TdF Stage 17.

After the longest road stage of the Tour this year comes the shortest road stage, with Stage 17 from Saint-Gaudens to Saint-Lary Pla d’Adet covering a total of only 125kms, nearly half-the-distance of the previous stage.

Again, the riders begin climbing from the very beginning of the day, and the elevation rises continuously throughout the stage with initially three cat.1 climbs, of which the middle one is legendary. The cold de Peyresourde is 13.2kms long at 7% gradient, and the top reaches 1,569m. Unlike in recent past stages of the Tour which involved the col de Peyresourde as part of the parcours, this stage does not finish with a descent, but rather it is a mountaintop finish. Which makes this stage more like the 2012 Tour stage 17, when Valverde attacked from a large long-range breakaway group to salvage something for MOV that year, with his solo 35km ride to victory.

This stage looks much tougher than the previous on account of the cat.H climb to an elevation of 1,654m on Saint-Lary Pla d’Adet being the finish. At 10.2kms long and with a gradient of 8.3% it is more difficult by the early parts than by the final parts, and a point at 3kms to go looks like an ideal staging ground for a late attack by one of the principals, and it is therefore more likely to suit The Shark the best, should he be within striking distance of his fourth stage win.

Again, all will depend on who is in the long-range breakaway and the dynamics of that group. I think the breakaway is less likely to win than the previous stage as the GC fight for the podium and the top-10 is intensifying on account of the gaps getting closer, and it may be the case that under the right circumstances we find that multiple teams offer riders to work on the front of the peloton with AST, in order to keep the breakaway in much closer order. If that is the case than I believe Nibali might want to confirm his unbeatable presence in this race with another strong final climb ride to the finish for the stage win. 5/1 will be value if it gets there, and it should, but it is worth remembering that when he won in stage 13 his price IR was far superior to the 3/1 at SP. Riding strongly. May pay to keep safe.

Rafal Majka Enjoyed an easy day on the saddle when he rolled into the finish with the second of the three main SAG wagons, at +24mins. With TCS’s win with Rogers, it may be the case that their plan was to save Majka for an attempt to win here, however he may be getting tired after riding the Giro and he is just too short at ante-post for even a small bet, since he commands an early position as second favourite at 4/1 with PP. Won’t surprise with a strong performance. Watch closely.

No bets for me at ante-post, but may find a late mail special, later.

Good luck to all,
SP