TdF Stage 11.

The first stage after the rest day, and it is the first time the Tour will finish in the town of Oyonnax. The 188km stage 11 begins over rolling terrain, before hills become mountains, and where in the final third of the race the riders will have to overcome four categorized climbs and about a 15km descent into the finish.

In 2013, stage 2 of the Crit Dauphine covered 191kms from Chatel, essentially from a different direction to today’s start town of  Besancon, and therefore whilst none of the climbs will be repeated on this occasion, the stage profile actually looks quite similar. In the Crit Dauphine stage Viviani got his first win of the season from a splintering bunch sprint, with Meersman and Gallopin rounding out the podium. Reportedly, Rein Taaramae looked like winning when he took some chances on the descent, but was found out by the peloton, minus most of the sprinters who failed to make the final climb, within the final 2kms.

I believe that whilst the climbs may be a little easier here, there will be much more motivation for breakaways to try their hand for stage glory, and if the long-range break is brought back prior to the final climb, then we may see a counter attack between the puncheurs and even strong sprinters such as Sagan. In any event I believe a breakaway is likely to win, the characteristics of the stage suggests a fast finish similar to when Trentin won into Nancy of stage 7. Since this is a much shorter distance to that stage, non-puncheurs might get a closer look at the win for this stage than some Books realize.

***Sep Vanmarcke is not a puncheur but a cobbled classics specialist, nevertheless he has come out to say how much he has enjoyed the past few mountain stages. He has had three top-10 results in the Tour, but more importantly one of those was in the Nancy finish when he beat fellow countryman GVA into 9th place. In addition to making the twenty-seven man selection over the cat.4 Boufflers climb then, it is noteworthy that Kristoff didn’t, yet the reigning MSR winner is five times shorter in the market than the tough-as-nails Belgian. Likely to make presence felt. Treat warily. Good value. 100/1 E/W (various).

**Rui Costa Hasn’t as yet confirmed his Swiss win form, and may respond well after the rest day. I have had him on my list as a stage winner in this year’s race from the beginning, but haven't been confident until now. Will likely give an honest account of himself if finds luck in running. Riding very consistently. Interesting prospects. Very good value. 125/1 E/W (b365). 100/1 okay.

*Leopold Konig Still developing 26yo rider from Czech Rep. Making his Tour debut. Came onto the scene with an impressive 9th place finish in the 2013 Vuelta when on GT debut, particularly when winning the mountain-top finish of stage 8 into Estepona Alto de Penas Blancas. TNE are after stage wins, we saw that with Machado, and they will give the opportunity to the rider who feels strongest. Coming into this at the right time. 150/1 E/W (various).

*Michael Rogers has the advantage of going long-range on this stage now that TSC have lost Bertie and will be after stage wins in order to get something of value out of this Tour for themselves. He opened-up at 66/1 with one early Book and within a few minutes was trimmed into 50/1, before finally now coming to rest at 33/1 with that same Book. Like Viviani in the 2013 stage 2 of the Crit Dauphine he has ridden the Giro, and whilst his condition isn’t superlative, he has the skills and talent to win this stage should his legs feel good. May be one to keep safe. 50/1 E/W (various). Should be 66/1.

Good luck to all,
SP