*GIRO D'ITALIA - Stage 6* Thursday 14th May

Viviani

This is the first of two chances for the GC boys to take a break and let the sprinters teams take the strain after some hectic stuff. Both today and tomorrow have got some bumps in the profile but while Friday's stage sees some ramps towards the end, Stage 6 sees all the climbing done and dusted well before the end. I'll be interested to see how many men Sky commit to the chase. Lottos Soudal and Jumbo should definitely fancy it for Greipel and Hofland, as should Trek for Nizzolo.

I would expect Greipel to beat Viviani most of the time, despite the result on Stage 2. None of the books are sticking their necks out yet though.

I think the value is in Viviani @ 4/1 and Matthews @ 22/1 . i wiould be happy to lay Greipel @ 7/4

Bunch sprint even more likely with a head/cross wind a significant factor if gusting as forecast for a breakaway group or rider toward the finish. Moreover, the sprinters' teams are usually committed to their limited opportunities over flat ground finishes in GTs, so expect them to come to the front after the middle stage bumps have been navigated.

The Gorilla is not a prolific winner in bunch sprints which come after hard summit finish stages in GTs, and on that basis I have discounted his chances, but am not so confident to lay him at ante-post.

*Moreno Hofland looked promising on stage 2 when he finished in 2nd place. He is as low as 11/2 with the Books, and 13/1 on here, so have taken some of that discrepancy with a lay bid to pay for it, should TLJ be involved in driving the pace for the likely bunch sprint, and the eventual shortening in his price. Would not go lower than 9/1, though.

Good luck to all,
SP

Great to see the hairdresser from gogglebox doing the rider interviews today, his Italian is surprisingly good. I've plumped for Andre Greipel, I'm convinced he's the best sprinter. He mistimed his sprint on Stage 2, I expect him to win today.

Andre Greipel comes good. Was easy in the end. Superb leadout from Lotto Soudal. I think what actually won the day for them was the bit from about 15km to 3km out when they were tucked in on the right hand side of the road, perfectly positioned out of trouble and out of the crosswinds while Tinkoff and then Sky were gunning it. They preserved their leadout men while everyone else was scrambling to get to the front. With 4 men left at 3km they then took it up. In the end Sky and Lotto Jumbo melted away and Greipel had time to look around as he won by over a bike length.

Horrible crash for Daniele Colli, looks like his shoulder was dislocated as his elbow was appearing to bend the wrong way. Hope he has a speedy recovery.

Good call MC, the Gorilla the class sprinter in this field and just needed a better lead out to win. Just was way too short to stake a position at ante-post for me, but a winning bet is always a good-priced bet.

LTS were announcing their strong intentions and confidence for the Gorilla by being the first sprinter's team to come to the front and make time on the breakaway. It did look very easy in the end, but it was just a perfect train with everything going to plan. Earlier, the wind was certainly a factor although it had turned around from what I was expecting, and the way Boonen came to the front was a little scary, just the ease and speed, and I thought for a second that there might be a separation at the front, but the whole peloton was in fact flying. I certainly agree that once LTS charged the peloton, with other teams now on the front, it was a master stroke to just position themselves out of the wind like that, saving energy.

While Hofland shortened as expected he was never really on the scene, just scrambling for position, not even following wheels, and a bit disappointing for him but that's the way it goes when you've been outplayed. There was a moment a couple of kms out when he had the opportunity to take the Gorilla's wheel as it was clear that was the wheel you wanted to be on, to stand a chance for the line, but he missed it and then even comically missed teammate Rick Flens' guidance, With Flens looking over his shoulder in inviting Hofland to come to him. He didn't. To be fair, when you lose your trusted lead-out man it can be difficult to find confidence and think clearly in a bunch sprint situation such as that, and fury did not replace the loss for Hofland's Robert Wagner in stage 4. I am reminded that such a loss for an outright sprinter has a major impact. Nevertheless, the market offered no resistance and the Books were under-valuing on purpose, it would appear.

Shocking scene with Colli.

Cheers,
SP

Gun leadout from Henderson, delivered Greipel just at the right time.  With the very flat and uncomplicated run-in to the finish Greipel would have been feeling the pressure if he didn't win this sprint but his team got it right a and he did the job, quite easy.  Peluchi in 2nd for a good result.  A rider with a high top end who likes a flat high speed sprint. Could of gone closer or even challenged had he not lost his lead-out man's wheel in the finale, coming from miles back in the final km to lose by half a bike length, just needed to be a bit closer.