TdF Stage 18.

Nibali has been brilliant ,he would have taken some beating even with with Bertie and Froome in .. Top class performance

Ridiculous short price on Nibali, even if i can see him winning the stage. I think Astana will allow a long break away, Katusha wont chase like today and the stage win could go to someone like Voeckler, Trofimov, Serpa or even Majka/Rodriguez if they go for the polka.

I would like to thank you personally sp , on the time you have taken to post your views on each stage .
I am no expert ,but have followed cycling for many years, but your views right or wrong are much appreciated.
Cheers

Granddad cycling rule. Lay the leader to win the last mountain stage. As i mentioned before in another thread there is an unwritten rule that the leader doesnt go for the stage win. This time i am not so sure because i think nibali could have won the last 2 stages if he really wanted so maybe wants to win today. But for those who want to back Nibali, they should wait for inplay because it is higly likely he will be traded much bigger than now.

2,90 its a joke. There will be a break away and the odd will be much higher at some point.

I also backed Rodriguez @90. I think he wont go down without a fight and will try to be in the breakaway.

After watching yesterdays stage, i can see a breakaway win again here. I thought it would come down to a gc fight yesterday but i was wrong and don't see it being any different today. If a break has 4 mins plus at the top of the Tourmalet then i'm pretty sure the winner will come from there. I just dont think any of the teams from the gc riders are strong enough to chase it down, as they will likely be attacking each other on the tourmalet and so will be left with an elite very small peleton with few or no teammates to do the chasing. The only one of them with a real strong team now is probably Valverde but i don't think it is in his interests to drill the peleton and make the Tourmalet a real test. As he is clearly struggling a little right now, and so he will just be content to hold the wheels of his podium rivals and wait for the TT.

So the best play is probably to wait and see who is in the break, and if as i expect there are a lot of strong riders then get involved then. But i have had a few small plays for a start, Nieve 25/1, Thomas 100/1 and Riblon 80/1.
I'm sure Sky will be very active and will more than likely have at least 2 or 3 riders up there, the likes of Nieve, Thomas, Lopez, Kiryienka, etc. If in the break then Nieve will undoubtedly be one of the strngest climbers and looked in decent shape yesterday. Also backed Thomas he has been riding well all tour, seemed to back off very quickly yesterday, so hopefully is saving himself for a crack at this. Though he could just be saving all his energy now for a shot at winning the TT stage, if he isn't involved today i will be backing him for that.
I've been waiting to back Riblon in a big mountain stage, after his impressive exploits on Alpe D'Huez last year, and i think this is maybe the stage he will have targeted this year.

Riblon tried a couple of times, but he just dont have the legs... but the last 2-3 days he took it easy, may be his day today...

Breakaway for me as well. Tinkov/SKY should have men in it, but so short.

I think we might see Konig do something today after slipping a little time yesterday. I don't see him being allowed in a break as Belkin/BMC will chase so a kick on the Tourmalet perhaps?

Gone for Brice & Kruiswijk pre-off. Did think about Trofimov but Katusha's tactics have been awful, so might be burned for J-Rod.

Happy hunting.

Don't think Purito has the legs to be still in contention on the final km

I think a breakaway win is less likely than yesterday - this is an easier stage to control for any team that wants to. A big gap can disappear very quickly from the Tourmalet summit unless the break is very strong (see the 2008 stage).  Plus, although Hautacam isn't the hardest summit finish in the race, it's probably the most prestigeous. I think Movistar / Ag2r will try to test Pinot on the Tourmalet descent which is much more of a test than yesterday.  Nibali will probably win again.  Pinot is probably the only one capable of giving him any trouble if he's still there although Valverde looks a very tempting price given his speed in the final 200m if he can stay in touch

Can we really see two TDF in a row without a Spanish Stage win? Last chance today .....I've backed Nieve and Valverde and all the other Spanish riders in Movistar. Not backing J-Rod as Saxo will have him marked and he doesn't gave the legs

GoBallistic, i dont think AG2R will try somethink, because they are happy as it his. Peraud has the 2nd place in reach if he doesnt lose any time. The same for Valverde. Astana will just control, not push the pace hard...

Think we might see Bardet go solo again off the Tourmalet, there's 20k of sharp descent and very little(if any?) flat before the start of the Hautacam

there is a little flat, around 5-7km

Maybe FDJ will put mens upfront to wait for Pinot and help him on the descent.

Not stage related, but gone for a speculative punt on valverde in the winner without nibali market, in hope he doesn't lose any time to peraud today.

Nieve, Trofimov the best chance if the break stays IMO.

ExpertBoy
Date Joined:    31 Jan 07
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23 Jul 14 23:23 Joined: 31 Jan 07 | Topic/replies: 432 | Blogger: ExpertBoy's blog
Ridiculous short price on Nibali, even if i can see him winning the stage. I think Astana will allow a long break away, Katusha wont chase like today and the stage win could go to someone like Voeckler, Trofimov, Serpa or even Majka/Rodriguez if they go for the polka.

2 of my boys in the break away :)

I liked that Majka got 5 points penalty in the points category ;)
and was it 50 CHF in fine.
Hard for him lol

CJ70 count with Di Marchi and Voeckler also... but yes, in theory Trofimov and Nieve are the strongest

and i also like my friend Tiago Machado, he has been recovery in the last days, yesterday did a very good stage and looks stronger and stronger

And this is gold for Majka, if the breakaway goes, he has the jersey, even if is catched, nibali needs to win and majka needs to be 6th

why is astana pushing so hard?

Because Nibali fancies a win here

hummm to soon to be pushing so hard...

most of nibalis helprider will not be there for long so they could as well keep up the tempo and keep the break in controll for the moment

lets see the first kilometers of the tourmalet...

Nibali @2 is crazy

Interview with Fuglsang this morning suggested they weren't bothered with controlling the race for a stage win. Doesn't look accurate to me.

i cant help laying Nibali at this crazy odds

they have to push it now, and bring the gap to 4-5 min to have a chance. They would need 3-4min to begin the last climb

1,90 this has to be a joke

If Nibali does really want to win today 1.9 could be generous.  It could take an act of God to stop him

im laying this 1,90 it has to trade higher at some point

Chavanel attacking kadri and nieve chasing

VDB gone again. Not sure what's happened to him this year, so badly out of form.

it really depends how they will make the descent... if they increase this gap on the descent, they have everything to begin the last climb with a good lead. Astana seems to be taking it easier now with that conversations between nibali and westra

lol and i keep laying this ridiculous low odd... with no attacks they will begin the last climb with 4-5 minutes. That has to be enough.

Vincenzo Nibali    1.90    €2500.00    €2250.00

Hope the race doesnt get crazy on the descent

valverde spoiling this for the break away...

Valverde looks like he could scupper the break.

Well its about time he done something ,2 riders from movi up ahead as well

Ten Dam has come off or had a mechanical.

Valverde break over. Pointless and has just killed the breakaway.

now they will take it easier probably

or not. Astana riding hard

Expertboy. i fear for you. Shark looking hungry.

and what about majka?

dont feel for me, i know when to get out... im already laying again ;)

what's the Portuguese for 'new underpants required'?

just last 15 days:  Ciclismo: €18,602.31

I think this is enough to some idiots be quiet no?

No need to resort to abuse. I was just offering my opinion and i am not an idiot. Stage 13 into Chamrousse seems quite relevant in my book.

Figures are all relevant to your stakes so posting them is completely pointless.

Nibali down to 1.4. That's a lay for me.

Very uncouth to post stakes anyway.  Who exactly are you trying to impress 'Expert'?

Nibali backers owe Horner a beer.

Deja vu

Jeezus.. Nibali goes with Papa Horner with 10k to go.

it would be great to see this nibali against froome and contador

Wow!

Agreed we was robbed of the best Tour ever.

How funny was that

If Nibali can keep this up he's going to smash every record on the Hautacam.

Layed Nibali again at 1.08

These double points are playing havoc with Liggett's brain...

Far from ideal when the time gap is shown at 29" with 3.5k to go

That was quite simply an outstanding ride by a man completely at the top of his game.

Nibs diffo gear

Think that might have been the longest Valverde has had his nose in the wind in his entire  career.

Cheers mugptr, would've liked to have got a run-on with some successful bets at ante-post, but with the two favourites going out so early, I really feel that it altered much of the strategy and tactics of the other teams, and things that looked like they should've happened, didn't. As a result, ante-post bank didn't actually work out, but I hope that some of my understandings and information set the right tone for some successful IR plays. It's been quite a strange Tour, what with the two favs going out and the Alps not really playing a big part, but it's always a lot of fun and I hope you enjoyed the race and finished ahead.

Expected better from Valverde on this stage, when he went on the descent of the Tourmalet I thought here we go, telegraph MOV move going on, but clearly the form I thought he might find by the time he reached the Pyrenees never developed, this last chance to at least prove something to himself, the team, and his fans was a pretty bad failure when he popped so badly that it catapulted him from 2nd to 4th on GC, and overall he has been quite disappointing. Good attempt by Nieve, at least he tried for SKY. Very impressive riding from Majka again, and Pinot improving with every ride it seems, but Nibali had to show his class and did. The Shark moniker really suits him when he goes on the hunt like that.  SP

The Wiggins-led English team have just been blown out of the Velodrome by the mighty, reigning world champion Aussie team! Go Aussie!

Enjoyed Nibali shoving it up the layers....well done backers, of which I am one.......before the Tour started that is.
He was too short to back in case he let someone else win,but equally imo he was dangerous to lay, as this stage if he wanted it he was the only winner.

What was his best price to back IR ???

The fluctuation never came like I thought it might, the peloton always had the break under control, and as such  Nibali never improved much on his SP price, but I believe 2/1 was around briefly. SP