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*((((( ''LE TOUR'' de France 2015)))))*
*((((( ''LE TOUR'' de France 2015)))))*
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Replies: 130
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I thought time bonuses were only up to the first rest day, are they available for every stage? Will consult the road book.
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Nope, only the next seven stages as I've stated mate.
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From the website
They had disappeared since 2008. Bonus seconds will again be awarded at the finishes of the 2nd to the 8th stage. The bonuses will be of 10, 6 and 4 seconds for the first three of each of these stages. |
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Oh sorry, I misunderstood you. I thought you were saying Quintana could take advantage of time bonuses. You do clearly say the next seven stages.
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Just looking at the weather forecast for Zeeland. It looks like there won't be the predicted wind. 6mph is predicted for 3pm tomorrow, and it will also be hot. However, the summary is for scattered thunderstorms and the chance of rain is about 50% in the mid-afternoon.
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There are conflicting statements about the bonus seconds. Maybe ASO had a change of heart. The official rules & regs (which you can download) say nothing about bonuses only being in play up till a certain point in the race and I'm inclined to go with that. Also Voeckler seems to believe this to be the case since he is moaning about the bonus secs making it less likely for breaks to survive and the stages he would be targeting would be in the second half of the race
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Pretty sure the website is correct that 2-8 carry 10, 6, 2 seconds bonus. Good idea imo, make the first few stages even more keenly contested. Don't think the intermediates carry time bonuses.
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Official regs
http://www.letour.com/le-tour/2015/docs/TDF15_Reglement-BD.pdf Always useful for knowing which stages have which points, time limits, 3 km rule in play etc |
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You need a whole year to get ready for the tour? What about stage 6 at the Dauphine when he put in a big attack from a strong breakaway on the final climb and cleared out on Valverde, Costa and Gallopin (he looked like he was going for it to me) he had a big gap and looked home only for Costa to catch and pass him for a nice stage win. Was it part of his training to sit up and give Costa the stage win? I agree his whole year revolves around the tour, I just cant see what benefit he gains by being so bad for the rest of the year. He has no form all year, then turns up to the Dauphine only a month before the Tour and is in "training mode", then rocks up to the Tour and he is flying. I'm not surprised though to see him peaking for the tour.
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After-all he rides for Astana and his team boss is Vino.
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I remember reading somewhere that they changed the bonus seconds from being available on stages 1-8 to all mass start stages.
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ARTICLE
26 Bonuses Time bonuses are awarded at all of road stage finishes that is to say with the exception of the individual and team time trial stages. They are 10, 6 and 4 seconds to the first three riders to finish. |
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Really really tough stage to call tomorrow. No bet is a fine play here. The weather doesn't look too bad but I reckon the pace they'll be going on a road of limited width the wind will only have to blow a little bit to smash the peloton to pieces near the end.
I reckon if the weather plays no part at all then this is really only between Cav and Greipel, merely on their flat out speed and the strength of their trains. Only Giant have a comparable train and Degenkolb simply doesn't have the speed on a true flat sprint. Kristoff has a good train but not the best. He will rely on being able to maintain his sprint. Kristoff is definitely capable of finishing in the top 2 or 3 but probably can't win these stages if Cavendish and Greipel trains work and they are on form. Bouhanni has the speed but probably not the train or fitness. Coquard and Demare are just picking up pieces as they don't have teams to compete. Sagan is the interesting one. He doesn't have the speed to beat Cav, Greipel, Bouhanni or even Kristoff but he is an absolute master at following the right wheel, as he showed when he got into Kittel's slipstream so many times last year. If the wind blows however, all bets are off. We could end up with a front rank of GC guys only if echelons form, although you'd have to expect Sagan and Cavendish to be in there. Wind blowing or not, I expect Spartacus to make a play for the jersey today, and I'm getting him on board at 125/1. With no wind I would expect Cav, Greipel & Kristoff to fight it out, and Cav or Greipel to win. The three of them are the fastest and have the best form. If Cav is going to win the green jersey today is a very important stage. I think Cav wins but the price isn't great. |
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Very good analysis of stage 2 mc, excellent post, not a lot left to say really. The last 40km are right on the water (in Holland!) and the finish is literally in the ocean. Weather not being a factor would be a little suprising. Im starting to think Lotto-Soudal have the best train but I still think Cav is more foolproof than Greipel in the bunch sprints. Of the 5 flat super sprint stages I think this might be Kristoff's best chance to beat Cav and Greipel although he would probably prefer a few more km's in the stage. I'll probably be on Kristoff and hope we get a gust or two and a bit of rain wouldn't hurt. Also watch out for LottoNL-Jumbo pushing to create echelons, GC riders will need to be attentive.
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Nice drift on Quintana -- the analysis remains unchanged though, since there are stages remaining which may continue to give him trouble, and therefore there's no point bringing him back from red just yet as he is likely to lose even more time. Not laying anymore though as I think Nibali may be a reasonable price to back now and therefore the better trading value. Just looking ahead and he's going to treat the stage after next -- the cobbles stage -- as a real opportunity to gain some time back on his rivals. At +1.21 back on Froome, he will go on the attack on the cobbles with his confidence up from last year's performance, in order to worry the other riders into making mistakes, and him gaining some time back on them, especially with the bonuses on offer on the line. Not sure how sensitive the market is going to be to his attacks in that stage, probably not very, more likely he'll actually need to open a big gap, or gain a chunk of time in the finish, and it's obviously reliant on him not finding trouble up the Mur de Huy tomorrow, but it's a small if worthy project at that price on here, I believe.
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Tomorrow's stage will see more damage to the hopes of some imo. Fingers crossed everyone finishes ok, but I can't see it. It will be worse than Fleche Wallonne imo and there were several race-ending crashes in that. Knowing the course is a big, big help tomorrow.
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Hey guys! I missed the first 2 days (on vacations) and i can see a lot have happened!
I have layed Quintana and backed Nibali pre Tour, so isnt the worst for me. I can see Quintana loosing even more time before we hit the big climbs. Looking forward to today's stage, could be a cracker! |
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Quintana 1'56'' down on Froome and he is the same price he was before the start of the race
Nibali 1'38'' down on Froome and is a slight drifter, 7.0 out to 8.0 Contador only 36'' down on Froome and has drifted the most out of the big 4, out to 9.0 If Quintana doesn't lose any time on the cobbles tomorrow he could come into favouritism. Joking of course Also prices for the TTT on stage 9 Sky out to 14/1 Astana 12/1 Tinkoff-Saxo 66/1 (may have lost a rider today) Movistar 5/1 |
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marychain1 02 Jul 15 08:08
I was thinking Spartacus to wear yellow at 6/1. He's an outside chance to get it first up, but he's unlikely to lose time on Stage 2 if the winds blow, and if the group is very reduced could even pick up bonus seconds sprinting. I nailed that one anyway, and got 7s too. |
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...It's not like it's for pennies either, there are substantial sums being traded here.
Resistance on Quintana is based on how hard he is likely going to attack in the mountains now that he is so significantly behind. He is not going to have any option but to attack and a motivated Quintana, the most natural climber in the peloton by far, is going to attract some resistance from the market, I believe. So even though he is behind by the biggest margin, he is also the one rider with the potential to make the biggest gaps in the mountains, and not many want to be on the wrong side of him once the battles in the mountains begin since there is so much time to be had. Nibali holds some benefit of the doubt since he is suited by these upcoming stages, but traders are preparing to dump him some more tomorrow if he doesn't repeat his heroics on the cobbles and gets some time back on his rivals, like last year. If his current gap exists by stage 10 than I would expect Nibali to have had his price blown right out, since the general understanding is he wouldn't be a force in the mountains against his rivals. Contador seemed to have been easily dispensed with by Froome on the Mur de Huy today, and given the understanding that he may be tired by the third week by having run and won the Giro, such a failure has obviously spooked some and they've positively dumped him. |
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...Basically it tells the story of what is likely going to happen and not necessarily what the situation is now. Narrative is taking dominance over current situation, which is not that surprising since a futures market is influenced by possible and likely outcomes away in the distance.
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I'm guessing the market is still expecting Nibali to make time over Froome and Quintana tomorrow. If he doesnt his price will rocket. I guess the market also thinks Quintana and Nibbles have lost time due to circumstance whereas Bertie has actually shown some weakness in the legs today. I'm not convinced a climb of that nature means too much though.
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Good point fellas. So by this logic, on stage 4 the market expects Nibali to take time on Quintana and Froome. Quintana to not lose any time to Froome. Contador to crash on the cobbles or start looking tired soon thereafter. The only thing I will say is that sometimes the current situation can dictate how the narrative actually goes (kind of like your Froome planting the seed of doubt comment from earlier sp). With the lead Froome has he can ride a bit more defensively with less stress, whatever the current situation is a lead is still a lead under any circumstance. We shall see I guess. I just thought Froome having a 2 minute lead on Quintana would warrant a bit more of a drift on Quintana's price.
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I think the market (pre-race) judging the relative rivals strengths in the mountains would have expected the special GC (SP's term) to look like this at this stage, assuming all GCs have stayed upright.
Nibali Contador -1 Froome -1.30 Quintana -2. So now Nibali should be huge, Contador & Quintana should be about where they started and Froome should have shortened considerably. If we look at the market now that's about what's happened. Contador is slightly bigger (I assume the market thinks he has shown some weakness) and Nibali maybe isnt as big now as I'd have expected (does the market think he's been strong but unlucky?) For me, my GC book looks awful. Quintana has lost time but not drifted and Froome is odds on, the riders id backed - Martin, Nibali, Valverde, Majka - have not started well. To be fair Majka and Valverde were micro stakes hopeful "Plan B" punts if team leaders crashed out early but its unlikely my main GC hope Nibali will outgun his rivals in the mountains unless he engages full motorbike mode or cracks people on descents. Bertie/field may be my best hope now but we'll see... Is anyone on TJ? He's started well. |
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I was thinking of backing TJ last night but was worried about today so held off. So I am slightly surprised he hasn't shortened again tonight so have added an ew bet on him at 20/1. I was looking for someone at a bigger price to place at the start off the tour, as had my doubts about Nibali and Contador then, and I did look at TJ then but went with Purito (who has lost plenty of time but i think will be very strong in the final week).
It looks very much like TJ and Froome have just carried on from where they were at the Dauphine, they were by far the strongest 2 there, so came here as the form riders and are looking that here too. It could be that others will ride themselves in to form but i'm not so sure, starting to think that they could be the 2 to fight it out all tour?? |
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You could be right, although I would expect Nibali to be strong in the mountains and for Quintana to at least threaten to make time back.
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Yeah but mc, you say at this stage the market expected
Nibali Contador +1:00 Froome +1:30 Quintana +2:00 Which I agree with. I understand the price drift on Nibali which you explained well. We know he will keep attacking at every opportunity though. Quintana though isn't 30 seconds behind Froome, he is 2 minutes behind him. Or, he isn't 2min behind Nibali, he is 2min behind Froome. In other words he has lost more time than anticipated to the other rider who was perceived to be one of the top 2 climbers in the race(and prepost favourite). Quintana's price is still the same price as he was before the race, lots of faith in the Colombian. As for Contador, I think he and Tinkoff would be quite happy with the current situation. Only 36sec down on Froome and 1:02 up on Nibali and 1:20 up on Quintana. I concede he has looked in a bit of difficulty at times but a finish on the Mur de Huy and a cobbles stage might not be the best indicator of whats to come in the mountains. I'm a little bit surprised by the size of his price drift but he does have the giro in his legs I guess and has lost more time to Froome than anticipated. As for TJVG he is riding a good race at the moment and his team is doing a good job. I still have that memory of him losing to Riblon (no mug) on the Alp D'Huez stage in the 2013 TdF. A much improved rider now though, coming into the race with good form although we've had no mountain tests yet. I do expect BMC to do a very good TTT on stage 9. If I was pricng It up I would have Froome 1.8 Quintana 4.5 Contador 8 Nibali 12 Lots of crosswind still to come and all the climbing still to do. Froome is in a good position and is probably a better all-round bike rider than people give him credit for. He does look super lean at the moment so maybe his rivals will hope for a bad day from him later in the 3rd week. We still have a good race on our hands. |
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I agree with that. If I wasn't red on Quintana already I would lay him here. Also I'd lay Nibali if it wasnt effectively redding out.
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Paolini positive - cocaine (?!)
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https://youtu.be/7raIxrzodt4
for those of you that havent seen this, it shows the mayhem of a crash and the cries of riders in real pain. Quite an eye opener. Makes you appreciate more what the riders actually go through |
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BACKED Nairo Quintana 11/4.....should be fun to watch in week 3. A BIG Thank You marychain1 for on all your excellent & detailed inputs on here.
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A bit of a mixed bag for Etixx in the first week. 3 stage wins with two being a little unexpected
 and Cav seemingly struggling then bouncing back in style. Two yellow jersey's then the yellow jersey holder crashing out. Then they've also managed to keep Uran safe as he sits nicely on the GC only 34sec behind Froome and in the hunt for a podium in Paris. Better than most. |
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Paolini positive is an odd one.
I suspect some sort of contamination as it doesn't really make sense. Cyclists and cocaine have mixed for years but surely he wouldn't have been silly enough to take it pre/mid race. |
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The metabolite he has been popped for can apparently stay in the system for 10-15 days so may have been pre-race
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ffs wish I got 14/1 about Sky for the TTT. Into 4/1 now. Not super keen at that price as I'm not sure about the form of some of their riders. Froome and Thomas are the only ones who look really good, maybe the others have been saving some energy or are expecting to produce in the mountains.
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terrible news about Ivan Basso, not good news for Contador either. Having had a similar problem earlier this year lets hope they have caught it in time
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Yes terribly sad news For Basso hopefully he will make a quick and full recovery. It's also obviously a blow for Contador to lose one of his key men but it may well work to provide him with extra motivation. He was very close to Basso and has already spoke of getting the yellow jersey in Paris for Basso to be there.
As we now head to the mountains and the first really big tests of this tour, I've decided to have another look at the kom competition. At the outset I backed Froome 10/1 and Pinot 22/1, both are now much shorter! I didn't really anticipate Froome would be leading now and be so far ahead of the likes of Quintana and Nibali, as it is he doesn't need to win stages or attack yet. He has talked of riding defensively in the Pyrennees to maintain his position. So it would now seem unlikely he will win the kom competition. Quintana is obviously rightly the favourite and simply has to attack but is too short a price for me. Pinot on the other hand is now out of the gc picture and so could well really target this now, I just doubt whether he has the form or fitness or right frame of mind after what he has been through so far?? After the first week of racing we now have several decent climbers who have dropped right out of gc contention, and so may well turn the attentions to winning the kom jersey. The likes of Pinot, Bardet, Rolland, Martin, Hesjedal, Costa, etc could all now target this but the riders i'm most interested in are the Yates brothers. They have dropped right out of the gc picture, and OGE have had such a terrible first week they will surely be looking to get something out of the tour. They are both capable climbers, will be allowed toget in breakaways or attack out oof the peleton, as no one will see them as a danger anymore. Of the two i slightly favour Simon Yates, have backed him ew at 50/1 and had a samller bet on Adam at the same price. |
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Watched that Froome video that was released with his power numbers last night. There's nothing dodgy but the big minus for Froome is that if I was a Movistar/Tinkoff/Astana DS I'd have a fair idea when Froome is likely to be at his max. At least where Froome 2013 would likely to be at his max.
May be a big factor in the final week. |
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Confused about the hacking thing. Didnt they release the Ventoux data to a newspaper? How is that hacking?
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2013/jul/18/team-sky-chris-froome-data |