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Stage 4 » Seraing › Cambrai (223.5k)
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This is going to be one of the key stages of the 2015 Tour de France. At 223.5km long, this is the longest stage of the tour and the whilst some will see this as a great chance to make up time or pick up a stage win, some will be having nightmares about the 8 sections and 13.3km of cobbles they're due to face on this stage. We start in Seraing near Liege in Belgium and head West. The only significant climb of the day is the Cat 4 Cote de la Citadelle de Namur which comes after 53km. The peloton hit the first section of cobbles is 1800km long at Pont-à-Celles, north of Charleroi. This is only a warm up for the peloton however.
Roughly 11.5km of the last 46km is cobbled, starting with the secteur pavé d'Artres à Famars which is 1200m long. There are further pavé sections with 40km, 36km and 26km to go before we get to the two final, and largest sections of pavé. Secteur pavé de Fontaine-au-Tertre à Quiévy (2) comes with 23.5km to go and last for 3700m. This section is used in Paris-Roubaix, and although it is normally one of the early sections it carries a 4-star rating in terms of length and difficulty.
Quiévy Pavé could be decisive
Obviously Quiévy comes much nearer the end than it normally is in Paris-Roubaix so that and the difficulty should see this sector have a massive impact on who wins this stage and who makes time on their rivals. Actually, the cobbles themselves on Secteur pavé de Fontaine-au-Tertre à Quiévy aren't generally in the worst state, but 3700m is a very long sector and if it is wet these cobbles will be very slippy. Not only that but they riders have to negotiate a slight rise during this sector. The final Secteur pavé d'Avesnes-les-Aubert à Carnières (1) is 2300m long and by the time they get off this section there will be roughly 10km to go.
This stage should be intruiging. Even if the Grand Tour specialists have managed to get through the crosswinds of Zeeland and the crowds at Huy, this will be a stage where they'll do very well to avoid losing time - its difficult access for the team cars, there will be riders all over the road and any puncture, mechanical or crash will see large time losses. Last year on the cobbles it rained, Froome crashed out (before the cobbles) and Nibali attacked making 2-4 minutes on all the other GC contenders - time he never lost. Lars Boom of Belkin won the stage last year, followed by Fuglsang and Nibali of Astana. That all three of them ride for Astana this year strengthens Nibali's team. Plenty of other cobbled classics riders like Vanmarcke and Cancellara should be freed up by their respective sides to make use of their skills on this sort of course, although others like Stannard, Thomas and Van Avermaet may be kept on domestic duties to help their leaders.
Cambrai is a new arrival city for a tour stage. Cambrai is a thriving city that has been important since the days of the Roman Empire and was heavily damaged in both WWI and WWII. The road into Cambrai has a number of turns, including to sharp left handers after the flame rouge. The finish line is on Rue Pasteur, right outside the town hall.
Map
Profile
Last kms
This is going to be one of the key stages of the 2015 Tour de France. At 223.5km long, this is the longest stage of the tour and the whilst some will see this as a great chance to make up time or pick up a stage win, some will be having nightmares about the 8 sections and 13.3km of cobbles they're due to face on this stage. We start in Seraing near Liege in Belgium and head West. The only significant climb of the day is the Cat 4 Cote de la Citadelle de Namur which comes after 53km. The peloton hit the first section of cobbles is 1800km long at Pont-à-Celles, north of Charleroi. This is only a warm up for the peloton however.
Roughly 11.5km of the last 46km is cobbled, starting with the secteur pavé d'Artres à Famars which is 1200m long. There are further pavé sections with 40km, 36km and 26km to go before we get to the two final, and largest sections of pavé. Secteur pavé de Fontaine-au-Tertre à Quiévy (2) comes with 23.5km to go and last for 3700m. This section is used in Paris-Roubaix, and although it is normally one of the early sections it carries a 4-star rating in terms of length and difficulty.
Quiévy Pavé could be decisive
Obviously Quiévy comes much nearer the end than it normally is in Paris-Roubaix so that and the difficulty should see this sector have a massive impact on who wins this stage and who makes time on their rivals. Actually, the cobbles themselves on Secteur pavé de Fontaine-au-Tertre à Quiévy aren't generally in the worst state, but 3700m is a very long sector and if it is wet these cobbles will be very slippy. Not only that but they riders have to negotiate a slight rise during this sector. The final Secteur pavé d'Avesnes-les-Aubert à Carnières (1) is 2300m long and by the time they get off this section there will be roughly 10km to go.
This stage should be intruiging. Even if the Grand Tour specialists have managed to get through the crosswinds of Zeeland and the crowds at Huy, this will be a stage where they'll do very well to avoid losing time - its difficult access for the team cars, there will be riders all over the road and any puncture, mechanical or crash will see large time losses. Last year on the cobbles it rained, Froome crashed out (before the cobbles) and Nibali attacked making 2-4 minutes on all the other GC contenders - time he never lost. Lars Boom of Belkin won the stage last year, followed by Fuglsang and Nibali of Astana. That all three of them ride for Astana this year strengthens Nibali's team. Plenty of other cobbled classics riders like Vanmarcke and Cancellara should be freed up by their respective sides to make use of their skills on this sort of course, although others like Stannard, Thomas and Van Avermaet may be kept on domestic duties to help their leaders.
Cambrai is a new arrival city for a tour stage. Cambrai is a thriving city that has been important since the days of the Roman Empire and was heavily damaged in both WWI and WWII. The road into Cambrai has a number of turns, including to sharp left handers after the flame rouge. The finish line is on Rue Pasteur, right outside the town hall.
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Replies: 141
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I've backed Greipel 20/1 tomorrow he has looked really strong and fast so far, and he was immense on the cobbles this spring.
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I think it will be very hard to stop Degenkolb and Kristoff. They have no GC obligations, no riders to look after, no other responsibilities. And when you look back at the classic season these two guys were head and shoulders above everyone else.
Last cobbles are 10km from finish and if these two are not shaken off then it's game over |
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I agree. Degenkolb 13/2 (4 places) and Kristoff 7/1 (5 places) were available not long ago. I missed out on the Degenkolb price but took some 9/2 win only. I wasn't going to back Kristoff but its rude not to at 7/1 5 places.
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Had to take Geraint Thomas at 66/1 4 places as well, he might be looking after Froome but Stannard and Rowe could be enough firepower for Froome to let G have a proper go tomorrow.
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Thought I might get a huge price about Senechal tomorrow but 80/1 only so far...
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It's unoriginal but it's very hard to see past Degenkolb tomorrow, winner on the cobbles this year and looked pretty strong in the intermediate sprint today so appears to be still in good form. He is favourite but 9/2 seems a fair enough price.
At a huge price have had a little on Luke Rowe 300/1 ew 4 places. Looked very strong at paris-roubaix this year and though looking after froome will be the priority, he maybe more likely to be given a free hand in the finale than G or Stannard. |
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Trouble getting matched.
Degenkolb is the obvious candidate but meh too short for me on cobbles. Will pick him up later in the race if there's a decent opportunity. Stybar should be the Etixx man here and I'm surprised he's as big as he is. Vanmarcke and Sagan at similar prices? The former has no form at all this year and the latter is always short because of name pull. For me there's an absolute gem in that market that's being ignored. |
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** Zdenek Stybar 2nd in PR. Part of the working part in the EQS machine on the last two stages, but finishing his races off well. Most likely candidate in the team to be given some freedom to stamp down an attack or go with one. Opened at 16/1 with PP and now shortening significantly across the boards, with b365 offering best at 11/1. Exciting prospects. Keep safe.
1/2* Martin Elmiger 5th in PR. Last start prior to the Tour, finished with Spartacus some 19 secs down in his Nationals RR when 6th. Was in the breakaway yesterday, so is making suggestions he has the condition for a good result. Was overlooked when he opened up at 125/1 with PP, and has come in significantly across the boards, with skybt going lowest at 40/1, PP have rectified their error by going 80/1, and various have him best at 100/1. Good E/W value. Makes some appeal for a podium result. Do not discount lightly. GVA 3rd in PR. Last start prior to the Tour, he made the podium in his Nationals RR. Surprisingly, was right amongst the podium chances in the stage 2 bunch sprint when finishing 6th behind teammate Oss. Was in a forward position on the Huy yesterday, although he faded to finish in 15th place some 22 secs down, nevertheless that may sharpen him up for this. Will be on TJVG watch duty, so may not necessarily get his opportunity to role with the moves. Opened at 9/1 with PP, and is on the drift with BV taking him on at 14/1. Should be 30/1, and may be trading higher IR. Dangerous contender. Take on trust. Peter Sagan Is much better than his 23rd in PR this year. His best result in PR is a 6th place finish in 2014. Last start prior to the Tour, he claimed both the RR and ITT Nationals titles when racing against inferior opposition. Had two wins and two second-place finishes in Suisse before that, and was simply marvellous in California when winning the GC in May. Seems to be holding his impressive form for a long way. Just missed snatching a big win when fighting with the outright sprinters on stage 2, here. Has stated that he is here to support Bertie, however he is likely to find himself amongst the race-winning moves given his advanced condition. Opened at 7/1 with PP, and has drifted out to 8/1 with various. Should be 14/1, but may be trading much higher IR. Coming into this at the right time. Take on trust. |
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The usual suspects. Degenkolb, Van Avermaet, Boom, Stybar, Vanmarcke, Sagan, Kristoff, Thomas. Doubt Cav can make it, Greipel maybe but leaning towards yes, Demare maybe but seems in poor form. EBH is in good form and hasn't spent much energy yet, he usually struggles over classics distance but this is a bit shorter than that at 223.5km.
A lot of the good cobbles riders might have team orders to look after their GC riders interests. GVA for TJVG, Boom for Nibali, Sagan for Contador, Stybar for Uran/T.Martin(yellow jersey), Thomas for Froome. This might increase the chances of a big bunch sprint at the finish in Cambrai. Also Gallopin, GVA and Sagan might have an eye on Yellow being only 26, 28 and 31 seconds down on Froome respectively. You would have to think this stage is a big goal for Degenkolb and he will have full team support. The same goes for Kristoff but to a lesser extent and I expect Sep Vanmarcke to be let off the leash and feature prominently (barring bad luck which he can find). A few outsiders for me, Rowe 250/1, was 8th at Paris-Roubaix this year. Jungels 800/1, former Paris-Roubaix juniors winner. Van Baarle 500/1 has had some good results showing a good racing brain. The latter two were very good on stage 1 and could have enough to hold off a small bunch with a well timed late attack. Etixx rider Trentin is another 100/1+ shot who is in the right team for a stage like this and has a fast finish. Crosswinds are forecast (westerly) for the portion of the race which include 5 of the cobbled sections. This should make things interesting indeed. However shortly after with about 20km or so remaining the riders will turn towards Cambrai and will be riding into a headwind which will increase the chances of a larger bunch sprint finish. There are two 90 degree turns in the final km and a 3% rise for the final 500m kick to the line. All in all a pretty tough stage with the potential to be even more epic if it rains. |
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Would add Jungels nugget -- looks an exciting rider at a juicy price, but not much experience over the cobbles with an 84th place finish best in 2013 in PR.
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Not much outlay required at that price and would of only been 20y/o in 2013. Did win Paris-Roubaix juniors but has avoided the "northern classics" the last two seasons and done the hillier Ardennes classics instead which could go against him here. Probably needs things to go his way but wouldn't surprise me if he won a grand tour stage in the not too distant future.
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No one fancy Boom/Nibali? Nibali 1'38 down on Froome... and as MC said they finished 1 and 2 over cobbles last year
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Nibali needs to take some time today I would of thought. Astana wil ride aggressively for sure. Uran injured apparently so more of a free role for Stybar perhaps, in any case I expect Etixx to also be aggressive in an effort to shed riders and put T.Martin in yellow.
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This looks for the usual suspects - Degenkolb, Kristoff, Van Avermaet, Stybar, Vanmarcke, Sagan, or riders like Boom or Thomas if their work isnt needed for their leaders. I took some long shots just for fun and will be looking forward for live to see what happens.
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Got matched on Sebastian Langeveld at 150's. Should have no team orders and although no form this year he's a proven contender on cobbled classics.
Would have taken a punt on Debuscherre as well, although with Griepel that short in the market and tipped I suspect he may be on domestique duty |
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Probably not a lot of action in the first 175km due to headwind. Also headwind for final 20km.
However there is a chance for some rain in the afternoon. If it rains, Boom and Vanmarke are noted wet trackers. |
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Tony Martin missed out on the Yellow Jersey
by 5 sec in stage 1 by 3 sec in stage 2 by 1 sec in stage 3 If Froome is still in the bunch towards the end Martin might take things into his own hands and launch an attack himself. He is currently 90's on the exchange, shorter with the bookies. If Froome is dropped he will probably be more conservative and attempt to just follow wheels. Prices for rider to be in yellow after stage; Sagan 2.9 (+0:31) GVA 3.3 (+0:28) T.Martin 3.3 (+0:01) Gallopin 7 (+0:26) Froome 12 (leader) Stybar 15 (+1:04) |
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Bookies obviously think Froome will lose the yellow jersey today. Question is if he misses the selection of the lead group, what other GC riders if any can make it into that lead group and take time back on Froome? Nibali probably the most likely..
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The Froome price seems to be dictated by him crashing out on the cobble stage last year? I have a theory that casual bettors are putting 2+2 together and coming out with 5.
If it's a headwind the chances that a big pack containing GC guys will still be in and around the top 10 surely has to be quite high? |
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Yeah you're probably right about Froome regarding his price but he looks a lot more convincing this year. Last year he looked off, crashing multiple times and was out of the race before he even got to the cobbles.
Regarding the headwind it makes it harder for smaller groups to stay away, riders who want to win the stage won't want to be hitting the wind too much or too early. Probably more importantly for me is between cobble sectors 6,5,4,3,2 there will be mixture of cross/headwind and cross/tailwind so there is a good chance of some gaps forming. Regardless of wind this is a hard stage to be doing in a 3 week tour. |
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I think Sky will be happy to lose the yellow jersey today.
Etixx will almost certainly blow this wide open today.....they have targeted this stage......will Sky chase them? No. Sky will be watching Astana and Timkoff like a hawk and will be happy just to not lose ground. Froome sits too high up on his bike for cobbles, bike vibrating all over the place. Nibali and BERTIE are far better bike handlers than Froome Nibali needs to put at least a minute into Froome today IMHO.......unlike BERTIE and Quintana, I can't Nibali putting time into the others in the mountains. Today is massive for Nibali |
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Sky will be happy to lose the jersey today but if Nibali or Contador catch the "Etixx express" to Cambrai Froome could lose minutes. You could be right about Froome though, he is still an unknown on the cobbles, no matter how good his teammates are on them they can only go as fast as Froome can handle. I definitely agree with you about Nibali, Astana have to be aggressive today.
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Contador looked like a fish out of water on the cobbles last year & I can't see Quintana enjoying them either.
Nibali will look to take take time back today & I have little doubt he will on those two. Froome has a terrific team to look after him , and I doubt he has any fear of the surface . |
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I think the thing with Froome everyone forgets is that he spent most of his early biking life riding around the Great Rift Valley on dirt and rock tracks. Markedly different from cobbles I appreciate.
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Contador was pretty damn good on the cobbles in 2009.
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wow, lots of riders loosing ground with 120km yet to go
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Raining. No cobbles for a while so it may pass before they get there.
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Puncture for Contador and Uran, but lucky to be now rather than later.
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Maybe he was just changing bike?
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Maybe he was just changing bike?
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Lots of wind at the finish, this could be a huge factor
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UCI probably announced an impromptu bike check again
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It'll be interesting to witness the team which decides to get busy and bring these spoilers back...
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BMC had all their riders on the front before on that last cobble section. They actually look pretty strong at the moment.
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Race radio reporting 4 Astana riders including Nibali changing bikes, to the ones with the motor in them.
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Contador as well
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TGA rider for Degenkolb with the MOV team on the front as they make small inroads into this break. BMC with GC teams in the wings.
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KAT for Kristoff not far away, and COF (for Bouhanni!?) there in a prominent position.
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