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Stage 1 (ITT) » Utrecht › Utrecht (13.8k)
This is an ITT rather than a prologue, and is the only ITT in the whole race. It's the 6th time that the Tour has started in Holland, and the first time it has been to Utrecht. At 13.8km this is quite long for an opening stage TT, as the organisers have often preferred prologues. This is actually the 4th longest opening stage time trial, but at this length we shouldn't see very big time gaps. It will favour the rouleurs as the route is very flat, and fairly uncomplicated. Tony Martin might prefer something a bit longer than this but will quite rightly go in as favourite. Fabian Cancellara, who won the prologue in the Tour de Suisse, and home favourite Tom Dumoulin will be the biggest threats to Martin's bid to take the first yellow jersey of the 2015 Tour. Chris Froome will look to get his tour of to a good start by putting some time into the other GC contenders, but it is unlikely he will be able to gain more than 20 seconds or so here.
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Utrecht
Utrecht is the fourth biggest town in Holland after Amsterdam, Rotterdam and The Hague. It has a city centre with structures dating back to the middle ages, with several beautiful canals and bridges. With the Dutch fans cheering him on, this might be a good opportunity for Tom Dumoulin to take a seat at the top table of Grand Tour time trialling.
This is an ITT rather than a prologue, and is the only ITT in the whole race. It's the 6th time that the Tour has started in Holland, and the first time it has been to Utrecht. At 13.8km this is quite long for an opening stage TT, as the organisers have often preferred prologues. This is actually the 4th longest opening stage time trial, but at this length we shouldn't see very big time gaps. It will favour the rouleurs as the route is very flat, and fairly uncomplicated. Tony Martin might prefer something a bit longer than this but will quite rightly go in as favourite. Fabian Cancellara, who won the prologue in the Tour de Suisse, and home favourite Tom Dumoulin will be the biggest threats to Martin's bid to take the first yellow jersey of the 2015 Tour. Chris Froome will look to get his tour of to a good start by putting some time into the other GC contenders, but it is unlikely he will be able to gain more than 20 seconds or so here.
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Utrecht
Utrecht is the fourth biggest town in Holland after Amsterdam, Rotterdam and The Hague. It has a city centre with structures dating back to the middle ages, with several beautiful canals and bridges. With the Dutch fans cheering him on, this might be a good opportunity for Tom Dumoulin to take a seat at the top table of Grand Tour time trialling.
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Tending to agree with MC here on The Butterfly being a major threat for the win. Home crowd and home soil are going to be big factors for his motivation, however his impressive Suisse form has evidently come off after his 4th place finish in his National Champs ITT. The Panzerwagon meanwhile, crushed his National Champs ITT race last Friday, and will be advantaged by his ability of getting the power down hard after the turns and finding top speed swiftly. More than happy to take the better than Evens on here on an outright basis, for a solid opportunity at opening this race with a winning account.
dom888 -- raises the idea of Froome being value to win (on the main thread), but with over a dozen tight turns along narrow sections of road there is no way he is going to take chances by riding overly hard, and I cannot seriously entertain any notion of his winning presence over this course.
Lovely thread MC, really covers everything the forum needs to know to make an informed decision. Great flavour.
Good luck to all,
SP
dom888 -- raises the idea of Froome being value to win (on the main thread), but with over a dozen tight turns along narrow sections of road there is no way he is going to take chances by riding overly hard, and I cannot seriously entertain any notion of his winning presence over this course.
Lovely thread MC, really covers everything the forum needs to know to make an informed decision. Great flavour.
Good luck to all,
SP
Don't think this type of enclosed course can possibly suit Turbo Durbo. If we're talking suitability than I think the Flowerman is better suited over this type of course if he comes out hot, but even if he does than he is a class down in this company, and I really can't look past the Panzerwagon.
Probably between Martin and Dumoulin but would probs have Martin on top in a tipping comp and certainly wont be red on him. Riders like Sagan, Kwiatkowski, Cancellara, Boasson Hagen, Kelderman, G and Van Avermaet will all be looking for good rides with a possible eye towards getting the yellow jersey in the coming stages. Malori is a touch of value at 20's. Cancellara is at 10/1 but I think him at 7/1 to wear yellow at anytime is a better bet.
I've done Cancellara to wear yellow at any time as well 7/1
Out of the earlier starters Dennis and Castrioviejo go off together. Dennis at 22's and Castrioviejo at 1000. I'll have a bit of the latter and hoping he pips Vermote, Durbridge & Dennis for the early lead.
Martin goes off at 16.44 with Malori not long after. Think Malori is overpriced already but should drift further if Tony is setting the timing screens alight.
Else I'm going in play. Good luck all.
Martin goes off at 16.44 with Malori not long after. Think Malori is overpriced already but should drift further if Tony is setting the timing screens alight.
Else I'm going in play. Good luck all.
I've been having a play with the pre-off match bets on Betfair SP. I've put my max stakes on each match up for a bit of fun.
A few value bets in there that I expect to lose but lets see how many I get right at the end of the day.
http://gyazo.com/61664a0ade4c8d48c83028194b38476e
A few value bets in there that I expect to lose but lets see how many I get right at the end of the day.
http://gyazo.com/61664a0ade4c8d48c83028194b38476e
Think Nibali is a big price to beat Bertie here myself.
Three for me would be Nibali (v Bertie), Froome (v TJVG) & Cancellara (v Malori).
Three for me would be Nibali (v Bertie), Froome (v TJVG) & Cancellara (v Malori).
There is a massive arb in the Stage 1 Nibali v Bertie head to head market
Skybet have Quintana at 2.38 to beat Pinot as there shouldn't be that price difference between them in a TT. For all his pure climber status Quintana isn't hopeless and Pinot sort of is but getting better.
I expect Bertie to be Armstrong-lite today.
I expect Bertie to be Armstrong-lite today.
Jul 4, 2015 -- 5:10AM, marychain1 wrote:
There is a massive arb in the Stage 1 Nibali v Bertie head to head market
It's not there. BF price is wrong on oddschecker.
Yeah you're right, it's linking through to the overall head to head, not the stage market
Winner to come from:
Dumoulin
Malori
Cancellara
Dennis
Dowsett
Chavenel
Tuft
Durbridge
Brandle
Boassen Hagen
All others a lay including Martin for me!
Dumoulin
Malori
Cancellara
Dennis
Dowsett
Chavenel
Tuft
Durbridge
Brandle
Boassen Hagen
All others a lay including Martin for me!
Wouldn't be surprised to see some of the sprinters go surprisingly well here too
Yep could see Cavendish being competitive top ten a distinct possibility for him.
Won't even attempt to spell his name but Tekla's national jersey looks great.
I try a Hamilton to Win quali, golden Horn, Martin trebble
And small Place froome
And small Place froome
365 have a finishing position market..
Taken Malori 1-3 at 3.25 and Brandle 10th or worst at 1.95
Taken Malori 1-3 at 3.25 and Brandle 10th or worst at 1.95
Lotto Jumbo flying, will interested to see how Kelderman goes in the dutch national jersey. They also might be worth a look in the team classification.
Good time by Dennis. 365 were offering 2.62 for him to beat Van Emden after the first split.
Easy to forget that Rohan Dennis is a former Hour Record holder in Grenchen -- top ride that -- looks like that'll be a competitive time for the class riders to come!
Incidentally, this is the least amount of ITT-ing since 1947 for the Tour.
Judging by MC's last pic of the inner-town scene and new world cobbles I thought this course might be more enclosed than what it is, but if the Panzerwagon has good sensations he'll feel very fast through some of these bends and the way the crowds are stacking up over the riders almost. It actually suits him quite well, I think. Would go in again but at Odds On there is no more value. We'll see how he goes.
Not a bad time for Quintana considering. Only a minute off the pace.
Apparently The Butterfly had a sore throat in his National Champs ITT and that's the reason for his poor performance -- no news how he is now, though. He's had ten days to recover, shouldn't be a major problem, but I'm not keen to add him.
Reports that the wind is dropping -- I guess nugget is no American-Indian! 
Really high average speeds. Suits the big engines. Panzer should smash
Great run by Pinot, underestimated how much his TT'ing has improved.
Kelderman beats Jungels in the head to head
Really good time by Thibaut Pinot
Really good time by Thibaut Pinot
Reports that the wind is picking up on the finish line -- confirmation that nugget's rain dance is having some effect! 
Pinot only 41sec down on Dennis. Quintana 1'01" down. Wonder what Froome will do? Sky riders have been a little disappointing so far.
Dumoulin was probably rooted from his efforts at the Tour de Suisse, he went pretty deep there. Smart move to not go too hard at the nationals. You'd think he would be fine now. I'd say he will beat Dennis.
Looks like it'll be within 3 secs one way or the other...
Looks like it'll be within 3 secs one way or the other...
8 behind maybe lost 2 behind Machado.
When do we start thinking Dennis can do this?
When do we start thinking Dennis can do this?
I thought the time would be competitive and it is so far, but as the Panzerwagon goes on to hit that tunnel of people after the check he'll go blitz mode, I believe.
He got tight on Machado, but was fading prior to that from this angle.
Who is believing the talk about a Sagan win? Not me, that would just be strange.
Everybody out so far have lost time from that check -- Panzerwagon does look in control, though.
Not a fan of Sagan's TT ability. Any match up I've backed against Sagan but I'm getting most wrong so wouldn't read much into that
Wasn't looking good for the Panzerwagon -- the diesel engine went kapoot! 
So now would be the time to think Dennis has this, I guess.
Spartacus like to show up on the big scenes, but I think nugget has a point there with the tailwind.
Malori well down and Cancellara has gone a bit Andy Schleck. Could be a big surprise but think Dennis probably has this now.
The rain usually comes on the wind, but Spartacus is having a good ride here.
Not the way I wanted to start obviously, but missed the wind change there and that's been the major factor. Loss to start!
CJ70 04 Jul 15 13:53
Good time by Dennis. 365 were offering 2.62 for him to beat Van Emden after the first split. He brought the wind...
Good time by Dennis. 365 were offering 2.62 for him to beat Van Emden after the first split. He brought the wind...
In retrospect the ride by The Butterfly -- about the time CJ70 posed the Dennis question -- was the evidence that the advantage was in Dennis' favour, even though the Panzerwagon was just going out. They would always be pretty close on this type of course, and Dennis had the former by 8 secs. Good to get that bit of inattention out of the system, early. 
Kiatkowski not at the same level as last year. Disappointing time from him, maybe the 24hr drug testing scared him off
Some notables
Kelderman 30"
Thomas 33"
Mollema 37"
Uran 40"
Pinot 41"
Sagan 41"
TJVG 42"
Froome 50"
Valverde 56"
Contador 58"
Quintana 1'01"
Kelderman 30"
Thomas 33"
Mollema 37"
Uran 40"
Pinot 41"
Sagan 41"
TJVG 42"
Froome 50"
Valverde 56"
Contador 58"
Quintana 1'01"
Thomas v Kwiatkowski. Kwiatkowski lost by 33s -£5.00
Malori v Cancellara. Malori lost by 23s -£4.00
Jungels v Kelderman. Jungels lost by 8s -£5.00
Froome v Van Garderen. Froome lost by 8s -£5.00
Casttroviejo v Dowsett. Castroviejo won by 13 seconds £5.00
Contador v Nibali. Contador lost by 15 seconds -£5.00
Cummings v Barta. Cummings won by 63 seconds £5.00
Dumoulin v Martin. Martin won by 3 seconds £2.50
Cummings v Barta. Cummings wony by 63 seconds 8.15
Dowsett v Brandle. Dowsett lost by 13 seconds -£6.00
Quintana v Pinot. Quintana -£2.25
Malori to finish top 3 -£2.22
Brandle to finish outside top 10 -£5.25
All on limited accounts so it matters not a jot but that's an awful performance!! Nearly £20 down with bookies.
Malori v Cancellara. Malori lost by 23s -£4.00
Jungels v Kelderman. Jungels lost by 8s -£5.00
Froome v Van Garderen. Froome lost by 8s -£5.00
Casttroviejo v Dowsett. Castroviejo won by 13 seconds £5.00
Contador v Nibali. Contador lost by 15 seconds -£5.00
Cummings v Barta. Cummings won by 63 seconds £5.00
Dumoulin v Martin. Martin won by 3 seconds £2.50
Cummings v Barta. Cummings wony by 63 seconds 8.15
Dowsett v Brandle. Dowsett lost by 13 seconds -£6.00
Quintana v Pinot. Quintana -£2.25
Malori to finish top 3 -£2.22
Brandle to finish outside top 10 -£5.25
All on limited accounts so it matters not a jot but that's an awful performance!! Nearly £20 down with bookies.
marychain1 04 Jul 15 11:04
Think Nibali is a big price to beat Bertie here myself.
Three for me would be Nibali (v Bertie), Froome (v TJVG) & Cancellara (v Malori).
Decent start for me there. Nibali lands at 5/4, Cancellara 4/7. Froome prevents the hat-trick, loses to TJ by 8 seconds
Cracking starts for my two GC guys as well Pinot and Nibali, both look in good form.
My small stage play on Dumoulin 10/3 a loser.
Think Nibali is a big price to beat Bertie here myself.
Three for me would be Nibali (v Bertie), Froome (v TJVG) & Cancellara (v Malori).
Decent start for me there. Nibali lands at 5/4, Cancellara 4/7. Froome prevents the hat-trick, loses to TJ by 8 seconds
Cracking starts for my two GC guys as well Pinot and Nibali, both look in good form.
My small stage play on Dumoulin 10/3 a loser.
Biggest Kerching of the year so far... thank you all and sundry!
Well done wonby, I was happy to see Dennis salute. Brave move to lay T.Martin, you only needed the fastest TT in the history of the TdF to get him beat. Good call none the less.
Jul 4, 2015 -- 7:45AM, nugget wrote:
Lotto Jumbo flying, will interested to see how Kelderman goes in the dutch national jersey.
nugget • July 4, 2015 1:45 PM BST
Lotto Jumbo flying, will interested to see how Kelderman goes in the dutch national jersey. They also might be worth a look in the team classification.
Good ride by Kelderman a very promising prospect. A good chance for him to move into yellow at some stage now. LottoNL-Jumbo 8's into 3's in the team classification!
Lotto Jumbo flying, will interested to see how Kelderman goes in the dutch national jersey. They also might be worth a look in the team classification.
Good ride by Kelderman a very promising prospect. A good chance for him to move into yellow at some stage now. LottoNL-Jumbo 8's into 3's in the team classification!
nugget • July 4, 2015 8:18 AM BST
Probably between Martin and Dumoulin but would probs have Martin on top in a tipping comp and certainly wont be red on him. Riders like Sagan, Kwiatkowski, Cancellara, Boasson Hagen, Kelderman, G and Van Avermaet will all be looking for good rides with a possible eye towards getting the yellow jersey in the coming stages. Malori is a touch of value at 20's. Cancellara is at 10/1 but I think him at 7/1 to wear yellow at anytime is a better bet.
Just sayin
Probably between Martin and Dumoulin but would probs have Martin on top in a tipping comp and certainly wont be red on him. Riders like Sagan, Kwiatkowski, Cancellara, Boasson Hagen, Kelderman, G and Van Avermaet will all be looking for good rides with a possible eye towards getting the yellow jersey in the coming stages. Malori is a touch of value at 20's. Cancellara is at 10/1 but I think him at 7/1 to wear yellow at anytime is a better bet.
Just sayin
...Saying you know your stuff! Well done nugget -- very fine selection.
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