*Milan-San Remo* Sunday 22 March 2015

Correction from my earlier post where I said the same route as 2014 as there is a slight finish. The finish this year is on the historical Via Roma. This is a wider road than the seaside finish used last year, but it is approximately 50 metres less flat after the descent of the Poggio.

Excited for this race on Sunday, I like the chance to find the big price to grab a place or even hope the stars align for a win.

So far these last few weeks I have Gallopin, Roelandts, Cimolai and Tom Doumolin each way at fancy prices.

The top two are rightly favourites but I would worry they may be isolated if they have to pull back a group. Kristoff may find that he is a marked man this year and does not find many allies in a way that Sagan found himself in for much of last year to his detriment.

I feel Cav is being sneakily quite low key and the last time he did that he won here, he may just be hiding some conditioning to have another assault at this, though he has been ill lately so that may discount him. Of the other sprinters I have not been to impressed with Degenkolb lately and can see this being a year or two to early for Bouhanni. Greipel should be just about off the pack again over the Poggio as well for me.

I would really quite like to be on Lobato at some of the fancy prices before he was cut right in, he will be there in the lead main group for the sprint and will go close for me. Styber also for me could be a sneaky one, he obviously has other targets in a few more weeks but he is in good form already and gets away in a good group, he has a underrated kick and could go close.

Should be exciting up and over the Poggio, good luck all.

Here are the top contenders for Milan-San Remo. The ratings are mine, and just for a bit of fun.

Alexander Kristoff 6/1 (Katusha)
MSR history= Victory (2014), 8th (2013)
Career highlights= 2 Grand Tour stages,  Milano-Sanremo  ('14)
Hardman Rating= 8
Sprint Finish= 9
Form= 10
Team Strength= 7

John Degenkob (Giant – Alpecin) Best price 14/1
MSR history= 5th (2012), 18th (2013)
Career highlights= 10 Grand Tour stages, Gent-Wevelgem In Flanders Fields (’14)
Hardman Rating= 6
Sprint Finish= 8
Form= 8
Team Strength= 8

JJ Lobato Best price (Movistar) 22/1
MSR history= 4th (2014)
Career highlights= no Grand Tour stages or classic wins
Hardman Rating= 6
Sprint Finish= 8
Form= 8
Team Strength= 8

Michael ‘Bling’ Matthews (Orica Greenedge) Best price 28/1
MSR history=highest finish 78th 2014
Career highlights=4 Grand Tour stages
Hardman Rating= 6
Sprint Finish= 8
Form= 9
Team Strength= 8

Michael Kwiatowski (Etixx – Quickstep) Best price 33/1
MSR history=twice raced, both DNF
Career highlights= World Championships Road Race  ('14)
Hardman Rating= 9
Sprint Finish= 7
Form= 10
Team Strength= 10

Andre Griepel (Lotto Soudal) Best price 66/1
MSR history=raced 4 times, best finish 24th
Career highlights=12 Grand Tour stages
Hardman Rating= 8
Sprint Finish= 9
Form= 6
Team Strength= 8

Zdenek Stybar (Etixx) Best price 50/1
MSR history=7th (2014)
Career highlights=1 Grand Tour stage win
Hardman Rating= 9
Sprint Finish= 7
Form= 10
Team Strength= 10

OK then, my picks. I do think Kristoff is a serious danger to everyone, but I think we could see a surprise winner this year. Because the three favourites are all so strong in a sprint I wonder whether they might get isolated trying to pull an escapee back. It's also worth considering sprinters that have not shown their best form yet this year. I had been backing Arnaud Demare for this antepost at shorter prices than he will go off at. His form is awful this year, and I've all but written the bet off. I have no doubt that he is a future winner/contender of this but looking at the typical profile of a winner of this race he is too young anyway at 23.

I'm looking for someone who fits the bill as a top sprinter but who is going under the radar. That man is Andre Griepel. Although he hasn't been on the premises for the sprint yet in any of his attempts in this race, on his day only Cav and possibly Kristoff in this field are as fast. He's team leader for Lotto but what I like about him this year is he seems to have focussed on this race, with a much lighter schedule early season. He has two stage wins in Algarve and in Paris-Nice. 66/1 4 places was available with Spoilsports and I took that. I think he'll get over the Poggio and if he's in the sprint he's second favourite to Cav in my eyes. My second bet is Zdenek Stybar. He's possibly 3rd bullet for Etixx behind Cav and Kwiatowski, but while those two might well be marked men Stybar could win this either from a select group or solo, something that certainly Cav couldn't do. There is just so much to like about him. He is an ultra hard man, he has no issues with bad weather, his bike handling skills are superb. He will definitely get over the climbs and he's bang in form having just won Strade Bianchi. The only question is whether he buries himself for his two team leaders but I'll take a chance on him at 50/1. My third pick is Ben Swift. I have taken 50/1 4 places. He's team leader for Sky, he has proven he can do the distance, climbs and get in the final sprint. He may not quite have the out-and-out speed of the favourites but he has laid his season out for this race and he is a real danger to everyone if he's in a select group at the end.

(Demare 33/1)
Griepel 66/1 4 places
Stybar 50/1
Swift 50/1 4 places

Good luck all.

John Degenkolb for me. Was going like the winner last year until a late puncture. Went and won Gent V after to show how good his form was. This race is tailor made for him

Anyone backing SAGAN wants their head tested until he proves he has what he takes to deliver. He knows how to lose alright

Be interesting to see if the wider road but shorter run in after the Poggio means that lead out trains will be more important this year.

Again, Peter Sagan's versatility cannot be ignored, the Via Roma finish brings in the outright sprinters by way of the “classic” finish, but it also brings the Poggio closer to the finish, making a breakaway that little more likely of succeeding. Sagan has shown he can match it with the sprinters, or match the puncheurs with an attack up the Poggio. For all the hype he always generates around the classics, he is in this race this year with a crack outfit. No doubt whatsoever, and that is what really brings him into calculations. Last year, on the Cipressa, Sagan was following lone teammate DeMarchi when Nibali decided to launch his attack. This year, I would very-much expect that he has a minimum of three riders with him by that stage of the race, if not one more on that total, which gives him tactical options other riders can only dream about, although as Clay rightly reminds us, last year Sagan proved to be a tactical novice when among the race-wining moves in the classics. Nevertheless, this season he finally nabbed his first victory in the penultimate stage 6 of Tirreno-Adriatico covering 210kms in inclement conditions. Appears to be coming into this at the right time. One of the main contenders. 11/2 (various). WIN ONLY. **.

In 2013, the man they call Yogi, because of his bear-like strength, was included in SKY's MSR list in order to work for Geraint Thomas. And, Ian Stannard did - very-much - work for Thomas in cold and wet conditions, however when Thomas crashed out of the race Stannard became a free agent, and with this new-found freedom he attacked some 2kms from the finish, but just couldn't hang on because of the effort he had put in throughout the day, chasing down the break. Stannard nevertheless hung on for 6th place and proved he was a legitimate classics rider, although the distance of that year's MSR edition was only 245kms. This season he didn't really do much prior to his superlative OHN defence, but he did have a good training ride in Tirreno-Adriatico, last start, and should still have kept most of his form. I've watched OHN a number of times now and I cannot remember Yogi looking so beefy and sitting on the bike so powerfully, almost like a track sprinter. But more than that, he appears to have adopted the powerful and heroic style of Spartacus on the bike; and now coming into his prime, I think we may be seeing Stannard becoming a first-rate classics rider. Yes, Yogi may be in the race this year as a super-domestique for Ben Swift after Swift's podium finish last year, however with cold and wet weather again expected along the route, the indefatigable Ian Stannard becomes a very interesting proposition. May require some luck in running. Not to be discounted lightly. Very good value at 125/1 (various). E/W. *.

Heinrich Haussler appeared destined to become a big name rider on the back of his 2009 season's results, which read -- OHN 9th. KBK 12th. MSR 2nd over 298kms. DDV 4th. E3 16th. Flanders 2nd. Roubaix 6th. TdF stage 13 win. However, he experienced a nagging knee injury, followed by what he described recently as “ups and downs, up and downs, coming back, building up, getting down, building up”. Nevertheless, he put all that behind him straight-out-of-the-boxes when he won the Australian National Road Race in a workmanlike fashion. In addition, his confident, weaving ride in the stage 1 finale of Paris-Nice to finish in 4th place, appeared like it might act as a real confidence boost to his sprinting credentials this year. Has claims. 80/1 (various) E/W. Should be 200/1. 1/4*.

Kris Boeckmans. His best finish here was in 2012 when he finished in 50th place. Appears to be riding in very good form, and whilst he may in a team with stronger fancied riders, he is giving some indication that he may be amongst the race-winning moves. Has small claims. 80/1 WIN ONLY. Should be 500/1. 1/8*.

Good luck to all,
SP

I would be very surprised if there's any significant trains involved MC, a Monument with a "classic" finale is unlikely to provide that type of organized sprint finish, if it is a sprint finish. More likely, we'll get a proper bar-room brawl where anything goes and most are in it for themselves. I believe RCS Sport race organisers, by including the Via Roma, have gone back to the Pompeiana drawing board, and figured they can manufacture the "classic" selection for the race this way. We'll see. Undoubtedly though, we'll get suffering and heroics in very tough conditions.

Hey HB, thanks for sharing your suggestions -- are you not concerned by Bling's lack of racing?: 1136.8 km in 8 race days, strictly coming from Paris-Nice, and some of those days were cruising speed. Not attempting to discount his chances, since luck is such a major factor and influences the dynamics of the race, but I wonder if you think he is as sharp as he would be after a decent block of hard racing? SP

I've been looking into backing another couple for tomorrow but I just cannot make my mind up. The shortening of the line to the Poggio has made this year's race even more difficult to judge.

BMC should be making of the race though with their strong team and should be the deciding factor in how many sprinters are left over the top.

I do think one of Phil or GVA will go over the top of Poggio with an Etixx rider but after that my heads fried, the more you try to think of possible scenarios the more difficult it gets...

Should be fun though.

Stannard for me with PP at 100s on Friday, e/w. GL.

GVA seem's in recent years to have nearly given up allowing himself a fair chance in reduced sprints. So often he has attacked once, twice or more from small groups then been forced to open his sprint with heavy legs.

I really like his attacking riding but I do wonder if he would have won more if he had shown a little bit more faith in his sprint, his win at Tirreno reminded us he has a great kick.

And yes I do remember Stannard beating him at last year's Omloop in case anyone is going to mention it 

260 km remaining The advantage of the break is now out to 9min 50 secs

I've nicked this from cyclingnews.com: The break's lead continues to rise through the opening hour of racing. As they approach Pavia, their advantage is already touching almost ten minutes. 11 minutes, incidentally, was the maximum lead built up on the last occasion that the early break made it all the way to the finish in San Remo. In 1982, a group of 13 broke clear in the streets of Milan, and Marc Gomez was the last man standing, after he dropped Alain Bondue on the way down the Poggio. A disappointed Moreno Argentin pipped Francesco Moser in the sprint for third after the group of favourites left their chase effort too late. Slim chance of a repeat in the radio earpiece era, mind.