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Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco (2.UWT)
What a cracking race this looks. No Contador or Valverde but Quintana and Purito are here to contend, with Pinot, Peraud, Kwiatowksi, Spilak, Van Garderen, Rui Costa, Mollema, Talansky, Yates, Majka, Moreno, Sanchez and Dennis amongst the names in a strong supporting cast. The parcours looks amazing as always, with no large shallow climbs and plenty of short sharp ones. You can see why contenders see this race as perfect prep for the Ardennes Classics! There is nothing or next to nothing for the sprinters, so this is a feast for those who like to see attacking and climbing. There is a time trial to decide the GC, but the pure climbers shouldn't despair as its fairly short and contains some climbs. This is a perfect test for a pure stage racer, as the winner will have to be an excellent climber, a very adept descender, and decent against the clock.
6th April Stage 1 - Bilbao › Bilbao (162.7k)
7th April Stage 2 - Bilbao › Vitoria-Gasteiz (175.4k)
8th April Stage 3 - Vitoria-Gasteiz › Zumarraga (170.7k)
9th April Stage 4 - Zumarraga › Arrate (Eibar) (162.2k)
10th April Stage 5 - Eibar › Aia (155.5k)
11th April Stage 6 (ITT) - Aia › Aia (18.3k)
Vuelta Ciclist al Pais Vasco Previous Winners
2014 | CONTADOR Alberto
2013 | QUINTANA Nairo
2012 | SáNCHEZ Samuel
2011 | KLöDEN Andréas
2010 | HORNER Chris
2009 | CONTADOR Alberto
2008 | CONTADOR Alberto
2007 | COBO Juan Jose
2006 | GóMEZ MARCHANTE Jose Angel
2005 | DI LUCA Danilo
2014 Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco
1.CONTADOR Alberto 21:09:11
2.KWIATKOWSKI Michal 0:49
3.PERAUD Jean-Christophe 1:04
4.ŠPILAK Simon 1:07
5.VALVERDE Alejandro ,,
6.VAN GARDEREN Tejay 1:56
7.EVANS Cadel ,,
8.TROFIMOV Yuri 2:13
9.PINOT Thibau t2:14
10.POELS Wout “
Startlist http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_Ciclista_al_Pais_Vasco_2015-startlist
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Quintana aiming to defend his title on a friendly parcours
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Pads the first to get their prices up as usual:
Quintana 2/1 Kwiatowski 5/1 TJVG 6/1 Mollema 14/1 Peraud 16/1 Tony Martin 16/1 Talansky 18/1 Rui Costa 25/1 Spilak 25/1 Nieve 33/1 Pinot 33/1 Kirienka 40/1 Formolo 50/1 Inxausti 50/1 Purito 50/1 66/1 bar |
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Looking at my personal TdF INDEX, it clearly shows Quintana ahead on points from the other favourites, namely Bertie and Froome, and seeing as neither are here, except perhaps Mollema and Purito to a much lesser extent -- this should be an uncomplicated win for Quintana. 6/4 is short, though. Having said that, Purito is the obvious danger, and going on the Tirreno-Adriatico form, especially the 5th stage into Terminillo, Mollema comes into calculations for a podium result. Peraud might also back-up with a combative approach after that weird race they call the Criterium International, but Quintana won this in 2013, showing he takes this race seriously, and he has the strongest form.
Maybe the play here is Quintana as a better banker with Mollema, Purito and Peruad? Good luck to all, SP |
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Stage 1 » Bilbao › Bilbao (162.7k)
 Live Coverage 2.30pm Eurosport After the right mess the peloton made of the opening stage in Catalunya, where Rolland, De Clerq and Paterksi stayed away and took a near 3 minute lead in the GC, I think the one thing we can guarantee here is that the break won't stay away today in the Basque Country. It's a very hilly day today and it will be interesting to see whether the sprinters can stay in. If they can then Bling Matthews is the big favourite, and people like Gallopin and Swift could also be contenders. I'm not sure they will be able to stay with the climbers on this hill though, its 430 metres at nearly 9% average (with steeper sections) and with no time bonuses in Vuelta al Pais Vasco GC contenders need to get distance on the line. I can see Quintana going over the top in first followed by a small group that will chase back on the descent. Kwiatowski fits the bill, he's one of the best descenders around. I'm going to take a chance that Katusha will continue their top reent form and chance Dani Moreno as my second bet at 50/1. The climb suits him, and he can win in stages like this from a reduced bunch. Kwiatowski 7/1 win Moreno 50/1 e/w |
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In the outright I agree that Quintana is a massive favourite. Parcours suits him perfectly and I fear I might be looking for podium places only by opposing him, but I'm willing to at the price and have gone for Thibault Pinot 25/1 and Rui Costa 33/1.
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Matthews gets another leaders jersey
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I've seen enough here, MOV asserting themselves on the front, they only do that when they're serious about a race and racing with discipline, so this looks like it's going to be a proper test for Quintana. I mean, a couple of nothing moves on the final climb and everyone looked spent on what was an easy ascent gradient, and they actually had Jon Izagirre closing things down, with one other rider. It looked like play time in the ProContinental sandpit, so expecting them to sharpen things up as the race unfolds, in a competitive training ride before a solid block of Ardennes involvement. SP
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Stage 2 » Bilbao › Vitoria-Gasteiz (175.4k)
 Really difficult to see past Bling again tomorrow. There's a lot of climbing miles but the final climb isn't too severe and anyway, Bling seems to be climbing better than the other fast men. In fact, Bling seems so comfortable on the climbs I'm wondering whether he's a leading contender for Amstel Gold and even maybe Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Anyway, he's surely got the edge over other this field. I'm contemplating taking the 2/1. |
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Orica will have one less troop to marshal things late on with the abandonment of A.Yates (who looked good in Tirreno), their main rider for the gc probably. The Yates brothers and Chavez were Bling's only teammates in the front group and closed down many attacks allowing Bling to sprint for the win.
As for stage 2, I think it comes down to how hard Movistar make it and how much energy Orica spend in chasing down the break. If Swift and Meersman get dropped it could be hard for Orica to control things by themselves late on. Could be a chance for a breakaway or more likely a late attack. Or it could be a bunch sprint between Bling, Swift and Meersman with the latter two (and other sprinters) a little fresher from their easier rides in stage 1. |
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Good call nugget, Orica had to do too much work and although Impey did wonders, the chase after Slagter and then Etixx took too much out of them. Great sprint by Felline.
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Stage 3 » Vitoria-Gasteiz › Zumarraga (170.7k)
 Only Bet £3.65 have got prices up for this so far. I think we will see a different race from the previous two days here, with this profile favouring the climbers. There are two very steep climbs within the final 30km and we should see the GC take some serious shape. I'm looking at Moreno again at 14/1, he's shown he's in great shape so far and these sharp climbs suit him. I'll also chance Van Garderen and Pinot who I think will try and get in front before the final descent. |
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Cracking finish, good to see Henao back after all the troubles last year. Quintana surely cant be stopped for the GC now.
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Stage 4 » Zumarraga › Arrate (Eibar) (162.2k)
 This is a beauty. 2x Cat 3s, 3x Cat 2s & 2x Cat 1s including a summit finish which is 4km at nearly 11%. This is one for the climbers again, posibly even more so than Wednesday's stage, and the climbs are longer too, so will be less suited to the punchier types of riders. Quintana and Purito are again the favourites but I think this climb might well suit Tejay Van Garderen as well. He earmarked this stage before the start. He looks to be in fine form as he showed when winning the Queen stage in Catalunya. I'll take him as my main bet ew at 50/1. |
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Can't have TJVG on yesterday's ride, his teammate Sammy Sanchez was going much better than him over that Antigua climb, and whilst he won La Molina climb in Catalunya, it would appear his form is coming off. I'm still holding my outright Quintana bet, even though Purito is staking his claim. Nevertheless, Quintana was doing it very easily yesterday, and riding within himself, not stretching himself at all. On that basis, now that Purito has had a sniff, I would expect Purito to have another go today with Quintana happily parking himself on his wheel, knowing that a strong ride in the ITT gets him the win.
In conclusion; I think Purito has a good opportunity to still win this tour and he knows he will have to win today's stage to challenge Quintana, and Quintana will allow him the win as he continues to test his condition by riding within himself, and throwing it all down in the ITT, later. Purito 4/1 with BV on a W/O basis, for **. Incidentally, TJVG is now into 66/1 with SB. Good luck to all, SP |
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Cracking stage of climbing into Eibar, which whilst didn't go to expected developments in terms of tactics, the result was as expected with Purito confirming his intentions to win this race.
The main point for me was Quintana's apparent inability to shut down the Henao's impressive attack but ultimately failed expedition. That's what is being said, that Quintana didn't have it, however I think it was just a situation where he refused to panic or was advised by the DS to not get involved at that point, especially since it all came back together by the finale and following would have achieved little. If that is the case than Quintana knows he has this tour in the ITT, or is willing to bury himself to give himself every opportunity to win over a course which suits him. Cheers, SP |
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Good call on Rodriguez, the climb was never going to be long or hard enough for Quintana to do any damage.
Quintana is still odds-on to win with two stages left, the stage 5 to Aia and then the stage 6 TT (18.3km) also to Aia. Quintana is around 6.00 for stage 5 and 1.75 for the overall. Might have something on Quintana at 6.00 for stage 5 and back Rodriguez at 17's and Henao at 10's for the gc. |
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Stage 5
 Just watched yesterday's action. Pretty exciting stuff, what a cracking week long race this is. Final road stage today before tomorrow's TT. Another profile full of climbs and another stage that should suit Purito down to the ground. Both he and Henao will be looking to put as much time as possible into Quintana before the TT. Small bet on Quintana to win the stage, but nothing extravagant. Main focus for me today is trying to get rid of my hangover from Aintree yesterday. |
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I wasn't that sure Quintana really requires to win and make time on his rivals prior to the ITT, since it was my opinion that his ITT results are far superior to any those of his rivals, however on closer scrutiny those past ITT results are not really that compelling that they give me great confidence, and Quintana might actually feel like he might require a handful of seconds prior to the ITT, and by winning this stage he attacks the principals and gains that time required. Quintana at 5/1 with PP on a W/O basis for *.
Good luck to all, SP |
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Saxo Tinkoff rider looked in a terrible state after that crash
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I concede I may have messed this race up, that was not the Quintana who has the explosive power on the climbs to put pay to his rivals with the ease we have become accustomed to witnessing from him. The value was in Henao and Purito as nugget suggested, because I simply can't have Quintana for the GC on that ride. He might be 15-17 secs better than Purito in an ITT like this, and that should be enough given he is only 12 secs behind, but that would be on much better form than what he is showing here, and I am now not convinced he has been foxing on previous stages.
Since the liquidity is not really there to lay off Quintana I have decided to back Purito at 9/1. He should have the measure of Henao on normal ITT form, and he is riding very well here, so I see little resistance in Henao holding Purito off. This is at least consistent with my earlier understanding that Purito signalled his intentions to win this race by winning those two earlier stages, and I therefore believe he has the form to overcome Henao and hold off Quintana. Spilak complicates the matter as he is within striking range in a discipline he has mastered, and Yates rode well in the recent ITT in Paris-Nice. Not confident with this race anymore, it might serve to sharpen me up for coming races, but I'm with Purito at 9/1straight out on here. Good luck to all, SP |
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Stage 6
 No more bets for me in this unless I find something IR, no idea who wins from here in what has been another superb mini-stage race |
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The stage 6 TT is the last 18.3km from stage 5
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Yes, I wish Catalunya was this good of a race, however it rarely moves toward such a thrilling conclusion.
What makes this final stage so interesting is that as nugget points out, the final 18kms or thereabouts is the same climb of yesterday, and as we saw it is quite punishing, with parts toward the top of the final climb angling up to 20%. On the other hand though, the stage begins with a long and technical descent which will bring in a lot of good descenders and time-trialists, who will make up some good time by taking their chances; however I am leaning back to Quinatana since even on mediocre form, which is what we've seen here, he should have a very fast descent and a fair climb. Green Purito and Quintana, and red the field at ante-post, but as MC suggests, IR plays are going to be the best approach for profitable outcomes, here, so strap yourselves in gents, we've got a live one here.    Good luck to all, SP |
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I'd be surprised if Kwiatkowski doesnt beat Martin in this time trial.
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Haven't bet on this all week as in races like this i'm never sure who wants to win and who is in the form to win. Having now watched the first five stages to me the three riders climbing the best and the ones who seem to want the win most are Rodriguez, Henao, and Yates.
After seeing yesterday it is clear to me the winner of todays TT stage will be the rider who flies up the final 8km the quickest. The climb as we saw is punishing in places, and so despite the fact they will lose some time in the first half, i think the big gains will be made by the real climbers in the final 8km. Normally I would quite fancy Quintana for this stage but he just doesn't seem to have the legs this week so i will pass on him, and back the 3 riders mentioned above ew at what I think are huge prices today, RODRIGUEZ 50/1/ HENAO 14/1, and YATES 100/1. None of them are renowned time triallists but they have put in some good tt's particularly when climbs are involved and there are rarely many tt's with a climb as hard as this to finish on. Don't fancy Martin or Kwiatowski to win here despite the fact they will be fastest in the first half. The biggest dangers to my 3 will probably be Spilak and Izaguirre but their prices reflect that. Gl all. |
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Right, I've changed my mind. I can't have Tony Martin as favourite for this, and as he is taking up such a huge percentage of the book I've got to get involved. I Have followed you in here HB, and done Henao 12/1 (can't get anything on with Slybet), Rodriguez 50/1 & Yates 100/1. I'm also going to have a little win only on Purito at 80/1 in the Will Hill shop. Anyone done anything in the National? My team of mugs are Godsmejudge 25/1 , Al Co 33/1 , Royale Knight 33/1 , Portrait King 80/1 & Chance Du Roy 40/1.
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It's true that putting so much great work into initiating these threads you have the luxury to go off-topic MC by talking gallops, but I think HB has lifted the level of the discussion and made some excellent value suggestions. I've stretched myself a little here, but it won't be too difficult to extricate myself IR, so will wait to see how things unfold before further wagers.
Thanks for your thoughts HB, I wish I was just starting out building my positions for this race like you, but there's still plenty of opportunities to take and make. SP |
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Cheers guys should be a really good exciting watch whatever the outcome.
MC have done a couple of yours in the national, Al Co 33/1/, Portrait King 80/1, also done Unioniste 28/1 and Rocky Creek 12/1. |
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Not taking anything for todays stage but have taken Henao for the outright.
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That's the first half of the bargain complete - Martin is beaten
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Spilak
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J-Rod in a TT! Didn't see that happening even though it suited him!
What a ride. |
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I'm not too proud to admit I was well exposed in the GC market on here, but IR plays have proved profitable, even though I greened the field instead of holding out for Quintana and Purito which Started as green. Nevertheless, I had to cover Yates and Henao for safety as I wasn't willing to gamble such large stakes, so took a smaller profit, but very happy with the result -- great ride by the Little Cigar!
 What a great tour so early in the season! Good involvement by the long-term forum members, also. SP |
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Decent return from the each way bet on Rodriguez, good call that Happybacker. So close to a massive return as well, had some 80/1 win only with Hills.
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To be honest I really dislike talking accounts, I find it's usually for those that need to convince the forum they can reach profitable outcomes, over humbly growing their account and informing the forum with good information as they go, but I really just forgot myself after being stretched, and actually needed to write it down to realise how close I got to a bad failure on this race.
My apologies to the forum, won't happen again, I hope. Cheers, SP |
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Yes was a decent ew return MC but like you said so close to more! Didnt see Dumoulin doing that at all, as much as i know he is very good tt rider i didn't think he would fly up that final 3km like he did, an amazing ride!
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Backed Dumoulin in the time trial at 50's didnt get matched on betfair. Not surprising despite being 50's most other places. He is not that far off Martin in pure TT's and doesnt mind a steep climb (21st in Fleche Wallone, and 2nd and 6th in the Canadian classics).
Was happy to see Rodriguez still at 18's on betfair for the gc before the TT. Rodriguez loves a hilly time trial, he came 3rd behind Froome and Contador in the hilly time trial in the 2013 TdF. The only question was his form but with two stage wins in the race already and FW and LBL just around the corner he seems to be rounding into form nicely. |
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Nugget -- lol -- don't you think this information would have been beneficial to the forum prior to the start of the stage? I mean, what are we doing here if not attempting to find consistent profitable outcomes through sharing good information and finding consensus on solid plans of action? Telling it how it is after it was, is not necessarily nonsensical as it is a lesson, but it's not really beneficial to landing good bets, is it!?
Cheers, SP |
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Who did you tip? Quintana at odds-on? How did that go?
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