*De Brabantse Pijl - La Flèche Brabançonne* Weds 15th April

Been looking at people that have doubled up Brabantse Pijl & Amstel Gold. Has only been done twice in the last 20 years, both times by Gilbert in 2011 and 2014.

*** Tony Gallopin He surprised some in last year's TdF with his combative riding approach and a stage win, however he did win San Sebastian in 2013 as a 24yo. This year, he has been slowly ramping up his condition, most notably winning stage 6 into Nice of Paris-Nice (and claiming the leader's jersey), and then being amongst the chances in MSR when finishing in 9th place. Most recently, and as DS Mario Aerts explained, Gallopin rode the Tour of the Basque Country as preparation for the Ardennes, and that was consistent when he was pulled out of the race prior to the ITT stage on the last day. Of the five stages he rode, and evidently treated as mini classics races, he was highly motivated with two 5th place finishes and he claimed the podium in stage 2 when finishing amongst some of the riders that will be featured here. 3rd here last year, he has a powerhouse team assembled around him with Jurgen Roelandts, Pim Ligthart, Dennis Vanendert, and last year's Eneco Tour winner Tim Wellens, all capable of riding well over this course and assisting him. Has held his condition well. True price 23/1. 18/1 with PP is okay. Coming into this at the right time. Likely to go close. Strong E/W prospects.

* Fabio Felline 25yo Italian in his second year with TFR, is building a solid season after making the podium at the Criterium International by winning the ITT and placing 5th behind some good names in stage 3. Prior to that he finished 26th of the 26 riders involved in the MSR sprint finish, and even earlier in the season he finished 8th in SB, showing his expansive characteristics. More recently, he made strong suggestions he is right up for this type of race when he won stage 2 of the Basque Country, beating riders in this class level in a fast sprint finish. Very short at 9/1 with PP, should be 33/1. Looks a promising type. Consider closely.

* Philippe Gilbert Last year, Gilbert won this (warm-up event for the Ardennes) race for the second time, after winning it for the first time in 2011, the year when he went on to win all three of the Ardennes races - Amstel Gold Race, La Fleche Wallonne, and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. This season, he has not as yet won a race, but was prominent in OHN when he went off the front solo, draining himself for a considerable portion a few kms out from the finish, however ultimately failing and finishing in 7th place. That looked like the Gilbert of old and there was some excitement surrounding his exploit, but could not repeat effort in KBK when finished in 49th place. Launched a move in MSR in similar fashion, but faded to finish in 55th place. When lining up against similar company in stage 2 of the recent Basque Country, could only manage a 5th place. Last year showed that his form can taper out, so this may be his best chance at victory in his Ardennes campaign. 5/1 with PP W/O. 11/1 best as E/W. Commands the utmost respect. Keep safe.

1/4* Maciej Paterski 28yo little-known rider from Poland, proved his talent earlier this season when involved in a long-range breakaway with Pierre Rolland and Bart De Clercq in stage 1 of Catalunya, whom he beat to claim stage honours. Then showed up again to claim the bottom step of the podium in stage 6. Prior to Catalunya he finished in 22nd place when amongst the sprint group in MSR. Last start 2nd +27secs behind, in the Volta Limburg Classic over a hilly parcours, suggests he should handle the test on offer here. E/W at 250/1 with PP. Has claims for a top-10 finish. Consider.

(-) Michael Matthews Only lightly-raced so far this season, he is having a prominent season. Finished 4th when involved in a sprint against outright sprinters in stage 2 of Paris-Nice. In the same tour in the next, 3rd stage, finished 1st.  Then, stage 5 got on the podium. Next, looked like the winner towards the line in MSR when he finished in 3rd place. When racing against similar company to here, he finished 1st and 2nd in stages 1 and 2 of the Basque Country, which was used as training for his Ardennes campaign. Had significantly more kms in his legs last year, prior to his 2nd place finish here, however he proved in MSR that he is one of those young riders that may perform better by racing fresh. Comes into this as the favourite, but also as a rider whom hasn't won an Ardennes classic. One of the main contenders. Should be amongst the race-winning moves. Very short at 2/1 with PP. Would perhaps make better appeal at 7/1 as an E/W proposition. Wait to see.

(-) Gianni Meersman Impressed last year when he came out to win the tough Tour of Wallonia, however it was largely at the expense of Stybar who worked for him impressively. This year he started his season here in Australia by riding the TDU, although it wasn't until the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race one week later, that he confirmed his credentials with a win against riders who were trying to win. Then in March in Le Samyn, having four teammates working for him in the finale, Boeckmans smashed a piece of furniture over his head when in-sight of the finishing line, and he could only manage 2nd place on the podium, and subsequently he lost many points in my index. 18/1 PP. Perhaps a podium place. Take on trust.

(-) Simon Gerrans Due to a broken collarbone he suffered in December, his first race this season was in SB, where he fractured his elbow in a crash on a small climb some 110kms into the race. Came back to racing in the first week of April, with no results to get excited about. Won four times on the WT last year, including the Monument of LBL. Classy rider, but this is likely to be only a test of his shape. 25/1 with PP, should be 75/1. Later.

Good luck to all,
SP

Didn't mean to infer that Matthews is an Ardennes campaigner, he has only been entered in AGR at this stage, and that is most likely the only race he'll ride in these parts. Same with Meersman, Paterski, Felline, and Gerrans looks to be targeting LBL. SP

PP go

2/1 Bling
9/2 Gilbert

I think they should be priced the other way round. Gilbert has specifically targeted the Ardennes Classics and he should be bang on for this. If he is I don't think Bling will be able to match his kick on the Schavei.

I've done a double on Gilbert for this and Amstel Gold. It's clearly a related contingency but it might be small enough stakes for it sneak past the settlers. Works out at about 26/1.

Yep, credit to PP for pricing this up first, hopefully the rest will follow, but whilst I agree with you MC, in having the Boar of the Ardennes above Bling on the betting table, I don't accept there's a 2/1 favourite here. Maybe if Gilbert wins this or gets on the podium I'd take 2/1 in AGR, nevertheless 26/1 is a great price for the double, but there's a lot that has to happen there, however for me he doesn't excite in a confident manner, since much of his claims here are based on his palmares and not present form. No doubt he'll give an honest account of himself though, so I'll keep him safe, but not willing to go beyond that. SP

One thing's clear, this race will be a very good indicator for Amstel Gold for people like Gilbert and Gerrans and if one or both of them perform well we should all be ready to get on quick because the prices will go fast.

Yes, I think you have identified a key strategy, in so far as betting IR during this race is probably best targeted at the AGR market. Hopefully, there'll be some AGR action on here - it helps that there's already a market up - and as a result some liquidity, however if the volume is any indication it's going to be a hopeless case. SP

Liquidity will improve as the forum traffic improves imo, and also as people realise that Betfair have markets up for more races. Betfair do seem to be upping their game at least in terms of getting markets up quicker on the exchange. I noticed they had a market up for Brabantse Pijl up before it had been priced up by any high street books (although still no market up on sportsbook). Maybe if we get our freds up for races nice and early they will get the markets for those races up early, and this should in turn help liquidity.

I will try and get the threads up for Giro del Trentino and La Fleche Wallonne in the next 24 hours.

Bet £3.65 have got Paterski at 150/1

Gerrans isn't riding.  He did a mammoth amount of work for Matthews last year in this race keeping it together late after being in the break.  Orica have brought some big engines here but it will be up to Matthews late on to follow attacks or ride for luck.

Well noticed. I assumed Orica would use thia as a way of getting more miles into Gerrans' legs.

My team for this is:

Gilbert 4.7 (& 9/2 in a double with AGR)
Lithgart 66/1ew
Arashiro 125/1ew

Gilbert my main bet, but Lithgart's been in good form this year, winning a stage in Andalucia with a similar finish. Arashiro is probably second string for Europcar but showed a liking for these sort of races in 2014 with a top 10 in AGR and 12th in this. He probably hasn't shown enough to think he could win this but its a small interest bet at a nice price.

Yep, well noticed nugget, just to echo thoughts surrounding this issue; Gerrans being withdrawn suggests OGE are all-in for Matthews, since Gerrans would've only been in here for a test of his injury-plagued condition ahead of his LBL defence. Tuft in for Gerrans instead, suggests Matthews is going to get 100% support for his attempt to go one better than last year.

Some amazing moves on the betting boards -- Paterski in from 250/1 into 40/1 with PP, 150/1 still best with 365 as MC stated, but down and rock bottom everywhere else. Good go for Gallopin, and Gilbert, and no surprise to witness an improvement in Matthews price, but still no where near where it should be. SP

I often wonder why a WT team would buy an Asian rider when they could buy an Australian one instead?

Agree with SP here in that Gallopin has to be a massive consideration.  No Roelandts or Wellens for Lotto-Soudal though but they've brought a couple of quick finishers in Ligthart and Van Der Sande so I expect Gallopin to be aggressive.  Another rider for Lotto, Vervaeke is promising type also although haven't seen a price for him.

Europcar have Coquard who has shown good form and is overdue for a decent win. The finish should suit him if he's still around.  This should mean Voeckler could be active and with suitable terrain has what it takes to win from a break.

I do think Gilbert should be favourite. After dominating (understatement) the Ardennes in '11 and then becoming world champ in '12 he had an okay if not sub par 2013 only winning one race. Looking like he was on the decline and his winning of classics was behind him in 2014 he showed indifferent form in the lead-up to the Ardennes before holding off Matthews in a sprint at this race and then soloing away on the cauberg at the Amstel Gold race, relegating the impressive trio of Gerrans, Valverde and Kwiatkowski to the minor placings. He then followed that up with top 10's in FW and LBL.  If anything his form looks a touch better this year than last.  The only negative is at this price maybe he has a bit less to prove in this race this year and may choose to keep his powder dry for the big classics in the fortnight to come.

I'm sure this was on Eurosport last year? I've turned up streamless once again.

Hate watching Sporza, so no bets unless I can find the Bein stream.

Backed Colbrelli and Battaglin from Bardiani at a good price, shouldn't be heavily marked, both have a quick finish and have form around Felline at 8.00

Kelderman, Bardet and Teuns if things heat up from a longer way out.

Gerrans is looking to peak later in the year from what I can remember, not saying he wont be competitive at Amstel Gold or Liege but due to injuries he might be a little underdone

Absolutely brilliant.

Wont spoil it in case you are watching it later, but good luck if you got the winner of that one.

There were plenty of people I classed as dangers to the favourites in that but I hadnt even considered Ben Hermans. Quality ride.

It's easy to criticize OGE ineptitude in controlling this race by failing to shut down attacks when they were still on the front in some organization, however this Wallonia-type racing dictates furious activity on the front of the peloton with constant attacks being launched as far out from the finish as 40kms even, and unless you have a team of Gilberts, your team eventually just runs out of men to close down attacks on these smooth made-for-cycling roads.

So while the splintering peloton was expected, I didn't think Gilbert would attack the peloton at the exact same time when Hermans rode away from a badly suffering Tanner. Gilbert couldn't have known, since as a ProContinental race the teams don't have radios, but he surely knew that the gap was solid since they were lined-up in the long straights, and unless he was going to ride away from the peloton he would be dragging the other riders with him, eventually. In any case, that was at 3.5kms to go, and the gap was at about 13secs, so actually Gilbert animated the peloton and made that final selection, which could have really put paid to Hermans' chances of victory, but he rode out of his skin for a massive victory, for him. Interesting that Gilbert, at about 10kms I believe, actually called one of his teammates back from setting the pace, I think it was Dillier -- so he obviously knew how finely balanced this race was -- the Boar of the Ardennes has a nose for these things.

Alaphilippe, hadn't seen him before, but his attack with 1km to go was noteworthy. Gallopin 3 places. So, missed that one, but he was the best value of Gilbert and Matthews -- so you win some you lose some. Felline was up there as was Paterski, however Felline actually went over much earlier to a chase group so he was good to still finish with the principals, same with Devenyns, I believe.

Hermans didn't make my shortlist either, but Haas did, and that was a solid ride since he was the other one who did some bridge work like Felline and Devenyns, I believe.   

Obviously some late scratchings there, which I tend to miss with the long time zone difference, so thanks to nugget for keeping track of that. Incidentally, I think Gallopin was at a disadvantage without those two in the team with him, but it wouldn't have changed my stake.

I think as was expected we're a little closer to solving some of the issues which will come out in AGR on Sunday. Just on that, Matthews led out the sprint into the final turn and held them well -- that's a starting point!

Cheers,
SP

I looked like Gilbert could of won by the length of the finishing straight if it wasn't his teammate leading the race.  Unless of course the peloton which was still numerous late in the race decided to chase down Gilbert, in which case Matthews would of sprinted to victory and won by half the straight.  I think OGE's tactics were to keep the race under control for as long as possible thereby keeping the peleton large which would make it harder for later attacks.  It nearly worked, Hermans and BMC just to good on the day.

Will have another look, but from what I recall Bling did it quite easily in the straight, and if the Boar of the Ardennes could've got around him he would've, but I want to check his starting position, because Bling's was perfect! SP

I'm down in London with the kids at my sisters for a few days and haven't had chance to rewatch the race but I noticed (using my school French) that Gallopin apologised to Gilbert on Twitter for disturbing Gilbert's sprint (he said something along the lines of sorry I didn't stay on my true line). I didn't notice Gilbert really being interfered with but as I say, I've not rewatched it.

Nope, Gilbert suffers no interference. Gallopin does take him across to the barriers and so Gilbert does cover extra ground, however he never stops pedalling, and Bling's kick holds both Gallopin and Gilbert quite well. Now, Gilbert is under lock-and-key to an extent coming into the turn, about 6th-7th, but by the time the sprint group make it out of the turn Bling has shot clear, and I'm willing to think Gilbert doesn't get him on the line even if he was on his wheel. As a young rider you can see that Bling is willing to keep digging that little bit longer, where someone like Gilbert is questioning his suffering and the edge comes off sooner, perhaps. In conclusion; a mighty fine sprint by Bling but he should be equally applauded for his superb positioning, whilst Gallopin and Gilbert were working from the guts of the sprint group so at a disadvantage, but also with an inferior sprint to that of Bling's.

Cheers,
Dan

Gilbert attacked out of the peloton with about 3km to go.  At the same time, Hermans (Gilbert's teammate) dropped the IAM rider in front.  Matthews went to chase down Gilbert, he brought about 5 riders with him including Gallopin.  Gilbert joined the IAM rider and Alaphilippe who attacked out of the peleton before Gilbert.   Gilbert saw his teammate up the road in the lead and sat up.  The Matthews group then caught the Gilbert group and then Gallopin attacked with about 1.8km to go. Gilbert marked Gallopin's move then the chase group lost its impetus as Hermans remained about 8-10secs in front with the final climb about 1.2km to go.  The peloton swallowed up the chase group of big faves just before the final climb (1km to go) Alaphilippe pushed on and Hermans was still in front.  Onto the final climb the BMC led peleton caught Alaphilippe.  After the steep part of the final climb (500m to go) Gilbert was on the front of the group, Matthews then moved easily to second wheel and Hermans remained in front by 4-5 secs.  No one else attacked, Hermans won by 2 secs, Matthews won the sprint for 2nd by a country mile, Gilbert came 3rd and BMC got 1st and 3rd.

Matthews will have a lot more help late in the race on the weekend.  The question is will it matter and can he follow when Gilbert and the others drop the hammer on the cauberg.

Does it matter if he can't follow, though?

I guess not but there is only 1.8km to the line after the Cauberg climb.  Gilbert has won on the course twice by getting a small gap on the Cauberg and soloing to victory.

That's it, you've said it nugget, there's 1.8 km to the line after the top, however I wouldn't identify it as "only 1.8km" since the riders feel every metre after hitting the Cauberg hard, and groups form and reform as we saw last year. SP