TdF Stage 2.

Stage 2 from York to Sheffield covers 201kms and appears like a slightly easier Liege-Bastogne-Liege course. There are a total of nine climbs with two-thirds of them being found in the second-half of the race. The toughest is the cat.2 Holme Mos which is 4.7kms at 7%, and it should make for the biggest selection amongst the likely regrouped peloton.

I think the GC contenders might play it cool for the most part, taking Yellow now is not to anyone’s advantage, it’s simply way too much work, and I doubt there’ll even be a late attack from any of them. I therefore believe a breakaway will very likely hold this to the line, and whilst I had some names on my short list for some time for this stage, there were some riders which impressed in the opening stage with their positive riding and have become more fancied. Unfortunately, Simon Gerrans, who did the business in LBL earlier in the year, landing some good bets, has been crossed off the list on account of Cav’s reckless riding bringing him down in the finale of the opening stage.

Australian veteran Michael Rogers is 34yo, but you wouldn’t know it after his highly impressive riding in the Giro, winning two stages including, the second longest stage 11, when on the Naso di Gatto climb he jettisoned all his fears in a thrilling power descent into Savona as the menacing peloton closed behind. He kept his form well in that race when much later he climbed very-much like a GC rider to victory on the Zoncolan, obliterating all. Clearly he is here to support Contador and his help will be necessary after TCS lost Kreuziger, but with the understanding that Bertie might not require having his hand held on a stage where the GC contenders should call a truce once upon the Holme Moss, he may be given freedom to pick a suitable group of pirates for a bar-room brawl on a likely parcours for such a fight. He finished 5th on the first stage, suggesting that whilst he wasn’t entirely suited by the finish, he thought a win was some chance. Whilst he has ridden the Giro he continues to appear full of riding. At 150/1 with (PP), he is excellent value on an E/W basis. Should be 33/1, tops. Don’t overlook. Good prospects.

Lieuwe Westra backed-up his unlucky Dauphine stage 6, 2nd place finish to Bakelants with a courageous win in the following stage when climbing onto the mountain-top finish of Finaut-Emosson, and in the process proving he has the tough-as-nails characteristics required to stand victorious in a bar-room brawl. In fact, his earlier ride impressed more, given the trail of blood he left along the parcours from his fisticuffs with Bakelants. He has a bunch of DNFs in LBL and a 123rd this season, but it’s only been since 2012 when he has given some indication of developing his puncheur-style characteristics. Excellent E/W value at 125/1 with (PP) when compared to Bakelants’ price of 40/1 near the top of the betting order. Westra is a competent performer who may find himself amongst the stage-winning selections. Worthy of close consideration.

Rui Costa impressed in the opening stage with his forward riding, he appeared to be near the front for most of the race, and that kind of riding will be an advantage here if he decides to make or go with an attack. I’m still unsure exactly how he is going to approach this Tour, but he did have a top-10 in LBL in 2013 and this stage does look like one where he might attempt the win. 100/1 (BetFred) would be about right if his intentions were clearer. Would normally be one to keep safe from the outset, but an IR play might be best at this time given the incomplete information. Consider.

Will the GC contenders believe Purito’s spiel that he is only here for stage wins, when he decides to attack on a parcours which suits? 150/1 WIN ONLY looks very big for some boxes being ticked, but there are obvious question marks. May pay to have him on side from the outset as he should be trading much shorter in-running I believe, but not sure the money will come. Interesting proposition.

Greg Van Avermaet’s last start in the Tour was in 2009. He is excited to be back in the biggest race in the world and he will be out to impress on a stage which isn’t unfamiliar to his characteristics. His best result in LBL was a 7th in 2011, but he has become a harder rider since then, and is having a good season with a 2nd place finish in the Tour of Flanders and a tough 2nd placed finish in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad when pummeled by Stannard in heavy conditions. Little value at 50/1 at ante-post. Don’t discount lightly.

Michal Kwiatkowski is here for experience and development, but given his young age I think what he understands is that he is here for a GC position over stage wins. He is too short for mine as is Jan Bakelants, and Sagan’s price is ridiculous on a stage which looks a little too tough. Sagan has never ridden LBL for a reason, and his best Ardennes result is a 3rd in 2012 in AGR, a much easier race, moreover his win in the 2013 Brabant Arrow can be considered a lower class of race compared to this.

** Michael Rogers. 150/1 E/W.
*  Lieuwe Westra. 125/1 E/W.
*  Purito. 150/1 WIN ONLY.

Good luck to all,
SP