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marychain1
01 Apr 15 00:36
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Date Joined: 05 Apr 05
| Topic/replies: 28,704 | Blogger: marychain1's blog
Classic  »  Brugge  ›  Oudenaarde   (264.9k)

We're a way through the classics season now. We've seen Degenkolb win Milan-San Remo, and Paolini win Gent-Wevelgem. We've seen Sky's (and Britain's) Stannard and Thomas win Omloop and E3 Harelbeke. We've seen Stybar take down Strade Bianchi. And now we've got Ronde Van Vlaanderen. Tour of Flanders. I love this one. I think this is my favourite race of the year. Cobbles and climbs. What's not to love? 

On the cobbled hills of the Koppeberg and the Oude-Kwaremont you will see riders come to a stop. You will see the riders behind them stop, get off and run up the rest of the hill. Or remount and get a push of a friendly Belgian.

You'll see crashes. And if the wind is anything like it has been, you'll see the peloton smashed into a million pieces. Only the stongest will survive. This is a historic race, and these climbs have been tackled by cycling legends from black and white through colour to HD.
http://images.onesite.com/community.betfair.com/user/marychain1/b29b246e5b12770e25b136cb3ab3ff06.jpg?v=50400[/img]

Whoever wins on Sunday afternoon will write their name into cycling history. Two of the antepost favourites and the winners of the last three editions don't line up as Boonen and Cancellara are both out injured, and in some ways that is a shame. But in another way, it is fantastic. We get to crown a new Classics King. Vanmarcke, Thomas, Stybar and Sagan are all realistic successors. It will be fascinating to see who can wrestle the crown away from the others.


Tour of Flanders Winners
2014 | CANCELLARA Fabian
2013 | CANCELLARA Fabian
2012 | BOONEN Tom
2011 | NUYENS Nick
2010 | CANCELLARA Fabian
2009 | DEVOLDER Stijn
2008 | DEVOLDER Stijn
2007 | BALLAN Alessandro
2006 | BOONEN Tom
2005 | BOONEN Tom

Top-10 2014 Tour of Flanders
1.CANCELLARA Fabian 6:15:18
2.VAN AVERMAET Greg ,,
3.VANMARCKE Sep ,,
4.VANDENBERGH Stijn ,,
5.KRISTOFF Alexander 0:08
6.TERPSTRA Niki 0:18
7.BOONEN Tom 0:35
8.THOMAS Geraint 0:37
9.LEUKEMANS Bjorn 0:41
10.LANGEVELD Sebastian 0:43


Startlist http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Ronde_van_Vlaander




Route


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Pause Switch to Standard View *TOUR OF FLANDERS* Sun 5th April
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Report marychain1 April 2, 2015 11:26 AM BST
Replay of last year's Tour of Flanders is on Eurosport 2 at 4.00pm
Report unbiased April 2, 2015 11:31 AM BST
Thanks
Report marychain1 April 2, 2015 11:44 AM BST
Actually, Eurosport 1 Blush
Report SwingingPick April 2, 2015 12:12 PM BST
*****    Niki Terpstra. 2nd OHN. 13th Le Samyn. 55th SB. 2nd Seaports. 18th DDV. 14th E3. 2nd GW, last start, showed signs of good improvement when he bridged across solo to the race-winning chase group, then made the pace near the crest of the Kemmelberg when opening a nice gap quite easily, with only G going with him. Punctured in Cassel much earlier in the race, but was more unlucky to puncture some 18kms out from the finish, before rejoining the main race-winning group and going over the top of them with good speed, and with only Paolini responding. Did nearly all the work then, and was then the only one to make work late in the finale when Paolini had cleared for home. Got out of the saddle for the line, showing his fighting spirit which saw him win Paris-Roubaix last year. Top class performer. Coming into this at the right time. One of the main contenders. Top pick. 10/1 various and drifting. Excellent value already, however slightly better on here and may be prudent to request some bids or wait for the Books for even better value if the trend continues. 14/1 or thereabouts would be the ceiling, and a cracking price. E/W best.

**    Geraint Thomas.    Showed promising form when sticking with teammate Rowe in MSR, at the head of the race, before finishing in 31st place. Attacked on the Kwaremont with Stybar in E3, making the race-winning selection a long way out, before attacking Stybar and Sagan some 4kms out and opening an easy gap before winning the race in very fine fashion. Continued his good form in GW last start, in very tough conditions, and might have won the race if not for crashing into the ditch at the side of road because of the windy conditions, before slogging his way back into contention by coming back into the main selection and finishing on the bottom step of the podium. That was a very strong performance and he looks absolutely race hard for this. Genuine favourite. Rated to 100%. Likely winner. Pay to follow. Good value: 6/1 BV. Approaching excellent E/W value. Request 8/1.


*    Alexander Kristoff. Is having a very strong season. 11th OHN. 2nd KBK. Just failed on the line to defend his MSR title after another strong lead-in by teammate Paolini, to finish in 2nd place. 4th E3. His 9th place finish in GW won him the sprint from the main peloton group. Has been in scintillating form in 3 Days of De Panne. He may require some luck in running given his sprinting characteristics over this circuit, however his 5th place finish here last time out suggests he will right amongst the race-winning moves. Interesting proposition. Should be thereabouts. Watch closely. 9/1 PP is short. Should be 14/1. W/O, since should he be bridge to the race-winning breakaway, he will likely win the sprint on currently highly impressive form.

*    Jurgen Roelandts. 3rd over this trip in 2013. His last three starts read: 11th MSR. 7th E3. Then 7th last start in GW, belies his display of amazing strength to stay out in the lead by himself for a great portion of the race, growing the gap by up to two minutes in places. Would have won if the finish concluded in Ieper, some 20kms less. Giving every indication he is in great form. Sure to make presence felt. Genuine E/W prospects. Worthy of close consideration. Excellent E/W value 33/1 WillHil. Keep safe.

    Sep Vanmarcke. Came out strong at the start of the classics season with a combative 5th place finish in OHN, before a disappointing result in KBK. Next, showed the indefatigable characteristics he is commonly known for in SB, when fighting hard to bridge to the race-winning breakaway, only to fail and finish in 4th place. Attacked the peloton on the Paterberg in E3, however he uncharacteristically slipped on the muddy surface at the edge of the climb which caused him to lose momentum and retard his attack. Contributed to the main chase group early on before tailing out and returning to the team car on multiple occasions, however he could only finish in 5th place, +38secs behind. Showed worrying form in GW, last start, when he couldn't respond to multiple attacks close to the finish, and finished in 6th place. Hard to discount his chances as he is a proven class performer, however his results so far this season show a rider lacking race-winning form. Take on trust.
               
    Zdenek Stybar. 7th OHN. 35th KBK. Then won SB against two more fancied opponents when he attacked them in the punchy finale. Crashed in MSR so was lucky to finish in 56th place. Was in the three-man race-winning selection when 2nd in E3. 38th in GW last start was mediocre, but he has the characteristics to be amongst the moves here, and should not be overlooked. Has good place claims.

    Peter Sagan. Highly versatile rider, ideally suited for this circuit, however his promise is yet to translate into winning performances. Didn't bring his form to SB, finishing in 31st place. Finished in 4th place in MSR, but perhaps needed to commit to an attack when he found himself in the lead after the descent of the Poggio, in order to win. 30th in E3. Last start was probably the most disappointing result this season when involved in the race-winning move, and looking to have the podium all sewn-up, faded badly into 10th place. Had no explanation for this post-race, and has done nothing to stimulate confidence for a top performance here. Take on trust.

    Greg Van Avermaet. Apart from his 2nd place finish in SB, he has not really featured amongst the big moves and therefore has not been amongst the chances. Having said that, he is ideally placed over this terrain as evidenced by his 2nd place finish last time out. Hard to discount, but he may have stronger claims during his Ardennes campaign. Wait to see.

    John Degenkolb. Won MSR with a strong sprinting performance, however his characteristics don't really match up to this race, and he is therefore unlikely to feature amongst the race-winning moves. Discount.
           
    Alejandro Valverde. Failed badly in SB to finish in 3rd place. 20th MSR. Next, came out strong in Catalunya with three wins, including a 2nd place finish on GC. Improving form, but is not a noted cobbled classics performer and therefore is unlikely to make presence felt, here. Overlook.

    Stijn Vandenbergh. Impressively-framed workhorse with a big, low-end engine. 4th here last time out, 4th last start in GW. Could easily be amongst the main contenders, however given his tactical ineptitude and domestique role in the team, he has only place claims. One for the multiples. Not to be discounted lightly. Take on trust.

    Ian Stannard. Won OHN in indefatigable fashion, and signalled his Paris-Roubaix credentials. Will require luck to be among the race-winning moves over this terrain, though. Later.

    Lars Boom. Not going very well, and it would be a surprise to see him feature among the race-winning moves, late here. Discount.   
               
    Stijn Devolder.    Experienced campaigner who has won this race back-to-back in 08, 09. Not doing enough presently though, to suggest he is going to make presence felt, here. Overlook.
   
    Sylvain Chavanel. 29th OHN. 23rd MSR. 20th E3. 20th GW. Is showing himself in places, however he will require luck over foreign terrain. Perhaps a top-10 place. Take on trust.    

    Daniel Oss. 18th SB. 50th MSR. 10th E3. 8th GW. Improving type, however he may require luck in running. Has some claims for a podium result. Do not discount lightly. Take on trust.

    Edward Theuns. 23yo talent from Pro-Continental Team TSV. 14th OHN. 14th KBK. 5th Seaports. 2nd DDV. 11th GW. Making suggestions he is capable of performing at this class level. Would not surprise with a top-10 result. Consider.
   
    Boasson Hagen. 27th OHN. 13th KBK. 10th MSR. 19th E3. Did not finish, last start, GW. Not suited by the circuit and unlikely to make presence felt. Overlook.
           
    Tony Gallopin. Hasn't raced since his 9th place finish in MSR. Not a noted cobbled classics rider, but has lots of ability and is lightly raced. Worthy of some consideration. Take on trust.

May have a Late Mail special later, but wanted to provide a guide with trading potential now as it appears like we might actually get some liquidity on this race.

Good luck to all,
SP
Report nugget April 2, 2015 12:15 PM BST
Thomas
Terpstra
Stybar
GVA

Kristoff and Degenkolb interesting runners
Report nugget April 2, 2015 12:20 PM BST
Is Gallopin riding? wouldnt mind some of the 80-1 available
Report SwingingPick April 2, 2015 12:24 PM BST
Gallopin scratched, wouldn't go there nugget.
Report nugget April 2, 2015 12:25 PM BST
cheers
Report SwingingPick April 2, 2015 12:31 PM BST
LTS have another interesting team list for this, incidentally. I think Roelandts is the obvious man for them after his GW heroics, and he will get good support from Bak and De Bie, on 3 Days of De Panne form, and Debusschere will want to be amongst the last men standing beside Roelandts to respect his Belgium champion jersey, however I would've had Gallopin in for the Gorilla. Very interested to get another look at Benoot, would almost throw a few coins on him at 1000/1 E/W, just to say I was there when he showed himself in this class. SP
Report marychain1 April 2, 2015 2:05 PM BST
Terpstra and Thomas are my two for this as well. We've almost got forum consensus here... Shocked Laugh
Report SwingingPick April 2, 2015 2:36 PM BST
Great work on the thread MC, I like the introduction style and all the information is here for anyone looking for a clear snapshot of what this Monument is all about.

I remember throughout the years in the TdF, whenever there has been a strong forum consensus, especially for stage betting, it has proven quite profitable for most involved, so hopefully this is a sign of good things to come. Plain

Just on Terpstra, I know I tipped him to defend DDV earlier and he didn't show up, but here he is expected to show and the strong evidence is there that he'll ride well, so he comes in as my biggest E/W bet of the season, and I don't always trade but if I get matched upwards, I really think he'll trade much lower quite early on in proceedings. Fingers crossed.

I don't expect the dynamics of the race to change much, if at all, given that Spartacus and Boonen are not in the peloton. The final Kwaremont and the Paterberg are such natural, iconic, and classic staging points for attacks, that it's really about identifying the riders who can smash it up them and make the selection. Then it's just really all about how they combine or how the chase combines to determine who is in the best position to win. In a general and very broad brushstroke, of course. Cool SP
Report marychain1 April 2, 2015 2:46 PM BST
Report Flying_V April 2, 2015 4:42 PM BST
Stybar...at long-ish odds for me.

But can't trust Etixx to organise a night out in a flandrian micro-brewery

Thomas does look in excellent form.
Report marychain1 April 3, 2015 12:12 PM BST
Geraint Thomas is a bit short now, but he is the most likely winner in my eyes. It's time to bet like men.

Go G











Sky Bet have got some G specials
https://www.skybet.com/cycling/tour-of-flanders/event/17717451

G's Finishing Position Tour of Flanders
1st-5th 5/6
6th or worse 5/6

Thomas to win Tour of Flanders and Paris Roubaix 22/1
Thomas podium in ToF and PR 5/1
Thomas to win ToF OR PR 3/1
Thomas & Stannard both podium in ToF 25/1
Thomas & Stannard both top 10 in ToF 15/8
Thomas & Wiggins both podium in ToF 33/1
Thomas & Wiggins both top 10 in ToF 5/2
Thomas to win TofF & Wiggins to win Paris Roubaix 25/1 (shocking, shocking price)
Thomas podium TofF & Wiggins podium PR 9/2

I've taken the 22/1 on Thomas doing the double, he'll be a lot shorter for Paris Roubaix if he wins on Sunday
Report marychain1 April 3, 2015 12:16 PM BST
I think Lotto Soudal have a load of good options, including some good young riders who could go under the radar. Accordingly, I've had a few quid matched on here on Sean de Bie @ 600, Tiesj Benoot @ 500 and Stig Broeckx @ 1000
Report cedarmaster April 3, 2015 12:44 PM BST
not one mention of Dan Martin ?
Report marychain1 April 3, 2015 12:45 PM BST
Right then
Books
Thomas 11/2 win
Terpstra 11/1 ew 4 places
Devolder 40/1 ew 4 places
De Bie 300/1 ew 4 places

on here, for a trade
Thomas 6.8
Terpstra 11.5
Benoot 500
De Bie 600
Broeckx 1000

Happy with my position, the two I'm most scared of are Vanmarcke and Van Avermaet. Hoping Vanmarcke is Van marcked out of it and thinking Van Avermaet might not be 100%. If he is then he is a huge, huge danger. His ride in this in 2014 was absolutely epic. Also think that if Paolini can get Kristoff back to the front group after the Oude Kwaremont and the Pateberg the final time its game over for everyone else.
Report marychain1 April 3, 2015 12:46 PM BST
Dan Martin doesn't ride in this mate, think he will be more focused on Liege-Bastogne-Liege
Report SwingingPick April 3, 2015 4:41 PM BST
Haven't reported on the weather earlier since there was no real weather to discuss, however there have been a couple recent forecasts appearing now which have light rain and moderate wind for Sunday. Not anything to get too excited about just yet, but should the forecasts transpire, then obviously Stybar gains an advantage given his cyclo-cross background and expert bike-handling skills. It might also be the very ingredient required  for Boom or Sagan to resurrect their seasons, although I think they would require more than just that to figure in the finish on current form. SP
Report bb66 April 4, 2015 4:00 PM BST
For me this race has lost heart and face without the Muur of GerardsbergenSad
Report ClayDavis April 4, 2015 4:16 PM BST
If ever Peter SAGAN is going to win a monument it will be the Tour of Flanders IMHO and this year's is wide open. This course suits him particularly well and there is no Spartacus this year to worry about. I have been hughly critical of Sagan's tactics and race winning abilities but he is not fav tomorrow. In fact he is an enormous price.
He was 4th in MSR when he didn't know whether to stick or twist (yet again) and actually looked really strong in E3 before his late implosion. Other than Thomas, SAGAN looked the strongest on the Bergs that day. If SAGAN is cute tomorrow (and that is a big IF) he could almost fly under the radar. They will be watch Vanmarcke and Thomas and Kristoff and GVA and Stybar etc etc......will they be watching Sagan as closely this time? I'm not so sure. He can almost concentrate on sticking with them and force them to shake him. I'm happy to chance Sagan at the prices

The other rider I like is Stybar who I think will be the strongest of the Quickstep riders. Vandenburgh is law onto himself and tactically all over the place. God only knows what he will do. I was disappointed with Vanmarcke and Terpstra in Gent W. Stybar looked very strong in E3 and was caught napping by Thomas. I fancy him to go really well

Sagan and Stybar for me
Report marychain1 April 4, 2015 11:01 PM BST
I think Vandenbergh is superstrong and I don't particularly mind his tactical ineptitude. If you watch last year though when Van Avermaet and Vandenbergh escaped Van Avermaet was on the front the whole time and Vandenbergh still couldn't get past him and Van Avermaet got second behind Cancellara in the sprint. If it wasn't for the crash in E3 GVA would be my no.1 pick for this. I still think he is a massive danger, I may well back him if the morning interviews sound particularly promising or in running if he looks strong.
Report SwingingPick April 5, 2015 4:31 AM BST
Last year, the first selection came on the Koppenberg some 44kms out from the finish. Terpstra rolled over Boonen with ease nearing the top, however if we remember Boonen had two sore thumbs and therefore an excuse, nevertheless Sagan and Spartacus were not on display on the climb, just battling, Having said that, even Vandenbergh, who was quite a way behind on the climb, came back into the principals group on the descent, and was the first to go in pursuit of GVA, who was the first to attack.

We know that anyone of these riders near the top line of betting can win this race, however I would contend that recent form is one of the most accurate guides in determining the likely form in a race. and whilst GVA can just show up all-of-a-sudden in a race, I'm going to resist him for as long as required. It's true that GVA was doing all the work up until and after the Kruisberg, with Vandenbergh just sitting like a lead weight, however GVA was going better in the lead-ins than he is this year.

GVA is a danger, as is Sagan and Vanmarcke, and ignoring them in-running would be foolish, but I'd rather wager to a system which works than include out-of-form riders at ante-post at the expense of riders with value and form. In-running will always present us with evidence we don't have at ante-post.

Cold but dry day of cycling is forecast, with slight wind.

Good luck to all,
SP
Report cedarmaster April 5, 2015 9:09 AM BST
Great racing in prospect today.

All the riders at the head of the market are the in form riders from this season and although they may provide the winner there is no real value in them. The 11/1 price about Peter Sagan in a race without Cancellara and Boonen shows how people are losing faith in his ability to finish off races. The other in form riders Luca Paolini and Daniel Oss look to be riding for their team leaders today.

I am always looking for value in my bets.

1) Stijn Devolder   two-time winner showed some form last week and available @ 40/1
2) Filippo Pozzato  not in great current form but has decent Flanders form 100/1
3) Sebastien Langeveld  as above currently 200/1

having put the kiss of death on Warren Barguil and Gerald Ciolek lately i apologise in advance if any of the above 3 crash

enjoy the race guys , dont forget nice early coverage on Eurosport from 11.30am
Report Happybacker April 5, 2015 9:39 AM BST
Hi all, like most am really looking forward to this today as should be cracker with so many riders believing they have a great chance this  year.

For me like many have already said one rider stands out  to me above all on current form, GERAINT THOMAS he just has to be involved and with all things being equal i think he is by far the most likely winner. The price has gone, and is much less than i would like to get involved at but just cant see him not being there or there abouts, so have had one of my biggest cycling bets ever at 9/2.

For a bit more interest also wanted to have a litte ew on someone at a big price,and have decided to have a small interest on Jens Debuscherre at 80/1, a young rider who is a great prospect and who will undoubtedly be involved in the cobble classics for years to come. He has been in great form the last few weeks, and though there are 2 more favoured riders in the team, as a belgian who knows these roads so well im sure he will want to put in a big performance.

Gl all.
Report marychain1 April 5, 2015 10:20 AM BST
Today is my 10th birthday in Betfair terms apparently, judging by my joined date. Hope that means I'm going to have a lucky day. Thomas or Terpstra would be a good start.
Report CJ70 April 5, 2015 10:32 AM BST
^^ Quite apt..

I've got one pre-off bet on.. *drum roll* Chavanel. Partying like its 2007!
Report marychain1 April 5, 2015 10:51 AM BST
Pretty strong break established:

Matthew Brammeier (MTN – Qhubeka), Jesse Sergent (Trek Factory Racing), Damien Gaudin (AG2R La Mondiale), Ralf Matzka (Bora), Clément Venturini (Cofidis), Dylan Groenewegen (Team Roompot), Lars Ytting Bak (Lotto Soudal), and Marco Frapporti (Androni).
Report federalski81 April 5, 2015 11:42 AM BST
Echo everyone saying how much they are looking forward to todays racing, it should be brilliant.

It is so hard to call among the market leaders, it will be real interesting to see how it unfolds.
Though I have no money on them I will be cheering on G or GVA for the win today.

My hopeful outsiders are:
250/1 ew Bauer
125/1 ew Trentin
300/1 ew Ciolek &
250/1 ew Devenyns

Good luck.
Report GoBallistic April 5, 2015 11:52 AM BST
Bring back Kapelmuur :(

Sky will just be all in for Thomas - nothing very subtle - just try to strangle the race till last Kwaremont.  He's a bit short I think, might be the strongest, but he's a bit crash-prone and probably needs to win alone.  I think Kristoff should be fav. Take Cancellara out and he'd probably have won last year.  My money is on him and Roelandts
Report marychain1 April 5, 2015 1:44 PM BST
Think the other favs will be all out to attack Kristoff (and Degenkolb) on the Kwaremont & Paterberg. Might be reliant on how strong Paolini is to get him back on. Should be interesting to see, think they all know that they lose if either are on the premises.
Report marychain1 April 5, 2015 2:14 PM BST
FDJ just ran their own rider over
Report GoBallistic April 5, 2015 2:14 PM BST
Wacky races
Report marychain1 April 5, 2015 2:15 PM BST
To be fair it was the neutral service car that caused that, rammed the back of the FDJ car as it stopped to help the rider
Report bb66 April 5, 2015 2:19 PM BST
Shimano Service cars should be banned from the race inspecting theit driversCryShocked
Report marychain1 April 5, 2015 2:53 PM BST
Thomas is going to have to be Superman to win this from here. Sky's tactics have been poor, they've just burnt matches while Etixx have so many options left.
Report federalski81 April 5, 2015 3:11 PM BST
Had a go at Oss at 40/1 ew. He looked comfier than most there.
Report marychain1 April 5, 2015 3:14 PM BST
I'd backed Demare at 125/1 literally milliseconds before that mechanical
Report federalski81 April 5, 2015 3:18 PM BST
That is a bit of a sickner, he got back quick enough so must have had some good power.
Report marychain1 April 5, 2015 3:18 PM BST
Thomas has sent Rowe up the road
Report marychain1 April 5, 2015 3:21 PM BST
Griepel's riding brilliantly, done huge amounts of work. Someone from Lotto must feel good. Roelandts?
Report marychain1 April 5, 2015 3:33 PM BST
Terpstra and Kritoff off the front, Vanmarcke chasing back onto the front group
Report federalski81 April 5, 2015 3:35 PM BST
Could be game over here...
Report marychain1 April 5, 2015 3:39 PM BST
If Terpstra can attack on one of the climbs he could leave Kristoff in no man's land here
Report bb66 April 5, 2015 3:55 PM BST
Vanmarcke lacked Spartacus to close the gap this year
Report marychain1 April 5, 2015 3:55 PM BST
Think this is curtains now, Kristoff cannot be stopped.
Report marychain1 April 5, 2015 4:09 PM BST
Led him out for 3 miles and still won the sprint!
Report nugget April 5, 2015 4:11 PM BST
Kristoff way too strong. being the fastest he was always going to be prone to late attacks, so he took that out of the equation. wins his main target for the year
Report marychain1 April 5, 2015 4:15 PM BST
Benoot 5th Shocked never got the chance to trade my 500s
Report marychain1 April 5, 2015 4:17 PM BST
What makes that even more remarkable is that riders who do 3 days of De Panne have a pretty poor record in Flanders. Kristoff won 3 stages and did an incredible time trial and it looks like it didn't affect him at all.
Report federalski81 April 5, 2015 4:21 PM BST
That was quite exciting for a wee while when it looked like Sagan and GVA would close in 8k or so out.

Surprised that G and Styber were not in the equation. Etixx didn't really set the race alight like I thought they would.

Degenkolb surprised me with his climbing, I knew he was good but didn't think he would be up at the sharp end, more hanging on valiantly.

GVA really needs to wait and follow an attack sometime, he burns so many matches so much earlier than everyone else. Though it is to his credit for making it exiting.
Report marychain1 April 5, 2015 4:23 PM BST
I think I need to stop thinking of Kristoff as a sprinter
Report SwingingPick April 5, 2015 4:50 PM BST
The 3 Days of De Panne/Flanders double is tough to do given the perception of how close the two races are together, however it does go off quite regularly in the modern era, with Allesandro Ballan in 2007, and in 1999 the great Belgian Peter Van Petegem performing the double. So, every eight years!

I don't think this (essential parts of the) race was much of a surprise, the two riders of a small handful of riders in good form were the two whom just did enough at the right time to open that race-winning move. Flanders is becoming such a subtle race that seemingly unimpressive moves open strong race-winning scenarios, and even a small group combining effectively can hold a small margin a long way out from the finish.

I think SKY put a lot of pressure on G with their tactics, there was never really anything to control on the front with such a strong presence and I don't recall they were assisted much at any one time -- and so there were instances during the race where G seemed to use a lot of nervous energy on the hellingen, which would have soured his legs and fatigued him plenty.

No surprise by Vanmarcke chasing to get back onto the peloton, don't believe it was a mechanical, but that he just couldn't get back on when approaching that small rise, showed his poor form, he just gave up, he was spent, quite incredible from such a class rider, where is the Vanmarcke of old would have blitzed that portion and joined easily. Interesting tactics by the Gorilla, I thought he was joking around at first, but it was a clear tactic, nevertheless he was always going to have to pay for it, you can't just clear out to get a lead on the hellingen and then stay with the selections over it. Yes, also surprised by Degenkolb, but it really is a big difference in this race to make the hellingen in some style and be there amongst the calculations for the podium -- he requires much more improvement to make that step. Sagan, no surprise really, but the huffing and puffing is quite obvious this season, isn't it. GVA was always going to be combative but it was too little too late. Benoot, simply amazing again. Finally, not surprised by the result either, Terpstra was rolling through quite nicely towards the end, but now I think it was to put Kristoff off, which was never going to happen, which would've meant he was using a little more energy to make it look easier than it was -- however for anyone who watched 3 Days of De Panne, that result was nailed on, as they say in the classics. Cool

Cheers,
SP
Report marychain1 April 5, 2015 5:42 PM BST
Anyone else want to do the fred for Paris Roubaix?
Report SwingingPick April 5, 2015 5:52 PM BST
Are pictures a must, MC? Mischief
Report ClayDavis April 5, 2015 8:13 PM BST
I can't for the life of me understand Terpstra's tactics. Take one of the strongest and fastest men in the peloton to 5km to go us a mystery to one and all. He had Stybar and Vandenburgh in the main group 30 secs behind......at 13km/12km to go he should have stopped working to either force Kristoff to do all the work and jump him with 3 or 4 km to go or force Kristoff back into the pack hoping to win the sprint where you have two men who can slingshot over the top of them

As dumb rides go,nth at was one of the dumbest I have seen in a long time


Degenkolb for Roubaix.......who has power to drop him? No one it looks
Report marychain1 April 5, 2015 8:51 PM BST
Course not SP.
Report nugget April 6, 2015 1:54 AM BST
being a pronounced favourite in a race where really there were many evenly matched riders who could win seemed to take it out of Thomas
Agree about Terpstra who basically settled for 2nd 40-50km out
Report SwingingPick April 6, 2015 3:20 AM BST
I'll get something up if you're busy MC, but I fear it won't be as colourful and encapsulated as your fine efforts. And, it'll take a couple of days, my main preparation so far has been form and terrain factors. Or I can get some background details up first if you like, let me know how you're travelling? SP
Report SwingingPick April 6, 2015 3:34 AM BST
Just on Terpstra's tactics -- they were obviously limited when Kristoff came through with him. If he attacked him on the final two famous hellingen he might have dropped Kristoff easily, but that would have meant he would have had to solo, and whilst Boonen signalled a longe-range attack by Terpstra, Terpstra is experienced enough to know he required someone strong with him. He was damned if he did and damned if he didn't, however he was willing to chance a win against one opponent than a group of opponents, and working with Kristoff he showed his character in thinking he might surprise the in-form Norwegian rider. Over such terrain and distance, there was the potential for him to surprise attack Kristoff a little out from the finish, and TT to the solo where his strength lies, that would have been the plan, and really only the major fault in his tactics for not attacking. He might've attacked Kristoff some 2kms out and put his head down, that was his opportunity gone, I would argue. SP
Report nugget April 6, 2015 3:48 AM BST
the writing on the wall for me with Kristoff wasn't his 3 out of 3 stage wins at the "3 days de Kristoff" (although the win in stage 1(the hard stage) led me to his 14-1 flanders price) it was the 3rd place in the TT, everyone could see he was strong.  Terpstra should of not worked with Kristoff, waited for a smaller bunch, say with Sagan and GVA, then with late attacks, with Kristoff being forced to close down such attacks would of given Terpstra his best chance of winning.  thats why I think he settled for second
Report SwingingPick April 6, 2015 6:02 AM BST
Okay, so Terpstra settled for second, but with Kristoff he was guaranteed second and a chance at the win, whilst in the favourites group he was guaranteed nothing.

As you said earlier nugget, Kristoff took that equation out of the calculations. Even when Terpstra refused to come through, Kristoff continued to ply his trade, knowing full-well that getting into an argument with Terpstra would have resulted in being joined by the chasers.

Perhaps, therefore, instead of focusing on the deficiency of Terpstra's tactics like Clay has presented, we might observe the strength of Kristoff's tactics in carving out for himself his second Monument in as many years, and in so doing perhaps following on with MC's thoughts in not thinking of Kristoff exclusively as a sprinter. This was big for Kristoff, but let's agree that his defence of MSR was his season's main goal.

Cheers,
SP
Report nugget April 6, 2015 7:07 AM BST
lol, Terpstra worked 50/50 untill about 1km to go. strange to see if you've watched much cycling

and no, you're wrong! Kristoff has said his main target was to win Flanders, was saying it ever since he almost single handedly bridged to the lead group of 4 last year. So having finished 4th and 5th in this race already it would only seem natural to me that it would be big goal for him, and is why many already know Kristoff is more than just a sprinter.
Report SwingingPick April 6, 2015 8:21 AM BST
I think I am best advised to concede your opinions here, nugget -- I haven't watched much cycling, you understand. BlushConfusedShockedSadMischiefSillyLaughLaughLaugh SP
Report SwingingPick April 6, 2015 8:21 AM BST
I think I am best advised to concede your opinions here, nugget -- I haven't watched much cycling, you understand. BlushConfusedShockedSadMischiefSillyLaughLaughLaugh SP
Report marychain1 April 6, 2015 9:22 AM BST
I don't mind what the fred looks like or whats in it SP, just thought someone else might want to have a go. I'm just kind of conscious that the whole forum is just freds started by me. Thought it might be best if we share it round a bit more & make it a team effort. If no-one wants to I'm perfectly happy to carry on doing it though.
Report SwingingPick April 6, 2015 1:07 PM BST
I don't think anyone else could be bothered from the traffic this forum gets, MC. I'm up for making a team effort of it, however unless it's the TdF nobody is going to bother I don't think. Maybe I'm wrong? Anyway, that's why I'm so grateful for your efforts, and if you have the time I would support your continued work, I think they're great thread starters. SP
Report marychain1 April 6, 2015 2:18 PM BST
If everyone's happy I'll just plough on then. I'll have the Paris Roubaix up by Tuesday night.
Report cedarmaster April 7, 2015 1:08 PM BST
you have set the bar too high for the rest of us MC , your work is excellent
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