Cheers budd, I agree with MC in that Nibali is unlikely to lose much time in the ITT if any. Nibali is pretty rock solid in the discipline and even if a GC contender has a better ride than him, it'll likely only be by a handful of seconds. I think you could include a puncture for that kind of time difference.

Nibali looked very comfortable on Bertie's wheel on the final climb of stage 8, and unless Bertie brings his Crit Dauphine game into play, and/or Valverde smashes the climbs in the Pyrenees, Nibali will roll into Paris quite comfortably, at the moment. I mean, it's still early but I could not find any evidence of a plan by the other teams to put Nibali under pressure. Sure TCS looked good on the front, but that just prevented Nibali from attacking, not dropping him. Moreover, when it was quite clear what AST were doing prior to the day's climbing by allowing the gap to blow-out to an insane amount, none of the other teams seemed to notice until it was too late. It was amateur hour, no wonder Vino couldn't get the smile off his face when the camera came alongside his car window. And the thing was that it wasn't even a sign of weakness by AST/Nibali -- why work hard when you don't have to, since there is still so much hard work to do? Smart riding by AST and poor strategy by the others. Advantage Nibali.

Cheers,
SP

why has contador shortened quite a bit now 2.06 from about 2.7 after stage 5 ?

Oleg Tinkov’s words in the media might have additionally fuelled some of that excitement.

AST smart-riding on stage 9, giving the yellow jersey away.

The virtual GC is as follows:

Nibali	VIRTUAL
Porte	+ 1.58
Kwiatkowski	+ 2.26
Valverde	+ 2.27
Rolland	+ 2.33
Contador	+ 2.34
Bardet	+ 2.39

Cheers,
SP

Nibali	@Virtual	@Restday
Porte	+1.58	+2.23
Valverde	+2.27	+2.47
Bardet	+2.39	+3.01

Even should Scarponi guide Nibali into the gutter, he'll get up, dust himself off, get back to the front, and finish hard with such a lead. However, I'm not prepared to lay all my Valverde 50s at ante-post just yet though, he can still make it interesting in the Pyrenees, and a crosswinds stage down into Nimes and/or Bergerac could throw up a surprise or two. SP

Valverde is happy with 2nd or 3rd.....can't see him doing anything other than defending that position.

I'm laying Porte for Top 3 as he always has one shocker on a grand tour where he losses heaps of time. That day is still to come!!!

Can't see Valverde beating Nibali with his TT weakness, will need a Nibali crash (unlikely) and a day off from Porte in the mountains (possible) to beat them

Yeh see what you say lads, I just have a feeling valverde will make time on Porte in the high mountains to come,whether it will be enough to get the time he needs I aint sure,but I would not be surprised if he did become Nibali's main threat.

Scarponi crashed again

^^
the start in the UK was good. they should of done the whole race there

Laying Porte for top 3 is like taking candy from a baby he does this every grand tour....always has a shocking day

Porte was always a shocking price imo,too many people wrapped up in Sky!!
How he was 2nd fav is beyond me,but happy he was!!

Yellow done and dusted bar illness or accident, but we could still have some fun for the podium.

Quiet clear that Nibali was saving himself for this tour,and to be honest I think Froome and Contador would have struggled to hold him in this form.......sadly we will never know.

Hope they all make it next year fit and in form,and add Quintana and we could well have the best race ever!!

A race around France with all the fancied riders present and accounted for, imagine that!

I think you were spot on with the MC budd, looked way too short with the data now added and prices adjusted in retrospect. I haven't really been involved beyond an initial bet on Edet at ante-post by way of a forum suggestion.

Majka might be TCS's big winner if he continues like this, since a jersey is a big prize for them in Paris, in terms of constructing a narrative around their team qualities in the face of the disruptive Contador event, earlier. So, you'd have to expect them to recalibrate if you will, and offer good support for Majka coming into the Pyrenees to control this battle for the MC. For him to finish with a win and a 2nd in two tough climbing stages back-to-back, makes for a very strong understanding of his form. The only thing is that he might have hit the top of his form right now, and all the hard riding catches up to him in the Pyrenees, since he has ridden the Giro prior to starting in England for this. This would require more work to solve, at this time.

Cheers,
SP

where will we see Uran?

Well Nibali certainly showed for me he would have been a match for Froome and Contador,and to be honest I thought he would be anyway.
Just wish we could have seen it. Although I maybe would not have won money!!!.....who knows.
Hes a worthy winner, no doubt in my mind,hes smashed them, but at the same time I am pretty sure Froome and Contador in form would have done the same.
Sometimes in sport the best are not always there to compete for various reasons,and we just have to give praise to the winner. Better that than get wrapped up in- well he would not have won if so and so were there etc etc.

Hopefully next season we will get to see the top top riders compete in the same tour,all in form.
Well we can all hope!!