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Tour de Romandie 28th April to 3rd May

marychain1

24 Apr 15 19:45

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Date Joined: 05 Apr 05

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2015 » 69th Tour de Romandie (WT)

This mini-Grand Tour has been a great predictor for the Tour de France itself in recent years. Evans (2011), Wiggins (2012) and Froome (2013) all won the Tour de Romandie on their way to victory on the Champs Elysees. Last year Froome won here and started as favourite for the Tour as well, and although he crashed out, runing that sequence the yellow jersey winner Vincenzo Nibali was here, finishing 5th overall. This year it looks like a whole host of Tour possibles and probables will be in Switzerland testing their legs for this race. The route this year finishes the traditional medium length time trial to decide the race, but interestingly this year we open with a 19.2km team time trial rather than the usual prologue. The race is known for its rugged terrain and sometimes narrow roads has three lumpy stages that could be described as medium mountain stages, with downhill or flattish finishes and one mountain finish, with Saturday's stage 5 looking crucial as it ends on top of the 1500m tall Champex-Lac. So we will be looking for a real all-rounder here that can live with the best climbers and avoid losing time, or even make time on the 40km of individual and team time trial.

Quintana, Froome and Nibali head a stellar lineup, and with Uran, Pinot, Majka, Bardet and Uran also due to line up we should see some fantastic action. It's also worth noting Rui Costa has finished 3rd in the last three editions of this, and along with his 3 GC victories in the Tour de Suisse boasts an stunning track record in Swiss mini stage races.

Schedule
Tuesday 28th April - Stage 1 (TTT) - Vallée de Joux › Juraparc (19.2k)
Wednesday 29th April - Stage 2 - Apples › Saint-Imier (166.1k) (medium mountain)
Thursday 30th April - Stage 3 - Moutier › Porrentruy (173.2k) (medium mountain)
Friday 1st May - Stage 4 - La Neuveville › Fribourg (169.8k) (medium mountain)
Saturday 2nd May - Stage 5 - Fribourg › Champex-Lac (166.1k) (mountain)
Sunday 3rd May - Stage 6 (ITT) - Lausanne › Lausanne (17.3k)

Startlist
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Tour_de_Romandie_2015-startlist

Top-10 2014 Tour de Romandie
1.FROOME Christopher 16:18:46
2.ŠPILAK Simon 0:28
3.COSTA Rui 1:32
4.FRANK Mathias 1:44
5.NIBALI Vincenzo 1:48
6.INTXAUSTI Beñat 1:52
7.FUGLSANG Jakob 1:56
8.IZAGIRRE Ion 2:07
9.HERRADA Jesús 2:15
10.PINOT Thibaut 2:31

Route

Stage-by-Stage
Tuesday 28th April - Stage 1 (TTT) - Vallée de Joux › Juraparc (19.2k)

Wednesday 29th April - Stage 2 - Apples › Saint-Imier (166.1k) (medium mountain)

Thursday 30th April - Stage 3 - Moutier › Porrentruy (173.2k) (medium mountain)

Friday 1st May - Stage 4 - La Neuveville › Fribourg (169.8k) (medium mountain)

Saturday 2nd May - Stage 5 - Fribourg › Champex-Lac (166.1k) (mountain)

Sunday 3rd May - Stage 6 (ITT) - Lausanne › Lausanne (17.3k)

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Replies: 52

By:

marychain1 When: 25 Apr 15 01:40

Uran is here twice according to me. Uran Uran.

By:

cedarmaster When: 25 Apr 15 09:55

so good they named him twice?

By:

marychain1 When: 27 Apr 15 20:42

I've taken the 16/1ew Rui Costa, he's got 6 podiums from his last 6 week long Swiss stage races. Froome's an obvious favourite with the time trialling miles as well as the climbs, but I'll take my chances. Got to respect Spilak given his record. Quintana has had a fair amount of training in the Classics and Pais Vasco and should be fit so comes into the equation, but the other person that interests me here is Uran 9/1. If he's targeting the Giro again he'll be well on in his prep, he won't have an issue with any bad weather and the parcours should suit him well.

Started with Rui Costa and see how I go.

By:

marychain1 When: 27 Apr 15 21:44

Stage 1

Prices
Etixx 9/4
Orica 3/1
BMC 4/1
Sky 9/2
Astana 8/1
Movistar 18/1

By:

marychain1 When: 27 Apr 15 23:36

Backed Sky 6s on here

By:

SwingingPick When: 28 Apr 15 10:46

I'm going to treat this as more of a trading market, there appears to be some liquidity, and more compelling evidence will come out IR.

LAY Chris Froome Has won this 2014 and 2013, and is the short-priced favourite on the start line. In those years he has won this race, he has had some form coming into this mini-tour and used it to lift and build on that form with a hard hit-out. For instance, in 2014 he had won Oman and had a 6th place finish in Catalunya, and yet Spilak was quite close to him. In 2013, won Oman, 2nd Tirreno-Adriatico, won Criterium International. This year, I believe he comes in here with much less form than those previous years, moreover is still nursing bumps and scratches from his fall and abandonment in FW, and he may use this race as a soft training ride under race conditions, since it appears -- at this stage -- that he is not riding any of the following lead-in races for the TdF and is therefore not building form in a similar way to those previous years. I therefore think that he is here more out of respect as the two-time defending champion than anything else, and whilst he is the winner on class, he is very short in a talented field of riders with a much more forward condition than him.

Good luck to all,
SP

By:

marychain1 When: 28 Apr 15 15:34

I've laid Froome as well, managed to get a handful of cash matched at 2.5 but thinking about it he'll possibly trade shorter than that after the TTT so I maybe should have waited. The same could also be true of my back of Rui Costa, as there's every chance he'll be a bigger price than the 16/1 I took after the 1st stage.

By:

SwingingPick When: 28 Apr 15 16:09

I thought about that also, however as you would know, these types of races are never going to generate the type of excitement and therefore involvement as the TdF markets, so since it's always essentially going to be for small to modest stakes, it's best to take what's on offer when it's on offer and then just play the averages when possible. I think it's good practice to always think along those lines as you've suggested might occur, but these markets don't always move as expected and if they do the liquidity is not always there. The way I look at it: I'm not going to get rich with respect to these types of markets, but if I can continue building my bank in a humble manner than I feel it's worth getting involved in these small movements.

By:

marychain1 When: 28 Apr 15 16:35

Sky win the TTT winner for me at 5/1

By:

SwingingPick When: 28 Apr 15 16:37

Well done MC -- excellent start mate!

By:

marychain1 When: 28 Apr 15 17:05

Sky's win

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvzcJOuNRfw&feature=youtu.be&a

By:

cedarmaster When: 28 Apr 15 17:18

i dont get involved in time trial betting but great shout MC well done

By:

marychain1 When: 28 Apr 15 18:20

Stage 2

This looks a hilly old affair, with four categorised climbs and a few uncategorised ones thrown in for good measure. Although I don't think this stage will be decisive from a GC point of view, we should see Sky defend Thomas' yellow jersey and it should provide a good early idea of the favourites form, including Froome. The final climb is quite a test, 9.9k at just over 6% average. The summit is 15k from the finish, and there is quite a technical descent especially in the early part of the descent, before it flattens out and the last 2km or so of this stage are flat. Because of this, I don't see an out-and-out climber winning this stage, and we should probably look for someone with a decent quick finish.

By:

marychain1 When: 28 Apr 15 18:30

Sky have actually done some serious damage in there. Put some serious time in to rivals, with GC contenders at Movistar, Saxo, Ag2r, Europcar, Lampre all shipping chunks of time - already 40 seconds to 1m 22 seconds down. Spilak and Uran (and Nibali?) are about the only serious GC rivals to Froome who didn't lose a chuck of time.

By:

marychain1 When: 28 Apr 15 18:32

Cracking TT by Katusha there as well, they've obviosuly been working on that

By:

cedarmaster When: 28 Apr 15 20:03

just looked to see what price Albasini is for tomorrow and he's only
7/2 so i wont be getting involved

By:

SwingingPick When: 29 Apr 15 12:26

Yes, very strong ride by SKY there, they can thank Stannard as he was very good, and certainly there's pressure on them now to control things, and we know that's no easy thing on these roads with all the climbing on offer, but yes Froome is in a dominant position over his rivals if he decides to give it a proper go, and we'll see how serious he is by how organized his team will be today.

By:

cedarmaster When: 29 Apr 15 17:51

oh crap

By:

SwingingPick When: 29 Apr 15 19:31

Even well before Valverde's theatrics in the Ardennes I am convinced that any price is a good price when it's a price which has been landed. Or would've been, in this instance.

Well done Cedarmaster, sort of.

By:

marychain1 When: 29 Apr 15 22:26

Great pick that cedar, well done. I was thinking about Ulissi for the stage but I never managed to get on as I was away with work.

A similar looking stage tomorrow at first glance, and we should see a sprint from a reduced bunch again, although we might see a bigger group than on Wednesday. It's difficult to know exactly how big a bunch we'll get but I'll chance a small each way bet on Navardauskas at 14/1

By:

SwingingPick When: 30 Apr 15 08:11

Navardauskas has a pretty good record in this race over the years, and he was quite prominent in yesterday's stage, however I cannot go past Albasini, he looks race hard and in a bigger bunch than yesterday I think he should go to the line in a powerful and winning fashion. 5/2 is short, but I'll take it on a W/O basis.

Good luck to all,
SP

By:

nugget When: 30 Apr 15 16:26

Albasini again, would of been a useful rider for Orica and Matthews at amstel gold.

By:

marychain1 When: 30 Apr 15 18:20

Well done SP, good result.

By:

SwingingPick When: 30 Apr 15 19:56

Cheers MC -- fair result -- and I believe that's 3-in-a-row by the forum regulars, although your initial 5/1 pop in the opening TTT is still the best price. Maybe nugget can get us the fourth, instead of just announcing the bleedin' obvious?

By:

marychain1 When: 30 Apr 15 23:13

So, here we are again. This profile is looking similar. Indeed, this stage into Fribourg is pretty similar to the last two days. I just wonder if we might see a different outcome today. The sprinters look like they have got a better chance of being involved and I wonder whether someone could maybe stay away if they get a few seconds over the top of the final climb the Treyvaux, which comes 12km from the end.

By:

nugget When: 01 May 15 01:23

Nice to see the forum regulars aversion to tipping short price favourites has ended, not soon enough to catch Valverde's two classic's wins

but good work anyway, keep it up

By:

marychain1 When: 01 May 15 09:34

Hey! I backed Valverde for Fleche, was willing to take him on for LBL though because I thought he might not be bang on it having got his win. Should have known better.

Had a couple of quid each way on this today Ryder Hesjedal based on nothing more than a hunch.

By:

SwingingPick When: 01 May 15 10:46

The scenario that a breakaway stays away is a valid one, since that happened in stage 4 of last year's race, which was over a 174km circuit stage around the same arrival town of Fribourg, and there was some rain around. On the other hand, Mezgec finished 9th on yesterday's stage and he wasn't expected to be involved in proceedings since it was thought that he wouldn't be capable of going over the climb with the peloton -- so he is obviously feeling strong, but it appears that the climbing stung his legs enough that he wasn't fighting for the podium. I would suggest that it may be the same case again today. Nevertheless, Albasini is going very well indeed -- he was involved in the breakaway last year from which he won (and incidentally claimed his third win) and given his versatility on a stage today which can be won from the breakaway or from a sprint, I have to return to Albasini at 3/1, again on a W/O basis.

Good luck to all,
SP

By:

SwingingPick When: 01 May 15 11:06

MC -- how are you fairing with your Froome lay? Obviously, it'll all be happening over the final two stages, and it does appear like Froome looks to be struggling a bit, and whilst I'm willing to still take him on, a small hedge at this point might be well-advised.

By:

marychain1 When: 01 May 15 11:16

I haven't changed my book on the outright at all after my initial lay of Froome at 2.5. I wishing I'd waited until after stage 1 as if I'd engaged my brain I could have made it a much cheaper lay. I'll take that as a lesson, and swallow the loss if it happens. I don't really want to red out at this stage, so I'll take the win on Sky in the TTT as a hedge of sorts and hope that I get lucky and Froome loses time on Saturday.

By:

SwingingPick When: 01 May 15 14:15

My average lay of Froome is now at 2.49, and I've gone a little deeper than I would've liked, nevertheless it's still manageable, although from the evidence on offer in this race thus far, it is clear Froome's price is unders at the moment, and would have been an ideal time to get into.

Very positive riding from both Nibali and Quintana on yesterday's stage, they had good attempts, the latter rider's performance especially noteworthy for how long he was out there.

Unlike Froome, at this point, both Nibali and Quintana will continue building form prior to their TdF starts, the former in the Crit Dauphine and the latter in Tour de Suisse, and I believe they will want the strongest possible test up to Champex-Lac on Saturday, so I think really any gaps can be opened, especially since there is only one way for them to approach Froome at this point and that's -- attack, attack, attack!

I will attempt to peel back some Costa, Quintana and Spilak by putting up some prices, though.

By:

marychain1 When: 01 May 15 16:25

This guy Kung looks an absolute star. Cant see them bringing him back here.

By:

marychain1 When: 01 May 15 16:41

Little bit annoyed I didn't consider Kung today. He was on my radar after De Panne and Limburg and I didn't consider him despite thinking a strong rider could stay out after the last climb.

By:

SwingingPick When: 01 May 15 18:18

Very good ride that by Kung, just rode off the front and never gave the break riders a second thought. It came at a very good point in the race, so BMC DS was highly engaged there.

First WT race win so was a total surprise for me, didn't think he was good enough and actually thought Bakelants was a good opportunity for the win out of that group, although at that stage it was still marginal if they were going to stay away. Bakelants was in the breakaway last year when Albasini won, so I was actually quite confident in him winning, but fair play to Kung, he did a lot of impressive work and those "sticky bottles and gels" looked like they were very helpful. Seriously though, he's got a good engine and will make a good TT rider, I think.

One for the rising stars folder that's for sure, and a very good IR call there MC. I think whilst we're not exactly on the ball in an entirely precise way as yet on the forum, it's looking promising for the TdF if we can start flagging the critical factors with respect to market moves, value picks, and short-list propositions.

By:

nugget When: 02 May 15 00:23

King Kung

By:

SwingingPick When: 02 May 15 06:05

By:

marychain1 When: 02 May 15 08:17

By:

Happybacker When: 02 May 15 08:31

Have been away so not been able to see much of the action this week.
I notice a lot of you seem to be against Froome this week, well i'm the other way i just can't see anyone beating him. He has just come off the back of an intensive 12 day altitude camp, same camp Porte has been on and we know his condition is great and Froome was supposedly going as equally as well there. This is a race Sky always target and Froome in his pre-race interview said he is here to win.

At 8/11 now he makes no appeal for the outright but I think the 5/2 for todays queen stage although short is a fair enough price. With 4 cat 1 climbs it is going to be a very hard day and the strongest climbers will undoubtedly fight out the finish. I know the head the market but I can't see anything other than it coming down to Froome and Quintana on the final climb and I favour the Sky rider here.

At a huge price 66/1 (VC) I have also had a small ew on Simon Yates just seems too big for a rider we know has been in good form and has continued looking that way here finishing in front rank of the peleton every stage so far.

By:

marychain1 When: 02 May 15 08:57

Yeah I'm regretting my lay but let's see, not totally written it off. It's doing my head in that oddschecker isn't working properly. I'm going to contact them and tell them to try and fix it.