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Stage 1 (ITT) » Utrecht › Utrecht (13.8k)
This is an ITT rather than a prologue, and is the only ITT in the whole race. It's the 6th time that the Tour has started in Holland, and the first time it has been to Utrecht. At 13.8km this is quite long for an opening stage TT, as the organisers have often preferred prologues. This is actually the 4th longest opening stage time trial, but at this length we shouldn't see very big time gaps. It will favour the rouleurs as the route is very flat, and fairly uncomplicated. Tony Martin might prefer something a bit longer than this but will quite rightly go in as favourite. Fabian Cancellara, who won the prologue in the Tour de Suisse, and home favourite Tom Dumoulin will be the biggest threats to Martin's bid to take the first yellow jersey of the 2015 Tour. Chris Froome will look to get his tour of to a good start by putting some time into the other GC contenders, but it is unlikely he will be able to gain more than 20 seconds or so here.
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Utrecht
Utrecht is the fourth biggest town in Holland after Amsterdam, Rotterdam and The Hague. It has a city centre with structures dating back to the middle ages, with several beautiful canals and bridges. With the Dutch fans cheering him on, this might be a good opportunity for Tom Dumoulin to take a seat at the top table of Grand Tour time trialling.
This is an ITT rather than a prologue, and is the only ITT in the whole race. It's the 6th time that the Tour has started in Holland, and the first time it has been to Utrecht. At 13.8km this is quite long for an opening stage TT, as the organisers have often preferred prologues. This is actually the 4th longest opening stage time trial, but at this length we shouldn't see very big time gaps. It will favour the rouleurs as the route is very flat, and fairly uncomplicated. Tony Martin might prefer something a bit longer than this but will quite rightly go in as favourite. Fabian Cancellara, who won the prologue in the Tour de Suisse, and home favourite Tom Dumoulin will be the biggest threats to Martin's bid to take the first yellow jersey of the 2015 Tour. Chris Froome will look to get his tour of to a good start by putting some time into the other GC contenders, but it is unlikely he will be able to gain more than 20 seconds or so here.
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Profile
Utrecht
Utrecht is the fourth biggest town in Holland after Amsterdam, Rotterdam and The Hague. It has a city centre with structures dating back to the middle ages, with several beautiful canals and bridges. With the Dutch fans cheering him on, this might be a good opportunity for Tom Dumoulin to take a seat at the top table of Grand Tour time trialling.
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Replies: 87
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Will suit Luke Durbridge.
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Tending to agree with MC here on The Butterfly being a major threat for the win. Home crowd and home soil are going to be big factors for his motivation, however his impressive Suisse form has evidently come off after his 4th place finish in his National Champs ITT. The Panzerwagon meanwhile, crushed his National Champs ITT race last Friday, and will be advantaged by his ability of getting the power down hard after the turns and finding top speed swiftly. More than happy to take the better than Evens on here on an outright basis, for a solid opportunity at opening this race with a winning account.
dom888 -- raises the idea of Froome being value to win (on the main thread), but with over a dozen tight turns along narrow sections of road there is no way he is going to take chances by riding overly hard, and I cannot seriously entertain any notion of his winning presence over this course. Lovely thread MC, really covers everything the forum needs to know to make an informed decision. Great flavour. Good luck to all, SP |
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Don't think this type of enclosed course can possibly suit Turbo Durbo. If we're talking suitability than I think the Flowerman is better suited over this type of course if he comes out hot, but even if he does than he is a class down in this company, and I really can't look past the Panzerwagon.
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Probably between Martin and Dumoulin but would probs have Martin on top in a tipping comp and certainly wont be red on him. Riders like Sagan, Kwiatkowski, Cancellara, Boasson Hagen, Kelderman, G and Van Avermaet will all be looking for good rides with a possible eye towards getting the yellow jersey in the coming stages. Malori is a touch of value at 20's. Cancellara is at 10/1 but I think him at 7/1 to wear yellow at anytime is a better bet.
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I've done Cancellara to wear yellow at any time as well 7/1
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Out of the earlier starters Dennis and Castrioviejo go off together. Dennis at 22's and Castrioviejo at 1000. I'll have a bit of the latter and hoping he pips Vermote, Durbridge & Dennis for the early lead.
Martin goes off at 16.44 with Malori not long after. Think Malori is overpriced already but should drift further if Tony is setting the timing screens alight. Else I'm going in play. Good luck all. |
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I've been having a play with the pre-off match bets on Betfair SP. I've put my max stakes on each match up for a bit of fun.
A few value bets in there that I expect to lose but lets see how many I get right at the end of the day. http://gyazo.com/61664a0ade4c8d48c83028194b38476e |
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Think Nibali is a big price to beat Bertie here myself.
Three for me would be Nibali (v Bertie), Froome (v TJVG) & Cancellara (v Malori). |
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There is a massive arb in the Stage 1 Nibali v Bertie head to head market
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Skybet have Quintana at 2.38 to beat Pinot as there shouldn't be that price difference between them in a TT. For all his pure climber status Quintana isn't hopeless and Pinot sort of is but getting better.
I expect Bertie to be Armstrong-lite today. |
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Durbridge to beat Boom at 2.5 on Hills also looks great.
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Yeah you're right, it's linking through to the overall head to head, not the stage market
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Winner to come from:
Dumoulin Malori Cancellara Dennis Dowsett Chavenel Tuft Durbridge Brandle Boassen Hagen All others a lay including Martin for me! |
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Wouldn't be surprised to see some of the sprinters go surprisingly well here too
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Yep could see Cavendish being competitive top ten a distinct possibility for him.
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Won't even attempt to spell his name but Tekla's national jersey looks great.
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I try a Hamilton to Win quali, golden Horn, Martin trebble
And small Place froome |
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365 have a finishing position market..
Taken Malori 1-3 at 3.25 and Brandle 10th or worst at 1.95 |
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Lotto Jumbo flying, will interested to see how Kelderman goes in the dutch national jersey. They also might be worth a look in the team classification.
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Good time by Dennis. 365 were offering 2.62 for him to beat Van Emden after the first split.
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Dennis, nice time! now off to do a rain dance
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Easy to forget that Rohan Dennis is a former Hour Record holder in Grenchen -- top ride that -- looks like that'll be a competitive time for the class riders to come!
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Incidentally, this is the least amount of ITT-ing since 1947 for the Tour.
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Judging by MC's last pic of the inner-town scene and new world cobbles I thought this course might be more enclosed than what it is, but if the Panzerwagon has good sensations he'll feel very fast through some of these bends and the way the crowds are stacking up over the riders almost. It actually suits him quite well, I think. Would go in again but at Odds On there is no more value. We'll see how he goes.
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Not a bad time for Quintana considering. Only a minute off the pace.
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Apparently The Butterfly had a sore throat in his National Champs ITT and that's the reason for his poor performance -- no news how he is now, though. He's had ten days to recover, shouldn't be a major problem, but I'm not keen to add him.
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Reports that the wind is dropping -- I guess nugget is no American-Indian!
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Really high average speeds. Suits the big engines. Panzer should smash
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Wind picking up at the finish line
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Great run by Pinot, underestimated how much his TT'ing has improved.
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Kelderman beats Jungels in the head to head
Really good time by Thibaut Pinot |
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Reports that the wind is picking up on the finish line -- confirmation that nugget's rain dance is having some effect!
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Pinot only 41sec down on Dennis. Quintana 1'01" down. Wonder what Froome will do? Sky riders have been a little disappointing so far.
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The Butterfly...
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...Handling his bike well at least.
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...Handling his bike well at least.
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Not too bad at the check, not adding him though.
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