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By:

detraveller When: 05 Aug 19 01:00

I have his dream body so he can't stop thinking about me.

By:

detraveller When: 05 Aug 19 01:03

Aug 5, 2019 -- 1:00AM, tomtimtum wrote:

are you back to being a Pakistani now??

no im still half dutch half south african

By:

detraveller When: 05 Aug 19 01:04

Roelof van der Merwe

By:

Cardinal Scott When: 05 Aug 19 01:04

Aug 5, 2019 -- 12:58AM, VardonVoo. wrote:

There's often talk in Poker circles about pushing all-in on coin flips if the edge is even only slightly in your favour but psychologically that doesn't appeal. I mean losing the first is bad enough, but winning the first coin-flip then losing it all on the second would feel like total muggishness to me. Besides when you include the rake you need enough dead money in the pot to make the bet +EV even if you are exactly matched. A 5% rake will eat the whole of one stack if two equally skilled players go all-in on coin-flips twenty times and swap the same money back and fourth.I heard that expression recently - "Gun Trader" - where does it come from? I think I've heard of "CUP" meaning "Cool Under Pressure" but it sounds sh!t compared to "GUN".

GUN attaches to anything......Gun Flower Arranger, Gun T20 bat....to excel is to be a Gun!

By:

detraveller When: 05 Aug 19 01:04

Erasmus

By:

detraveller When: 05 Aug 19 01:05

dropped 600 on this filth in 4 games.

By:

Cardinal Scott When: 05 Aug 19 01:07

Some Food For Thought VV

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dO1BakI8238

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4PAoWcCbO4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5_hKUKoL7s

By:

Cardinal Scott When: 05 Aug 19 01:09

YouTube is the best teacher I ever had by a country mile.

By:

detraveller When: 05 Aug 19 01:10

My professor asked our class to produce that experiment. I never did. Just went home and was doing test trading again. SO whatever the moral of that story is I didn't bother with it.

By:

VardonVoo. When: 05 Aug 19 01:11

Aug 5, 2019 -- 12:50AM, jucel69 wrote:

You can sometimes be happier with a loss compared to a win. It just depends how you get there!I've had some comebacks from the dead that have been more satisfying than big wins

I was really unnerved by your recent catastrophic and rapid fall from £150k to nearly zilch.
I really felt bad for you. It was quite strong of you to admit it to every one.
It reminded me of times in my life when I've just thrown good money after bad and ended up
really digging myself into a hole from what had been a reasonable position.
Yet other times I've started small and built steadily and patiently.
So much of this is psychology and I don't trust mine so I'm learning to insulate against it.

By:

detraveller When: 05 Aug 19 01:12

Aug 5, 2019 -- 1:10AM, detraveller wrote:

My professor asked our class to produce that experiment. I never did. Just went home and was doing test trading again. SO whatever the moral of that story is I didn't bother with it.

That's why im still in University at 30.
Free education for the win.

By:

Cardinal Scott When: 05 Aug 19 01:13

Before revealing anything on here one must bear in mind trolls are lurking in the shadows.

By:

detraveller When: 05 Aug 19 01:14

are you saying that to me CS?

By:

Cardinal Scott When: 05 Aug 19 01:15

Aug 5, 2019 -- 1:14AM, detraveller wrote:

are you saying that to me CS?

No of course not. You know who that is very well.

By:

Cardinal Scott When: 05 Aug 19 01:16

By:

detraveller When: 05 Aug 19 01:16

I mean were you advising me or someone else?

By:

VardonVoo. When: 05 Aug 19 01:17

I am Samlin? Sam I amlin?

By:

detraveller When: 05 Aug 19 01:17

Hucel69?

By:

Cardinal Scott When: 05 Aug 19 01:19

Aug 5, 2019 -- 1:16AM, detraveller wrote:

I mean were you advising me or someone else?

Just making a general point, don't reveal on here any weakneses of which we all have as trolls can be lying in wait in the shadows.

By:

detraveller When: 05 Aug 19 01:21

By:

VardonVoo. When: 05 Aug 19 01:47

Thanks CS - that Exel guy - I've seen stuff on YouTube about Kelly too - possibly the same guy.

The thing I don't like about coin-flips with a slight edge is Kelly says you should
put nearly half your bank on but a few losses in a row will cripple you even if long
term you'll come out ahead. I really much prefer long-odds situations.

I'm also of the opinion that gambling simulations don't account for exchange-trading.

If you have a slight edge you simply run your bets, scaled accordingly, until the money
rolls in over time. BUT it assumes you can scale your bets by accurately by knowing your edge
on each scenario, which you rarely do.

On the other hand if you have a trading method that you know from past experience and
results is profitable then that defines your edge and you can scale your initial position
size based on that historic edge. I haven't seen a simulator work that way.
I know I do well in Tests so I risk more initially, expecting to trade down my outcome
risk over the five days.

I haven't yet seen a simulation that accounts for the "free" green you are trading with.
If you trade a position you have a split green. At least one of those greens will go to waste,
so it is virtual money in a sense, or at least on temporary loan. So let's say you lay 1.01 for £100 and
the market moves to 1.22. If you back that for £50 you now have a likely win of a tenner and
a less likely £50 win. If the market rises to evens you can level up for a £30 win either side.
If the market kept flipping back and forth you could trade in and out and swell this green
magically as if from nothing. It's a bit like how banks can lend several times the money they
really have on deposit - that means the profit on a 3% loan could be 8 times that amount
if they only have to match 12.5% of loaned funds to actual deposits.
The deposits could even pay the same 3% and the banks would still make a gross trading profit.

By:

VardonVoo. When: 05 Aug 19 02:42

Aug 5, 2019 -- 12:50AM, jucel69 wrote:

You can sometimes be happier with a loss compared to a win. It just depends how you get there!I've had some comebacks from the dead that have been more satisfying than big wins

I know what you mean here - the dissatisfaction of a smallish win that should have been a lot bigger, compared to the relief and sense of heroism from reducing a near-disaster by frantic raw gut-feel trading down to a mere manageable loss. that keeps enough of your powder dry to let you stay in the game.

By:

jucel69 When: 05 Aug 19 03:04

Aug 5, 2019 -- 2:42AM, VardonVoo. wrote:

Aug 5, 2019 -- 12:50AM, jucel69 wrote:You can sometimes be happier with a loss compared to a win. It just depends how you get there!I've had some comebacks from the dead that have been more satisfying than big winsI know what you mean here - the dissatisfaction of a smallish win that should have been a lot bigger, compared to the relief and sense of heroism from reducing a near-disaster by frantic raw gut-feel trading down to a mere manageable loss. that keeps enough of your powder dry to let you stay in the game.

also big losses hurt more than the joy of big wins

By:

Puzzman When: 05 Aug 19 08:39

thinking about it, the next 3 games are prone to upsets/fixing. There is no home advantage in this league so all that matters is finishing in top 2 and then the top 4. The top 2 are effectively locked in Vancouver have a massive 2 run lead in run rate and the head to head was washed out so Montreal can't catch them. So that rules the first 2 games as possible upsets only the bottom ranked teams have the incentive to win. Then the 3rd game is Montreal vs Toronto this is interesting as if the bottom two actually lose then its a no game - both have already qualified barring a massive lose in run rate. However if Winnipeg have won then its a knock out game.

Will have to wait for the lineups after the toss.

By:

ItsMeSwaddle When: 05 Aug 19 09:41

Aug 5, 2019 -- 8:39AM, Puzzman wrote:

thinking about it, the next 3 games are prone to upsets/fixing. There is no home advantage in this league so all that matters is finishing in top 2 and then the top 4. The top 2 are effectively locked in Vancouver have a massive 2 run lead in run rate and the head to head was washed out so Montreal can't catch them. So that rules the first 2 games as possible upsets only the bottom ranked teams have the incentive to win. Then the 3rd game is Montreal vs Toronto this is interesting as if the bottom two actually lose then its a no game - both have already qualified barring a massive lose in run rate. However if Winnipeg have won then its a knock out game.Will have to wait for the lineups after the toss.

Yes fair comment.

By:

VardonVoo. When: 06 Aug 19 06:30

@ jucel "also big losses hurt more than the joy of big wins" - that's probably how it should be. Assuming most people exist on a "barely making do" basis a biggish win will not fundamentally change your lifestyle beyond treating yourself more often or splashing out on a luxury item or wasting it on an expensive holiday that 'er indoors convinces you is suddenly necessary, whereas the same dollar amount as a loss seriously impacts your ability to eat or pay the rent/mortgage and the first thing your lady wife would demand as a cost-saving measure would be to cut off your Sky feed that only encourages you to "gamble" anyway.

By:

VardonVoo. When: 03 Dec 19 03:53

Link to Round 2 thread (for historical reference):-

https://community.betfair.com/cricket/go/thread/view/94046/31557831

By:

Puzzman When: 03 Dec 19 18:46

Gubbing in progress

Nelson Mandela Bay Giants v Tshwane Spartans

Spartans were

1.04 $73,884 $599
1.05 $14,920 $1,240,715
1.06 $14,985 $1,061,822
1.07 $14,630 $544,191

now 2.30

By:

Puzzman When: 03 Dec 19 18:48

posted in wrong thread...