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SwingingPick
08 Jul 14 18:56
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Date Joined: 11 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 5,589 | Blogger: SwingingPick's blog
The 156km stage 5 from Ypres to Arenberg Porte du Hainaut begins in Belgium and follows closely the cobblestone roads used in the 2010 edition of the Tour. Seven of the nine pave sectors will be the same, but the riders will have to cover nearly 2.5kms more, this time.

This stage holds great danger to the hopes of the General Classification (GC) contenders, since the pave is notorious for causing mechanical failures with equipment such as punctures and tangled chains, to accidents causing rider injuries which can be so serious that they are forced to abandon the race. In fact, in the 2010 race, the 2.4km long sector at Sars-et-Rosieres (sector 5 this time) knocked out both Frank Schleck and Janez Brajkovic.

The first pave sectors will be quite critical, and not just because the 2.1km Carrefour de l'Arbre appears after 87kms of riding, and is rated with five stars as the most difficult type. What will additionally cause problems for the riders is the riders themselves. Simply, the peloton will likely still be quite large by the time they hit this first sector, and everyone will be wanting to be at the very front in order to make an attack or not miss following one. Riders with stage ambitions will be fighting for a forward placement amongst themselves and also amongst the GC contenders who will be looking to mark each other. It will be a nervous and fractious time in the peloton, and it all makes the likelihood of crashes occurring along these narrow and bumpy roads almost a certainty.

Possibly half the field will not have raced on the cobbles, and there hasn’t been a wet Paris Roubaix (PR) in about ten years, I believe. So experience on the cobbles and good bike-handling skills will be an advantage. Riders with proven form over the cobblestones in races such as PR who are riding for teams targeting stage wins will likely be involved in the selections leading to stage-winning moves. For instance in the 2010 Tour, Norwegian Thor Hushovd won this similar stage, and by so doing he confirmed his excellent 2nd place finish on much of the same sectors when riding PR a few months earlier in the season. It also worth noting that Hushovd came into the race with clear ambitions and was riding very aggressively that year, finishing 3rd and 7th in the two stages prior to his pave stage win.

Fabian ‘Spartacus’ Cancellara. PR: 3rd 2014, and 1st in 2006, 2010, 2013. In the pave stage 3 of the 2010 Tour, he finished in 6th place of the six breakaway riders once Ryder Hesjedal was caught. Spartacus showed on the opening stage when he attacked the peloton in the finale that he is in very good condition. He’ll have targeted this stage when it was revealed that there would be cobblestones in this year’s Tour. The team want the win. Deserving of short-priced favouritism. Commands the upmost respect. Likely winner.

Sep Vanmarcke. PR: 4th 2014, 2nd 2013. After his consistent spring classics campaign, he had a win in stage 3 of the Tour of Norway and then his form fell right away. Only his 8th place finish in the opening stage of the Tour is noteworthy, in that time. Should be one of the contenders, but may require luck in running. Others have stronger claims. Take on trust.

Niki Terpstra. PR: 1st 2014, 3rd 2013, 5th 2012. A Dutchman hasn’t won a stage of the Tour since 2005, when Pieter Weening won stage 7 into Gerardmer. Terpstra was very powerful in his PR win this year, winning with time in hand, and his consistency in PR over the last three years shows his impressive ability of handling the pave. He won’t have the powerful OPQ team he had in PR, but will likely understand the mood of the race very well. The team will want the win. Note he crashed in yesterday’s stage and seemed a little frustrated with his right hand when going up through the convoy of cars, however then went on to help out in the lead-out train for team-mate Renshaw. One of the main contenders. Hard to beat.

Alex Kristoff. PR: DNF 2014, and his best result was a 9th in 2013. Riding positively in the Tour with the following results: 7/42/5/2. Should get some good team-mate assistance from bar-room enforcer and hardman, Luca Paolini. He may lack some experience on the cobbles, but makes up for it with power and strength. Warrants respect.

Marcel Kittel. PR: Only an OTL in 2011. Built big and dominating the sprints, but he’ll find these conditions the equivalent of a step up in class. Market best guide.

Peter Sagan. PR: 6th 2014. Not much experience over the cobbles, but has proven he is up to this. Riding very aggressively in the Tour so far with the following results: 2/4/2/4. Should be amongst the main selections. In races like this he is arguably somewhat tactically deficient at times, however his bike-handling skills will be a big advantage, and his  versatility has a much better opportunity to be put on display in this race since he isn’t so stretched by his need to adapt so wildly. Excellent prospects. Special.

Geraint Thomas. PR: 7th 2014. In the pave stage 3 of the 2010 Tour, he finished in 2nd place of the six breakaway riders when Ryder Hesjedal was caught. Exciting proposition if given freedom to go on his own. Worthy of very close consideration. May pay to keep safe.

Arnaud Demare. PR: 12th 2014, 90th 2013. Young French sprinter with little experience over the cobbles. Good effort yesterday when finished in 3rd place. Unlikely to get on the podium. Discount.

Greg Van Avermaet. PR: 17th 2014, 4th 2013. Riding positively so far in the Tour with the following results: 13/2/18/15. Riding with confidence is races such as this, and giving some indication that a big win such as this is close. Likely to give a good account of himself, but may not be given full freedom. Consider closely.

John Degenkolb. PR: 2nd 2014, 28th 2013, 63rd 2012. His results at the Tour so far don’t look very good. Will need to lift. Market best guide.

Lars Boom. PR: 37th 2014, 14th 2013, 6th 2012. Experienced rider over the cobbles, who has had an ordinary season and has been slow to get going in the Tour so far. Will have marked this stage to do something exciting. Take on trust.

Jurgen Roelandts. PR: 43rd 2013. Missed out in the pave stage 3 of the 2010 Tour when finished in 38th place. This year, was having a promising spring classics campaign when a crash in the Tour of Flanders ruled him out of a start in PR. Has an opportunity to make amends. Has some credentials. Do not discount lightly.

In the pave stage 3 of the 2010 Tour, Cadel Evans finished 3rd with Ryder Hesjedal finishing in 4th place and Andy Schleck in 5th – so GC riders can do well over the pave. Chris Froome, Alberto Contador, Alejandro Valverde, and Vincenzo Nibali have next to no experience in PR and are best taken on trust. Of those four perhaps Contador looks like he’ll give a solid account of himself.

Rain is forecast for the day, there’ll also be some wind, both of which will increase the difficulty of the stage.

I’ve gone for four selections simply because of those factors, and luck playing such a big role.

*** Peter Sagan. WIN ONLY. 8/1 (BetFred). Should be 10/1.
**   Niki Terpstra. E/W. 20/1 (sj). Good value.
*     Geraint Thomas. E/W. 100/1 (various). Saver value.

Good luck to all,
SP
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Report Fela Kuti July 8, 2014 7:17 PM BST
Great write up as usual SP. What's the fourth selection. You have listed only three?
Report CJ70 July 8, 2014 7:19 PM BST
Nice write up.

Going to be absolute carnage tomorrow if it is raining. Going to go for low quality fast pictures and text radio translations. Going to hammer the lays on riders who go down.

A heavy fall here tends to be race over than time lost.
Report ClayDavis July 8, 2014 7:29 PM BST
SP.....Degenkold has been doing some monster turns for Kittel in his lead out train. I think he has looked in good form so far. He said at the start he had to work for Kittel but when it got too tough for him he would be given the office to go and attack. Degenkolb will go very close tomorrow. Unlike Sagan, he will sit and wait and if they take him to the finish it could be all over
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2014 7:37 PM BST
Thanks Fela Kuti. Had Jurgen Roelandts as a (*) value saver, but I don't have an account with the best price Book quoting him as 100/1 (sb).

Cheers, CJ. Agree with the view that once down and they're pretty much gone. There have been some special rides, I think Stuart O'Grady in PR 2007 win is one but I'm not entirely sure off the tip of my head, but they're the exception in any case. They just spend so much energy to get back on that there's simply nothing left in reserve for the finale, simply because the adrenalin is pumping and once it goes they hit a big hole which no can coke will counter. So maybe a small list of those lacking top-end power beside the screens to confirm them as such plays is advisable. Good strong focus and game plan, keep it tight and I think you'll do very well. And stay relaxed. SP
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2014 7:50 PM BST
Clay, I agree, Degenkolb has been working hard, but don't you think it's a big discrepancy for him to be leading out and then fading so hard, when the alternative if riding strongly, is he pulls away and still finishes thereabouts? I don't want to take anything away from your perceptive observation, it definitely holds good ground, and he is quite short in the market which suggests a lot, and so perhaps I might have been better advised to have said: 'Take on trust'. I will add that he looks a little wobbly to me, in so far as doesn't have that low, rounded contact with the road. On this year's PR form he definitely has claims, but I'm not convinced. SP
Report federalski81 July 8, 2014 9:06 PM BST
Great write up.
I really need to contribute more to this forum when sober....

My bets are:

33/1  each way Greipel
100/1 each way Oss
150/1 each way Navardauskas
200/1 each way Trentin

Good luck folks.
Report cedarmaster July 8, 2014 9:21 PM BST
Sebastian Langeveld should be well suited by this stage with a top 8 finish at Roubaix in 2013 and 2014. There does not seem to be value in his price 33/1-66/1, i was hoping for 100/1

I agree that Degenkolb is a very likely stage winner having finished 2nd in this years Roubaix despite having a mechanical and having to work hard to get back. Again priced accordingly and 5/1-8/1 offers no value

The piece of value i like is Lars Boom who looks like he has readied himself for this stage and has decent course form (thanks SP)  40/1 is available with three firms including Joes
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2014 10:00 PM BST
I think the Dutchman approach makes sense, they're definitely due. Boom also a superlative bike-handler on account of his cyclo-cross background. How much assistance will Mollema require, though? Think that if BEL are going to give a rider free reign than it's obviously between Boom and Vanmarcke, since Ten Dam has settled into the lieutenant role. But which one will only likely be revealed IR, since it'll come over the radio. SP
Report Happybacker July 9, 2014 12:06 AM BST
If the forecast rain arrives tomorrow, i don't think we will see much if any shake up in the GC. If the conditions turn really wet I would expect the overall contenders to be extra cautious and be content to ride safely following each other. I'd be surprised if there were any attacks by the GC riders in bad conditions.

For the winner tomorrow, I think you've obviously got to expect Cancellara to be there and probably Degenkolb, but i agree with SP the one who offers the best value to me is TERPSTRA at 20/1 ew. Has been consistently good at PR including winning this year, and his team are desperate to get a stage win with Cav now out. He has to be in the mix tomorrow , and with a bit of a luck is more than capable  of winning here.

There are a lot of other good pave riders outside of these 3, like Vanmarcke, Van Avermaet, Langeveld, Van Summeren, Thomas,etc. but they may have team duties before their own personal ambitions.

I just hope all the GC riders get through tomorrow in one piece, as the mountains is where I want to see the battles.
Report cedarmaster July 9, 2014 7:09 AM BST
Terpstra looks a very likely candidate but i just worry that he may have to look after Kwiatowski and shepherd him safely through the terrain. Kwiatowski is no mug on these roads either and is 33/1 but i would hope that Terpstra guides them both through safely then Kwiatowski would give Terpstra the win but i just feel it is going to be a not losing time day for the GC guys
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 8:08 AM BST
Demare and Kristoff for me. Think you have been a little unkind on Demare saying he doesnt have experience on the cobbles, 2nd in Gent-Wevelgem and 12th in Paris-Roubaix isn't bad for a 22 year old. He comes from this neck of the woods and his ability on the cobbles means Madiot has high hopes that he can win a cobbled classic at some stage. He led the second group home in 2014 Paris-Roubaix and said afterwards that he struggled a bit with the distance. If that's the case this shorter stage should be right up his street. Kristoff has been there or thereabouts in the big cobbled races as well.

Of course, it could mean nothing if Spartacus blows it apart.
Report GoBallistic July 9, 2014 11:27 AM BST
The weather looks bad - I think the ability to ride in the wind is going to be at least as important as the ability to ride on the stones. The likes of Paolini, Chavanel, Hayman  - they will be very well suited by today especially the first two.  Hopefully the race will be in bits before the cobbles - it will be a lot less of a lottery that way
Report ExpertBoy July 9, 2014 11:49 AM BST
sector 5 and 7 cancelled
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 12:14 PM BST
My book is hoping to see Froome distanced today
Report CJ70 July 9, 2014 1:38 PM BST
Froome down again.
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 1:43 PM BST
Good start. Cobbles still 50km away and Froome already road rashed and off the pace. I'll be astonished if he doesn't lose bags of time.
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 2:30 PM BST
Demare and Kristoff in a big group dropped after Griepel's crash
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 2:31 PM BST
Kittel down as well
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 2:33 PM BST
And Demare...sprinters not having a good time of it
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 2:39 PM BST
Van Garderen down
Report CJ70 July 9, 2014 2:41 PM BST
This is carnage.

Spartacus down.
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 2:41 PM BST
Froome down again Shocked

Abandonment coming
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 2:41 PM BST
Chavanel down
Valverde down
Report the swede July 9, 2014 2:42 PM BST
froome out
Report geoff m July 9, 2014 2:43 PM BST
Where Wiggo when you need him!
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 2:43 PM BST
Abandoned
Report CJ70 July 9, 2014 2:44 PM BST
Wiggo wouldn't have done anything in this weather.
Report cedarmaster July 9, 2014 2:46 PM BST
what is Sky's plan now ??
Report CJ70 July 9, 2014 2:46 PM BST
I thought I had quick pictures but you lot had Froome out long before I did.
Report CJ70 July 9, 2014 2:46 PM BST

Jul 9, 2014 -- 2:46PM, cedarmaster wrote:


what is Sky's plan now ??


Porte

Report martin_593114 July 9, 2014 2:47 PM BST
Gutted for Froome, but reading his book one thing that stood out was sky don't really have a plan B it's going to bite them on the arse here
Report martin_593114 July 9, 2014 2:48 PM BST
Porte not been great this year so far tho has he? Hope he's been saving himself.
Report CJ70 July 9, 2014 2:48 PM BST
Ill at the start, he should be in decent nick otherwise he wouldn't be here to support Froome.
Report martin_593114 July 9, 2014 2:55 PM BST
I'm on about the whole year lol
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 2:58 PM BST
They were saying before the tour that Porte's numbers were better than Froome's
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 2:59 PM BST
Nothing worse for a GC rider than being filmed in the back of a car
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 2:59 PM BST
Nothing worse for a GC rider than being filmed in the back of a car
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 3:00 PM BST
Van Garderen & Valverde group look like they're on the back of the peloton now
Report martin_593114 July 9, 2014 3:01 PM BST
Fingers crossed then. I take it Porte is just the two seconds down? How's his TT' skills compared to AC?
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 3:01 PM BST
They're both pretty good
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 3:02 PM BST
Laying Contador for GC at 1.6 - some more fun on this stage still, anything could happen
Report hippie July 9, 2014 3:03 PM BST

If Froome falls foul of the notoriously difficult and unpredictable cobbles of northern France on stage five, for example, that will weigh against Sky – particularly as Wiggins is unquestionably the most competent of all the Tour stars in such terrain...

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/cycling/alasdair-fotheringham-sky-have-taken-risk-by-discarding-tour-de-france-expert-sir-bradley-wiggins-9504536.html


Report CJ70 July 9, 2014 3:05 PM BST
Porte's naturally the better TT rider but you never know with Contador.
Report cedarmaster July 9, 2014 3:08 PM BST
done Langeveld @ 75/1 2 top 10 finishes in last 2 years
Report razz July 9, 2014 3:16 PM BST
anyone know what price contador should be OR?
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 3:24 PM BST
This is car-narge
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 3:24 PM BST
Nibali just lost a teammate and ran him over
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 3:24 PM BST
Difficult to say razz, it's too fluid. Crashes every second.
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 3:30 PM BST
In the film of his life Valverde would definitely be played by Kev from Shameless
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 3:31 PM BST
How did they not notice the ag2r rider slide across the road on his erse and into the barrier in those pictures?
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 3:33 PM BST
Sagan/Nibali/Vanmarcke group a minute ahead of Contador/Valverde/Van Garderen
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 3:34 PM BST
Cancellara in the Sagan group. Saxo and Movistar driving the second group.
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 3:38 PM BST
This is
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 3:39 PM BST
This is intriuging now - powerhouses in the front group - Cancellara, Martin, Vanmarcke, Sagan all get a free ride from Astana.

Lots of teams in the second group working together
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 3:42 PM BST
Backed Roelandts 50/1 ew
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 3:49 PM BST
Nibali making 2 minutes on all the other GC contenders here
Report CJ70 July 9, 2014 3:58 PM BST
Thought it was Roelandts that went into the ditch head first?
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 3:59 PM BST
I backed Roelandts about 30 seconds before that. They said it was Van den Broeck that crashed head over heels at the same time as Talansky, and I thought I saw Roelandts after that working at the front, but I think he must have been told to wait for VDB because he wasn't in the lead group after that.
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 4:00 PM BST
Valverde down again
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 4:01 PM BST
This is something else by Nibali and Astana Shocked
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 4:03 PM BST
Nibali should be telling Boom that if he helps he can have the stage
Report cedarmaster July 9, 2014 4:06 PM BST
come on Lars !!
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 4:12 PM BST
Well done cedar, great pick mate
Report cedarmaster July 9, 2014 4:15 PM BST
cracking stage ,  relief as i only do win only and just missed out on Kristoff yesterday
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 4:16 PM BST
Give Westra and Fuglsang a biscuit, great rides from them today for their leader
Report marychain1 July 9, 2014 4:17 PM BST
Laid the hell out of Froome last night, also laid Contador at 1.6 today Love
Report CJ70 July 9, 2014 4:22 PM BST
Didn't think Contador would drift much. Suprised he's out so far as we all know he'll be the strongest in the final week.
Report CJ70 July 9, 2014 4:25 PM BST
Hell of a race by Kwia to be only 50 seconds down.
Report CJ70 July 9, 2014 4:27 PM BST
Schleck just rolled in 8 mins down.
Report ClayDavis July 9, 2014 4:31 PM BST
The Sagan believers must be pulling their hair out. He is finding more and more and more ways to lose races.  If he was a racehorse you would be sticking a pair of blinkers on him.

Let's return to stage 2. Sagan claimed he didn't chase Nibali as he said he was his good friend. This nonsense at comes out of his mouth is remarkable. He wasn't good enough on Sunday, and tactically awful, and wasn't good enough today. So why did Sagan not call in that favour today? Why did he not say to Nibali " drag me in your train and I'll work with you and kick late on"....nope it was LArs Boom who got the free ride on the Nibali train. Boom tried on at least 4 occasions during that race today to try and win the stage. Sagan a big fat zero.

Face facts, he just does not have it in to go to the very top. Excuses are running thin
Report GoBallistic July 9, 2014 4:32 PM BST
Astana were fantastic today - amazing Westra and Fuglsang just rode away from Cancellara and Sagan.  Belkin deserved the win (could have been a 1-2 without Vanmarcke puncture)
Report NonShy.. July 9, 2014 4:34 PM BST
valverde crash twice?
Report CJ70 July 9, 2014 4:56 PM BST
Reported as crashed twice, not sure the second one was him. If it was he did well to get back on that chase group.
Report NonShy.. July 9, 2014 5:32 PM BST
cheers CJ70
Report ClayDavis July 9, 2014 5:39 PM BST
It was good to hear Sagan at least dam the ballsed up instead instead of the usual excuses
Report SwingingPick July 9, 2014 7:02 PM BST
Not too much more I can add here. Thought that Spartacus looked imposing, doing no work, and was expecting that attack which never came, but with Lars Boom going boom-boom time and again it was quite clear he had the best legs, especially once Vanmarcke went out with his puncture. Terpstra never involved, which was strange since the front group had multiple OPQ riders. Good ride by Thomas to bring Porte back into it, and I really enjoyed watching Westra tap-out a nice rhythm. How long before Jens Keukeleire wins something good and proper? Even though he again finished over a minute behind, that was a big improvement on his PR ride for 25th place earlier in the season -- great ride.

MC -- cobbles experience is what we discussed for PR earlier, when I brought up the little known fact that Taylor Phinney won the Under 23 version of Paris-Roubaix (Espoirs), as a 20yo. Grin Demare is a sprinter, always will be, and sprinters rarely win PR. 

Nice work CM, nice piece of value indeed, mate.

First Dutchman to win a stage of the Tour since 2005. Laugh

Cheers,
SP
Report Autocue July 10, 2014 12:06 AM BST
Great to see Froome abandon. In my opinion if it wasn't for his duplicity Wiggo would be riding. Shame on you Sky for discarding him.
Report CJ70 July 10, 2014 9:10 AM BST

Jul 10, 2014 -- 12:06AM, Autocue wrote:


Great to see Froome abandon. In my opinion if it wasn't for his duplicity Wiggo would be riding. Shame on you Sky for discarding him.


I can't understand this argument. If Wiggo was there he wouldn't be motivated to work for Froome so would be half the rider, plus on a stage like yesterday he would have likely abandoned as well.

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