*De Brabantse Pijl - La Flèche Brabançonne* Weds 15th April

*** Tony Gallopin He surprised some in last year's TdF with his combative riding approach and a stage win, however he did win San Sebastian in 2013 as a 24yo. This year, he has been slowly ramping up his condition, most notably winning stage 6 into Nice of Paris-Nice (and claiming the leader's jersey), and then being amongst the chances in MSR when finishing in 9th place. Most recently, and as DS Mario Aerts explained, Gallopin rode the Tour of the Basque Country as preparation for the Ardennes, and that was consistent when he was pulled out of the race prior to the ITT stage on the last day. Of the five stages he rode, and evidently treated as mini classics races, he was highly motivated with two 5th place finishes and he claimed the podium in stage 2 when finishing amongst some of the riders that will be featured here. 3rd here last year, he has a powerhouse team assembled around him with Jurgen Roelandts, Pim Ligthart, Dennis Vanendert, and last year's Eneco Tour winner Tim Wellens, all capable of riding well over this course and assisting him. Has held his condition well. True price 23/1. 18/1 with PP is okay. Coming into this at the right time. Likely to go close. Strong E/W prospects.

* Fabio Felline 25yo Italian in his second year with TFR, is building a solid season after making the podium at the Criterium International by winning the ITT and placing 5th behind some good names in stage 3. Prior to that he finished 26th of the 26 riders involved in the MSR sprint finish, and even earlier in the season he finished 8th in SB, showing his expansive characteristics. More recently, he made strong suggestions he is right up for this type of race when he won stage 2 of the Basque Country, beating riders in this class level in a fast sprint finish. Very short at 9/1 with PP, should be 33/1. Looks a promising type. Consider closely.

* Philippe Gilbert Last year, Gilbert won this (warm-up event for the Ardennes) race for the second time, after winning it for the first time in 2011, the year when he went on to win all three of the Ardennes races - Amstel Gold Race, La Fleche Wallonne, and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. This season, he has not as yet won a race, but was prominent in OHN when he went off the front solo, draining himself for a considerable portion a few kms out from the finish, however ultimately failing and finishing in 7th place. That looked like the Gilbert of old and there was some excitement surrounding his exploit, but could not repeat effort in KBK when finished in 49th place. Launched a move in MSR in similar fashion, but faded to finish in 55th place. When lining up against similar company in stage 2 of the recent Basque Country, could only manage a 5th place. Last year showed that his form can taper out, so this may be his best chance at victory in his Ardennes campaign. 5/1 with PP W/O. 11/1 best as E/W. Commands the utmost respect. Keep safe.

1/4* Maciej Paterski 28yo little-known rider from Poland, proved his talent earlier this season when involved in a long-range breakaway with Pierre Rolland and Bart De Clercq in stage 1 of Catalunya, whom he beat to claim stage honours. Then showed up again to claim the bottom step of the podium in stage 6. Prior to Catalunya he finished in 22nd place when amongst the sprint group in MSR. Last start 2nd +27secs behind, in the Volta Limburg Classic over a hilly parcours, suggests he should handle the test on offer here. E/W at 250/1 with PP. Has claims for a top-10 finish. Consider.

(-) Michael Matthews Only lightly-raced so far this season, he is having a prominent season. Finished 4th when involved in a sprint against outright sprinters in stage 2 of Paris-Nice. In the same tour in the next, 3rd stage, finished 1st.  Then, stage 5 got on the podium. Next, looked like the winner towards the line in MSR when he finished in 3rd place. When racing against similar company to here, he finished 1st and 2nd in stages 1 and 2 of the Basque Country, which was used as training for his Ardennes campaign. Had significantly more kms in his legs last year, prior to his 2nd place finish here, however he proved in MSR that he is one of those young riders that may perform better by racing fresh. Comes into this as the favourite, but also as a rider whom hasn't won an Ardennes classic. One of the main contenders. Should be amongst the race-winning moves. Very short at 2/1 with PP. Would perhaps make better appeal at 7/1 as an E/W proposition. Wait to see.

(-) Gianni Meersman Impressed last year when he came out to win the tough Tour of Wallonia, however it was largely at the expense of Stybar who worked for him impressively. This year he started his season here in Australia by riding the TDU, although it wasn't until the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race one week later, that he confirmed his credentials with a win against riders who were trying to win. Then in March in Le Samyn, having four teammates working for him in the finale, Boeckmans smashed a piece of furniture over his head when in-sight of the finishing line, and he could only manage 2nd place on the podium, and subsequently he lost many points in my index. 18/1 PP. Perhaps a podium place. Take on trust.

(-) Simon Gerrans Due to a broken collarbone he suffered in December, his first race this season was in SB, where he fractured his elbow in a crash on a small climb some 110kms into the race. Came back to racing in the first week of April, with no results to get excited about. Won four times on the WT last year, including the Monument of LBL. Classy rider, but this is likely to be only a test of his shape. 25/1 with PP, should be 75/1. Later.

Good luck to all,
SP

PP go

2/1 Bling
9/2 Gilbert

I think they should be priced the other way round. Gilbert has specifically targeted the Ardennes Classics and he should be bang on for this. If he is I don't think Bling will be able to match his kick on the Schavei.

I've done a double on Gilbert for this and Amstel Gold. It's clearly a related contingency but it might be small enough stakes for it sneak past the settlers. Works out at about 26/1.

One thing's clear, this race will be a very good indicator for Amstel Gold for people like Gilbert and Gerrans and if one or both of them perform well we should all be ready to get on quick because the prices will go fast.

Liquidity will improve as the forum traffic improves imo, and also as people realise that Betfair have markets up for more races. Betfair do seem to be upping their game at least in terms of getting markets up quicker on the exchange. I noticed they had a market up for Brabantse Pijl up before it had been priced up by any high street books (although still no market up on sportsbook). Maybe if we get our freds up for races nice and early they will get the markets for those races up early, and this should in turn help liquidity.

I will try and get the threads up for Giro del Trentino and La Fleche Wallonne in the next 24 hours.

Gerrans isn't riding.  He did a mammoth amount of work for Matthews last year in this race keeping it together late after being in the break.  Orica have brought some big engines here but it will be up to Matthews late on to follow attacks or ride for luck.

Yep, well noticed nugget, just to echo thoughts surrounding this issue; Gerrans being withdrawn suggests OGE are all-in for Matthews, since Gerrans would've only been in here for a test of his injury-plagued condition ahead of his LBL defence. Tuft in for Gerrans instead, suggests Matthews is going to get 100% support for his attempt to go one better than last year.

Some amazing moves on the betting boards -- Paterski in from 250/1 into 40/1 with PP, 150/1 still best with 365 as MC stated, but down and rock bottom everywhere else. Good go for Gallopin, and Gilbert, and no surprise to witness an improvement in Matthews price, but still no where near where it should be. SP

Agree with SP here in that Gallopin has to be a massive consideration.  No Roelandts or Wellens for Lotto-Soudal though but they've brought a couple of quick finishers in Ligthart and Van Der Sande so I expect Gallopin to be aggressive.  Another rider for Lotto, Vervaeke is promising type also although haven't seen a price for him.

Europcar have Coquard who has shown good form and is overdue for a decent win. The finish should suit him if he's still around.  This should mean Voeckler could be active and with suitable terrain has what it takes to win from a break.

I do think Gilbert should be favourite. After dominating (understatement) the Ardennes in '11 and then becoming world champ in '12 he had an okay if not sub par 2013 only winning one race. Looking like he was on the decline and his winning of classics was behind him in 2014 he showed indifferent form in the lead-up to the Ardennes before holding off Matthews in a sprint at this race and then soloing away on the cauberg at the Amstel Gold race, relegating the impressive trio of Gerrans, Valverde and Kwiatkowski to the minor placings. He then followed that up with top 10's in FW and LBL.  If anything his form looks a touch better this year than last.  The only negative is at this price maybe he has a bit less to prove in this race this year and may choose to keep his powder dry for the big classics in the fortnight to come.

Backed Colbrelli and Battaglin from Bardiani at a good price, shouldn't be heavily marked, both have a quick finish and have form around Felline at 8.00

Gerrans is looking to peak later in the year from what I can remember, not saying he wont be competitive at Amstel Gold or Liege but due to injuries he might be a little underdone

There were plenty of people I classed as dangers to the favourites in that but I hadnt even considered Ben Hermans. Quality ride.

I looked like Gilbert could of won by the length of the finishing straight if it wasn't his teammate leading the race.  Unless of course the peloton which was still numerous late in the race decided to chase down Gilbert, in which case Matthews would of sprinted to victory and won by half the straight.  I think OGE's tactics were to keep the race under control for as long as possible thereby keeping the peleton large which would make it harder for later attacks.  It nearly worked, Hermans and BMC just to good on the day.

I'm down in London with the kids at my sisters for a few days and haven't had chance to rewatch the race but I noticed (using my school French) that Gallopin apologised to Gilbert on Twitter for disturbing Gilbert's sprint (he said something along the lines of sorry I didn't stay on my true line). I didn't notice Gilbert really being interfered with but as I say, I've not rewatched it.

Gilbert attacked out of the peloton with about 3km to go.  At the same time, Hermans (Gilbert's teammate) dropped the IAM rider in front.  Matthews went to chase down Gilbert, he brought about 5 riders with him including Gallopin.  Gilbert joined the IAM rider and Alaphilippe who attacked out of the peleton before Gilbert.   Gilbert saw his teammate up the road in the lead and sat up.  The Matthews group then caught the Gilbert group and then Gallopin attacked with about 1.8km to go. Gilbert marked Gallopin's move then the chase group lost its impetus as Hermans remained about 8-10secs in front with the final climb about 1.2km to go.  The peloton swallowed up the chase group of big faves just before the final climb (1km to go) Alaphilippe pushed on and Hermans was still in front.  Onto the final climb the BMC led peleton caught Alaphilippe.  After the steep part of the final climb (500m to go) Gilbert was on the front of the group, Matthews then moved easily to second wheel and Hermans remained in front by 4-5 secs.  No one else attacked, Hermans won by 2 secs, Matthews won the sprint for 2nd by a country mile, Gilbert came 3rd and BMC got 1st and 3rd.

Does it matter if he can't follow, though?

That's it, you've said it nugget, there's 1.8 km to the line after the top, however I wouldn't identify it as "only 1.8km" since the riders feel every metre after hitting the Cauberg hard, and groups form and reform as we saw last year. SP