TdF Stage 4.

The Tour is back on home soil for the start of the 164km stage 4 from Le Touquet-Paris-Plage to Lille Métropole near the French/Belgian border and the town of Roubaix.

Two cat.4s on the profile look quite mild, the first after 34kms, and then the second 46kms from the finish, and there are three climbs between them which haven’t been categorized. I would suggest that there are enough climbs that the sprinters who had an uncomfortable transfer from London - which didn’t include a rest day - might sour their legs a little, but not significant enough that they’ll cause any selections, I’m confident.

I believe the riders are flying into France, which I question, since a pressurized cabin can stress the legs more than if they were to travel by ferry.

There was a stage (3) in this region in the 2012 edition of the Tour which Sagan won, however the profile was entirely different (hilly and with an uphill finish) and they went in the opposite direction, in any case.

Tomorrow the riders may encounter some light rain early, and there will be some wind around, however it’ll likely come as a tailwind, and neither should make a great impact on the way the race is run, from the forecast.

Whilst the peloton may feel a little lethargic, clearly only a large breakaway group numbering double-digit numbers has the best chance to stay away.

The last 5.5kms looks like prime ground for a solo attack with short little ramps or inclines, however the peloton should be charging along and it’s difficult to think that even a hard time-trialist might go off the front here.

As expected Kittel’s price has gone mental, which invites a lay position, however the hard left-hander some 2kms from the finish should be a good control point for GIA, and might then allow them to put Kittel into choice real estate on the barriers in the left sweeper some 500m from the finish, making another win highly likely.

No bets for me.

Good luck to all,
SP