TdF Stage 12.

With this stage 12 from Bourg-en-Bresse to Saint-Etienne, covering 186kms, the Tour moves away from the Alps on a hilly stage, but does not move away from a day of light climbing with four categorized climbs, the last of which comes with about a 14km descent into an 8km slight incline run for the finish line.

Will be interesting to see if OGE have a much stronger presence in driving the pace on the front, in pursuit of what will likely be a small, long-range breakaway? This stage suits Gerrans more than the previous on account of the finale.

I think the stage looks quite similar and the race might consequently be quite similar to what we saw in stage 11, in so far as it might be relatively close between the breakaway and select group involved in what looks like a much more difficult finale, however. Perhaps more prudent to wait for IR plays, nevertheless some of these prices are never seen again, so some riders to get started with are:

**Tony Gallopin The last non-climber rider representing France at the Tour, to go on and get a second win in the race was over-rated hardman Sylvain Chavanel, when he won as a breakaway in both stage 2 and stage 7 of the 2010 Tour. You would have to probably go back to the golden years to find a French rider doing it in consecutive stages, though. Obviously consecutive wins are more common in the flat bunch sprints, with the Gorilla doing it in 2012 in stages 4 and 5. Nevertheless, Gallopin is a fine – plus - mix of Chavanel and Gilbert, and the way he is riding there is a lot to suggest he might be capable of winning again here, and in so doing become a very big story in France in a year where it looks like an Italian will win on GC. 66/1 (PP) E/W. Should be 80/1. Interesting prospects. Keep safe.

*Greg Van Avermaet I thought he might be poorly placed in the previous stage into Oyonnax after having a difficult rest day, however his 7th place finish in the stage when charging for the line late from the select group, shows that his condition is still very good. That he can win from the break or selection is a big advantage. Opened as an 80/1 shot with PP, and was immediately slashed to 33/1. 40/1 E/W (BW). Should be 66/1. Some value. Likely to figure in the finish. Worthy of close consideration.

*Geraint Thomas Won the Tour of Bavaria with a winning performance in the ITT. Had a very good cobbled classics campaign with two top-10s in PR and Flanders, and a podium in E3 for starters. Came closest to a Tour stage win when finished 2nd in the pave stage of the 2010 edition, but he is having a much better season, since he is a completely different rider now, and is going along quite consistently here with an impressive last stage performance to make the selection and finish in 19th place out of 34 riders, not including Gallopin. Looks comfortable amongst this company and stage characteristics may suit him even better here. Do not discount lightly. 150/1 E/W (various).

Good luck to all,
SP