*3 Days of De Panne* Tues 31 March - Thurs 2 April

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Tues 31 March - Stage 1  »  De Panne  ›  Zottegem   (201.6k)

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Weds 1 April - Stage 2  »  Zottegem (217.2k)

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Thurs 2 April - Stage 3a  »  De Panne (111.4k)

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Thurs 2 April - Stage 3b (ITT)  »  De Panne  ›  De Panne   (14.2k)

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STARTLIST http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Driedaagse_De_Panne_Koksijde_2015-startlist

3 Days of De Panne starts on Tuesday and the race sticks to the familiar format of recent years. The race is used by many as a warm up for next weekend's Tour of Flanders, but can be a brutal test for those just trying to keep the legs going between the two weekend classics.

Tuesday's Stage 1 sees the typical run from the coastal city of De Panne to Zottegem in the Flemish Ardennes for a finishing circuit that includes some of the famous hellingen such as the Valkenberg. Peter Saganhis has won this stage the last three years, beating his own Cannondale teammate Oscar Gatto last year, and holding off Demare & Kristoff in 2013.

Wednesday's Stage 2 takes in roads familiar from Gent Wevelgem and E3 Harelbeke, but most of the climbing is in the first half and this flattens out as we head back towards the coast and generally finishes in a bunch sprint, and we've seen Kittel hold of Kristoff, Cavendish beat Viviani & Modolo beat Demare in the recent versions of Stage 2.

Thursday sees a spilt stage. Stage 3a is a short flat stage starting and finishing in De Panne which should be another sprint and was won by Sacha Modolo last year, and Kristoff in both 2013 and 2014. Then Stage 3b in the afternoon is a short time trial which will normally settle the GC. Van Keirsbulck's 5th place was enough to win outright last year, and in 2012 and 2013 Sylvain Chavanel won both stage and GC.

So the outright winner will probably be a decent time triallist who can stay with or near the leaders in Stage 1 and in the bunch in Stage 2 and 3.

Can see why the books are taking their time pricing this up, looks impossible for layers.

BetVictor prices up - Wiggins favourite. Well, I can see why. IF he's on form he could be there or thereabouts on the sprints and make time on the ITT. But he's not been in form for a long while now, must be value elsewhere?

Wiggins 4/1
Durbridge 6/1
Sergeant 6/1
Van de Walle 13/2
Van Keirsbulck 7/1
Cummings 10/1
Kristoff 12/1
Debusschere 14/1
Vermote 16/1
Hepburn 25/1
Barta 33/1
Engoulvent 40/1
Le Bon 40/1
Devolder 40/1
Kolobnev 40/1

I've got someone I want to back for this but might just see what happens when the second set of prices go up

Right, I've taken two riders for the outright. I've decided to discount Wiggins, he could well turn up and blitz the field. I'm sure he is in good shape, but he takes up such a large percentage of the book and he's so unpredictable its easy to look beyond him. Van Keirsbulck, last year's winner, will be keen to defend but Etixx look quite weak for them, especially with only 6 named riders. Luke Durbridge and Johan Le Bon are the men I've gone for in the GC race. I've backed both riders for the first stage as well at big prices, but my main bets are for the outright. Both riders should be there or thereabouts in the TT Stage 3b, which is normally key. Le Bon has finished 4th and 8th in the time trial in the last two years, and finished 4th overall in 2013. Durbridge finished 2nd last year in the GC and was 7th the year before. I think both men will have both time trial and GC victory on their minds this year. I've backed Durbridge at 22/1 win only and Le Bon 40/1 ew. With the overall win possibly on their minds I'd like to see them ride up with the pace on the first stage. They may both be protecting their team sprinters but tomorrow is forecast to be very windy and quite possibly wet. I see Kristoff and Demare as favourites for tomorrow's stage but this could come down to stronger riders again so I'll take a chance on both my GC men in Stage 1 as well at 250/1 and 200/1 both ew.

GC
Luke Durbridge 22/1
Johan Le Bon 40/1ew

Stage 1
Luke Durbridge 250/1ew
Johan Le Bon 200/1ew

Can we get Lars Boom listed to the markets, 2nd fav for the race, 28/1 for the first stage with the bookies

I'll stick him on the runner request thread on the horse antepost forum, at least they look at that from time to time. The other way to get them to add things is to tweet their account or to use the live help.

Wind is apparently stronger than Gent-Wevelgem. Could be absolute carnage...

Wiggins at 4/1 fav? He's not going to be bothered with this is he? Just turning the legs over. Opposed him, although very little liquidity on the exchange.

The usual trick with this is just to back Chavanel and leave it run, but no iAM this year. I like a couple of 'no name' riders who are traded at big prices on the books but I've been unable to get matched on the exchange.

All over the place this. Should be able to steal a bit of value if you can ID riders.

Kristoff wins Stage 1 of 3 Days of De Panne ahead of
Debusschere
Dedvolder

Demare wins sprint from bunch ahead of Modolo

Stage 2

The lesson I take from stage 1 is not to look a gift horse in the mouth. I missed the wedding at 3/1, I'm not turning up to the funeral at shorty short short.

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Bunch sprint, Kristoff wins. Probably from Demare. No bet.

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Stage 2

The lesson I take from stage 1 is not to look a gift horse in the mouth. I missed the wedding at 3/1, I'm not turning up to the funeral at shorty short short.

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Bunch sprint, Kristoff wins. Probably from Demare. No bet.

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I really do like this mid-week mini tour race, it's like 3.5 cobbled classic stages, and it's always combative and entertaining. I just wish I had more time to devote to working on this race, however most of my spare time is revolving around the next two big ones.

The first stage again revealed Kristoff's sprinting consistency this season. I think this is a good hit-out for him, but why he was permitted to bridge across to the breakaway is quite confusing. No rider in that breakaway group could have matched Kristoff, and didn't.

Good to witness Bak to the future.

Looking forward to today's stage.

Cheers,
SP

Yeah, it's grown on me this race as well, although I didn't get to see today's stage. The interesting thing for me was trying to work out not just who was suited by the parcours but who would be racing to race, who was just there to keep the legs turning. No joy for me this week unless something outrageous happens tomorrow and I'm going to spend the rest of this evening concentrating on RVV.

Sorry CJ, missed your question there. Wiggins was coming into this to find form for RVV and PR, and unlikely to have gone for the win. Nevertheless, I would've been a little nervous as he has been quite dominant on the front for SKY in both stages so far, especially on stage 2 when he was causing some animosity right on the front of the peloton, however even if he should have a strong time-trial it won't be enough to win this, I don't think. I think that was the play, to follow you into laying Wiggins at such a short price.

Yes, I agree MC, that factor of determining who is in the race to race is the main question, and so it looks like it's more of a layer's market once that information is determined. No bets for me, just enjoying the riding.

Cheers,
SP

Would lay Wiggins in stage 3b as well but nobody seems to want to price it up. I should imagine he'll be stupidly short in this field, should win on paper but not sure he's that bothered.

Was expecting Wiggins to go off about 1.2 or 1.3. Will go small at 1.5

Oh crap. Wiggins nailing this.

Yeah so much for him not being bothered, absolutely smashed that.

Yep i think he wants this one.

He's looked very strong throughout this race, perfect prep for Paris-Roubaix

Wow! Have we just seen the new Spartacus there?

What the hell were they on about there? Kristoff never in danger of losing that.

the 3 days of de Kristoff