breaking...
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 4:08 PM BST
this is playing into the hands of the hard men...
Report nugget July 7, 2015 4:09 PM BST
Usual suspects all looking good
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 4:11 PM BST
Sep gets a flat...
Report GoBallistic July 7, 2015 4:12 PM BST
Looks like a bunch sprint.  Too much headwind
Report ExpertBoy July 7, 2015 4:12 PM BST
Pinot :S
Report nugget July 7, 2015 4:14 PM BST
Sep can find a mechanical
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 4:15 PM BST
Bunch sprint more likely but a beast attack on the final sector is still possible they've had it easy here for a few kms...
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 4:16 PM BST
Haven't heard or seen Elmiger -- Sep may find it back into this picture!
Report nugget July 7, 2015 4:16 PM BST
Valverde on a good day it seems
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 4:18 PM BST
Valverde doesn't have the characteristics to win here, I wouldn't think!
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 4:19 PM BST
GVA in a top position here to solo...
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 4:20 PM BST
That headwind will hurt -- needs to attack and draw someone out with strength!
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 4:23 PM BST
Whoa...
Report nugget July 7, 2015 4:24 PM BST
Degenkolb covering moves
Tony needs to wait and launch late
Report nugget July 7, 2015 4:26 PM BST
Degenkolb vs Bouhanni
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 4:30 PM BST
Cav here looks like a top pick!
Report nugget July 7, 2015 4:31 PM BST
vs Cavendish
Report ExpertBoy July 7, 2015 4:31 PM BST
vsCavendish vs Sagan...
Report nugget July 7, 2015 4:31 PM BST
Sagan had to bring that second group back by himself
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 4:31 PM BST
Done nothing from what i can tell -- didn't even realise he was here -- but a bunch sprint with wind -- looks good!
Report nugget July 7, 2015 4:32 PM BST
go Tony
Report nugget July 7, 2015 4:32 PM BST
Panzerwagon!!!
Report CJ70 July 7, 2015 4:33 PM BST
SKY letting Tony go. Nobody else bothered, surely he's got this?
Report ExpertBoy July 7, 2015 4:33 PM BST
Tony Martin!
Report nugget July 7, 2015 4:33 PM BST
Cofidis and Giant with teammates
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 4:33 PM BST
Meant Cav -- but the Panzerwagon is eating up the ground!
Report ExpertBoy July 7, 2015 4:35 PM BST
Great win, this men is a beast!
Report CJ70 July 7, 2015 4:36 PM BST
Great to see him finally get yellow.
Report CJ70 July 7, 2015 4:39 PM BST
Punch up between Madiot and Pinot tonight? Devil
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 4:39 PM BST
Phenomenal solo performance by the Panzerwagon, but was sold on a bunch sprint, so was adding Cav as he took off!
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 4:40 PM BST
Won it on Trentin's bike -- they are such an impressive team!
Report casemoney July 7, 2015 4:40 PM BST
Only laid out £30 today Tony  after getting involved yesterday Tony Martin    90    £6.00    £534.00      Laugh
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 4:41 PM BST
Well done casemoney -- good to hear!
Report NorwichRob July 7, 2015 4:41 PM BST
Wd winners
Report nugget July 7, 2015 4:43 PM BST
**** yeah Tony
Report CJ70 July 7, 2015 4:45 PM BST
Great win, casemoney.
Report nugget July 7, 2015 4:47 PM BST
Good work Tony just like we planned it
Report nugget July 7, 2015 4:50 PM BST
Big ups to Chris "the all-rounder" Froome for still being there at the end so Martin had to go for it.
Report nugget July 7, 2015 4:53 PM BST

Jul 7, 2015 -- 9:50AM, nugget wrote:


Cav working for Martin, good teammate


and people say Cav is a bad teammate

Report casemoney July 7, 2015 5:06 PM BST
Helps out lads Long way to go Happy I was actually out and came back in with kms to go Happy
Report casemoney July 7, 2015 5:07 PM BST
2 kms
Report nugget July 7, 2015 5:11 PM BST
Came back to a nice surprise I'm sure!
Nice work case, only stage 4, 17 more to go. Keep it going.
Report nugget July 7, 2015 5:17 PM BST
nugget • July 7, 2015 10:59 AM BST
Tony Martin missed out on the Yellow Jersey
by 5 sec in stage 1
by 3 sec in stage 2
by 1 sec in stage 3

If Froome is still in the bunch towards the end Martin might take things into his own hands and launch an attack himself.  He is currently 90's on the exchange, shorter with the bookies.  If Froome is dropped he will probably be more conservative and attempt to just follow wheels.



You can't afford to give him an inch otherwise you can shut the gate! Too powerful, that's why the call him the Panzer.
Report SwingingPick July 7, 2015 5:25 PM BST
Hands down the best analysis I've read from you nugget -- brilliant work mate -- thanks for the reminder.
Report nugget July 7, 2015 5:27 PM BST
no problem
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