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marychain1
24 Apr 15 19:45
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Date Joined: 05 Apr 05
| Topic/replies: 28,704 | Blogger: marychain1's blog
2015  »  69th Tour de Romandie (WT)


This mini-Grand Tour has been a great predictor for the Tour de France itself in recent years. Evans (2011), Wiggins (2012) and Froome (2013) all won the Tour de Romandie on their way to victory on the Champs Elysees. Last year Froome won here and started as favourite for the Tour as well, and although he crashed out, runing that sequence the yellow jersey winner Vincenzo Nibali was here, finishing 5th overall. This year it looks like a whole host of Tour possibles and probables will be in Switzerland testing their legs for this race. The route this year finishes the traditional medium length time trial to decide the race, but interestingly this year we open with a 19.2km team time trial rather than the usual prologue. The race is known for its rugged terrain and sometimes narrow roads has three lumpy stages that could be described as medium mountain stages, with downhill or flattish finishes and one mountain finish, with Saturday's stage 5 looking crucial as it ends on top of the 1500m tall Champex-Lac. So we will be looking for a real all-rounder here that can live with the best climbers and avoid losing time, or even make time on the 40km of individual and team time trial.

Quintana, Froome and Nibali head a stellar lineup, and with Uran, Pinot, Majka, Bardet and Uran also due to line up we should see some fantastic action. It's also worth noting Rui Costa has finished 3rd in the last three editions of this, and along with his 3 GC victories in the Tour de Suisse boasts an stunning track record in Swiss mini stage races.


Schedule
Tuesday 28th April - Stage 1 (TTT) - Vallée de Joux › Juraparc (19.2k)
Wednesday 29th April - Stage 2 - Apples › Saint-Imier (166.1k) (medium mountain)
Thursday 30th April - Stage 3 - Moutier › Porrentruy (173.2k) (medium mountain)
Friday 1st May - Stage 4 - La Neuveville › Fribourg (169.8k) (medium mountain)
Saturday 2nd May - Stage 5 - Fribourg › Champex-Lac (166.1k) (mountain)
Sunday 3rd May - Stage 6 (ITT) - Lausanne › Lausanne (17.3k)

Startlist
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Tour_de_Romandie_2015-startlist

Tour de Romandie Previous Winners
2014 | FROOME Christopher
2013 | FROOME Christopher
2012 | WIGGINS Bradley
2011 | EVANS Cadel
2010 | ŠPILAK Simon
2009 | KREUZIGER Roman
2008 | KLöDEN Andréas
2007 | DEKKER Thomas
2006 | EVANS Cadel
2005 | BOTERO Santiago

Top-10 2014 Tour de Romandie
1.FROOME Christopher 16:18:46
2.ŠPILAK Simon 0:28
3.COSTA Rui 1:32
4.FRANK Mathias 1:44
5.NIBALI Vincenzo 1:48
6.INTXAUSTI Beñat 1:52
7.FUGLSANG Jakob 1:56
8.IZAGIRRE Ion 2:07
9.HERRADA Jesús 2:15
10.PINOT Thibaut 2:31


Route


Stage-by-Stage
Tuesday 28th April - Stage 1 (TTT) - Vallée de Joux › Juraparc (19.2k)


Wednesday 29th April - Stage 2 - Apples › Saint-Imier (166.1k) (medium mountain)


Thursday 30th April - Stage 3 - Moutier › Porrentruy (173.2k) (medium mountain)


Friday 1st May - Stage 4 - La Neuveville › Fribourg (169.8k) (medium mountain)


Saturday 2nd May - Stage 5 - Fribourg › Champex-Lac (166.1k) (mountain)


Sunday 3rd May - Stage 6 (ITT) - Lausanne › Lausanne (17.3k)


Pause Switch to Standard View *Tour de Romandie* 28th April to 3rd May
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Report marychain1 April 25, 2015 1:40 AM BST
Uran is here twice according to me. Uran Uran.
Report cedarmaster April 25, 2015 9:55 AM BST
so good they named him twice?
Report marychain1 April 27, 2015 8:42 PM BST
I've taken the 16/1ew Rui Costa, he's got 6 podiums from his last 6 week long Swiss stage races. Froome's an obvious favourite with the time trialling miles as well as the climbs, but I'll take my chances. Got to respect Spilak given his record. Quintana has had a fair amount of training in the Classics and Pais Vasco and should be fit so comes into the equation, but the other person that interests me here is Uran 9/1. If he's targeting the Giro again he'll be well on in his prep, he won't have an issue with any bad weather and the parcours should suit him well.

Started with Rui Costa and see how I go.
Report marychain1 April 27, 2015 9:44 PM BST
Stage 1


Prices
Etixx 9/4
Orica 3/1
BMC 4/1
Sky 9/2
Astana 8/1
Movistar 18/1
Report marychain1 April 27, 2015 11:36 PM BST
Backed Sky 6s on here
Report SwingingPick April 28, 2015 10:46 AM BST
I'm going to treat this as more of a trading market, there appears to be some liquidity, and more compelling evidence will come out IR.

LAY Chris Froome Has won this 2014 and 2013, and is the short-priced favourite on the start line. In those years he has won this race, he has had some form coming into this mini-tour and used it to lift and build on that form with a hard hit-out. For instance, in 2014 he had won Oman and had a 6th place finish in Catalunya, and yet Spilak was quite close to him. In 2013, won Oman, 2nd Tirreno-Adriatico, won Criterium International. This year, I believe he comes in here with much less form than those previous years, moreover is still nursing bumps and scratches from his fall and abandonment in FW, and he may use this race as a soft training ride under race conditions, since it appears -- at this stage -- that he is not riding any of the following lead-in races for the TdF and is therefore not building form in a similar way to those previous years. I therefore think that he is here more out of respect as the two-time defending champion than anything else, and whilst he is the winner on class, he is very short in a talented field of riders with a much more forward condition than him.

Good luck to all,
SP
Report marychain1 April 28, 2015 3:34 PM BST
I've laid Froome as well, managed to get a handful of cash matched at 2.5 but thinking about it he'll possibly trade shorter than that after the TTT so I maybe should have waited. The same could also be true of my back of Rui Costa, as there's every chance he'll be a bigger price than the 16/1 I took after the 1st stage.
Report SwingingPick April 28, 2015 4:09 PM BST
I thought about that also, however as you would know, these types of races are never going to generate the type of excitement and therefore involvement as the TdF markets, so since it's always essentially going to be for small to modest stakes, it's best to take what's on offer when it's on offer and then just play the averages when possible. I think it's good practice to always think along those lines as you've suggested might occur, but these markets don't always move as expected and if they do the liquidity is not always there. The way I look at it: I'm not going to get rich with respect to these types of markets, but if I can continue building my bank in a humble manner than I feel it's worth getting involved in these small movements.
Report marychain1 April 28, 2015 4:35 PM BST
Sky win the TTT winner for me at 5/1 Cool
Report SwingingPick April 28, 2015 4:37 PM BST
Well done MC -- excellent start mate!
Report marychain1 April 28, 2015 5:05 PM BST
Sky's win

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvzcJOuNRfw&feature=youtu.be&a
Report cedarmaster April 28, 2015 5:18 PM BST
i dont get involved in time trial betting but great shout MC well done
Report marychain1 April 28, 2015 6:20 PM BST
Stage 2


This looks a hilly old affair, with four categorised climbs and a few uncategorised ones thrown in for good measure. Although I don't think this stage will be decisive from a GC point of view, we should see Sky defend Thomas' yellow jersey and it should provide a good early idea of the favourites form, including Froome. The final climb is quite a test, 9.9k at just over 6% average. The summit is 15k from the finish, and there is quite a technical descent especially in the early part of the descent, before it flattens out and the last 2km or so of this stage are flat. Because of this, I don't see an out-and-out climber winning this stage, and we should probably look for someone with a decent quick finish.
Report marychain1 April 28, 2015 6:30 PM BST
Sky have actually done some serious damage in there. Put some serious time in to rivals, with GC contenders at Movistar, Saxo, Ag2r, Europcar, Lampre all shipping chunks of time - already 40 seconds to 1m 22 seconds down. Spilak and Uran (and Nibali?) are about the only serious GC rivals to Froome who didn't lose a chuck of time.
Report marychain1 April 28, 2015 6:32 PM BST
Cracking TT by Katusha there as well, they've obviosuly been working on that
Report cedarmaster April 28, 2015 8:03 PM BST
just looked to see what price Albasini is for tomorrow and he's only
7/2 so i wont be getting involved
Report SwingingPick April 29, 2015 12:26 PM BST
Yes, very strong ride by SKY there, they can thank Stannard as he was very good, and certainly there's pressure on them now to control things, and we know that's no easy thing on these roads with all the climbing on offer, but yes Froome is in a dominant position over his rivals if he decides to give it a proper go, and we'll see how serious he is by how organized his team will be today.
Report cedarmaster April 29, 2015 5:51 PM BST
oh crap
Report SwingingPick April 29, 2015 7:31 PM BST
Even well before Valverde's theatrics in the Ardennes I am convinced that any price is a good price when it's a price which has been landed. Or would've been, in this instance. Laugh Well done Cedarmaster, sort of. Mischief
Report marychain1 April 29, 2015 10:26 PM BST
Great pick that cedar, well done. I was thinking about Ulissi for the stage but I never managed to get on as I was away with work.


A similar looking stage tomorrow at first glance, and we should see a sprint from a reduced bunch again, although we might see a bigger group than on Wednesday. It's difficult to know exactly how big a bunch we'll get but I'll chance a small each way bet on Navardauskas at 14/1
Report SwingingPick April 30, 2015 8:11 AM BST
Navardauskas has a pretty good record in this race over the years, and he was quite prominent in yesterday's stage, however I cannot go past Albasini, he looks race hard and in a bigger bunch than yesterday I think he should go to the line in a powerful and winning fashion. 5/2 is short, but I'll take it on a W/O basis.

Good luck to all,
SP
Report nugget April 30, 2015 4:26 PM BST
Albasini again, would of been a useful rider for Orica and Matthews at amstel gold.
Report marychain1 April 30, 2015 6:20 PM BST
Well done SP, good result.
Report SwingingPick April 30, 2015 7:56 PM BST
Cheers MC -- fair result -- and I believe that's 3-in-a-row by the forum regulars, although your initial 5/1 pop in the opening TTT is still the best price. Maybe nugget can get us the fourth, instead of just announcing the bleedin' obvious? Laugh
Report marychain1 April 30, 2015 11:13 PM BST

So, here we are again. This profile is looking similar. Indeed, this stage into Fribourg is pretty similar to the last two days. I just wonder if we might see a different outcome today. The sprinters look like they have got a better chance of being involved and I wonder whether someone could maybe stay away if they get a few seconds over the top of the final climb the Treyvaux, which comes 12km from the end.
Report nugget May 1, 2015 1:23 AM BST
Nice to see the forum regulars aversion to tipping short price favourites has ended, not soon enough to catch Valverde's two classic's wins Wink but good work anyway, keep it up
Report marychain1 May 1, 2015 9:34 AM BST
Hey! I backed Valverde for Fleche, was willing to take him on for LBL though because I thought he might not be bang on it having got his win. Should have known better.

Had a couple of quid each way on this today Ryder Hesjedal based on nothing more than a hunch.
Report SwingingPick May 1, 2015 10:46 AM BST
The scenario that a breakaway stays away is a valid one, since that happened in stage 4 of last year's race, which was over a 174km circuit stage around the same arrival town of Fribourg, and there was some rain around. On the other hand, Mezgec finished 9th on yesterday's stage and he wasn't expected to be involved in proceedings since it was thought that he wouldn't be capable of going over the climb with the peloton -- so he is obviously feeling strong, but it appears that the climbing stung his legs enough that he wasn't fighting for the podium. I would suggest that it may be the same case again today. Nevertheless, Albasini is going very well indeed -- he was involved in the breakaway last year from which he won (and incidentally claimed his third win) and given his versatility on a stage today which can be won from the breakaway or from a sprint, I have to return to Albasini at 3/1, again on a W/O basis.

Good luck to all,
SP
Report SwingingPick May 1, 2015 11:06 AM BST
MC -- how are you fairing with your Froome lay? Obviously, it'll all be happening over the final two stages, and it does appear like Froome looks to be struggling a bit, and whilst I'm willing to still take him on, a small hedge at this point might be well-advised.
Report marychain1 May 1, 2015 11:16 AM BST
I haven't changed my book on the outright at all after my initial lay of Froome at 2.5. I wishing I'd waited until after stage 1 as if I'd engaged my brain I could have made it a much cheaper lay. I'll take that as a lesson, and swallow the loss if it happens. I don't really want to red out at this stage, so I'll take the win on Sky in the TTT as a hedge of sorts and hope that I get lucky and Froome loses time on Saturday.
Report SwingingPick May 1, 2015 2:15 PM BST
My average lay of Froome is now at 2.49, and I've gone a little deeper than I would've liked, nevertheless it's still manageable, although from the evidence on offer in this race thus far, it is clear Froome's price is unders at the moment, and would have been an ideal time to get into.

Very positive riding from both Nibali and Quintana on yesterday's stage, they had good attempts, the latter rider's performance especially noteworthy for how long he was out there.

Unlike Froome, at this point, both Nibali and Quintana will continue building form prior to their TdF starts, the former in the Crit Dauphine and the latter in Tour de Suisse, and I believe they will want the strongest possible test up to Champex-Lac on Saturday, so I think really any gaps can be opened, especially since there is only one way for them to approach Froome at this point and that's -- attack, attack, attack!

I will attempt to peel back some Costa, Quintana and Spilak by putting up some prices, though.
Report marychain1 May 1, 2015 4:25 PM BST
This guy Kung looks an absolute star. Cant see them bringing him back here.
Report marychain1 May 1, 2015 4:41 PM BST
Little bit annoyed I didn't consider Kung today. He was on my radar after De Panne and Limburg and I didn't consider him despite thinking a strong rider could stay out after the last climb.
Report SwingingPick May 1, 2015 6:18 PM BST
Very good ride that by Kung, just rode off the front and never gave the break riders a second thought. It came at a very good point in the race, so BMC DS was highly engaged there.

First WT race win so was a total surprise for me, didn't think he was good enough and actually thought Bakelants was a good opportunity for the win out of that group, although at that stage it was still marginal if they were going to stay away. Bakelants was in the breakaway last year when Albasini won, so I was actually quite confident in him winning, but fair play to Kung, he did a lot of impressive work and those "sticky bottles and gels" looked like they were very helpful. Seriously though, he's got a good engine and will make a good TT rider, I think.

One for the rising stars folder that's for sure, and a very good IR call there MC. I think whilst we're not exactly on the ball in an entirely precise way as yet on the forum, it's looking promising for the TdF if we can start flagging the critical factors with respect to market moves, value picks, and short-list propositions.
Report nugget May 2, 2015 12:23 AM BST
King Kung
Report SwingingPick May 2, 2015 6:05 AM BST
Laugh
Report marychain1 May 2, 2015 8:17 AM BST
Report Happybacker May 2, 2015 8:31 AM BST
Have been away so not been able to see much of the action this week.
I notice a lot of you seem to be against Froome this week, well i'm the other way i just can't see anyone beating him. He has just come off the back of an intensive 12 day altitude camp, same camp Porte has been on and we know his condition is great and Froome was supposedly going as equally as well there. This is a race Sky always target and Froome in his pre-race interview said he is here to win.

At 8/11 now he makes no appeal for the outright but I think the 5/2 for todays queen stage although short is a fair enough price. With 4 cat 1 climbs it is going to be a very hard day and the strongest climbers will undoubtedly fight out the finish. I know the head the market but I can't see anything other than it coming down to Froome and Quintana on the final climb and I favour the Sky rider here.

At a huge price 66/1 (VC) I have also had a small ew on Simon Yates just seems too big for a rider we know has been in good form and has continued looking that way here finishing in front rank of the peleton every stage so far.
Report marychain1 May 2, 2015 8:57 AM BST
Yeah I'm regretting my lay but let's see, not totally written it off. It's doing my head in that oddschecker isn't working properly. I'm going to contact them and tell them to try and fix it.
Report marychain1 May 2, 2015 9:39 AM BST
Sorted Cool
Report marychain1 May 2, 2015 10:01 AM BST
Uran Uran for me today 25/1. He's looked sharp so far and these climbs should suit him, albeit I imagine we'd have to find Froome and/or Quintana to not be in top shape for him to win.
Report SwingingPick May 2, 2015 11:42 AM BST
The queen stage arrives and hopefully we'll see some cracking play by the principals for the overall. Quintana for mine, but since he is so short the GC market bet is enough for me and I won't be having a separate stage bet, and have cancelled my lay bids for him for obvious reasons. Am also expecting a big ride from Nibali.

I am experienced-enough to be able of separating hope and evidence, and whilst I'm obviously against Froome the evidence I have witnessed in this race is such that I expect Froome to be incapable of responding to the major attacks. It's that simple really, I see him struggling because it fits the pattern thus far for this Tour. He is class so he may surprise, but this type of strategy has worked for me over the years of fine-tuning it, so am going in with those expectations instead of getting into a guessing game.

Quintana 11/4 W/O from Nibali 17/1 E/W -- and a major failure by Froome.

Good luck to all,
SP
Report marychain1 May 2, 2015 4:30 PM BST
Looks like that should seal it for Froome. Great win for Pinot Love
Report marychain1 May 2, 2015 4:47 PM BST
Don't normally do match bets but did a treble today on Uran 1/2 to beat Van Den Broeck, Nibali 5/6 to beat Fuglsang and Yates 5/6 to beat Atapuma. Missed out because Atapuma beat Yates by one place (same time) Cry
Report SwingingPick May 2, 2015 4:55 PM BST
Well, the major failure came, but not from Froome, who was yo-yoing throughout the peloton on both of the last two climbs -- instead the major failure came from Nibali who at one point attacked the select group and was riding in a forward position throughout much of the final two climbs.

Froome actually looked like he was gone when Quintana attacked up the final climb, but he made it back on since the Colombian didn't consolidate the gap he had created, and it appeared that Nibali, who was with him, didn't want to contribute and kill-off Froome for good. Once Froome got back on he came to the front and was doing the lion-share of the work, all of it actually, however he wasn't making any time on Pinot who was riding out of his skin and ultimately for stage glory.

Good ride by Zakarin from KAT, who got 2nd, and was within sight of Pinot for a lot of the way on the final climb which had a variety of sections of steepness.

I thought Quintana might attack Froome at some point in the final few kms, and bring Froome back into the Yellow jersey, but Quintana didn't have at it all, and it will be a big disappointment to MOV as they did most of the work for him, with up to four riders involved in getting him into a such a strong position, and whilst he did have a few digs off the front, they were all, perhaps bar one, in closing down attacks, and he just couldn't motor away the way he has done in the past.

That ride from Froome was against the evidence of his performance in this race, but certainly not the Froome in top form, perhaps more the Froome which HB suggested came down from a good training camp.

Zakarin
Pinot       +6
Froome   +14
Spilak      +19
Quintana + 54
Uran         +61

Cheers,
SP
Report bb66 May 3, 2015 9:38 AM BST
What I saw this year from Froome he only went his own pace uphill avoiding to respond on any attacks immediately. Is it only for long term preparation for the Tour? He will probably have to ride different style for winning in July.

On the other hand we repeatedly see Nibali attacking and failing when he is countered
Report SwingingPick May 3, 2015 2:27 PM BST
Well, Froome might have got away with his yo-yo tactics on yesterday's stage, however there is no place to hide in the TT and he wasn't riding well from the start. Spilak beat him for 2nd place and Zakarin beat both of them by holding on to his Yellow jersey, after incredibly having a bike change mid-race and looking to be out of it! It was a quick change and he made up the approx 20 secs he lost!

I think Zakarin signals himself as a formidable rider and deserves closer study.

Cheers,
SP
Report marychain1 May 3, 2015 6:19 PM BST
Was concentrating on Crewe's survival. Only realised Froome hadn't won when I saw a big boost to my balance. Agree about Zakarin, great result for him that.
Report SwingingPick May 3, 2015 6:24 PM BST
bb -- the additional issue with Froome's style is the fact that he felt he needed to alter the winning style which saw him as such a highly versatile rider. Whether riding off the pace at the head of the peloton and responding to attacks, or waiting in the line to be launched by his team with a whirling cadence, he clearly could ride in any position. Here, when the pace came on he was off the back, and when the pace came off he moved forward. So, it was in fact quite a one-dimensional style and it worked in the peloton but not in the ITT when against the clock. If Quintana and Nibali were to have joined forces up to Champex-Lac they would have left Froome for dead, and so we must expect that in the TdF he won't be provided, what was then, a get-out-of-jail card. I therefore believe, and I agree with you, that Froome will have to resolve the issue which is causing him to ride in this style for the TdF, if he wants to contend with the principals. That he is likely not riding again competitively until the Tour is a worrying sign, since here, even after a good altitude training camp as reported by HB, he could not get his hat-trick. In conclusion; I believe Froome represents a lay proposition at this point of the TdF ante-post market, but at about 3/1 or thereabouts, certainly not 4/1.
Report marychain1 May 3, 2015 6:40 PM BST
Glad I never redded out of the Froome lay now anyway...anyhow next up its the Giro d'Italia, unless anyone wants to do a fred for the 4 days of Dunkirk? I'm just doing the Giro thread now, so should have it up shortly. Just trying to work out whether its too much to have all the stage profiles, maps and climb profiles for every stage on the preview thread. Might do a preview thread then a different one for profiles and routes. OR, we could have a different thread for each stage? Anyone got any preference?
Report SwingingPick May 3, 2015 6:51 PM BST
I'd suggest separation since it can take some time to load the page when it's really lengthy with all data. Plus it's a Grand Tour so it deserves some elbow room. Whatever is most convenient for you though, MC.
Report SwingingPick May 3, 2015 6:59 PM BST
Dunkirk looks pretty ordinary doesn't it? Still go to catch up with Yorkshire, in any case.
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