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28 Oct 17
12:42
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Date Joined:
18 Jul 08
My pre game trading has gone badly, that consistent and unusual drift on Windies needs to halt and come back down!
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That Windies drift, can't continue they will come back down and make me green again! Having to red out before a ball is bowled would be intolerable
I've just layed the draw at 5.1. It's been steadily drifting down since the market was put up and I think this is as low as it goes pre-match. The forecast looks OK although there is some possibility of a shower tomorrow.
Windies at 1.5 was much too short, more realistic price now.
Windies at 1.5 was much too short, more realistic price now.
Zim have shortened dramatically. Does someone believe they are due for a win?
I hope not, I know they are skint again and finding it difficult to pay wages that can't be good for team morale, one of the reason I got involved but the opposite of what I expected has happened.
Don't need confirmation anywhere else, just watched the market to know Zimmers won toss! ...........NOT GOOD FOR ME!!
Zimmers 1 down, following on Cricbuzz....need sleep now but when I awake I hope my north of 4.0's orders have been filled!
Just delayed kip as I took from Cricbuzz that Windies were all over Zimmers like a rash..........3 Down GREEN and now I can sleep happy
I'm just sitting on my draw lay even though the green is steadily melting away.
I just can't have confidence in either batting line-up.
Unfortunately, I was in bed asleep when the bigger prices on WIndies appeared.
I just can't have confidence in either batting line-up.
Unfortunately, I was in bed asleep when the bigger prices on WIndies appeared.
Tea and Masakadza and Moor are still together. Excellent partnership of 133 so far.
Only 53 overs bowled in the two sessions
Only 53 overs bowled in the two sessions
thought windies were fairly short at 2.24 given 170 runs behind and Zim looking at a possible 300 plus runs in the 1st innings with 6 wickets left 
In the last match I think the cricfree feed came on randomly later in the day. I just have it a background tab with the sound up just in case.
cricfree say they start streaming at 09:00 whether they will or not I don't know.
Does it say anywhere what time lunch will be, given the earlier start? 'Er indoors is trying to blag a lift to the hospital - they never seem to get that just because you're sat watching a screen all day whilst not necessarily continually pressing buttons that somehow you are always at their disposal at the drop of a hat.
windies pretty short here. no chance of a lead until late tomorrow at the very best
I really hate the way the market now stays in-play so you can't tell from one screen when things are about to resume. Easy to end up having to close out tick-trades at a loss or risk a large exposure waiting for the expected market direction to resume after play has already gotten underway. I'm a bit scared to do that since that Eng/Windies match where two wickets fell in the first few balls.
On the plus side at least the cricfree.sc live stream is up today.
On the plus side at least the cricfree.sc live stream is up today.
Interpret "live" quite loosely here. It seems to be about one over behind.
Holder & Dowrich have pulled my chestnuts out of the fire...was even on the verge of reversing onto Zimmers
I’ve been very casual at trading this and don’t really deserve to be well placed but did feel the draw was over priced at various stages. Where I’ve been lucky is that I’ve hardly been paying attention and didn’t set lays up properly so missed a lot of lower draw prices. Should be all green soon though (could be comfortably if I took the draw lay where it is but am letting it ride to mid 4s).
I've been casual at times too, stems from not having a stream for large parts. Not concerned about a draw crash here as its Zimmers I've been laying!
Exactly 3 hours ago I layed Zimmers at 2.16........current Zimmers price 13's
I only got a few quid matched on the draw in the low teens so it wasn't really worth trading it off at 3s on Day 1. Carelessly lost a few quid on a silly match last week so priority was to hang on to a modest green then spread it across the board, but really should have laid the draw big red at 3s. Got a reasonable green on all three now and am drip-topping up on Zim hoping they don't immediately collapse when they get to bat. Should be some trades in there somewhere if they start out well.
Not sure how I’d price Zim up here and certainly could be down at 4s it they get through the tail quickly and start well with the bat but it’s asking lots of the ante post underdog to come back from here and could easily be dead on another 50 runs from the set pair.
Got some good trading out of this morning's Zim write-off drift (after a fruitless overnight tick-nicking vigil).
Position is now WI 1 : Draw 2 : Zim 7
Might leave it at that now as Zims chances are probably dead as FS says (wicket just fell so even more so now).
Position is now WI 1 : Draw 2 : Zim 7
Might leave it at that now as Zims chances are probably dead as FS says (wicket just fell so even more so now).
Could be over today now! I can gear up for the T20i now that my work is probably done here.
Your Eminence, may I ask when you tick-nick do you go counter-trend and wait for a reversal or do you guess/judge the likely direction and add to the position on each tick until you feel the move has exhausted itself? When I go counter-trend I always seem to find the drift goes quite a few ticks further than I would have expected and I have to wait up all night looking for any chance to close out at a loss/break-even or if I'm lucky a tiny gain. If I don't go counter-trend though, I find the drift very hard to predict and often it goes the opposite way soon after the close of play just for a few ticks (enough to goose people) then reverses later in the night.
A mish mash really, my fave method is in-play wait for a spike which takes out more than 1 price and then fill the gap that it leaves using bet angel ladder.
I do guess likely direction too pre-game, lunch, tea, stumps and place orders say 4,6 & 8 ticks away with or without the offset tool on, this test match is an example where that failed spectacularly, windies just kept on drifting.
I do guess likely direction too pre-game, lunch, tea, stumps and place orders say 4,6 & 8 ticks away with or without the offset tool on, this test match is an example where that failed spectacularly, windies just kept on drifting.
I remember years ago someone asked "why do the batting team's odds usually drift overnight?" Before then I always thought it was random as to which outcome drifted, usually the long-odds outsider, but since then I have had that idea in the back of my head, though I'm not at all convinced. On this match after the close of play on Day 1 the draw drifted quite a lot then came back in just at start of play (irritatingly not quite all the way until play had started, after which the odds dropped quite rapidly - juicy but very risky for the size of position used in overnight trading). Last night I tried to tick-nick WI and got stuffed by one tick and had to nurse it all night. I'd put my lay in with plenty of later money coming after me, expecting to get to trade it back on the opposite thinner side, but suddenly all the volume on my side got eaten leaving a left-over (so the bid became the ask) - then nothing happened for several hours. Really frustrating. Usually I'm able to tweak my position overnight enough to get rid of a decent chunk of any first-day or enhance any level green by a reasonable amount, but I really don't like to tick-nick in decent size in-play - you're a much braver man than I!
If the remaining batsmen were to achieve their average scores (not taking into account differences between first and second innings) that's about another 140 runs added from here meaning a lead of barely 90. But one or two well-above average contributions might be enough to make the game interesting. If they can at least level the score before the next wicket we could get some market panic.
As I can no longer overnight trade tests, here's a tip.
At close of play the draw will usually shorten a bit as people cover the draw in case forecast worsens overnight. Then toward start of the next days play the draw will drift, and the other outcomes shorten. Generally the fav shortens most, but it depends somewhat on who's playing.
At close of play the draw will usually shorten a bit as people cover the draw in case forecast worsens overnight. Then toward start of the next days play the draw will drift, and the other outcomes shorten. Generally the fav shortens most, but it depends somewhat on who's playing.
Hmmm - sounds plausible (today doing the opposite just to be awkward). I usually just let the drift go whichever way it wants to then fade it, but often it goes further than I expected. Sometimes there are big chunks of money either side so it's safer to trade inside the two lumps like Zim post-close yesterday.
I was thinking about your situation the other day - I'm definitely a better in-play trader than I am a judge of overall sporting probabilities and I doubt I'd do anything like as well if I couldn't use all the options available, so if you're able to come out ahead despite the hurdles you must have a highly sought-after skill. I really hope you find a way to capitalise more on it.
I was thinking about your situation the other day - I'm definitely a better in-play trader than I am a judge of overall sporting probabilities and I doubt I'd do anything like as well if I couldn't use all the options available, so if you're able to come out ahead despite the hurdles you must have a highly sought-after skill. I really hope you find a way to capitalise more on it.
1.45 w.i..and the new ball is in their hands,1 wicket here and zimmers ll fall like leafs.
I called that the Weather Anxiety Trade, and made a lot of money on it over the years. You need to be confident in your weather reading skills, but that was a strong point for me.
I no longer follow Tests. You are asking the wrong person.
Still money to be made in womens cricket. Although I missed out the Pak Nz game today. It was the right play. Just didn't get on even though I was offering the best price for a few hours.
pointless batting from zimmers !! slow death !!
4 day tests No Than You TERRIBLE for sports traders.
draw will be around 2.0 for most matches given a reasonable forcast !!
More casual trading from me getting draw laid overnight expecting it to drift (as per pxb’s comments above) but it came in instead and then failing to move my draw backs out so got much worse price than I should have done with wicket. If I’d just traded this game a bit more attentively I’d be absolutely massive here but am at least nicely placed just through being keen to snap up the draw at high prices when I think it’s been over priced almost all game. Unusual really, as usually I think the draw is too short all match.
Feels to me like Zim very good shot to save the test from here with draw still high price at 3 or over. Bat 27 overs for 68 runs and set 145 off 35 and although it sounds easy won’t necessarily be trivial on this track. Could even be left hanging on if wickets tumble looking for quick runs. Obviously more runs in more overs would make it correspondingly harder. Even the Zim win isn’t dead.
Feels to me like Zim very good shot to save the test from here with draw still high price at 3 or over. Bat 27 overs for 68 runs and set 145 off 35 and although it sounds easy won’t necessarily be trivial on this track. Could even be left hanging on if wickets tumble looking for quick runs. Obviously more runs in more overs would make it correspondingly harder. Even the Zim win isn’t dead.
Windies drifted 60 spots in the first over after lunch!
I've more or less levelled off and now drip-adding to WI as they drift. Uncanny how often a wicket falls after a fast move in odds gets underway.
Literally pressed "send" just before that wicket came over the internet feed. Wasn't watching the odds, before you all shout "after-timer".
Windies are drifting fast now as the next 10 overs are critical.
Windies are drifting fast now as the next 10 overs are critical.
If they bat another 20 overs they'll be 140-150 ahead. That will be a tall ask for WI to chase in only 35 overs (more than 4-an over) but probably easy to block out. Zim's best chance will be to get bowled out for under 120 with 45+ overs left and then hope for a chase-attempting collapse. WI may go for it if it's under 3 an over.
a decent run rate was always the issue for zimmers to win !! they have played themselves out of this test match, which they needed to win to level the series !! clueless !!
a draw must be as good as a win for zimmers !!
Done well in both tests, enjoyable series....wish there was a change of formats rather than a going home.
I'll be well-impressed with Zim's attitude if they declare during Tea.
Cremer showing no signs of worrying about his average 
in what is now a legendary knock.
in what is now a legendary knock.
Good result for Zim but you just feel they could've accelerated 20 overs ago and dangled a carrot for Windies.
I'm kicking myself. Eliminated the draw red yesterday but didn't level up, looking for a bit of extra profit and shooting myself in the foot.
My discipline used to be terrible even though I actually ended up doing really well on Tests for a number of years before taking a lengthy break. In the financial markets having poor discipline can kill you very quickly!
In case this helps anybody, here's what I've been trying to work towards for Tests:-
Whatever the "cash-out" figure is on the last day, I try to make sure my minimum win on any outcome is at least two thirds of that figure. That still allows me enough green to tweak the position if the odds swing around a lot. (The aim prior to that is of course to reduce any reds and/or be all green by the last day!)
Another rule I have, for when things go horribly awry, is to never allow my last day red to be higher than a fraction, say a half or at worst 2/3rds of my maximum in-play red in the previous few days.
An add-on to that, after satisfying the first condition, might also be to aim to lose no more than 2/3rds of whatever green you started the last day with on the favourte or second-favourite, (or whatever fraction you see fit).
It's a given in the above that you keep your maximum in-play risk at never more than a set percentage of your bank, eg 2% or maybe 5%. Trading after hours can temporarily use much higher limits as long a you don't fall asleep and/or let the position run into live play.
I think those guidelines ensure that one never loses more than the allocated per-match risk in a worst case scenario, and in most cases the wins will be larger than any losses, but natural greed won't cause you to hold out for the full amount of a high win at the expense of a loss or small win on what might have looked like an unlikely result that then comes in unexpectedly.
Personally I never back short odds if it means going red elsewhere. I cost myself a good chunk of profit evening up WI at short odds today, but I was keen to make sure my profit was above a certain amount after losing on a silly match recently. Normally, I'd settle for a small green on the short favourite and hope for a later turnaround of events.
Anyone else with ideas for trading rules please do speak up!
In case this helps anybody, here's what I've been trying to work towards for Tests:-
Whatever the "cash-out" figure is on the last day, I try to make sure my minimum win on any outcome is at least two thirds of that figure. That still allows me enough green to tweak the position if the odds swing around a lot. (The aim prior to that is of course to reduce any reds and/or be all green by the last day!)
Another rule I have, for when things go horribly awry, is to never allow my last day red to be higher than a fraction, say a half or at worst 2/3rds of my maximum in-play red in the previous few days.
An add-on to that, after satisfying the first condition, might also be to aim to lose no more than 2/3rds of whatever green you started the last day with on the favourte or second-favourite, (or whatever fraction you see fit).
It's a given in the above that you keep your maximum in-play risk at never more than a set percentage of your bank, eg 2% or maybe 5%. Trading after hours can temporarily use much higher limits as long a you don't fall asleep and/or let the position run into live play.
I think those guidelines ensure that one never loses more than the allocated per-match risk in a worst case scenario, and in most cases the wins will be larger than any losses, but natural greed won't cause you to hold out for the full amount of a high win at the expense of a loss or small win on what might have looked like an unlikely result that then comes in unexpectedly.
Personally I never back short odds if it means going red elsewhere. I cost myself a good chunk of profit evening up WI at short odds today, but I was keen to make sure my profit was above a certain amount after losing on a silly match recently. Normally, I'd settle for a small green on the short favourite and hope for a later turnaround of events.
Anyone else with ideas for trading rules please do speak up!
Just always look for value - last wicket today went from 2.2 to 1.34 - That makes no sense with 4 other wickets needing to play approximately 30 overs. LAY of the century!
For me 7s on the draw was much the better value on that wicket, seeing as the inverse of 1.34 is only about 4 and I was already big green on the Zim win, which was looking very unlikely with or without more wickets so no need to add more to it by laying WI. I only wish I hadn't wasted a chunk of green drip-backing WI as their odds started rising again, thinking they'd get at least one more wicket before time got too critical.
But yeah - those value trades are great if you can spot them in the heat of battle.
But yeah - those value trades are great if you can spot them in the heat of battle.
Rules can be very restrictive to value and opportunity and in the heat of battle more so.
I think a loosely fluid strategy is more important otherwise you are just gripped by fear and pishing on fires as a way of survival which is totally ****, i can tell ya.
Charles has a different view...
Firstly grab a large vodka and secondly grab one's nuts, whilst somehow never busting out...
I think a loosely fluid strategy is more important otherwise you are just gripped by fear and pishing on fires as a way of survival which is totally ****, i can tell ya.
Charles has a different view...
Firstly grab a large vodka and secondly grab one's nuts, whilst somehow never busting out...
The truth is, I do the same 5 or 6 trades over and over. Recently, I have moved to a loss minimization approach in the sense, I'll willingly take a small loss rather than risk a bigger one.
Because I don't bet inplay, opportunity and value aren't much of an issue for me. Except when it rains.
Because I don't bet inplay, opportunity and value aren't much of an issue for me. Except when it rains.
So I don't quite get it - in Aus you're not allowed to bet in-play AND you can't trade overnight between days (meaning it's not allowed? Or cos of timezones and sleep/work?). What does leave you free to do other than an outright final-outcome bet?
The Test overnight trading restriction only came in a few weeks ago. I do a lot of preplay trading in limited overs and other sports. Including in sports I don't know much about, like the current rugby league WC. There is also something else I do, which I keep quiet about, because it can be lucrative and I don't want to point the sharper minds on here toward it.
You can bet inplay over the phone, but I almost never do.
You can bet inplay over the phone, but I almost never do.
Ah - that's why I stopped trading options - I couldn't find a broker that facilitated trading them on-line. One used to allow buying-to-open or -close and selling-to-close but selling-to-open (writing) had to be done over the phone, which I hated. Margin for option-writing was always unnecessarily complicated too, although it was handy being able to use assets other than cash. What used to be good for punters was the "Public Limit Order Board", very much like putting up a price on BF by phone. Sadly no more,so you are always at the mercy of the market-makers prices and the market is sometimes illiquid enough that they could easily guess what side of the trade you are on when you get a quote. Options markets are very similar in nature to the runs lines markets.
So rules are a good idea in preventing losses but can also result in preventing profit.
I like to call it the battle of
Fear or Gear...............
I like to call it the battle of
Fear or Gear...............
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