Cycling
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Sunday 7th June - Stage 1 (medium mountain) - Ugine › Albertville (132k)
Stages 1 and 2 are lumpy, and could have too many climbs for the true sprinters but have flat run-ins and so should see sprints even if from slightly reduced bunches, and shouldn't have any impact at all on the GC or worry any of the contenders for overall glory.
Monday 8th June - Stage 2 (medium mountain) - Le Bourget-du-Lac › Parc des Oiseaux Villars-les-Dombes (173k)
Tuesday 9th June - Stage 3 (TTT) - Roanne › Montagny (24.5k)
The stage 3 team time trial should create some decent time gaps. The first half of the TTT is pretty straightforward, and the teams with the really powerful riders should be able to go well. There are some uphill sections in the second half of this route, and it is more technical.
Wednesday 10th June - Stage 4 (medium mountain) - Anneyron › Sisteron (228k)
Stage 4 is long and lumpy with three categorised climbs and some uncategorised ones too but after the first two stages it is probably the chance of a result for the fast men.
Thursday 11th June - Stage 5 (mountain) - Digne-les-Bains › Pra-Loup (161k)
This is an exact replica of Stage 17 of the Tour, which is the tdf's first venture into the Alps this year. Neither d'Allos or Pra Loup are the hardest climbs in the world by themselves but together and taken at pace at the end of this stage they should show who is in form.
Friday 12th June - Stage 6 (mountain) - Saint-Bonnet-en-Champsaur › Villard-de-Lans - Vercors (183k)
Not the hardest stage on paper, but a tricky one nevertheless, with 6 categorised climbs including the Cat 1 Col du Rousset. Breakaway? There are plenty of sharp little walls in the profile as well and the last 3km average about 5% so it should be won by a decent climber.
Saturday 13th June - Stage 7 (mountain) - Montmélian › Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc (155k)
The hardest stage of the week for sure with 6 categorised climbs in all, including 5 Cat 1s! This should see all hell break loose and quite possibly decide the GC.
Sunday 14th June - Stage 8 (mountain) - Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc › Modane Valfréjus (156.5k)
A few nasty climbs and a summit finish but a lot easier than yesterday.
Stages 1 and 2 are lumpy, and could have too many climbs for the true sprinters but have flat run-ins and so should see sprints even if from slightly reduced bunches, and shouldn't have any impact at all on the GC or worry any of the contenders for overall glory.
Monday 8th June - Stage 2 (medium mountain) - Le Bourget-du-Lac › Parc des Oiseaux Villars-les-Dombes (173k)
Tuesday 9th June - Stage 3 (TTT) - Roanne › Montagny (24.5k)
The stage 3 team time trial should create some decent time gaps. The first half of the TTT is pretty straightforward, and the teams with the really powerful riders should be able to go well. There are some uphill sections in the second half of this route, and it is more technical.
Wednesday 10th June - Stage 4 (medium mountain) - Anneyron › Sisteron (228k)
Stage 4 is long and lumpy with three categorised climbs and some uncategorised ones too but after the first two stages it is probably the chance of a result for the fast men.
Thursday 11th June - Stage 5 (mountain) - Digne-les-Bains › Pra-Loup (161k)
This is an exact replica of Stage 17 of the Tour, which is the tdf's first venture into the Alps this year. Neither d'Allos or Pra Loup are the hardest climbs in the world by themselves but together and taken at pace at the end of this stage they should show who is in form.
Friday 12th June - Stage 6 (mountain) - Saint-Bonnet-en-Champsaur › Villard-de-Lans - Vercors (183k)
Not the hardest stage on paper, but a tricky one nevertheless, with 6 categorised climbs including the Cat 1 Col du Rousset. Breakaway? There are plenty of sharp little walls in the profile as well and the last 3km average about 5% so it should be won by a decent climber.
Saturday 13th June - Stage 7 (mountain) - Montmélian › Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc (155k)
The hardest stage of the week for sure with 6 categorised climbs in all, including 5 Cat 1s! This should see all hell break loose and quite possibly decide the GC.
Sunday 14th June - Stage 8 (mountain) - Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc › Modane Valfréjus (156.5k)
A few nasty climbs and a summit finish but a lot easier than yesterday.
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Stage 1 prices up on Paddy Power
Bouhanni 5/2 Boeckmans 5/1 Alaphilippe 8/1 Boassen Hagen 18/1 Van Avarmaet 18/1 Impey 22/1 Boom 25/1 Dumoulin 25/1 Van Genechten 33/1 Terpstra 33/1 Gerrans 33/1 Tony Martin 33/1 Bouhanni's the only real sprinter to come to the Alps for this - looking at the parcours you can't really blame the others for looking at Luxembourg and other races instead - and accordingly if he can get over the bumps he should have a great chance of a win. There's 7 catergorised climbs in this first stage though and the profile of the Cote du Villard looks pretty steep and taking it five times at increasing pace should cause some sort of selection. I want to look at riders that are pretty damn sure to be there at the end. The last 12 miles are flat though so it needs to be someone who has the pace to win from a select group. I'll go for Simon Gerrans, he looked like his form was returning in the Giro with an impressive 3rd place in the stage to Fiuggi, before coming out after his crash. The noises from the team are that he is fit and ready and will target stage wins here along with Cort and the Yates brothers. If Magnus Cort hasn't got back on after the climbs as I expect then I think Orica will look to set this up for Gerrans. 33/1 is a decent price so an early play. Julian Alaphilippe looked in amazing form in California, and he will be there at the end. He has a fast finish and is well capable of winning from a reduced bunch. I wonder whether his and Etixx's sights are set a little higher than the odd stage win here, and if so he may want to conserve energy for the big stages, but I've had him as a saver at 8/1. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Valverde at 26/1 seems a bit overs, if stage 1 suits Gerrans and Alaphilippe it should suit Valverde as well.
Lotto Soudal are looking for stage wins and have some attack minded riders who could do something in stage 1. Bouhani and Modolo are the quickest in a bunch sprint but if they are still in the lead group can Cofidis and Lampre control things late to set it up for a sprint? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Attackers win
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Looks like Sky's training camp went well
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Stage 2 will be a bunch sprint.
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Not sure about a bunch sprint nugget -- a likely group of candidates can build a decent time gap on the main cat.1 climb, the descent is long and it's possible to consolidate and even increase a lead, although a majority of it appears to be a power-descent, and then the flat portion is approximately only 45 kms out from the finish, which is a doable distance for a 6+ man group, however what improves their chances to stay clear is that they'll be getting a lovely tailwind to the finish.
I'm just wondering about the cat.1 climb and whether it'll be a staging point for the GC contenders to have a look at themselves, and how that would effect a breakaway? So, no ante-post bet, but will look again IR. Good luck to all, SP | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Not read anything of the pre-pictures race as yet but my thoughts last night were that SKY could let the break go to lose the jersey. If we get a bunch sprint they lose it anyway and have we got enough strength in the 'sprinters' teams to control the race.
Live on ITV4 for UK viewers. A welcome addition to Eurosport player. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Going to be a bunch sprint, so backing Bouhanni at 3's. Would have taken Tosh Van der Sande at 300's but 365 shows my max bet as 0!
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Been at a festival this weekend in that fancy London to see one of my favourite bands - Ride - and just got back. What did I miss? Who's going to win the Stage 3 team time trial? Looking at the teams I fancy the usual suspects Etixx and BMC to be the main contenders and think Movistar could go well.
Interesting that Betfair have put individuals up instead of teams for Stage 3 winner  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I've backed BMC at 4/1 with Betvictor and had a bit of Etixx at 7/2 with Skybet. Can't see the winner coming from beyond those two.
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Had a go at SKY as Etixx have blown and BMC time doesn't look outstanding. Going last should be an advantage here but only throwing pennies at it for fun.
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Good job with Bouhanni CJ, but another top TTT tip MC -- that is becoming a consistent specialty for you!
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Cheers mate. Decent start to the Dauphine. Now might be the time to have a little bit of an investment in Froome after that poorish TTT. Will have a proper look later. Are we thinking breakaway tomorrow?
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More than happy to test my analysis publicly ahead of the fast-approaching TdF, and have begun building positions in that market at small but increasing stakes against future form analysis. Here though, TJVG will be under pressure to spark the promise which saw him finish in 5th place in the TdF last year and 2012. He hasn't shown the depth of condition required to win this in his last stage race start in the Basque Country, although he has a win up to La Molina in Catalunya before that, which was good. Nibali is usually slow to get going in this type of race, and he is more likely to slowly build form even into the first week of the TdF, so even being the closest rider to TJVG of the GC contenders, I don't expect much excitement from him. If Valverde still has the impressive strength he showed in his winning Ardennes campaign, and he should since he has a good spell, he looks to be in a commanding position. Nothing has changed for Froome, he comes in here with a clear objective to ride strongly and test himself under race conditions and building on his lacklustre Romandie ride, last time out. Mollema will get a genuine opportunity to test his optimistic and mature approach to GC attacking riding with TFR, since he now has nothing to lose but to attack. Talansky doesn't look good. Kelderman is difficult to get right, but not doing enough at this point.
There's nearly always a surprise to such outings, so perhaps Intxausti has the dour quality to hold his current high place on GC for a 5th place finish or better. We'll see. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Stage 4
A twisty enough and lumpy enough stage tomorrow. BMC will be looking to keep the jersey and Cofidis and Lampre will be interested in a sprint finish but I have a feeling that if the break is comprised of people who are quite a way down on the GC that it could be allowed enough rope to stay out tomorrow. I'll also be looking at people who didn't use too much up yesterday in the TTT and from teams that have got an eye on a stage wins rather than a serious GC contender. I've got one or two names in mind, so I'll see what prices I can get. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Modolo has abandoned.
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Someones backing it on the exchange.
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With Modolo gone that makes a breakaway succeeding more likely
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I've backed Benoot 66/1, Reza 80/1 and Rowe 200/1 with Betvictor, all just for £2-5ew and they've all been trimmed immediately! I've backed Bauer with PP 200/1 and have two more I want to get on board but I'm waiting for a better price.
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My main bet tomorrow is Albert Timmer 66/1ew. I've also thrown a few quid at smaller steaks at Benoot, Reza, Rowe & Bauer
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I've decided to limit my wagering at ante-post to higher-valued riders in these types of races since recently, so while I like Alaphilipe I can't back him at 16/1 and have instead gone for teammate Panzerwagon at 66/1 E/W, at a fractional stake. He has appeared motivated so far in this race, he is not really required to protect another EQS rider, and this profile suits his characteristics. Strong prospects. May pay to watch closely.
There's a bunch suited here, I've got three more, and MC is on one of those excellent winning streaks I think, but I won't be getting carried away at ante-post with adding more riders until the TdF, where motives and tactics are much clearer for each stage to decipher, and good liquidity makes for profitable trading outcomes. Good luck to all, SP | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Two man break & None of mine in it
Should be easy to control but still not sure it will end in a bunch sprint. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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They're working hard...
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Break have a chance here. Have to fancy vd Sande if it comes down to a sprint from the breakaway.
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That cat.4 is going to be a brick wall for them, the work they're putting in now. I think there might be a counter not involving sprinters -- the speed is very high, now.
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Thunder and lightning -- this should be highly entertaining! They're cooked!
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Yep, game over for the break of two -- TVDS having a brain fade there, pushing the car away! Why? The car is doing no work and keeping ahead of him!
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I note that you fancied TVDS earlier CJ -- haven't seen much of him before.
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Navaurdauskas?
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Wow. That gap exploded quickly.
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Vd Sande is someone who never seems to hit his potential, forever hopeful that one day he will come good. Although the way he blew there it doesn't fill me with confidence.
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Out of this fracturing counter, Gautier is a hardman but has done nothing all season. Wellens is exciting and I like him. More coming across though. Entertaining!
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GC action. Last thing I need as I've layed all the GC boys.
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Only Nibali really and it's back together -- don't think there's much to worry about!
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Let's go Panzerwagon!
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That was fun, but tomorrow the climbing comes and the GC men will definitely be in action.
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If I'd had a faster stream I'd have been laying the sprinters all over the place there. Small mercies for a poor connection and well done to Cofidis and MTN for managing to get that into a bunch sprint.
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No joy for me there, none of my break roulette runners involved. I did have Van Genechten in my original shortlist but didn't back him because his price wasn't as big as I wanted. I just followed it on twitter and will watch the highlights later. Have to give full credit to Cofidis & Bouhanni there. He really is a warrior in those circumstances and although he will face far stiffer competition in the Tour I'm pleased to see him getting some wins. Could have been a lot worse for me that, I was tempted to lay Bouhanni because I couldn't see a sprint there at all.
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