TdF Stage 10.

In the 2012 edition of the Tour, La Planche de Belles Filles was an unknown factor as it was making its Tour debut in stage 7. However, the stage started from Tomblaine (to begin the first mountain-top finish of the race) not Mulhouse as it will be on this occasion. Froome won from Evans and Wiggins after he attacked with about 400m to go, although Nibali and Taaramae followed soon after, since they were part of the final selection after the 1km to go red kite.

The 5.9km closing climb featured an average gradient of 8.5%, with sections up to 13%, and the final 100m was at 14%, and it will be much the same once again, although the stage itself looks significantly tougher with seven categorized climbs (not merely two cat.3s and the one final cat.1), four of which are cat.1, and the final few hundred metres are steeper at some 20%. It is a fairly standard distance for a mid-mountain stage at 162kms.

I think that there is a slight advantage to TCS if they want to win this stage with Bertie. They now know that they can ride in an imposing manner in the way they did for stage 8, but they must also then know that unless Nibali has a really bad day they won’t likely drop him by following this basic strategy. Therefore, the next obvious if somewhat complex plan for them to try and enact should be to send Roche, Rogers and Majka up the road, and then have Bertie attack Nibali at an appropriate point, using these team-mates up ahead in order to build on his gap, win the stage and gain time over his rivals that way. If they don’t do this and decide to just follow their stage 8 plan, then Bertie is still most likely to be the Froome of 2012 on this stage by attacking his GC rivals when in sight of the line, however I think that Bertie is less likely to win the stage like Froome did, simply because a breakaway may find fertile conditions again.

In my view the GC selection group is unlikely to get excited, the contenders have so far appeared happy to remain together for as long as possible and ride as softly as possible for as long as possible. There hasn’t been much viciousness, and that would suggest that this might be another stage for the breakaway. Also, I think Bastille day in France in the Tour is a day for the French climbers to bleed on the road of their native land, and we may see another big group go, which includes a decent amount of Frenchmen.

Another stage where perhaps it might be more prudent to look for IR plays, but the French angle is a solid one for me, and I am starting with:

* Jean-Christophe Peraud is 37yo, but he is not a veteran, riding only his fifth GT and his fourth Tour since 2011. His weight looks really good for a stage such as this, he held his position very well in the principals group in stage 8, and he had an easy day in the saddle in the previous stage with the main second group containing the peloton. 100/1 E/W (various). About right price.

(** LAY 6/4 Alberto 'Bertie' Contador. Way too short on the evidence so far, and likely to trade higher.)

Good luck to all,
SP