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13 Jul 14
20:09
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11 Jul 11
In the 2012 edition of the Tour, La Planche de Belles Filles was an unknown factor as it was making its Tour debut in stage 7. However, the stage started from Tomblaine (to begin the first mountain-top finish of the race) not Mulhouse as it will be on this occasion. Froome won from Evans and Wiggins after he attacked with about 400m to go, although Nibali and Taaramae followed soon after, since they were part of the final selection after the 1km to go red kite.
The 5.9km closing climb featured an average gradient of 8.5%, with sections up to 13%, and the final 100m was at 14%, and it will be much the same once again, although the stage itself looks significantly tougher with seven categorized climbs (not merely two cat.3s and the one final cat.1), four of which are cat.1, and the final few hundred metres are steeper at some 20%. It is a fairly standard distance for a mid-mountain stage at 162kms.
I think that there is a slight advantage to TCS if they want to win this stage with Bertie. They now know that they can ride in an imposing manner in the way they did for stage 8, but they must also then know that unless Nibali has a really bad day they won’t likely drop him by following this basic strategy. Therefore, the next obvious if somewhat complex plan for them to try and enact should be to send Roche, Rogers and Majka up the road, and then have Bertie attack Nibali at an appropriate point, using these team-mates up ahead in order to build on his gap, win the stage and gain time over his rivals that way. If they don’t do this and decide to just follow their stage 8 plan, then Bertie is still most likely to be the Froome of 2012 on this stage by attacking his GC rivals when in sight of the line, however I think that Bertie is less likely to win the stage like Froome did, simply because a breakaway may find fertile conditions again.
In my view the GC selection group is unlikely to get excited, the contenders have so far appeared happy to remain together for as long as possible and ride as softly as possible for as long as possible. There hasn’t been much viciousness, and that would suggest that this might be another stage for the breakaway. Also, I think Bastille day in France in the Tour is a day for the French climbers to bleed on the road of their native land, and we may see another big group go, which includes a decent amount of Frenchmen.
Another stage where perhaps it might be more prudent to look for IR plays, but the French angle is a solid one for me, and I am starting with:
* Jean-Christophe Peraud is 37yo, but he is not a veteran, riding only his fifth GT and his fourth Tour since 2011. His weight looks really good for a stage such as this, he held his position very well in the principals group in stage 8, and he had an easy day in the saddle in the previous stage with the main second group containing the peloton. 100/1 E/W (various). About right price.
(** LAY 6/4 Alberto 'Bertie' Contador. Way too short on the evidence so far, and likely to trade higher.)
Good luck to all,
SP
The 5.9km closing climb featured an average gradient of 8.5%, with sections up to 13%, and the final 100m was at 14%, and it will be much the same once again, although the stage itself looks significantly tougher with seven categorized climbs (not merely two cat.3s and the one final cat.1), four of which are cat.1, and the final few hundred metres are steeper at some 20%. It is a fairly standard distance for a mid-mountain stage at 162kms.
I think that there is a slight advantage to TCS if they want to win this stage with Bertie. They now know that they can ride in an imposing manner in the way they did for stage 8, but they must also then know that unless Nibali has a really bad day they won’t likely drop him by following this basic strategy. Therefore, the next obvious if somewhat complex plan for them to try and enact should be to send Roche, Rogers and Majka up the road, and then have Bertie attack Nibali at an appropriate point, using these team-mates up ahead in order to build on his gap, win the stage and gain time over his rivals that way. If they don’t do this and decide to just follow their stage 8 plan, then Bertie is still most likely to be the Froome of 2012 on this stage by attacking his GC rivals when in sight of the line, however I think that Bertie is less likely to win the stage like Froome did, simply because a breakaway may find fertile conditions again.
In my view the GC selection group is unlikely to get excited, the contenders have so far appeared happy to remain together for as long as possible and ride as softly as possible for as long as possible. There hasn’t been much viciousness, and that would suggest that this might be another stage for the breakaway. Also, I think Bastille day in France in the Tour is a day for the French climbers to bleed on the road of their native land, and we may see another big group go, which includes a decent amount of Frenchmen.
Another stage where perhaps it might be more prudent to look for IR plays, but the French angle is a solid one for me, and I am starting with:
* Jean-Christophe Peraud is 37yo, but he is not a veteran, riding only his fifth GT and his fourth Tour since 2011. His weight looks really good for a stage such as this, he held his position very well in the principals group in stage 8, and he had an easy day in the saddle in the previous stage with the main second group containing the peloton. 100/1 E/W (various). About right price.
(** LAY 6/4 Alberto 'Bertie' Contador. Way too short on the evidence so far, and likely to trade higher.)
Good luck to all,
SP
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This is a horrible, horrible stage with so many tough climbs. I can really only see one of the big boys winning it unless there is a bit of a relaxation in the peloton and a breakaway is allowed huge amounts of rope. This is possible, once Nibali is virtual yellow again surely only Saxo are likely to be driving the pace?
Contador is the likeliest winner in my eyes but he's so far from a back at the price I guess he must be a lay.
I've taken Valverde 20/1, Bardet 40/1 and Porte at 18/1 each way, with the first two 4 places.
Contador is the likeliest winner in my eyes but he's so far from a back at the price I guess he must be a lay.
I've taken Valverde 20/1, Bardet 40/1 and Porte at 18/1 each way, with the first two 4 places.
MC -- you do realise that Nibali is virtual Yellow already, I mean you don't expect Gallopin to be riding into Paris with the yellow jersey on his back? SP
Of course not, but for the mechanics of this stage Lotto will try and keep Gallopin in yellow. Unless you saying Lotto will not make any effort at all to keep Gallopin in yellow? Of course they will, as futile as that effort will be.
What I was trying to say is that there is no natural leaders of the peloton to do "a Sky" that will bring a break back. Still, the sheer amount of climbing today and the need to stay at the front of some of the later climbs means a fast pace, and that makes the break staying out unlikely in my eyes.
The more I think about it the more I think Richie Porte is a great each way bet today.
The more I think about it the more I think Richie Porte is a great each way bet today.
Looks like a contradiction to me. LTB don't have the team to sit on the front beyond the first 20kms, where the first climb starts. They wouldn't waste their energies in any case as they know that it's, yes, a futile order on a tough stage like today. AST have artificially slowed the peloton since now the teams will look around waiting for someone to come forward to do the work, and since no one will want to, the pace will slow through this inaction, I believe. Meanwhile the French riders in the breakaway are growing the gap. TCS's next best strategy beyond the one I've suggested above, is to come forward to do the work and ride hard from the first climb, knowing that Bertie is feeling so strong that he'll have the strength to attack the principals once his team falls away. But I don't think that will happen because they have found to be somewhat deficient strategically, so far. SP
Doesn't seem like a contradiction to me, seems like we're saying exactly the same thing.
LTB don't have the team to sit on the front beyond the first 20kms, where the first climb starts. TCS's next best strategy beyond the one I've suggested above, is to come forward to do the work and ride hard from the first climb
once Nibali is virtual yellow again surely only Saxo are likely to be driving the pace?
LTB don't have the team to sit on the front beyond the first 20kms, where the first climb starts. TCS's next best strategy beyond the one I've suggested above, is to come forward to do the work and ride hard from the first climb
once Nibali is virtual yellow again surely only Saxo are likely to be driving the pace?
Apart from someone like Rolland coming out of break to win, I think there are limited chances. Leaving out Nibali and Purito, and backing Contador + Porte + Valverde at about 5/4.
Lotto int a factor here. Their team is weak to mountais, except VandenBroucke and Gallopin (wich obviously wont work). I can se some big climbers far on the GC and the ones fighting for climbers jersey like Rodriguez, Konig, Schleck, Bakelants, Peter Velits trying to escape early and the big question is: who's willing to control the race? I think Astana will do it. Even if Gallopin has the jersey its just a "virtual" jersey, and the lider is still Nibali. The second big question is: What will Tinkoff do? They know they have to attack early, but i just cant see them attacking early than last 2 climbs.
For this stage i will try some long shots (the names i mencioned and one other) and a big lay to Contador, because i think there will be a breakaway with some big names getting 4-5 minutes and i will trade much higher than @2,50
For this stage i will try some long shots (the names i mencioned and one other) and a big lay to Contador, because i think there will be a breakaway with some big names getting 4-5 minutes and i will trade much higher than @2,50
Oleg has been on about todays race for a long time, so we can expect Contador to try and do something. I wouldn't back him at the price but I can't see anyone beating him. The only issue could be someone out of the GC being let go up the road while Porte/Nibali/Contador watch each other.
Like Porte for a top 3 at 4's but price shouldn't move much in running, so will have a look at it later.
Like Porte for a top 3 at 4's but price shouldn't move much in running, so will have a look at it later.
Another terrific preview SP, thank you very much. You have persuaded me to have my first bet of The Tour, I have joined you in laying Contador.
Best of Luck.
Best of Luck.
Think he'll get back on fairly comfortably, but don't think he'll be winning today
This is good news for Demare, he could have been abandoing today he was miles out the back. If he can stay with Saxo he'll get paced back up to the bus.
Going to need a 60km/h motor pacing here by Contador or Kwia is going to be 10 mins up the road.
do itv want to have any more adverts it's a f**king joke
Frame failure?! Jesus 
How much would that play on your mind, forever? 
Don't want to hear that ahead of me doing the Tourmalet in 6 days time...
How much would that play on your mind, forever? Don't want to hear that ahead of me doing the Tourmalet in 6 days time...
If he can make it without abandoning/losing 10 mins he should be fine. Rest day tomorrow and he always comes back stronger after a rest day.
I dont wish nobody to fall, but that was soooo good for my wallet!
CJPorte and Sky are the big winners here. It's massively in Astana's interest to do a load of work at the front today to maintain/increase the advantage over Bertie. Sky could sit in and mop up towards the end?
They were saying frame failure just then, but I don't think they have any footage.
That's a massive cigar the guy in the pink hat is smoking
no way contador could be 3,50 yet... thats a lay with all my bank!
Looks done to me... Froome, now Contador... improves Valverde's chances but Nibali looks strong
contador is out to win this. He will lose at least 5 min today. crazy people still backing him at 6 or 7
gutted.... two hot favourites out before any proper battles
Alberto Contador 3.48 €3,252.21 €8,081.68
BOOMMMMMMMMMMM
BOOMMMMMMMMMMM
Timed that well
Everything you're touching is turning to gold Expert Boy
Everything you're touching is turning to gold Expert Boy
Have to feel sorry for Contador but you have to feel it's probably the best for cycling as a whole. Unless Valverde or Horner pop up with something special it's going to be another believable winner this year.
Didn't back Contador but utter lack of class to cheer his demise IMO. Looked bad when he struggled to change shoes. Maybe an ankle problem from the fall.
marychain1
Date Joined: 05 Apr 05
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14 Jul 14 15:00 Joined: 05 Apr 05 | Topic/replies: 23,400 | Blogger: marychain1's blog
Timed that well Laugh
Everything you're touching is turning to gold Expert Boy
Unbelievable really. I already made 10k at this Tour, and im not counting this GC market. Im afraid of betting anything more...
Date Joined: 05 Apr 05
Add contact | Send mes
14 Jul 14 15:00 Joined: 05 Apr 05 | Topic/replies: 23,400 | Blogger: marychain1's blog
Timed that well Laugh
Everything you're touching is turning to gold Expert Boy
Unbelievable really. I already made 10k at this Tour, and im not counting this GC market. Im afraid of betting anything more...
The people on this thread cheering/or gloating that Bertie has abandoned after a horror crash want to take a long hard look at themselves and take their bile and hatred to another part of this forum. You are not welcome on the cycling forum. We all want to win money but we are all cycling fans and their are times when saying nothing is the best thing that can happen.
I'm not fan of Froome and had laid him for lots and lots but I was gutted to see him abandon. I love this sport. I want him to lose because someone is better than him. And I would not dream of gloating over the fact he had to abandon the tdf through injury
I'm not fan of Froome and had laid him for lots and lots but I was gutted to see him abandon. I love this sport. I want him to lose because someone is better than him. And I would not dream of gloating over the fact he had to abandon the tdf through injury
clay you probably right, but i dont give a damn about that dopper, specially when i just won 6k because of that fault. And thats it.
I don't see a single person cheering Contador abandoning 
I doubt anyone is cheering at a crash. But if you are involved in cycling betting you need to make quick reactions on what you are seeing, celebrating a win after you get a judgement call correct isn't the same as cheering a crash.
Jul 14, 2014 -- 3:44PM, OnTheChase wrote:
You must be kidding MC. Look at ExpertBoys' posts.
he's cheering winning money
of course. If i didnt have any money involved, i wouldnt be happy.
definitely cj, who thinks the pelaton will catch the breakaway?
Depends how much Kwia/Martin has left. Astana hammering it on the front but not bringing the gap down if we go into the final climb with 2 mins+ I hope Kwia can hold on.
SKY now on the front hitting it. Porte looks like hes going to go for this.
I thought J-Rod would be still undercooked but he is climbing with Kwia. Could be expensive if these three stay away.
razz - itv are dreadful... watch eurosport if at home, much better
yeah I know, can't access eurosport where I am atm, making it so hard to trade on an already dangerous stage, would'nt of gotten involved if i'd known there would be this many
If you are just watching the race Eurosport player is excellent for 2.99 a month. No use for betting though as the time delay is awful.
Scarponi is a beast. Manages to fly over a supporter a few foot in the air and then comes back to pull Nibali at the front.
Superman or super man? ;)
Superman or super man? ;)
Mary,
I think you had better show your face on the World Cup forum. There are lads on there hurting badly and baying for blood after following your World Cup 'advice'.
Your preview will surely take its place in Forum history as an all time classic.
I think you had better show your face on the World Cup forum. There are lads on there hurting badly and baying for blood after following your World Cup 'advice'.
Your preview will surely take its place in Forum history as an all time classic.
I doubt anyone here cares about serial losers whinging on the football forum..
yeah, feck 'em. if they are gullible enough to follow someone else 'advice' I guess they h'ad it coming.
only football fan rabble anyway....us cycling fans are much more upstanding and worthy chaps.
only football fan rabble anyway....us cycling fans are much more upstanding and worthy chaps.
kwia cracked J ROD same brilliant Stage sad for poor Bertie and his supporters ...
I want to lay Nibali at 1.25 but I'm not sure I can. I can see him having a bad day somewhere but not losing enough time to make a decent difference in the GC.
Can't help thinking if that chase group worked with Porte there would be less of a time difference for them all.
Can't help thinking if that chase group worked with Porte there would be less of a time difference for them all.
Unless he falls, we have the 2014 Tour de France winner.
Porte can probably make 30 seconds on the TT. Can I see him picking up 2 minutes in the mountains? No.
Can I see the rest picking up 3 mins+ in the mountains? No. Have to agree with you, unless we get something unexpected Nibali has this.
Can I see the rest picking up 3 mins+ in the mountains? No. Have to agree with you, unless we get something unexpected Nibali has this.
Feel sorry for the upcoming abuse VDB is going to get.
Jurgen Van den Broeck: "It was Contador's own fault. He stepped on the pedals to overtake and rode in a hole."
Real quote or not Contador fans are going to use that against him and they are vicious.
Jurgen Van den Broeck: "It was Contador's own fault. He stepped on the pedals to overtake and rode in a hole."
Real quote or not Contador fans are going to use that against him and they are vicious.
wow fractured his tibia and still rode for a long way trying to get back on, shows some heart !
He was actually catching the peloton for a large amount of the time before he climbed off. Not sure he'll be at the Vuelta if that injury is confirmed.
Tour de France: Alberto Contador abandons after heavy crash on stage ten
By Matt Westby. Last Updated: 14/07/14 7:21pm
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Alberto Contador had been lying ninth overall
Alberto Contador had been lying ninth overall
Sky Bet
Claim your free bet now! Up To £30 Free Matched Bet
Alberto Contador has abandoned the Tour de France after breaking his right leg in a crash on stage ten.
The Spaniard fell heavily with just under 100km of a mountainous day remaining and although he remounted his bike and tried to catch back up to the peloton, he was unable to continue and quit the race around 20km later.
It initially appeared that Contador's right knee had taken the brunt of the impact, with medics applying bandages to a cut, but subsequent X-rays revealed a fractured tibia.
Tinkoff-Saxo team manager Bjarne Riis said: “Alberto crashed on a fast and straight part of the descent. He was reaching for his pocket and the bike was swept away under him, probably because of a bump or hole in the road.
Surgery
"Alberto has broken his tibia just below the knee. It’s not a complicated fracture, but it probably requires surgery. He will stay with us tonight and tomorrow he will travel back to Madrid to undergo further examinations and a surgery if necessary."
Contador retires from the race
Contador took more than four minutes to remount his bike after the incident and although he started gingerly, after about 5km he looked back up to full speed and had closed to within just over three minutes of the main bunch, which had temporarily slowed to wait for him.
However, he was then forced to receive further treatment from the race’s medical car and his deficit subsequently grew back out to over four and a half minutes.
With the pain still not easing, Contador began thanking the team-mates who had tried to pace him back to the peloton and then climbed off his bike and into the Tinkoff-Saxo team car.
Froome offers sympathy
"Big loss for the TDF today. Recover well @albertocontador & I hope to see you at the Vuelta."
Chris Froome
Contador, who was bidding to win the Tour for the third time following triumphs in 2007 and 2009, had been lying ninth overall, 4min 8sec down on leader Tony Gallopin.
The 31-year-old's withdrawal leaves Vincenzo Nibali, who regained the race lead by winning stage ten solo, as the strong favourite to claim overall victory.
Contador falls to the same fate as Team Sky rider and defending champion Chris Froome, his fellow pre-race favourite for victory, who abandoned the race on stage five after a spree of crashes.
Froome offered his comiserations to Contador on Twitter, and inadvertently revealed he will race the Vuelta a Espana later in the summer. He tweeted: "Big loss for the TDF today. Recover well @albertocontador & I hope to see you at the Vuelta."
By Matt Westby. Last Updated: 14/07/14 7:21pm
Share:
2
0
Alberto Contador had been lying ninth overall
Alberto Contador had been lying ninth overall
Sky Bet
Claim your free bet now! Up To £30 Free Matched Bet
Alberto Contador has abandoned the Tour de France after breaking his right leg in a crash on stage ten.
The Spaniard fell heavily with just under 100km of a mountainous day remaining and although he remounted his bike and tried to catch back up to the peloton, he was unable to continue and quit the race around 20km later.
It initially appeared that Contador's right knee had taken the brunt of the impact, with medics applying bandages to a cut, but subsequent X-rays revealed a fractured tibia.
Tinkoff-Saxo team manager Bjarne Riis said: “Alberto crashed on a fast and straight part of the descent. He was reaching for his pocket and the bike was swept away under him, probably because of a bump or hole in the road.
Surgery
"Alberto has broken his tibia just below the knee. It’s not a complicated fracture, but it probably requires surgery. He will stay with us tonight and tomorrow he will travel back to Madrid to undergo further examinations and a surgery if necessary."
Contador retires from the race
Contador took more than four minutes to remount his bike after the incident and although he started gingerly, after about 5km he looked back up to full speed and had closed to within just over three minutes of the main bunch, which had temporarily slowed to wait for him.
However, he was then forced to receive further treatment from the race’s medical car and his deficit subsequently grew back out to over four and a half minutes.
With the pain still not easing, Contador began thanking the team-mates who had tried to pace him back to the peloton and then climbed off his bike and into the Tinkoff-Saxo team car.
Froome offers sympathy
"Big loss for the TDF today. Recover well @albertocontador & I hope to see you at the Vuelta."
Chris Froome
Contador, who was bidding to win the Tour for the third time following triumphs in 2007 and 2009, had been lying ninth overall, 4min 8sec down on leader Tony Gallopin.
The 31-year-old's withdrawal leaves Vincenzo Nibali, who regained the race lead by winning stage ten solo, as the strong favourite to claim overall victory.
Contador falls to the same fate as Team Sky rider and defending champion Chris Froome, his fellow pre-race favourite for victory, who abandoned the race on stage five after a spree of crashes.
Froome offered his comiserations to Contador on Twitter, and inadvertently revealed he will race the Vuelta a Espana later in the summer. He tweeted: "Big loss for the TDF today. Recover well @albertocontador & I hope to see you at the Vuelta."
a great shame for the neutral as race needed him...gutted myself
I think the main thing I took away from that stage is that OPQ can be quite commercially-driven with their approaches sometimes, like a corporate entity is at the heart of their decision-making process. They've got an absolute future gun in the Polish rider Kwiatkowski, and they throw massive pressure on his small shoulders by apparently setting him up for failure. Certainly not the stage to sacrifice the Panzerwagon with him backing-up after his marvellous win, for a stage victory and time gain for Kwiatkowski, who was a carrot too big for the Peloton to ignore. Kwiatkowski just hasn't developed enough to approach a final climb of that difficulty and hold a gap to win. Never once considered he'd win this stage.
Would've been interesting to have seen, had Bertie not crashed and Nibali still attacked, if Bertie might have been capable of answering the Italian's brilliance. I think Bertie might have danced for a while to get up to speed and then buried himself to keep a few metres between them, but I don't think he would've been stronger. But we'll never know, since he unfortunately crashed. Top ride by Purito to back up in fine fashion, that polkadot jersey sure means a lot to him now. I thought Purito was a fair chance to hang on for the stage win given how well he was going in the breakaway, but those mountain point sprints against Voeckler caught up to him by the finale and he faded badly. Nibali gets full credits though, along with his team AST who have been riding brilliantly in terms of strategy -- he was just too fresh by the finale and dominated the GC group with a devastating kick.
JC Peraud looked like he might land a good bet for 3rd place, but that's cycling.
Cheers,
SP
P.S. Enjoy the rest day with a highlights package perhaps -- just confirming the general consensus that the race has had some amazing racing and a lot of surprising happenings.
P.S.2. Just to pick up on Clay's point, I don't think anyone wishes a rider to crash in order to win a bet. Some might be into cycling betting for some fast money with no actual love of the sport, and that's fine if it works for them, but at the heart of cycling is a very interesting concept, and you see it occasionally when two opponents share a water bottle on a really hot day or when two breakaway riders - who have combined together like team-mates - shake hands after being caught by the peloton. I think that if we are as fair with our comments as the riders are with themselves when cycling is as pure as we hope it is, then we all will somehow understand more.
Certainly not the stage to sacrifice the Panzerwagon with him backing-up after his marvellous win, for a stage victory and time gain for Kwiatkowski, who was a carrot too big for the Peloton to ignore. Kwiatkowski just hasn't developed enough to approach a final climb of that difficulty and hold a gap to win. Never once considered he'd win this stage.Would've been interesting to have seen, had Bertie not crashed and Nibali still attacked, if Bertie might have been capable of answering the Italian's brilliance. I think Bertie might have danced for a while to get up to speed and then buried himself to keep a few metres between them, but I don't think he would've been stronger. But we'll never know, since he unfortunately crashed. Top ride by Purito to back up in fine fashion, that polkadot jersey sure means a lot to him now. I thought Purito was a fair chance to hang on for the stage win given how well he was going in the breakaway, but those mountain point sprints against Voeckler caught up to him by the finale and he faded badly. Nibali gets full credits though, along with his team AST who have been riding brilliantly in terms of strategy -- he was just too fresh by the finale and dominated the GC group with a devastating kick.
JC Peraud looked like he might land a good bet for 3rd place, but that's cycling.
Cheers,
SP
P.S. Enjoy the rest day with a highlights package perhaps -- just confirming the general consensus that the race has had some amazing racing and a lot of surprising happenings.
P.S.2. Just to pick up on Clay's point, I don't think anyone wishes a rider to crash in order to win a bet. Some might be into cycling betting for some fast money with no actual love of the sport, and that's fine if it works for them, but at the heart of cycling is a very interesting concept, and you see it occasionally when two opponents share a water bottle on a really hot day or when two breakaway riders - who have combined together like team-mates - shake hands after being caught by the peloton. I think that if we are as fair with our comments as the riders are with themselves when cycling is as pure as we hope it is, then we all will somehow understand more.
@itcanbedone:
Already "shown my face" mate, but thanks for the concern.
Already "shown my face" mate, but thanks for the concern.
Swinging Pick - interesting summary as per usual but I do disagree with your assessment.
If we use Pinot as a 'form guide' I would have been absolutely stunned if Bertie hadn't have put a minute into him yesterday yet he was only 15 secs behind Nibali at the finish. Also, as Richie Porte pointed out, the stage would have been even harder with Saxo at full pelt as they would've brought their train to the front on the penultimate climb and probably would have isolated Nibali. Instead Nibali was able to obtain an arm chair ride behind Fulsang and then Scarponi and then attack with no pressure applied.
I see it the opposite way. I think Nibali could have raised his game more and would've have probably finished 20 secs behind Bertie yesterday. And in the grand scheme of things that would have left Bertie still a big bridge to overcome on the GC standings.
Nibali has never been as good as Bertie in the mountains.
But as you say we will never know.
If we use Pinot as a 'form guide' I would have been absolutely stunned if Bertie hadn't have put a minute into him yesterday yet he was only 15 secs behind Nibali at the finish. Also, as Richie Porte pointed out, the stage would have been even harder with Saxo at full pelt as they would've brought their train to the front on the penultimate climb and probably would have isolated Nibali. Instead Nibali was able to obtain an arm chair ride behind Fulsang and then Scarponi and then attack with no pressure applied.
I see it the opposite way. I think Nibali could have raised his game more and would've have probably finished 20 secs behind Bertie yesterday. And in the grand scheme of things that would have left Bertie still a big bridge to overcome on the GC standings.
Nibali has never been as good as Bertie in the mountains.
But as you say we will never know.
Hey Clay, always great to speak with you, your love for the sport is obvious and I appreciate your opinions and views, so thanks for your reply.
I'm not sure using Pinot as the basis for this comparison is correct, and I'll accept some responsibility for that, since I missed the important fact that Pinot is from this area originally, his father is still the mayor of the local town, I believe. Pinot would've known this climb quite well and that would've been a big advantage which is difficult to use in a comparison such as this. I therefore think you're better going with Bertie's finish on stage 8 into Gerardmer when he gained 3secs over Nibali after attacking when in sight of the line.
Nevertheless, I'm not convinced Nibali would've been isolated, since he still had Scarponi with him when he attacked the GC group on the final climb of stage 10, and he would've had more of his team-mates if not for AST shedding riders in pursuit of Kwiatkowski up the road with Martin. Kwiatkowski gaining time would've been bad for Bertie also, in fact worse, so TSC would've contributed to the pace if not took control outright, which evens out the teams and makes less likely the notion that Nibali would've been isolated. Yes, he got an armchair ride as you put it, but Nibali went a long way from home and sustained that kick quite consistently for the entirety of his ride, that's actually what finally emptied Purito and put him into reverse, and Nibali never once looked back for help from him, he just kept drilling the pace and Purito couldn't cope beyond his first attempt to get out of the saddle and try to keep pace.
It was a very strong ride by Nibali. I'm not the biggest fan of the Shark, and at his best Bertie is better, I'll agree with you there. But comparing Bertie's best attack on Nibali in stage 8, and Nibali attacking the GC from some distance on such a tough climb in this stage 10, and him then going past Purito with ease, and gaining good (15secs) time on Pinot and 20secs on the first of the rest in Valverde -- suggests to me that on this evidence Bertie was losing time to Nibali on this stage, also. And to be fair, I'll go back to the Crit Dauphine stage 2 when Bertie was answering Froome's devastating kicks, which looked a lot stronger and much more vicious than Nibali's here, however Bertie just wasn't close to that form at the Tour, and in any case Froome got the best of him by the end of that stage.
Cheers,
SP
I'm not sure using Pinot as the basis for this comparison is correct, and I'll accept some responsibility for that, since I missed the important fact that Pinot is from this area originally, his father is still the mayor of the local town, I believe. Pinot would've known this climb quite well and that would've been a big advantage which is difficult to use in a comparison such as this. I therefore think you're better going with Bertie's finish on stage 8 into Gerardmer when he gained 3secs over Nibali after attacking when in sight of the line.
Nevertheless, I'm not convinced Nibali would've been isolated, since he still had Scarponi with him when he attacked the GC group on the final climb of stage 10, and he would've had more of his team-mates if not for AST shedding riders in pursuit of Kwiatkowski up the road with Martin. Kwiatkowski gaining time would've been bad for Bertie also, in fact worse, so TSC would've contributed to the pace if not took control outright, which evens out the teams and makes less likely the notion that Nibali would've been isolated. Yes, he got an armchair ride as you put it, but Nibali went a long way from home and sustained that kick quite consistently for the entirety of his ride, that's actually what finally emptied Purito and put him into reverse, and Nibali never once looked back for help from him, he just kept drilling the pace and Purito couldn't cope beyond his first attempt to get out of the saddle and try to keep pace.
It was a very strong ride by Nibali. I'm not the biggest fan of the Shark, and at his best Bertie is better, I'll agree with you there. But comparing Bertie's best attack on Nibali in stage 8, and Nibali attacking the GC from some distance on such a tough climb in this stage 10, and him then going past Purito with ease, and gaining good (15secs) time on Pinot and 20secs on the first of the rest in Valverde -- suggests to me that on this evidence Bertie was losing time to Nibali on this stage, also. And to be fair, I'll go back to the Crit Dauphine stage 2 when Bertie was answering Froome's devastating kicks, which looked a lot stronger and much more vicious than Nibali's here, however Bertie just wasn't close to that form at the Tour, and in any case Froome got the best of him by the end of that stage.
Cheers,
SP
If Bertie didn't have a clusterf*ck and rule himself out, then I have no doubt he would have won that stage by a long while. Clay wouldn't agree with my reasons though. Just a quick opinion to compliment? both of yours.
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