TdF Stage 8.

The first mountain stage of the Tour takes place in the Vosges Mountains region, starting in Tomblaine and finishing 161kms later in Gerardmer La Mauselaine with a deceptively difficult mountaintop finish.

The riders will be going uphill for most of the day, starting at an elevation of 198m and topping-out on the Col de Grosse Pierre at 901m, the penultimate climb of the day and rated as a cat.2 climb.

In fact, the total three climbs are all packed into the final 27kms -- or so -- of the stage, and whilst we might see a few puncheurs like perhaps Sagan and Gerrans hanging about and acting tough on the first cat.2 to the Col de la Croix des Moinats, it is unlikely that they’ll make the selections by the ascent of the final cat.3 climb of the Cote de La Mauselaine. This final climb appears to be much tougher than the cat.3 rating it has been given, and it is therefore more likely than not that it’ll be contested by the pure climbers and therefore become a shoot-out for the GC contenders.

It is quite rare that the GC contenders would form a cabal on the first mountain stage of the Tour by deciding to conserve their energies, and in so doing offering the stage to a long-range mountain breakaway specialist like Rolland or Edet. This would only happen in rare instances where the first mountain stage was really tough such as being held in the Alps or Pyrenees on a screamingly hot day; and since this stage is neither I believe we should see some fireworks between the GC contenders and a likely stage win by one of them. It may start as a pissing contest, but eventually someone will drop the hammer hard enough to signal the free-for-all that excites the principal selection, and we might get to witness the first real evidence of where each GC rider stands at this still early period of the race.

Nibali will enter in his Sunday-best, he has to do nothing but ride confidently and allow his team to control proceedings, a task they will be well-suited to do once the climbing starts, on account of their rich climbing talent and the fact that they haven’t lost any riders like BMC, SKY and TCS have. Nibali’s condition looked good on stage 2 which he won and where he moved into the yellow jersey, but this here will be a much sterner test in all regards: his climbing legs, handling the immense pressure which comes with leading the Tour, and his overall condition going forward. He is therefore unlikely to win the stage, unless he is feeling so good that he decides to bury the opposition here and now. Which doesn’t fit with what is known about his riding style, at this time. Wait to see.

The GC contenders must attack Nibali with the view that they take some time back on him, they must connect with a combination which draws some blood and tests Nibali’s resolve and capabilities in the mountains; and the likely candidates to make an attack stick and achieve their plan are Contador and Valverde.

** Alberto ‘Bertie’ Contador. He had a little dig on the final climb of stage 7 after riding in a forward position for the most part, and whilst he didn’t look at all like his explosive best it says something that he was willing to test himself by priming his legs for this. He hasn’t done much this Tour except for that unsuccessful flex on the Jenkin Road climb in stage 2, and at 2.37mins behind on the GC he has the most to lose with a ride which sees him finish behind or even with Nibali on this stage. Therefore, he must look to commit to a deep attack at an appropriate point, maybe take some chances on the descent into the final climb, and if he can, on the final climb, manage to repeat his marvellous stage 2 ride when answering Froome on multiple occasions in the Criterium Dauphine -- then I believe he can not only ride away from Nibali, but win the stage by catching the likely long-range breakaway. Bertie opened-up as the second favourite at 8/1 with the Books, and I believe that is very good value for a rider of his talent and commitment, who has found himself in a desperate situation for the start of this stage. Should be 7/2 tops. Hard to beat. Best WIN ONLY bet.

Alejandro Valverde. He is in a slightly better position to Bertie on the GC, and he can afford to stick with Nibali’s wheel pretty-much up till the finale where a small attack and a gain of a handful of seconds over him will amount to a successful day. Valverde is less likely to win the stage than Bertie, unless he is feeling particularly strong and that will not be known until he hits the first climb of the day, toward the end of the day. Valverde opened-up with the Books as the clear favourite at 9/2 and he should remain quite solid, but I would see his position exchanged with that of Bertie’s on the betting board. One of the main contenders. Watch closely.

Richie Porte. He wouldn’t have expected to be in this position in this race when he set out from Leeds on the opening stage. It has fallen on him to lead the team, something which he has always wanted to do and it’s something which many saw happening for him in the Giro earlier in the season, but which obviously didn’t happen. Porte can afford to test himself here by following the simple and easy plan of sticking with Nibali’s wheel. Porte is a rider who improves with hard riding and is more likely to come into his own in the final week, so, for now, if he can gain incremental levels of confidence by following this one simple plan, he has some prospects to win this race at nearly 2mins down. But patience is key for him, because 1.) he appears underdone, 2.) he has had an interrupted season, 3.) he is under sudden pressure, and 4.) he is part of a thin team with only Nieve as dependable support in the mountains. He is therefore the least likely to win this stage of the GC contenders since he hasn’t shown signs of the form which would allow him to bury himself for a portion of the entire last climb, for instance. Discount.

Andrew Talansky. He crashed when Gerrans swerved across him in sight of the line, taking his front wheel out, however it has been reported that he is uninjured. He looked quite light and powerful on the final climb prior, and it didn’t look like he needed much more expenditure to ride away with a small gap when attacking the front. 50/1, even 40/1 would be about right if he didn’t crash, but trust is required now since he might stick to sheets throughout the night and have a restless sleep. Consider.

Jurgen Van Den Broeck. It has been reported that he didn’t really go down, but that he put his foot down when the riders in front of him crashed in one of the final corners, and he had nowhere to go. 50/1 when opening with the Books. Take on trust.

Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez. He has been doing nothing when sitting at the back of the peloton day-after-day, but he gets to prove his pre-race position that he is here for stage wins. Nevertheless, he is very short when opening at 11/1 with the Books, and there are several questions which are still unknown. Little value. Should be somewhere in the 30s. Wait to see.

Michal Kwiatkowski. On paper he might do well on a stage such as this, but I would need convincing that he can actually win the stage. Others have stronger claims. Discount. 9/1 with the Books is insanely short.

Good luck to all,
SP