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15 Jul 14
17:47
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11 Jul 11
The first stage after the rest day, and it is the first time the Tour will finish in the town of Oyonnax. The 188km stage 11 begins over rolling terrain, before hills become mountains, and where in the final third of the race the riders will have to overcome four categorized climbs and about a 15km descent into the finish.
In 2013, stage 2 of the Crit Dauphine covered 191kms from Chatel, essentially from a different direction to today’s start town of Besancon, and therefore whilst none of the climbs will be repeated on this occasion, the stage profile actually looks quite similar. In the Crit Dauphine stage Viviani got his first win of the season from a splintering bunch sprint, with Meersman and Gallopin rounding out the podium. Reportedly, Rein Taaramae looked like winning when he took some chances on the descent, but was found out by the peloton, minus most of the sprinters who failed to make the final climb, within the final 2kms.
I believe that whilst the climbs may be a little easier here, there will be much more motivation for breakaways to try their hand for stage glory, and if the long-range break is brought back prior to the final climb, then we may see a counter attack between the puncheurs and even strong sprinters such as Sagan. In any event I believe a breakaway is likely to win, the characteristics of the stage suggests a fast finish similar to when Trentin won into Nancy of stage 7. Since this is a much shorter distance to that stage, non-puncheurs might get a closer look at the win for this stage than some Books realize.
***Sep Vanmarcke is not a puncheur but a cobbled classics specialist, nevertheless he has come out to say how much he has enjoyed the past few mountain stages. He has had three top-10 results in the Tour, but more importantly one of those was in the Nancy finish when he beat fellow countryman GVA into 9th place. In addition to making the twenty-seven man selection over the cat.4 Boufflers climb then, it is noteworthy that Kristoff didn’t, yet the reigning MSR winner is five times shorter in the market than the tough-as-nails Belgian. Likely to make presence felt. Treat warily. Good value. 100/1 E/W (various).
**Rui Costa Hasn’t as yet confirmed his Swiss win form, and may respond well after the rest day. I have had him on my list as a stage winner in this year’s race from the beginning, but haven't been confident until now. Will likely give an honest account of himself if finds luck in running. Riding very consistently. Interesting prospects. Very good value. 125/1 E/W (b365). 100/1 okay.
*Leopold Konig Still developing 26yo rider from Czech Rep. Making his Tour debut. Came onto the scene with an impressive 9th place finish in the 2013 Vuelta when on GT debut, particularly when winning the mountain-top finish of stage 8 into Estepona Alto de Penas Blancas. TNE are after stage wins, we saw that with Machado, and they will give the opportunity to the rider who feels strongest. Coming into this at the right time. 150/1 E/W (various).
*Michael Rogers has the advantage of going long-range on this stage now that TSC have lost Bertie and will be after stage wins in order to get something of value out of this Tour for themselves. He opened-up at 66/1 with one early Book and within a few minutes was trimmed into 50/1, before finally now coming to rest at 33/1 with that same Book. Like Viviani in the 2013 stage 2 of the Crit Dauphine he has ridden the Giro, and whilst his condition isn’t superlative, he has the skills and talent to win this stage should his legs feel good. May be one to keep safe. 50/1 E/W (various). Should be 66/1.
Good luck to all,
SP
In 2013, stage 2 of the Crit Dauphine covered 191kms from Chatel, essentially from a different direction to today’s start town of Besancon, and therefore whilst none of the climbs will be repeated on this occasion, the stage profile actually looks quite similar. In the Crit Dauphine stage Viviani got his first win of the season from a splintering bunch sprint, with Meersman and Gallopin rounding out the podium. Reportedly, Rein Taaramae looked like winning when he took some chances on the descent, but was found out by the peloton, minus most of the sprinters who failed to make the final climb, within the final 2kms.
I believe that whilst the climbs may be a little easier here, there will be much more motivation for breakaways to try their hand for stage glory, and if the long-range break is brought back prior to the final climb, then we may see a counter attack between the puncheurs and even strong sprinters such as Sagan. In any event I believe a breakaway is likely to win, the characteristics of the stage suggests a fast finish similar to when Trentin won into Nancy of stage 7. Since this is a much shorter distance to that stage, non-puncheurs might get a closer look at the win for this stage than some Books realize.
***Sep Vanmarcke is not a puncheur but a cobbled classics specialist, nevertheless he has come out to say how much he has enjoyed the past few mountain stages. He has had three top-10 results in the Tour, but more importantly one of those was in the Nancy finish when he beat fellow countryman GVA into 9th place. In addition to making the twenty-seven man selection over the cat.4 Boufflers climb then, it is noteworthy that Kristoff didn’t, yet the reigning MSR winner is five times shorter in the market than the tough-as-nails Belgian. Likely to make presence felt. Treat warily. Good value. 100/1 E/W (various).
**Rui Costa Hasn’t as yet confirmed his Swiss win form, and may respond well after the rest day. I have had him on my list as a stage winner in this year’s race from the beginning, but haven't been confident until now. Will likely give an honest account of himself if finds luck in running. Riding very consistently. Interesting prospects. Very good value. 125/1 E/W (b365). 100/1 okay.
*Leopold Konig Still developing 26yo rider from Czech Rep. Making his Tour debut. Came onto the scene with an impressive 9th place finish in the 2013 Vuelta when on GT debut, particularly when winning the mountain-top finish of stage 8 into Estepona Alto de Penas Blancas. TNE are after stage wins, we saw that with Machado, and they will give the opportunity to the rider who feels strongest. Coming into this at the right time. 150/1 E/W (various).
*Michael Rogers has the advantage of going long-range on this stage now that TSC have lost Bertie and will be after stage wins in order to get something of value out of this Tour for themselves. He opened-up at 66/1 with one early Book and within a few minutes was trimmed into 50/1, before finally now coming to rest at 33/1 with that same Book. Like Viviani in the 2013 stage 2 of the Crit Dauphine he has ridden the Giro, and whilst his condition isn’t superlative, he has the skills and talent to win this stage should his legs feel good. May be one to keep safe. 50/1 E/W (various). Should be 66/1.
Good luck to all,
SP
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On Rogers and Costa ew 
Thomas Voeckler win
Kwiatowski win
g luck all
Thomas Voeckler win
Kwiatowski win
g luck all
It is quite common when a team's leader drops out that the rest of the team rallies round and tries to win the next stage for their leader, look at the work OPQS did after Cav retired to put Mark Renshaw on the podium.
To this end Tinko Saxo Bankoff or whatever they call themselves this year, will be doing everything to win this stage, the obvious choice here then is Michael Rogers, i didn't realise he had been backed already (thanks SP) but i have got 40/1 . It may be worth savers on Roche and Bennati as well
as usual all my eggs are in this one basket
Sorry to see Contador crash out, think Nibali could well have had his measure.
Good luck to all riders and with your selections
To this end Tinko Saxo Bankoff or whatever they call themselves this year, will be doing everything to win this stage, the obvious choice here then is Michael Rogers, i didn't realise he had been backed already (thanks SP) but i have got 40/1 . It may be worth savers on Roche and Bennati as well
as usual all my eggs are in this one basket
Sorry to see Contador crash out, think Nibali could well have had his measure.
Good luck to all riders and with your selections
Sagan at 4's is a lay especially as he has mental issues about the top spot.
If I have quick pictures I will be laying high prices. No real value backing pre-off prices IMO.
If I have quick pictures I will be laying high prices. No real value backing pre-off prices IMO.
Not sure this is the stage to be laying Sagan outright, he is very well suited and if he can get his tactics right, and he is a natural rider who will benefit from the race disconnect of the rest day, any such feelings for the race might come naturally to him again. Sometimes he overthinks his races or just doesn't think, and a rest day might finally clear his head enough to make him a very dangerous proposition. SP
Great write up as usual SP, but I can't see Rui Costa being given any rope by the GC contenders to go and win a stage like this, he is still 9th overall and far too much of a threat to be allowed to get away at all.
I really like Nicholas Roche today, think this sort of stage will really suit him and Tinkoff-Saxo will be looking for stages for sure now, and Roche is their rider in the best form. I would fancy him strongly if he gets in the break, though if it has all come back together he is still capable of going on the attack in the last 20k and winning it from there. The 40/1 available last night was big, and 33/1 now still looks a decent price.
If it does come down to a reduced bunch sprint then Van Avermaet could be value at 25/1.
Gl all
I really like Nicholas Roche today, think this sort of stage will really suit him and Tinkoff-Saxo will be looking for stages for sure now, and Roche is their rider in the best form. I would fancy him strongly if he gets in the break, though if it has all come back together he is still capable of going on the attack in the last 20k and winning it from there. The 40/1 available last night was big, and 33/1 now still looks a decent price.
If it does come down to a reduced bunch sprint then Van Avermaet could be value at 25/1.
Gl all
There's been a good go for Roche, I have no real reason why he couldn't win, just can't back them all at ante-post. Cheers HB, I don't disagree with you but Costa is running out of opportunities, and that price is massive for him. I mean he was 50/1 when I tipped him for the Worlds, and now he is more than double that for a fairly easy stage, riding consistently, and is always at the front of the peloton. Just want to have him on side in case it's a splintering select group by the finale. He is due. GVA has had a difficult rest day, prefer to see him and make a decision IR, since he may come fatigued. SP
Had a very close look at Bakelants Clay, but OPQ are hard to understand with their decisions recently, and they have Kwiatkowski, Trentin, the Panzerwagan, and even Terpstra might be suited for this stage if feeling strong. Also, Westra rode well for AST on the front in stage 10, and if they'll want a spoiler in the breakaway than he is excellent value at 200/1 in comparison to Bakelants at 22/1. SP
My suuuuper long shots for today (thinking in a breakaway) at small stakes (2-3€ each)
Dany Pate @800
Vansummeren @800
Cyril Lemoine @400
Luis Angel Mate Mardones @220
Heinrich Haussler @200
Tom Dumoulin @75
Will be looking for bigger bets live.
Dany Pate @800
Vansummeren @800
Cyril Lemoine @400
Luis Angel Mate Mardones @220
Heinrich Haussler @200
Tom Dumoulin @75
Will be looking for bigger bets live.
it really depends if someone is willing to chase. Sagan tried to go, it may be an indicator Cannondale wont chase... Orica maybe?
almost 8min... if someone wants to chase (hope not :)) they have to start very soon...
sagan was a little bit ill this morning anyone knows anything more about that?
they talked about it on eurosport, but cannondale in front of the pack so cant be so serious
Jul 16, 2014 -- 1:27PM, voxykf wrote:
I know, he lying, he wants to sleep rivals
could i move the market by writing on this forum, i doubt it
Jul 16, 2014 -- 4:18PM, ExpertBoy wrote:
and onde again, Sagan doesnt desapoint :)
well....Bryan got up & over alright...just not down & along.
When will swinging pick be along to defend Sagan? Surely even swinging pick's faith in him must be running thin. How many more ways is he going to find to lose a race. His team buried themselves for him yet he still managed to mess it up.
yap, very bad from sagan. He's in top form and simply cant win.
Wow, these small classic-style stages rarely fail to disappoint -- highly entertaining stage. I think the understanding of the stage was quite accurate, the final descent was important, strong sprinters and puncheurs were both involved, and Trentin validated the stage 7 into the Nancy finish by finishing in 3rd place. I crossed him off the list on account of looking for someone stronger. Pity Spartacus withdrew from the race because that looked absolutely perfect for him.
Gallopin had a feel for the stage on the back of his Crit Dauphine podium though, and was riding very strongly, in any case. After his attack on the final non-categorized climb I was ready to rule him out since he was doing so much work, whilst conversely de Marchi was bringing Sagan through without doing much work at all. Then with Rogers, Kwiatkowski, Sagan and Gallopin together it certainly looked like the winner was going to be one of them, and Gallopin must have seen that the other three were struggling to attack so viciously. It was hard to notice that moment since the director cut-away a few too many times (on these pictures here in Australia), and some of that front race was missing, but there's nothing missing about Gallopin's talent. Anyone else think he looks like a young Gilbert? Clay? One to keep on the classics list for next season, I think.
Top ride by Clay's picks, both Roche and Bakelants on the front toiling away diligently after dispensing with the Swiss champion Elmiger. That was confirmation of the smart money going for Roche. Disappointed with Sep Vanmarcke, he went out the back on the very first categorized climb of the day, must have felt really bad to struggle so early. Konig looked indecisive when he came to the front, and for a moment looked like he might pursue Roche and Bakelants, but missed his opportunity. Rui Costa was dropped on the final uncategorized climb, which was a shame since the finish would've suited him nicely, also.
Not sure I'd mark Sagan down on too much there, obviously those front four needed to start combining because the select chase weren't hammering the descent whilst in the town initially, but what could Sagan do? I think he didn't lose that race so much as he was beat by a stronger rider. Gave himself every opportunity, but it must definitely be hurting him that he hasn't won as yet, and yet is figuring in the finish so often.
One final thing, disappointed in OGE by pushing up Cameron Meyer amongst CAN, only. I think Gerrans deserved better than that.
Cheers,
SP
Gallopin had a feel for the stage on the back of his Crit Dauphine podium though, and was riding very strongly, in any case. After his attack on the final non-categorized climb I was ready to rule him out since he was doing so much work, whilst conversely de Marchi was bringing Sagan through without doing much work at all. Then with Rogers, Kwiatkowski, Sagan and Gallopin together it certainly looked like the winner was going to be one of them, and Gallopin must have seen that the other three were struggling to attack so viciously. It was hard to notice that moment since the director cut-away a few too many times (on these pictures here in Australia), and some of that front race was missing, but there's nothing missing about Gallopin's talent. Anyone else think he looks like a young Gilbert? Clay? One to keep on the classics list for next season, I think.
Top ride by Clay's picks, both Roche and Bakelants on the front toiling away diligently after dispensing with the Swiss champion Elmiger. That was confirmation of the smart money going for Roche. Disappointed with Sep Vanmarcke, he went out the back on the very first categorized climb of the day, must have felt really bad to struggle so early. Konig looked indecisive when he came to the front, and for a moment looked like he might pursue Roche and Bakelants, but missed his opportunity. Rui Costa was dropped on the final uncategorized climb, which was a shame since the finish would've suited him nicely, also.
Not sure I'd mark Sagan down on too much there, obviously those front four needed to start combining because the select chase weren't hammering the descent whilst in the town initially, but what could Sagan do? I think he didn't lose that race so much as he was beat by a stronger rider. Gave himself every opportunity, but it must definitely be hurting him that he hasn't won as yet, and yet is figuring in the finish so often.
One final thing, disappointed in OGE by pushing up Cameron Meyer amongst CAN, only. I think Gerrans deserved better than that.
Cheers,
SP
some inside: Rui Costa is feeling very bad and shouldn recover until 3-4 days. I dont know how to say it in english, but he has "bronquitis", a very hard one (im portuguese and i spoke with is brother)
Good info. That'll be why he lost a chunk of time yesterday. It's the same in English Bronchitis.
I wonder if Horner will be allowed to go in the Alps?
I wonder if Horner will be allowed to go in the Alps?
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