*Dwars Door Vlanderen* 25th March 2015

The 70th instalment of Dwars door Vlaanderen (A travers la Flandre) begins three exciting weeks of racing over the cobbles, which ends with Paris-Roubaix. This is an HC category race over 200kms and it's part of the Europe Tour circuit with a 2nd-division start list. SKY have decided to miss the race, and even with a reserve list of riders EQS look strong with Niki Terpstra, who has won this race twice in the past three years. He is the legitimate favourite at 5/1 with PP, could even be a bit shorter, since it is quite clear he has targeted this race as a hard hit-out for his cobbles campaign, and it's difficult to see who in the peloton might go with him if he opens the engine like he did last year. Fair value. Rated highly. The one to beat. ** WIN ONLY.

The only other rider I like is another rider on the first line of betting, whom appears to match the class level of this race, and that is LTS's Jens Debusschere at 8/1 with PP, although I cannot have him at that price. Should be 25/1. The young Belgian champion is being talked about as the next big name in Belgian cycling, and he has had a good start to the season in the classics with a 12th place finish in OHN followed by a 7th place finish in KBK. He is however, still missing a significant cobbles title on his palmares, and a win here is required to confirm his talked-about promise. May figure in the finish. Take on trust.

Good luck to all,
SP

I've thrown a few quid at Trek's Stijn Devolder at 80/1 and Oliver Naesen at 150/1. Topsort Vlaanderen Baloise have got a lot of promising young riders. Eddy Theuns has shown up well, Jelle Wallays won Paris-Tours last year. I've taken a chance that Naesen can have a go tomorrow.

added smaller bets on Jonas Van Genechten at 66/1 and Moreno Hofland at 50/1

Debusschere is getting out towards 25/1 now SP, PP have gone 16/1. See Keukelaire lines up for Orica. He could be a dangerous proposition. 9th last year and seems to be improving at a rate of knots.

Jens Keukeleire is definitely another one of those promising young Belgian riders that fits into the class of this race, however I believe his knee is still bothering him. OGE have done well signing him so early in his career, and evidently he is happy in the team, but I'm willing to wait to see at this stage. Stijn Devolder is a proven performer over the cobbles, no doubt, however at mid-30s I question whether he can handle the hellingen first-up over the cobbles season to figure in the finish. If he is having a fair cobbles campaign than Paris-Roubaix may be a better fit, at this stage of his career, I think. Moreno Hofland is backing-up after MSR and whilst he is young and may respond well to hard kms, I'm not really a believer at this stage. Oliver Naesen looks an interesting proposition and the other young riders you mention may become involved in race-winning moves, but if Terpstra is there he'll be racing against inferior opposition and that goes a long way, I'm hoping, anyway.

Good luck mate,
SP

Jens Debusschere continues to drift, now 18/1 with PP. If he goes out further I will definitely become involved. 25/1 would represent the upper limit, so will continue following the movements. SP

How funny is Movistar's lineup by the way? Quintana, Amador, Castroviejo, Erviti, Gadret, Izagirre, Malori, Ventoso Guess that's one way of getting them all ready for the pave in the Tour...

Maybe Ventoso might handle the conditions to some extent, doesn't really have the experience, but you raise an interesting and important point with respect to the TdF pave stage this year. Unlike last year this is going to be a proper stage, roughly 70kms more, tactically nuanced, and arguably much tougher. Jokes aside, MOV are giving their riders pave experience under race conditions, and they must work out how to keep Quintana safe as the main objective.

Big go for Terpstra, has shortened from 5/1 into 9/4.

Cheers,
SP

Devolder has just been brought down by Lars Boom when looking good in the first chase group

Kwiatowski done a lot of work in this group of 4 out front. Surely Theuns and Wallays can carve this up between them if the group stays out? Taken Wallays at 10s ir

Also taken Maes at 33/1 and Van Keirsbulck at 150/1 as they seem to still be in the chase group

marychain1 24 Mar 15 13:25
I've thrown a few quid at Trek's Stijn Devolder at 80/1 and Oliver Naesen at 150/1. Topsort Vlaanderen Baloise have got a lot of promising young riders. Eddy Theuns has shown up well, Jelle Wallays won Paris-Tours last year. I've taken a chance that Naesen can have a go tomorrow.

Ha ha I mention the riders that come first and second, then pick their teammate who comes nowhere...at least I got on Wallays in running at 10s.

This is interesting. Betfair have settled my bet on Wallays as a loser. Looking closer, the person I bet on was Jens Wallays. They moved the 4 people in the break to the top of the market and he was into 10s so I assumed this was the person I wanted to bet on. Didn't even realise there was another Wallays in the race. Don't know if there was or if they just got the name wrong.

OK so Jens Wallays also rides for Topsport and definitely wasn't in the race. So they put the wrong Wallays in the race, moved him to the top of the market when the other Wallays was in the break and now settle my bet on that rider as a loser! That is a quite staggering level of incompetence!

ouch! Mary...i suppose to be fair to BF their rules clearly state all bets stand run or not.

I think the riders attracting the most volumes in running are moved up to the top of the list by BF software.

wonder how much was matched...some very shrewd layers on ere (how many knew there were 2 Wallays in the Topsport team?)

must admit it's a rare and unfortunate scenario gone against you there mate.

I can understand their position if both riders were in the race and both riders were in the market. But with only one rider in the race, and only one rider in the market they have clearly just put the wrong rider in the market.

Okay, so Boom, reprising his role as the cobbles hero of TdF 14, forges out in pursuit of the 4-man breakaway, he is clearly looking the goods and I'm of the opinion he will make it across, until he comes around a slippery, muddy corner and crashes into the field. I think he might have tangled with a motorbike, but nevertheless the motorbike comes off the road also. It's only a little later that Devolder and perhaps two other riders come off at the same corner, certainly when Boom came off he was by himself, except for the motorbike.

The remnants of the peloton, the chasing group, are being badly disrupted by the two EQS riders who have Kwiatkowski in the break, and like MC I'm thinking he is going to have be very good to not get mugged by the two TSV working as an eventual tag team -- they're perhaps not that experienced so the WC has a fair chance of winning. Not to be.

The chasing group are not really combining effectively, they have the Belgian champion and his team-mate doing the lion share of the work with Drucker of BMC and Kuznetsov of Katusha, and that's pretty much it until Kuznetsov rides off the front and gets trapped in no-mans-land. The closest they ever got was probably only 37secs, and it's clear the breakaway have got this between them, very early in the piece.

This Benoot kid of LTS, riding for the Belgian champion in the breakaway, absolutely turned himself inside-out, had countless turns, long turns -- very exciting rider and well worth watching closely. Having said that, some riders will ride really well when in service for the team, and just not be able to do that when riding for themselves. In any case, Tiesj Benoot, even looks a bit like Kwiatkowski in his team photo, certainly has the goods -- very impressed by that ride.

In conclusion, the race upholds the ProContinental class of racing, even though some big names have won this race in the past -- sadly Terpstra never brought his legs and was a no-show as a result! Still a good race, not a good result for me.

Cheers,
SP

I feel for your situation MC, I believe I might have once fallen into the same trap with one of the Izagirre brothers -- lesson learned!

Totally agree with you there mate but the shrewdies must have known the wrong rider was on the list and based on the rules layed accordingly...

Jelle Wallays (BEL)     11 May 1989 (age 25)
Jens Wallays (BEL)     15 September 1992 (age 22)

Mar 25, 2015 -- 6:01PM, tashkent terror wrote:

Totally agree with you there mate but the shrewdies must have known the wrong rider was on the list and based on the rules layed accordingly... Jelle Wallays (BEL)     11 May 1989 (age 25) Jens Wallays (BEL)     15 September 1992 (age 22)

got to watch out for the cycling "shrewdies" .  nice of them to move the rider to the top of the page "in the run" who wasn't even in the race
terpstra not even listed for gw

I got a call yesterday from someone at BF Customer Service. They acknowledged that they had made a mistake by adding Jens Wallays to the market and compounded it by moving him to the top of the market. They said however, that ultimately its each bettors own responsibility to fully check all bets and that the market would still be settled as per the terms and conditions - namely all bets stand whether the runner runs or not. They did put a free bet on my account. I'm reasonably satisfied with that outcome, at least someone got back to me in the end.