Cricket
Dec 26, 2018 -- 12:16AM, Fatslogger wrote:
Dec 26, 2018 -- 12:11AM, Bunsen79 wrote:Yep should have waited to see the pitch. I've gone 1k red all over. I think it will start to quicken up and seam around tomorrow.Draw was already down the 3s by the time I tuned in properly and can’t see that it’s ever value to back at that price so early in a game. Appreciate that none of the others have been played here but the draw is happening about 10% of the time in tests this year. The Indian batting has Pujara and Kohli and this innings a solid start from the openers so far but Australia just brought a bowling all rounder in for a batsman, albeit one who was performing poorly, so I wouldn’t be too worried that they’ll score massively first innings, at least not yet.
FATSLOGGER knew !!!
Dec 29, 2018 -- 12:40AM, trader pj wrote:
Dec 26, 2018 -- 12:16AM, Fatslogger wrote:Dec 26, 2018 -- 12:11AM, Bunsen79 wrote:Yep should have waited to see the pitch. I've gone 1k red all over. I think it will start to quicken up and seam around tomorrow.Draw was already down the 3s by the time I tuned in properly and can’t see that it’s ever value to back at that price so early in a game. Appreciate that none of the others have been played here but the draw is happening about 10% of the time in tests this year. The Indian batting has Pujara and Kohli and this innings a solid start from the openers so far but Australia just brought a bowling all rounder in for a batsman, albeit one who was performing poorly, so I wouldn’t be too worried that they’ll score massively first innings, at least not yet.FATSLOGGER knew !!!
I did and ... I didn’t. Could have been winning absolutely masses on this if I’d come in draw green in the 5s, not very red at those prices. Given that though, I’ve had a very fine test, because I’ve had pretty brassy balls to lay all the way down to 1.68.
Would have been nice if he’d held that.
Dec 29, 2018 -- 12:41AM, trader pj wrote:
FATSLOGGER credit to your day 1 and day 2 attitude towards the draw. You called it
I would regard a lot of it as stubbornness and luck.
Dec 29, 2018 -- 12:44AM, Fatslogger wrote:
Dec 29, 2018 -- 12:41AM, trader pj wrote:FATSLOGGER credit to your day 1 and day 2 attitude towards the draw. You called itI would regard a lot of it as stubbornness and luck.
great attitude
Dec 29, 2018 -- 12:49AM, trader pj wrote:
why is draw trading at 16 again ?
I don’t think the market has quite let go of rain affecting the game significantly yet. Without it, this can’t really make it far past tea of day 5, can it, even in the unlikely event of the Aussies not folding?
Dec 29, 2018 -- 12:52AM, tomtimtum wrote:
no.1 rule of test match trading, draw never dies
This.
Dec 29, 2018 -- 12:45AM, trader pj wrote:
Dec 29, 2018 -- 12:44AM, Fatslogger wrote:Dec 29, 2018 -- 12:41AM, trader pj wrote:FATSLOGGER credit to your day 1 and day 2 attitude towards the draw. You called itI would regard a lot of it as stubbornness and luck.great attitude
Stubborness and luck are great trading attributes. Luck especially. The two work especially well together though.
I was kind of thinking my massive losses this round of tests would balance out my huge politics wins for various things not happening this year. As it is, I’ll be paying another huge chunk of PC, I think, now I’ve gone green in the Kiwi game and have very good prospects of winnnig over £4k here. Went ages without paying any then got £300 or so a couple of weeks ago, trivial amount last week and then nearly £3k this. Dream run really.
Dec 29, 2018 -- 12:58AM, tomtimtum wrote:
Slogger are you on the higher rate of PC?
Yes and no. In theory I am but they don’t seem to have noticed yet.
Dec 29, 2018 -- 12:58AM, tomtimtum wrote:
trust me, if you're on it they will have noticed
That’s absolutely what I assumed but current gross profit is £357k for £68.5k charges plus the £3k this week and they’ve not hit me.
Market doesn’t think that’s out.
Dec 29, 2018 -- 1:02AM, Fatslogger wrote:
Dec 29, 2018 -- 12:58AM, tomtimtum wrote: trust me, if you're on it they will have noticedThat’s absolutely what I assumed but current gross profit is £357k for £68.5k charges plus the £3k this week and they’ve not hit me. Market doesn’t think that’s out.
fwiw, I had a grace period of a couple of weeks before they contacted me, which was nice because the IPL was on !
Dec 29, 2018 -- 1:09AM, tomtimtum wrote:
*one
i see
Dec 29, 2018 -- 1:12AM, Fatslogger wrote:
Have gone to £16k draw red. This almost can’t be drawn and 12.5 was on hard drugs. Aus win far more probable than draw unless we lose a session plus with the insurance that India winning anyway.
Do you ever have trouble sleeping with that much in play? or if you wake up early do you feel the need to check the current scores?
Dec 29, 2018 -- 1:13AM, tomtimtum wrote:
Dec 29, 2018 -- 1:12AM, Fatslogger wrote:Have gone to £16k draw red. This almost can’t be drawn and 12.5 was on hard drugs. Aus win far more probable than draw unless we lose a session plus with the insurance that India winning anyway.Do you ever have trouble sleeping with that much in play? or if you wake up early do you feel the need to check the current scores?
Tend to wake up and check but not always and probably wouldn’t if the kids didn’t wake me.
Has market not noticed they’re scoring fast here? Just laid 10.5, not taken.
-€299.51
India
€81.14
The Draw
€1,060.76
I don't think there's any point in me trying to get my 200+ india green back. I'll wait for the rain. if it doens't come, fk it.
Dec 29, 2018 -- 1:14AM, detraveller wrote:
Im not even kidding. When I have a lot at stake(1000+), I get multiple dreams during the night playing out different scenarios. And probably wake up every 10 min to check the score.
I just cant sleep even if i have a small bet in play 
Dec 29, 2018 -- 1:17AM, detraveller wrote:
Australia-€299.51India€81.14The Draw€1,060.76I don't think there's any point in me trying to get my 200+ india green back. I'll wait for the rain. if it doens't come, fk it.
get that draw green laid off, india win this every time!
Dec 29, 2018 -- 1:18AM, tomtimtum wrote:
Dec 29, 2018 -- 1:17AM, detraveller wrote:Australia-€299.51India€81.14The Draw€1,060.76I don't think there's any point in me trying to get my 200+ india green back. I'll wait for the rain. if it doens't come, fk it.get that draw green laid off, india win this every time!
you almost double your win on india if you lay off that draw green
Dec 29, 2018 -- 1:18AM, tomtimtum wrote:
Dec 29, 2018 -- 1:17AM, detraveller wrote:Australia-€299.51India€81.14The Draw€1,060.76I don't think there's any point in me trying to get my 200+ india green back. I'll wait for the rain. if it doens't come, fk it.get that draw green laid off, india win this every time!
Agreed. From a flat position I’d probably lay draw for about 10% of my bank here and that would be underdoing it. Kelly probably says put 80% of your bank on.
Dec 29, 2018 -- 1:18AM, tomtimtum wrote:
Dec 29, 2018 -- 1:17AM, detraveller wrote:Australia-€299.51India€81.14The Draw€1,060.76I don't think there's any point in me trying to get my 200+ india green back. I'll wait for the rain. if it doens't come, fk it.get that draw green laid off, india win this every time!
I did that already before lunch. I also lumped on India last night during my sleep, like you said. Only realized what I had done when I woke up and opened my account. That's the green I was playing with today
Dec 29, 2018 -- 3:23AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:
THIS IS ON!
And then Marshy falls. 
1/2 ton up for Aus's best player.
THX Pat!
#proBet
Winning 120 after commission. Life's Good.
Also such a small gap between the tests! Just a two day break!
Haven't looked at the weather yet. Not sure what to do, will wait. Contemplating draw back tbh but need to see pitch and weather.
Big pressure on Aus to drop Marsh x2. Bring in Burns at the top, maybe push Finch lower down. Who do they bring in. Maxwell? At least he is Maverick although does not seem to be a Test player. Pattinson? They have three will a 4th make any difference? Another batsman? Good idea but who?
There is also talk of preparing a green top which should even the odds for a Russian Roulette shoot out winner takes all, which, I think is Aussie's best bet.
I’m looking for the traditional draw back to lay for Sydney. Aus look rather short to me too, have to say. How will they win if it’s a good wicket? Obviously there are ways but their batting is so dubious batting first won’t necessarily see them well placed and bowling isn’t likely to go well, despite their mint quicks. Actually, on that note and I know it’s been said a fair bit, Starc really doesn’t seem the same bowler without sandpaper in action. He’s had a poor few months since the bans,,
England were suspicious of what was happening to them in the last Ashes. England put more work on the ball than anybody in Test Cricket and they couldn't get the ball to reverse. I think we all berated them for their lack of that ability and I certainly thought they lacked the speed to be effective outside Engerland. If I called any of them cart horses I apologise!
Figure it will be sunny for most of the Test so not much help for the bowlers. I would like to be all over India like a rash if they win the toss but caution must prevail. Pitch, teams, toss, new ball, early morning juice then we can see where we are
Rohit is on nappy changing duties. I see no point in bring back an out of form opener but Isaw no point in the two openers India put in the line of fire in the last match. I would now bring another spinner in, Aswin as they don't need to push for the win with Kuldeep. They can play the game, ground and pound with bat and ball. Slow the game and frustrate Aus.
Aus may bring in the leggie, Finch to remain as opener.
