*Dwars Door Vlanderen* 25th March 2015

The 70th instalment of Dwars door Vlaanderen (A travers la Flandre) begins three exciting weeks of racing over the cobbles, which ends with Paris-Roubaix. This is an HC category race over 200kms and it's part of the Europe Tour circuit with a 2nd-division start list. SKY have decided to miss the race, and even with a reserve list of riders EQS look strong with Niki Terpstra, who has won this race twice in the past three years. He is the legitimate favourite at 5/1 with PP, could even be a bit shorter, since it is quite clear he has targeted this race as a hard hit-out for his cobbles campaign, and it's difficult to see who in the peloton might go with him if he opens the engine like he did last year. Fair value. Rated highly. The one to beat. ** WIN ONLY.

The only other rider I like is another rider on the first line of betting, whom appears to match the class level of this race, and that is LTS's Jens Debusschere at 8/1 with PP, although I cannot have him at that price. Should be 25/1. The young Belgian champion is being talked about as the next big name in Belgian cycling, and he has had a good start to the season in the classics with a 12th place finish in OHN followed by a 7th place finish in KBK. He is however, still missing a significant cobbles title on his palmares, and a win here is required to confirm his talked-about promise. May figure in the finish. Take on trust.

Good luck to all,
SP

added smaller bets on Jonas Van Genechten at 66/1 and Moreno Hofland at 50/1

Jens Keukeleire is definitely another one of those promising young Belgian riders that fits into the class of this race, however I believe his knee is still bothering him. OGE have done well signing him so early in his career, and evidently he is happy in the team, but I'm willing to wait to see at this stage. Stijn Devolder is a proven performer over the cobbles, no doubt, however at mid-30s I question whether he can handle the hellingen first-up over the cobbles season to figure in the finish. If he is having a fair cobbles campaign than Paris-Roubaix may be a better fit, at this stage of his career, I think. Moreno Hofland is backing-up after MSR and whilst he is young and may respond well to hard kms, I'm not really a believer at this stage. Oliver Naesen looks an interesting proposition and the other young riders you mention may become involved in race-winning moves, but if Terpstra is there he'll be racing against inferior opposition and that goes a long way, I'm hoping, anyway.

Good luck mate,
SP

How funny is Movistar's lineup by the way? Quintana, Amador, Castroviejo, Erviti, Gadret, Izagirre, Malori, Ventoso Guess that's one way of getting them all ready for the pave in the Tour...

Devolder has just been brought down by Lars Boom when looking good in the first chase group

Also taken Maes at 33/1 and Van Keirsbulck at 150/1 as they seem to still be in the chase group

This is interesting. Betfair have settled my bet on Wallays as a loser. Looking closer, the person I bet on was Jens Wallays. They moved the 4 people in the break to the top of the market and he was into 10s so I assumed this was the person I wanted to bet on. Didn't even realise there was another Wallays in the race. Don't know if there was or if they just got the name wrong.

ouch! Mary...i suppose to be fair to BF their rules clearly state all bets stand run or not.

I think the riders attracting the most volumes in running are moved up to the top of the list by BF software.

wonder how much was matched...some very shrewd layers on ere (how many knew there were 2 Wallays in the Topsport team?)

must admit it's a rare and unfortunate scenario gone against you there mate.

Okay, so Boom, reprising his role as the cobbles hero of TdF 14, forges out in pursuit of the 4-man breakaway, he is clearly looking the goods and I'm of the opinion he will make it across, until he comes around a slippery, muddy corner and crashes into the field. I think he might have tangled with a motorbike, but nevertheless the motorbike comes off the road also. It's only a little later that Devolder and perhaps two other riders come off at the same corner, certainly when Boom came off he was by himself, except for the motorbike.

The remnants of the peloton, the chasing group, are being badly disrupted by the two EQS riders who have Kwiatkowski in the break, and like MC I'm thinking he is going to have be very good to not get mugged by the two TSV working as an eventual tag team -- they're perhaps not that experienced so the WC has a fair chance of winning. Not to be.

The chasing group are not really combining effectively, they have the Belgian champion and his team-mate doing the lion share of the work with Drucker of BMC and Kuznetsov of Katusha, and that's pretty much it until Kuznetsov rides off the front and gets trapped in no-mans-land. The closest they ever got was probably only 37secs, and it's clear the breakaway have got this between them, very early in the piece.

This Benoot kid of LTS, riding for the Belgian champion in the breakaway, absolutely turned himself inside-out, had countless turns, long turns -- very exciting rider and well worth watching closely. Having said that, some riders will ride really well when in service for the team, and just not be able to do that when riding for themselves. In any case, Tiesj Benoot, even looks a bit like Kwiatkowski in his team photo, certainly has the goods -- very impressed by that ride.

In conclusion, the race upholds the ProContinental class of racing, even though some big names have won this race in the past -- sadly Terpstra never brought his legs and was a no-show as a result! Still a good race, not a good result for me.

Cheers,
SP

I feel for your situation MC, I believe I might have once fallen into the same trap with one of the Izagirre brothers -- lesson learned!