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Sunday 7th June - Stage 1 (medium mountain) - Ugine › Albertville (132k)
Stages 1 and 2 are lumpy, and could have too many climbs for the true sprinters but have flat run-ins and so should see sprints even if from slightly reduced bunches, and shouldn't have any impact at all on the GC or worry any of the contenders for overall glory.
Monday 8th June - Stage 2 (medium mountain) - Le Bourget-du-Lac › Parc des Oiseaux Villars-les-Dombes (173k)
Tuesday 9th June - Stage 3 (TTT) - Roanne › Montagny (24.5k)
The stage 3 team time trial should create some decent time gaps. The first half of the TTT is pretty straightforward, and the teams with the really powerful riders should be able to go well. There are some uphill sections in the second half of this route, and it is more technical.
Wednesday 10th June - Stage 4 (medium mountain) - Anneyron › Sisteron (228k)
Stage 4 is long and lumpy with three categorised climbs and some uncategorised ones too but after the first two stages it is probably the chance of a result for the fast men.
Thursday 11th June - Stage 5 (mountain) - Digne-les-Bains › Pra-Loup (161k)
This is an exact replica of Stage 17 of the Tour, which is the tdf's first venture into the Alps this year. Neither d'Allos or Pra Loup are the hardest climbs in the world by themselves but together and taken at pace at the end of this stage they should show who is in form.
Friday 12th June - Stage 6 (mountain) - Saint-Bonnet-en-Champsaur › Villard-de-Lans - Vercors (183k)
Not the hardest stage on paper, but a tricky one nevertheless, with 6 categorised climbs including the Cat 1 Col du Rousset. Breakaway? There are plenty of sharp little walls in the profile as well and the last 3km average about 5% so it should be won by a decent climber.
Saturday 13th June - Stage 7 (mountain) - Montmélian › Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc (155k)
The hardest stage of the week for sure with 6 categorised climbs in all, including 5 Cat 1s! This should see all hell break loose and quite possibly decide the GC.
Sunday 14th June - Stage 8 (mountain) - Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc › Modane Valfréjus (156.5k)
A few nasty climbs and a summit finish but a lot easier than yesterday.
Stages 1 and 2 are lumpy, and could have too many climbs for the true sprinters but have flat run-ins and so should see sprints even if from slightly reduced bunches, and shouldn't have any impact at all on the GC or worry any of the contenders for overall glory.
Monday 8th June - Stage 2 (medium mountain) - Le Bourget-du-Lac › Parc des Oiseaux Villars-les-Dombes (173k)
Tuesday 9th June - Stage 3 (TTT) - Roanne › Montagny (24.5k)
The stage 3 team time trial should create some decent time gaps. The first half of the TTT is pretty straightforward, and the teams with the really powerful riders should be able to go well. There are some uphill sections in the second half of this route, and it is more technical.
Wednesday 10th June - Stage 4 (medium mountain) - Anneyron › Sisteron (228k)
Stage 4 is long and lumpy with three categorised climbs and some uncategorised ones too but after the first two stages it is probably the chance of a result for the fast men.
Thursday 11th June - Stage 5 (mountain) - Digne-les-Bains › Pra-Loup (161k)
This is an exact replica of Stage 17 of the Tour, which is the tdf's first venture into the Alps this year. Neither d'Allos or Pra Loup are the hardest climbs in the world by themselves but together and taken at pace at the end of this stage they should show who is in form.
Friday 12th June - Stage 6 (mountain) - Saint-Bonnet-en-Champsaur › Villard-de-Lans - Vercors (183k)
Not the hardest stage on paper, but a tricky one nevertheless, with 6 categorised climbs including the Cat 1 Col du Rousset. Breakaway? There are plenty of sharp little walls in the profile as well and the last 3km average about 5% so it should be won by a decent climber.
Saturday 13th June - Stage 7 (mountain) - Montmélian › Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc (155k)
The hardest stage of the week for sure with 6 categorised climbs in all, including 5 Cat 1s! This should see all hell break loose and quite possibly decide the GC.
Sunday 14th June - Stage 8 (mountain) - Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc › Modane Valfréjus (156.5k)
A few nasty climbs and a summit finish but a lot easier than yesterday.
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Can't work out if Costa is riding smart or nearing empty?
Well that answers the question about Bardet for the TdF...
Yes! Nibali remembering the World championship when Rui Costa won!
This is the Tour winner we're seeing here. Huge price to defend his crown.
Vincenzo Nibali 1.01 €2500.00 €25.00
Vincenzo Nibali 1.02 €150.00 €3.00
Vincenzo Nibali 1.03 €100.00 €3.00
OMG!
Vincenzo Nibali 1.02 €150.00 €3.00
Vincenzo Nibali 1.03 €100.00 €3.00
OMG!
Costa was riding smart after all.
Right then, better get a fred up for the Tour de Suisse
Great play, ExpertBoy.
Not sure I'd be keen to back Nibali for le Tour with Contador likely to be as well prepared as he is.
Not sure I'd be keen to back Nibali for le Tour with Contador likely to be as well prepared as he is.
I usually lay this 1.01 when there is a chance (even if small) that a rider could blow up or someone comes stronger from behind and it already payed off a couple of times... Today i was already winning big and decided to put a bit more money and it payed off really good.
Well done mate that's a classy haul. I don't think there's a lot of difference between Bertie and Nibbles on peak form in the mountains but I think Nibali has an edge in terms of cobbles and possibly the TTT. I also think Nibali should have the edge from not having ridden the Giro. I think I'd prefer to back Nibali if they were the same price, but they aren't - Bertie is much shorter.
Froome looked quite shaky there. There were signs of it yesterday when he was struggling to stick with his two teammates on the front, but I was willing to ignore it on account of his strong finish. There might be much more work there for him than expected, after today.
Not really a blow-up from TJVG, but I still think that might happen tomorrow or the final day.
Valverde on Ardennes form would've blitzed them on that finish, but he did struggle yesterday as was evident.
Good test from Nibali -- would've been nice if he had won, but...
Costa came over the top as was feared when this group took shape.
Bardet's crash can only be a result of yesterday's big day out, and that's the thing with him, he just doesn't have that dour hardness to be a genuine GC contender, I believe. Needs more size, perhaps.
I mean, Quintana is not a big rider, but he is hard and from altitude, and Bardet needs to be more like him than Froome in terms of style and thickness.
Not really a blow-up from TJVG, but I still think that might happen tomorrow or the final day.
Valverde on Ardennes form would've blitzed them on that finish, but he did struggle yesterday as was evident.
Good test from Nibali -- would've been nice if he had won, but...
Costa came over the top as was feared when this group took shape.
Bardet's crash can only be a result of yesterday's big day out, and that's the thing with him, he just doesn't have that dour hardness to be a genuine GC contender, I believe. Needs more size, perhaps.
I mean, Quintana is not a big rider, but he is hard and from altitude, and Bardet needs to be more like him than Froome in terms of style and thickness.
Just looking at the tour de france market. Surprised to see Froome shorter than Nibali and Bertie.
Just looked at the profile for today, this stage is massive 
I expect lots of attacks and the big guys fighting for it. Froome very short its surely a lay. Ill try some "medium" shots pre and wait for the live because i really have no ideia of ehat could happen.
I expect lots of attacks and the big guys fighting for it. Froome very short its surely a lay. Ill try some "medium" shots pre and wait for the live because i really have no ideia of ehat could happen.
Nibali @80 certanly whorts a shot. Other than that, ill just take some of Mathias Frank and Peraud (yeah right) and try to lay froome at @3 or @3,10
Contrary to what everyone else seems to have taken out of the last two day, ive been impressed with frooome's form. Of all the riders he is the one who should need this most has he has had few miles in his legs this year.
On thursday when he kicked he left everyone for dead and although TJ came backed to him at the end, it was perfectly normal for him to fade a bit but he would have been happy the sensations were there when he went for it. You saw with nibali yesterday he had the kick but he couldn't maintain it either and was easily passed by costa at the end, you could see how visibly disappointed nibali was.
On yesterdays stage again I didn't see him struggling I took a totally different view, i just think he made a slightly bad calculation that all he had to do was follow the yellow jersey. He seemed content all afternoon just sit to on TJ's wheel, I believe saving himself for today. The final climb yesterday also didn't suit him being so short, it was no surprise seeing TJ kick away from him but Froome soon came back and went past him. I think he will again be pleased with how his legs were, just disappointed they gave Nibali et al so much rope, which like i said i think was just a miscalculation.
This is the stage he has targeted from the start and i will be shocked if Froome doesn't win today, think we will see nibali and valverde suffer after their exertions yesterday.
On thursday when he kicked he left everyone for dead and although TJ came backed to him at the end, it was perfectly normal for him to fade a bit but he would have been happy the sensations were there when he went for it. You saw with nibali yesterday he had the kick but he couldn't maintain it either and was easily passed by costa at the end, you could see how visibly disappointed nibali was.
On yesterdays stage again I didn't see him struggling I took a totally different view, i just think he made a slightly bad calculation that all he had to do was follow the yellow jersey. He seemed content all afternoon just sit to on TJ's wheel, I believe saving himself for today. The final climb yesterday also didn't suit him being so short, it was no surprise seeing TJ kick away from him but Froome soon came back and went past him. I think he will again be pleased with how his legs were, just disappointed they gave Nibali et al so much rope, which like i said i think was just a miscalculation.
This is the stage he has targeted from the start and i will be shocked if Froome doesn't win today, think we will see nibali and valverde suffer after their exertions yesterday.
I do think Froome is the most likely winner today, although it might be a tall order to win the outright now. What will be interesting to see is whether the recent style of racing continues today. Throughout much of the Giro and this race there has been almost constant attacking from the off and people all over the road. If that happens today it will be a very long day for some. I do think today suits Froome, he has probably been waiting for today and we could see yesterday's attackers go out the back door. I'm sitting tight on Froome to start with to see if I can get a bigger price. I've backed Purito 16/1 and the other Yates at 66/1 as a starting position.
Really fine to get your perspective HB, thanks for taking the time to share it.
Agree Froome would have targeted this stage and will be out to impress today, and if what we have seen so far this race is a form of incremental tests than he should have his good moments, but I am just not sure he is there with his shape for a big ride. Having said that, and opposing MC, a big ride can get him into the GC lead. But it would need to be a blistering attack. I think on such an epic stage as today, there are minutes all over the place and the GC is still very wide open. I want to say Froome, but I am as yet to be convinced, and am tending to think he might just fall short. On the other hand it could be he is foxing a little, but if that is the case than that should be quite evident by how he looks and responds during the stage.
My main interest is in the GC market, but this should an entertaining stage in what is a wide open race with riders at various form lines going into the TdF.
Good luck to all,
SP
Agree Froome would have targeted this stage and will be out to impress today, and if what we have seen so far this race is a form of incremental tests than he should have his good moments, but I am just not sure he is there with his shape for a big ride. Having said that, and opposing MC, a big ride can get him into the GC lead. But it would need to be a blistering attack. I think on such an epic stage as today, there are minutes all over the place and the GC is still very wide open. I want to say Froome, but I am as yet to be convinced, and am tending to think he might just fall short. On the other hand it could be he is foxing a little, but if that is the case than that should be quite evident by how he looks and responds during the stage.
My main interest is in the GC market, but this should an entertaining stage in what is a wide open race with riders at various form lines going into the TdF.
Good luck to all,
SP
Another scenario could be a big breakaway opening a big gap in the first 40-50km and the teams sitting on Astana work...
Sky going very hard... only 20 mens in the main group, 5 from Sky.
Rolland needs to do something if he wants to be taken seriously for the TdF...
I find myself in the unenviable position of not having a clue what is going to happen today. Will look to pick something up on the final climb if the fast picture merchants don't snap it all up before me.
i just laying froome at this odds and i backed Nibali and Valverde at incredible odds (80 and 100)
Kirby says he reckons the winner will come from the breakaway (if they reform in to a 7) then five seconds later he says the winner will come from the Froome group 
Pity Kirby doesn't tell us what the best cheese is in this area -- bloody fool! 
Rolland is a mug -- may have good sensations for a stage in the TdF, but did nothing to suggest he is even a TdF pretender today, especially because he had a perfect opportunity for a strong ride.
Well done HB, really good call mate -- straightened the narrative for Froome nicely today.
The final climb is 8.4kms at 5.7%. After about 4kms of switchbacks, the road straightens out and kicks up to 9.6% with just over 2kms to go. TJVG showed how uncomfortable he was on such steep gradients yesterday, whilst conversely Froome looked very comfortable and strong spinning that low gear. For Froome to win this race, and he does indeed look motivated, he needs to attack TJVG on this steep section and bury himself for just over 2kms to open up a gap greater than 18secs. The evidence for incremental improvements for Froome's form is there, and being so close to the win it's a bit daft to think he will not want to win and gain the much-needed confidence he requires as one of the favourites for the TdF. As I've stated earlier, I think TJVG usually blows up on one of these consecutive mountain climbs and I still think that. Sure he is riding well to be in Yellow, but Froome almost had him yesterday, and today he'll will want to absolve himself from not putting TJVG to the sword completely.
In conclusion; Froome is improving and will want the confidence which a win on GC will provide him ahead of the TdF -- that is the primary reason for his start here, after all. He has a perfect staging point on this stage at just an appropriate distance from the finish which will provide a suitable test, and 18 secs is not an insurmountable gap to open and hold for him.
It's not that I am convinced TJVG will be fatigued from yesterday and lose to Froome, it's just that I'm hopeful for it after finding evidence for it in my initial analysis, and it remains unchanged.
So, no bets for me for this stage at ante-post -- I'm still committed to the GC market and want Froome to win by beating TJVG by more than 18secs.
Good luck to all,
SP
In conclusion; Froome is improving and will want the confidence which a win on GC will provide him ahead of the TdF -- that is the primary reason for his start here, after all. He has a perfect staging point on this stage at just an appropriate distance from the finish which will provide a suitable test, and 18 secs is not an insurmountable gap to open and hold for him.
It's not that I am convinced TJVG will be fatigued from yesterday and lose to Froome, it's just that I'm hopeful for it after finding evidence for it in my initial analysis, and it remains unchanged.
So, no bets for me for this stage at ante-post -- I'm still committed to the GC market and want Froome to win by beating TJVG by more than 18secs.
Good luck to all,
SP
I think today will resemble yesterday to some degree, although it may all stay together for longer. Also it is possible that Nibali and Rui Costa recover somewhat. I will again be looking for Froome to win, but looking to pick up a better price in running, but I will also have small each way stakes on Bardet and Nibali. Tremendous day of cycling today but I'm missing it all because I am heading to Snowdon.
I think (hope) it could be more like the day before. Not a difficult stage on paper but the forecast looks pretty wet. Those conditions would help TJ against Froome but maybe give him problems dealing with everyone else
SKY dictating terms on the front with BMC taking the sit in behind -- promising signs for how Froome is feeling today, but it's still going to be tough with a determined TJVG, who nevertheless appears under the pump a little. Couple of interesting types in the break, but they've let it slip and it has moved towards Froome again.
Here come the troops -- this break in its present form is gone.
Valverde having a go -- he doesn't look imposing, though, already looking back.
So that's the peloton compacto -- Cummings out by himself.
TJVG finding himself near or on the front of the peloton with Froome behind...
That's positive riding from TJVG -- best defence is a strong offence, but it's only early days and it could be a nervous sign.
Climb begins... Cummings has a decent lead, Valverde about to be caught...
Pace is on and it's become an honest test -- no place to hide. Valverde caught!
TJVG looks good, but Froome has a couple more gears, peloton exploded...
Not sure if Froome can stretch the elastic enough to break TJVG...
Cummings is not giving up, surely can't keep this up...
Froome not pulling away -- needs to dig down further...
Out of sight -- Froome clears out -- he's going to win this race and stage!
Just watched it, great win for Froome that, and great excitement. Don't think this tells us too much for the Tour itself. Nibali was clearly using this as training and looked good on the whole without emptying himself. He is still my favourite.
On what we have seen recent weeks this years Tour De France should be a classic.
| Rider | GC | Post stage 3 Prediction | Final Result |
| TJVG | Virtual Leader | 3-4 | 2 |
| Nibali | + 0.04 secs | 5-6 | 12 |
| Valverde | + 0.05 | 2-3 | 9 |
| Intxausti | + 0.05 | 5- | 4 |
| Froome | + 0.35 | 1-2 | 1 |
| Talansky | + 0.43 | 8+ | 10 |
| Kelderman | + 0.54 | 6-7 | 22 |
| Mollema | + 1.15 | 4-5 | 60 |
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