Cycling
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07 Jul 14
18:31
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Date Joined:
11 Jul 11
The Tour is back on home soil for the start of the 164km stage 4 from Le Touquet-Paris-Plage to Lille Métropole near the French/Belgian border and the town of Roubaix.
Two cat.4s on the profile look quite mild, the first after 34kms, and then the second 46kms from the finish, and there are three climbs between them which haven’t been categorized. I would suggest that there are enough climbs that the sprinters who had an uncomfortable transfer from London - which didn’t include a rest day - might sour their legs a little, but not significant enough that they’ll cause any selections, I’m confident.
I believe the riders are flying into France, which I question, since a pressurized cabin can stress the legs more than if they were to travel by ferry.
There was a stage (3) in this region in the 2012 edition of the Tour which Sagan won, however the profile was entirely different (hilly and with an uphill finish) and they went in the opposite direction, in any case.
Tomorrow the riders may encounter some light rain early, and there will be some wind around, however it’ll likely come as a tailwind, and neither should make a great impact on the way the race is run, from the forecast.
Whilst the peloton may feel a little lethargic, clearly only a large breakaway group numbering double-digit numbers has the best chance to stay away.
The last 5.5kms looks like prime ground for a solo attack with short little ramps or inclines, however the peloton should be charging along and it’s difficult to think that even a hard time-trialist might go off the front here.
As expected Kittel’s price has gone mental, which invites a lay position, however the hard left-hander some 2kms from the finish should be a good control point for GIA, and might then allow them to put Kittel into choice real estate on the barriers in the left sweeper some 500m from the finish, making another win highly likely.
No bets for me.
Good luck to all,
SP
Two cat.4s on the profile look quite mild, the first after 34kms, and then the second 46kms from the finish, and there are three climbs between them which haven’t been categorized. I would suggest that there are enough climbs that the sprinters who had an uncomfortable transfer from London - which didn’t include a rest day - might sour their legs a little, but not significant enough that they’ll cause any selections, I’m confident.
I believe the riders are flying into France, which I question, since a pressurized cabin can stress the legs more than if they were to travel by ferry.
There was a stage (3) in this region in the 2012 edition of the Tour which Sagan won, however the profile was entirely different (hilly and with an uphill finish) and they went in the opposite direction, in any case.
Tomorrow the riders may encounter some light rain early, and there will be some wind around, however it’ll likely come as a tailwind, and neither should make a great impact on the way the race is run, from the forecast.
Whilst the peloton may feel a little lethargic, clearly only a large breakaway group numbering double-digit numbers has the best chance to stay away.
The last 5.5kms looks like prime ground for a solo attack with short little ramps or inclines, however the peloton should be charging along and it’s difficult to think that even a hard time-trialist might go off the front here.
As expected Kittel’s price has gone mental, which invites a lay position, however the hard left-hander some 2kms from the finish should be a good control point for GIA, and might then allow them to put Kittel into choice real estate on the barriers in the left sweeper some 500m from the finish, making another win highly likely.
No bets for me.
Good luck to all,
SP
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Replies: 18
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Demare's no show today has resulted in 28/1 quoted by Hills and that is enough to make me play
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You've convinced me MC. He likes this neck-of-the-woods after a strong ride in Four Days of Dunkirk, winning two sprints. Now into the 40s it wouldn't be right not to take some for interest. SP
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I have backed every OPQS rider bar Mark. renshaw at massive prices win only on betfair. I know tomorrow is important to them but I'm convinced they will have something planned for a stage like this. Maybe Martin will try and go alone
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Agree with you in every way. Kittel's price is way to short, even if he is the biggest favourite for the stage. A small bet on Van Poppel at @970 just in case.
Good luck |
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Kristoff been slightly unlucky on the two sprint stages so far, possibly worth a small EW play at 33s for me.
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Good write-up SwingingPick.
I'm laying Kittel, again, today. surely he cant keep doing what he did yesterday?  |
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Not going to oppose Kittel as this could be a Cav style tour for him, but 1.6 for a sprinter is ridiculous especially as its not a given that we'll end in a bunch kick.
Weather is awful at the finish line and after Greipel pulled out of yesterdays sprint because it was unsafe in the rain I'm going to lay him at 7's. Coquard & Demare look value, will touch the e/w on those two. Also going to be looking at what Kittel is looking like over the hills. Degenkolb floating around at 150's on the exchange which will be massive if Kittel shows any sign of weakness. |
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froome down dosnt look so good
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Some nice road rash there, looks OK otherwise. Not going to make it comfortable for the cobbles that's for sure.
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could this be the the deciding point for the tour...
my book says yes but i really hope froome can recover |
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lol @market price on voeckler from 300 to 25... 2 guys in front is just impossible to stay away.
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froome still has time to recover... the decisive stages still 4-5 days away
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If that wrist is anything more than just sore the cobbles are going to be an absolute nightmare.
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of course but you never know. he didnt look good in criterium du dauphine after the crash and almost same spot he got down on now.
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had Kristoff @50/1 :(
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Great shout on Kristoff.
Greipel well off the pace in the rain, one to keep a watch on. |
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Finally a close sprint, but the same result with Kittel winning. He actually looked to be struggling a bit, but once he got going was again too strong. Good ride by the placegetters in Kristoff and Demare. The thing is that winning form has a proven record in the Tour, and whilst so many things can happen, it's as CJ says, it looks like a dominant Cav-style Tour for Kittel in the sprints. SP
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Kristoff a cracking shout tomorrow, as is Demare to a lesser extent. Vanmarcke surely going to have to babysit Mollema? Spartacus will have a free reign and is rightly favourite.
The big play for me ahead of tomorrow is to lay the hell out of Froome for GC and back Valverde for trading porpoises. |