TdF Stage 13.

After just 10kms of riding from the start in Saint-Etienne to begin the 198km stage 13 to the ski resort of Chamrousse, the riders will begin the cat.3 ascent of the Col de la Croix de Montvieux, where the long-range break will look to make their attack, if not earlier. Hills follow soon after for about a 110kms, the majority of the route, before the riders come upon the two main climbs of the day.

This stage is regarded as an Alps stage, however it is technically the Rhone-Alpes, so the climbs are not famous, and the first cat.1 to the Col de Palaquit rises to an elevation of a mere 1,154m before a long descent begins into Grenoble. Then, the main climb of the day appears and this is where the action should take place, on the cat.H Montee de Chamrousse, a long 18.2 km climb at 7.3% gradient, which will top-out at 1,730m, a proper elevation.

Clearly, the main race should be the GC race, and whilst the breakaway may confuse picking the stage winner IR, since the time gaps on climbs can be quite chaotically delivered -- the sheer length of the final climb will likely empty any long-range mountain breakaway specialists of their energy reserves, and therefore clear the stage for a GC selection which becomes a GC fight for stage glory. And I think on that basis, the winner might come from the GC riders.

The likely GC winner will involve the likely GC questions still remaining in the face of Nibali’s stranglehold on the race. Will The Shark want to be remembered as winning the Tour in the year where the two favourites abandoned the race, in so far as whispers exist on his true claims? Or will he want to be remembered as winning the Tour by winning stages, followed by then winning mountain stages and destroying those GC riders still remaining? Essentially winning the Tour in such commanding fashion that perhaps initially valid comparisons between the hypothetical scenarios of Froome and Bertie remaining in the race and their relevant influences -- to that of no doubts existing about the strength of his form, which was first evidenced in stage 2 and which he continued to improve in subsequent stages?

This stage is one where this next step is required to establish Nibali’s claim to a crushing win in the Tour, and I expect him to come out all guns blazing at the appropriate time, and that will likely be late on, since he has nothing to lose by waiting and watching but risks losing energy if attacking too early.

Richie Porte will be suited by the longer climb here and therefore it might not be surprising to see him ride in a more forward position, which might get him closer to the stage victory, however The Shark is in hunting waters now, and I expect him to feast on all claims with a vicious attack from an AST train doing most, if not all, of the heavy lifting. Additionally, I think there is less likelihood of the peloton being put to sleep by AST on the front for much of the stage, and the breakaway gap growing to a big margin, since the other GC teams must ride hard to put pressure on AST/Nibali. Riding defensively will only secure Nibali's claim, and the remaining GC riders will look weaker in comparison.

***Vincenzo Nibali. Riding very strongly. Rated highly. Go close. 3/1 with (PP) at SP is a little short on a WIN ONLY basis. 4/1 would be more reasonable. Already trading higher.

*Richie Porte. 16/1 E/W (sb). Suited by the conditions. Will make presence felt. Worthy of consideration as a saver.   

Good luck to all,
SP