*Milan-San Remo* Sunday 22 March 2015

SPOILSPORTS are going 4 places Each Way. Here is the market.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/milan-san-remo/winner

Sagan 11/2
Kristoff 6/1
Cavendish 8/1
Degenkob 14/1
Cancellara 16/1
Lobato 22/1
Van Avermaet 28/1
Matthews 28/1
Gilbert 33/1
Kwiatowski 33/1
Bouhanni 33/1
Griepel 40/1
Swift 50/1
Stybar 50/1
Demare 50/1
Haussler 50/1

Correction from my earlier post where I said the same route as 2014 as there is a slight finish. The finish this year is on the historical Via Roma. This is a wider road than the seaside finish used last year, but it is approximately 50 metres less flat after the descent of the Poggio.

Route


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Last few kms

Excited for this race on Sunday, I like the chance to find the big price to grab a place or even hope the stars align for a win.

So far these last few weeks I have Gallopin, Roelandts, Cimolai and Tom Doumolin each way at fancy prices.

The top two are rightly favourites but I would worry they may be isolated if they have to pull back a group. Kristoff may find that he is a marked man this year and does not find many allies in a way that Sagan found himself in for much of last year to his detriment.

I feel Cav is being sneakily quite low key and the last time he did that he won here, he may just be hiding some conditioning to have another assault at this, though he has been ill lately so that may discount him. Of the other sprinters I have not been to impressed with Degenkolb lately and can see this being a year or two to early for Bouhanni. Greipel should be just about off the pack again over the Poggio as well for me.

I would really quite like to be on Lobato at some of the fancy prices before he was cut right in, he will be there in the lead main group for the sprint and will go close for me. Styber also for me could be a sneaky one, he obviously has other targets in a few more weeks but he is in good form already and gets away in a good group, he has a underrated kick and could go close.

Should be exciting up and over the Poggio, good luck all.

Greipel is going to be one of my plays in this. 66/1 4 places with Spoils.

Here are the top contenders for Milan-San Remo. The ratings are mine, and just for a bit of fun.

Peter Sagan (Tinkoff - Saxo) Best price 11/2
MSR history= 2nd (2013), 4th (2012), 10th (2014), 17th (2011)
Career highlights= 7 Grand Tour stages, Gent - Wevelgem  ('13),  E3 Harelbeke  ('14)
Hardman Rating= 8
Sprint Finish= 8
Form= 8
Team Strength= 8

Alexander Kristoff 6/1 (Katusha)
MSR history= Victory (2014), 8th (2013)
Career highlights= 2 Grand Tour stages,  Milano-Sanremo  ('14)
Hardman Rating= 8
Sprint Finish= 9
Form= 10
Team Strength= 7

Mark Cavendish (Etixx - Quickstep) Best price 8/1
MSR history= Victory (2009), 5th (2014), 9th (2013)
Career highlights= 43 Grand Tour stages,  Milano-Sanremo  ('09)
Hardman Rating= 7
Sprint Finish= 10
Form= 8
Team Strength= 10

John Degenkob (Giant – Alpecin) Best price 14/1
MSR history= 5th (2012), 18th (2013)
Career highlights= 10 Grand Tour stages, Gent-Wevelgem In Flanders Fields (’14)
Hardman Rating= 6
Sprint Finish= 8
Form= 8
Team Strength= 8

Fabian Cancellara (Trek Factory Racing) Best price 16/1
MSR history= Victory (2008), 3x 2nd (2014, 2012, 2011), 3rd (2013), 17th (2010), 25th (2006)
Career highlights= 7 Grand Tour stages, 3x Paris - Roubaix  ('13, '10, '06),  3x Ronde van Vlaanderen / Tour des Flandres  ('14, '13, '10), Milano-Sanremo  ('08)
Hardman Rating= 10
Sprint Finish= 7
Form= 8
Team Strength= 10

JJ Lobato Best price (Movistar) 22/1
MSR history= 4th (2014)
Career highlights= no Grand Tour stages or classic wins
Hardman Rating= 6
Sprint Finish= 8
Form= 8
Team Strength= 8

Greg Van Avermaet (BMC) Best price 28/1
MSR history= 9th (2011), 13th (2009), 25th (2014)
Career highlights= 1 Grand Tour win
Hardman Rating= 8
Sprint Finish= 7
Form= 9
Team Strength= 8

Michael ‘Bling’ Matthews (Orica Greenedge) Best price 28/1
MSR history=highest finish 78th 2014
Career highlights=4 Grand Tour stages
Hardman Rating= 6
Sprint Finish= 8
Form= 9
Team Strength= 8

Phil Gilbert Best price (BMC) 33/1
MSR history= 2x 3rd (2011, 2008), 6th (2005), 9th (2010), 13th (2014), 14th (2004), 21st(2007), 23rd (2009)
Career highlights= 5 Grand Tour stages, 3x Amstel Gold Race  ('14, '11, '10),  2x Giro di Lombardia  ('10, '09), Liège-Bastogne-Liège  ('11), World Championships Road Race  ('12)
Hardman Rating= 9
Sprint Finish= 7
Form= 7
Team Strength= 8

Michael Kwiatowski (Etixx – Quickstep) Best price 33/1
MSR history=twice raced, both DNF
Career highlights= World Championships Road Race  ('14)
Hardman Rating= 9
Sprint Finish= 7
Form= 10
Team Strength= 10

Nacer Bouhanni (Cofidis) Best price 33/1
MSR history=never raced
Career highlights= 5 Grand Tour stages
Hardman Rating= 8
Sprint Finish= 9
Form= 5
Team Strength= 6

Andre Griepel (Lotto Soudal) Best price 66/1
MSR history=raced 4 times, best finish 24th
Career highlights=12 Grand Tour stages
Hardman Rating= 8
Sprint Finish= 9
Form= 6
Team Strength= 8

Ben Swift (Sky)  Best price 50/1
MSR history= 3rd (2014)
Career highlights=no Grand Tour or classic wins
Hardman Rating= 7
Sprint Finish= 8
Form= 7
Team Strength= 8

Zdenek Stybar (Etixx) Best price 50/1
MSR history=7th (2014)
Career highlights=1 Grand Tour stage win
Hardman Rating= 9
Sprint Finish= 7
Form= 10
Team Strength= 10

Arnaud Demare (FDJ) Best price 50/1
MSR history=twice raced, best finished 34th.
Career highlights= no Grand Tour or classic wins
Hardman Rating= 7
Sprint Finish= 9
Form= 5
Team Strength= 7

OK then, my picks. I do think Kristoff is a serious danger to everyone, but I think we could see a surprise winner this year. Because the three favourites are all so strong in a sprint I wonder whether they might get isolated trying to pull an escapee back. It's also worth considering sprinters that have not shown their best form yet this year. I had been backing Arnaud Demare for this antepost at shorter prices than he will go off at. His form is awful this year, and I've all but written the bet off. I have no doubt that he is a future winner/contender of this but looking at the typical profile of a winner of this race he is too young anyway at 23.

I'm looking for someone who fits the bill as a top sprinter but who is going under the radar. That man is Andre Griepel. Although he hasn't been on the premises for the sprint yet in any of his attempts in this race, on his day only Cav and possibly Kristoff in this field are as fast. He's team leader for Lotto but what I like about him this year is he seems to have focussed on this race, with a much lighter schedule early season. He has two stage wins in Algarve and in Paris-Nice. 66/1 4 places was available with Spoilsports and I took that. I think he'll get over the Poggio and if he's in the sprint he's second favourite to Cav in my eyes. My second bet is Zdenek Stybar. He's possibly 3rd bullet for Etixx behind Cav and Kwiatowski, but while those two might well be marked men Stybar could win this either from a select group or solo, something that certainly Cav couldn't do. There is just so much to like about him. He is an ultra hard man, he has no issues with bad weather, his bike handling skills are superb. He will definitely get over the climbs and he's bang in form having just won Strade Bianchi. The only question is whether he buries himself for his two team leaders but I'll take a chance on him at 50/1. My third pick is Ben Swift. I have taken 50/1 4 places. He's team leader for Sky, he has proven he can do the distance, climbs and get in the final sprint. He may not quite have the out-and-out speed of the favourites but he has laid his season out for this race and he is a real danger to everyone if he's in a select group at the end.

(Demare 33/1)
Griepel 66/1 4 places
Stybar 50/1
Swift 50/1 4 places

Good luck all.

Good preview here http://cyclinghub.tv/post?id=455

John Degenkolb for me. Was going like the winner last year until a late puncture. Went and won Gent V after to show how good his form was. This race is tailor made for him

Anyone backing SAGAN wants their head tested until he proves he has what he takes to deliver. He knows how to lose alright

Perhaps my views on Degenkolb and Greipel are skewed a little in the hope they slip out the back to allow my bets on Tom Doum, Gallopin and Roelants to go for the win.

66/1 Griepel is a real nice bet to be sitting on tbh. I remember his breaks up the road over the hills at Flanders and the Eneco where he showed real fight to get over the top of a few sharp climbs.

This is such an open race as always, really starting to look forward to it now.

Be interesting to see if the wider road but shorter run in after the Poggio means that lead out trains will be more important this year.

fantastic race in prospect and the bookies seem to be getting wiser in pricing these races up.

at the odds i am happy to have a little e/w on the 2013 winner GERALD CIOLEK @ 66/1

there is little value in the front 3, i love Stybar but think he will be better suited by Roubaix

Again, Peter Sagan's versatility cannot be ignored, the Via Roma finish brings in the outright sprinters by way of the “classic” finish, but it also brings the Poggio closer to the finish, making a breakaway that little more likely of succeeding. Sagan has shown he can match it with the sprinters, or match the puncheurs with an attack up the Poggio. For all the hype he always generates around the classics, he is in this race this year with a crack outfit. No doubt whatsoever, and that is what really brings him into calculations. Last year, on the Cipressa, Sagan was following lone teammate DeMarchi when Nibali decided to launch his attack. This year, I would very-much expect that he has a minimum of three riders with him by that stage of the race, if not one more on that total, which gives him tactical options other riders can only dream about, although as Clay rightly reminds us, last year Sagan proved to be a tactical novice when among the race-wining moves in the classics. Nevertheless, this season he finally nabbed his first victory in the penultimate stage 6 of Tirreno-Adriatico covering 210kms in inclement conditions. Appears to be coming into this at the right time. One of the main contenders. 11/2 (various). WIN ONLY. **.

In 2013, the man they call Yogi, because of his bear-like strength, was included in SKY's MSR list in order to work for Geraint Thomas. And, Ian Stannard did - very-much - work for Thomas in cold and wet conditions, however when Thomas crashed out of the race Stannard became a free agent, and with this new-found freedom he attacked some 2kms from the finish, but just couldn't hang on because of the effort he had put in throughout the day, chasing down the break. Stannard nevertheless hung on for 6th place and proved he was a legitimate classics rider, although the distance of that year's MSR edition was only 245kms. This season he didn't really do much prior to his superlative OHN defence, but he did have a good training ride in Tirreno-Adriatico, last start, and should still have kept most of his form. I've watched OHN a number of times now and I cannot remember Yogi looking so beefy and sitting on the bike so powerfully, almost like a track sprinter. But more than that, he appears to have adopted the powerful and heroic style of Spartacus on the bike; and now coming into his prime, I think we may be seeing Stannard becoming a first-rate classics rider. Yes, Yogi may be in the race this year as a super-domestique for Ben Swift after Swift's podium finish last year, however with cold and wet weather again expected along the route, the indefatigable Ian Stannard becomes a very interesting proposition. May require some luck in running. Not to be discounted lightly. Very good value at 125/1 (various). E/W. *.

Heinrich Haussler appeared destined to become a big name rider on the back of his 2009 season's results, which read -- OHN 9th. KBK 12th. MSR 2nd over 298kms. DDV 4th. E3 16th. Flanders 2nd. Roubaix 6th. TdF stage 13 win. However, he experienced a nagging knee injury, followed by what he described recently as “ups and downs, up and downs, coming back, building up, getting down, building up”. Nevertheless, he put all that behind him straight-out-of-the-boxes when he won the Australian National Road Race in a workmanlike fashion. In addition, his confident, weaving ride in the stage 1 finale of Paris-Nice to finish in 4th place, appeared like it might act as a real confidence boost to his sprinting credentials this year. Has claims. 80/1 (various) E/W. Should be 200/1. 1/4*.

Kris Boeckmans. His best finish here was in 2012 when he finished in 50th place. Appears to be riding in very good form, and whilst he may in a team with stronger fancied riders, he is giving some indication that he may be amongst the race-winning moves. Has small claims. 80/1 WIN ONLY. Should be 500/1. 1/8*.

Good luck to all,
SP

I would be very surprised if there's any significant trains involved MC, a Monument with a "classic" finale is unlikely to provide that type of organized sprint finish, if it is a sprint finish. More likely, we'll get a proper bar-room brawl where anything goes and most are in it for themselves. I believe RCS Sport race organisers, by including the Via Roma, have gone back to the Pompeiana drawing board, and figured they can manufacture the "classic" selection for the race this way. We'll see. Undoubtedly though, we'll get suffering and heroics in very tough conditions.

Hi guys, Great read as usual.
Really fancy MICHAEL MATTHEWS for this, seems to be one of his seasons big goal. Has really put a lot of work in to this, rather than go back to aus for the early season he stayed in europe and has put in a lot of preparation during the winter for today, he says he has ridden pogio at least 25 - 30 times, has spoken at length with Oscar freire, so does seem to really want to do well here. And there is no question his late start to the season has not effected his form, as he showed just what great shape he is in at Paris-Nice against more race fit rivals. He got better with each sprint, finishing, 10th, 4th, then winning stage 3 with many of todays rivals behind including Kristoff. The other thing I like about Matthews is he is capable of following a big move on the poggio or being competitive in a bunch sprint, he says he has gone through all scenarios and feels he is as prepared as he can be. He will have a strong team working for him, and I can't see him not being involved in the finish. 22/1 seems excellent ew value.

At a bigger price as an outsider bet, like SP, i also like STANNARD. For all the reasons SP states above, and because Sky are flying right now. As a team they are determined to win one of the big classics, and I feel there best chance here would be if the race is blown apart on the poggio. If a big attack does go off there, i would expect Sky to have a rider involved and i can see Stannard or Thomas trying to go with any major move, more likely Stannard. so he seems well worth a little ew bet at 125/1.
Gl all

Hey HB, thanks for sharing your suggestions -- are you not concerned by Bling's lack of racing?: 1136.8 km in 8 race days, strictly coming from Paris-Nice, and some of those days were cruising speed. Not attempting to discount his chances, since luck is such a major factor and influences the dynamics of the race, but I wonder if you think he is as sharp as he would be after a decent block of hard racing? SP

due to the usual Betfair administrative mess my account was suspended but thankfully just got it back in time.

having read some excellent posts and suggestions i am surprised that not one person has mention this season form man GVA or the World Champ MK. They may be riding for team leaders here but they must be in with a shout but wont carry my money.

I have already done Ciolek as stated earlier but the arguments for Stannard are quite strong and it is hard to argue so i will have a little @ 110 on here

Good luck every one wished live coverage started before 1.30pm but i guess thats what twitter is for

I've been looking into backing another couple for tomorrow but I just cannot make my mind up. The shortening of the line to the Poggio has made this year's race even more difficult to judge.

BMC should be making of the race though with their strong team and should be the deciding factor in how many sprinters are left over the top.

I do think one of Phil or GVA will go over the top of Poggio with an Etixx rider but after that my heads fried, the more you try to think of possible scenarios the more difficult it gets...

Should be fun though.

Sagan, Cancellara, Gilbert, GVA, Swift, Stannard, Stybar, and a whole load more would be best served by attacking towards the top of the Poggio. Can't wait for tomorrow.

Stannard for me with PP at 100s on Friday, e/w. GL.

GVA is definitely in very good form and a big danger if amongst it in a possible race-winning selection, but I question his ability to get out of the saddle to initiate an attack, or close one, or even sprint for the line in the finale. After such a distance, and I note if disagree with MC's "hardman rating", it takes a special type of hard riding to be sharp and strong in the finale. That's why I like to use the bar-room brawl analogy. Who, in such a close combat scenario is the person who is going to withstand being smashed over the head with a chair or table, and still get up off the ground to grab a chair or table of his own, or fashion a club from such furniture -- to clobber over the head those that are holding their own? Over this distance, I would argue such supple riders like GVA or Kwiatkowski give away "weight" to riders who are proven over the distance. That extra 40-50kms is a big factor - especially if a rider has had to do some actual work - between a rider being sharp to continue attacking or following, or simply being dragged along because he is flat or close to empty, and essentially just hanging on.

On Kwiatkowski, there's a commanding belief if not issue within the team about what they're calling #OurWay. It means that they're genuinely willing to sacrifice themselves for another teammate, or the principal, from the outset in a race. I therefore think Kwiatkowski only gets his opportunity if Cav indicates he is not up for it, or if he crashes out. I accept that all the teams have a similar understanding, however in this case the riders of EQS actually genuinely seem to believe it -- they're such a powerhouse dream team!

Cheers,
SP

GVA seem's in recent years to have nearly given up allowing himself a fair chance in reduced sprints. So often he has attacked once, twice or more from small groups then been forced to open his sprint with heavy legs.

I really like his attacking riding but I do wonder if he would have won more if he had shown a little bit more faith in his sprint, his win at Tirreno reminded us he has a great kick.

And yes I do remember Stannard beating him at last year's Omloop in case anyone is going to mention it 

282 km remaining 11 riders make the break. Molana (Colombia), Barta (Bora Argon), Peron (Novo Nordisk), Tjiallingi (Lotto-Jumbo), Frapporti and & Dall'Antonia (Androni), Pirazzi (Bardiani), Kurek (Polkovice), Pauwels (MTN Qhubeka), Berard (Ag2r) and Bono (Lampre) are the group who have 1 min 50 on the peloton

260 km remaining The advantage of the break is now out to 9min 50 secs

I've nicked this from cyclingnews.com: The break's lead continues to rise through the opening hour of racing. As they approach Pavia, their advantage is already touching almost ten minutes. 11 minutes, incidentally, was the maximum lead built up on the last occasion that the early break made it all the way to the finish in San Remo. In 1982, a group of 13 broke clear in the streets of Milan, and Marc Gomez was the last man standing, after he dropped Alain Bondue on the way down the Poggio. A disappointed Moreno Argentin pipped Francesco Moser in the sprint for third after the group of favourites left their chase effort too late. Slim chance of a repeat in the radio earpiece era, mind.

Seems the weather is abysmal so I like Kristoff but can't back him at that price, may look to pick something up in play. Sagan is a lay all day for me.

My main choice is Degenkolb, but will look out in play for Colbrelli, Griepel & Swift.

For once I think Sagan is good value.  Under Riis I think he will be peaking more for the big races than he did previously when he was under pressure to get results every week.  Rain around is very much in his favour and against the sprinters plus the attackers look stronger than the chasers anyway this year. 

Of the rest the Lampre has some good chances.  They should get at least one of Costa, Pozzato, Cimolai on the podium

202km remaining break at 7.45 mins

Into the last 150km and the break's lead is under 5 mins

65km remaining break still has 3m 35. Cold weather jackets coming off now as we approach the three little climbs before the Cipressa

Thomas and Swift get a good spec for the Cipressa climb anyway - here we go

Attack. Crash.

Game over for Demare.

Sky setting a searing tempo, this has got to hurt the sprinters

Looks like Degenkolb-Sagan-Bling?

Degenkolb, Kristoff, Bling. Sagan 4th.

Great race, brave ride from Thomas really wanted him to go all the way. Got my each way monies with matthews but a bit gutted as thought he could have won if he had made his move just a second earlier.

Well played ClayDavis and CJ70 who had Degenkolb. Cracking race that as always. Next we've got Catalunya including Froome and Bertie starting tomorrow, E3 Harelbeke on Wednesday and Gent-Wevelgem next Sunday

Really enjoyed that. Backed Swift & Bouhanni in play so takes a shine off a good result.

Sagan is the new GVA.

Yes, to echo MC, congratulations to CJ and Clay who both had Degenkolb, and many thanks to you MC for authoring and upkeep of the thread -- great work!

I don't think I heard Stannard mentioned even once, and SKY tactics seemed a little strange to ride off the front like that, pretty-much put paid to Swift's chances I remembered thinking, but was hoping that it at least left the door open for Stannard. Not to be. Sagan didn't do much wrong, you could tell he was feeling strong, and toward the bottom of the descent of the Poggio, when he was leading, you could see he actually tested his speed against those behind with that track style of pushing down on the the rear wheel -- a "power role" lets call it. Even in the sprint, he was perfectly positioned, and got out in time, but just didn't have the full sprint kick of Degenkolb. The head-on angle shows Degenkolb pounding on those pedals as strong as Kittel. Bling, on that performance, is obviously one of those young riders that doesn't require a lot of kms in the legs to perform near peak -- good ride by him after holding a forward position on the Cipressa. Kwiatkowski -- curse of the Rainbow Jersey, I guess. Greipel and Cav were struggling pretty early on, and so was Kristoff actually, so big result for him comes courtesy of Paolini who was like a guide-dog for him for the important parts in shepherding him back into proceedings and working on the front in the finale.

Cheers,
SP

Degenkolb won Milan San Remo, Gent VW, 2nd in Paris Roubaix.......much better Classics rider than SAGAN..........Degenkolb waited and waited and waited and didn't play his hand u til others had shown theirs.
SAGAN once again was tactically all over the place. Went a few lengths clear at the bottom of the Poggio and sat up.......he has to make up his mind and commit one way or another