Cricket
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21 Aug 17
14:07
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18 Nov 15
Draw shortened to 4.1. Anyone started trading it yet?
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Not touched it yet. Think it's 3 draws from 15 tests going back to 2007. Haven't looked at them all but the one from a couple of years ago against SA only saw a day's play. That was in October, apparently a dryer month than August so does sound like there could easily be significant rain disruption from that and that it rains 20 days in August, averaging 300mm rain the month. Course it could predominantly be in non cricketing hours.
Aus very short, I'd say. Am thinking I'll lay Aus if I can catch them very short and trade the draw. |
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I've traded a fair bit already. Mirpur is a result venue when it doesn't rain. Last match was over in 3 days. Late monsoon weather. Usually not continuous rain.
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It was a bit of a minefield last test against England and the Bangla second innings ran on well past expectation, setting up their historic win. I've laid the draw although at the wrong price as things stand. Agree draw unlikely without a lot of rain and that a huge amount seems unlikely. Bit spooked by the SA test though.
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I've laid the draw although at the wrong price as things stand.
Me too, but well within my comfort zone. |
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I didn't bother laying more at the lower prices and looked this morning and see I'm marginally in the black
 . I'm treating this pre-match draw lay as a "plug and chug" bet, nothing more needed until collection time. Of course the weather could upset that as always but seems unlikely to. |
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I laid the draw down to 3.55, and have covered most of it now.
I expect some rain, and draw should be good for trading. Ban might prepare a road to neuter the Aus pace bowling. |
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surely they'd fancy their spinners against the ropey oz batting line up ? not much to fear after warner and smith
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You'd assume they'd want the same pitch they had against England. Whether they'll get it, exactly, is a different question.
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Both sides talking up their spinners chances. Lyon says Agar much improved. Probably not a match where you'd want to bat last.
Aus has drifted quite a bit. Hopefully they win the toss and bat. |
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Not sure if this can be viewed anywhere?
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Hopefully they win the toss and bat.
That's about the only thing to justify such a short price. Could it be a worthwhile punt on the toss? |
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https://twitter.com/collinsadam/status/901308629290172416
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yr.no forecast has improved for the first 2 days.
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Draw price crash and drifted back out 2.5 to 3. Bit odd how Bang odds have been similar but Aus price taking all the draw whack
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Satellite looks not to bad. I don't expect much rain today, if any.
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Draw has gone really short in no time. On a wicket that is expected to spin?
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No one following this?
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I'm not trading this one Det as I mentioned earlier. I'm asleep through half of it and it's not being televised so it's not particularly interesting. The same goes for the series.
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Am on holiday again so not much time to get bets on and also post about them but have had a massive day in this game: had got an Aus lay at 1.6 and a bunch of draw lays from 4.1 all the way down to 3.2. Can't believe it was at 2.5! Anyway, also profitably traded the draw, lucky with the rain and have £800 Aus and 3.2k Bangla green. Not even that red on the draw.
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Decided to cash out my pre-match draw lay on the principle of not looking a gift horse in the mouth. (Thanks Australia).
Will have another look at stumps tomorrow. |
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I've done OK, but should have done better with the crazy draw prices. That's what happens when you are a bit behind the 8 ball in the other Test. Should still be some weather opportunities. And Smith might get a big one and turn the match. Although I think probably not.
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Aus were around 2 before the game and went to 2.3ish after they were batting first. If you had bet Aus at 2.3 and now look and see they are 18/3 on a turner after the home team had got a solid score you would surely think they are in a worse postion then they were when they started. Think I have to Lay Aus as even if they get 40 run lead and go 1.5 they surely have a big ask batting last plus any rain would help the drift
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take out the 1-2 loss in india which is probably an outlier they've lost something like 10 tests in a row in the subcontinent
not much evidence to suggest really that they are anything other than a shocking side when the ball does anything whether spinning or movement off the seam |
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Smith gone, big wicket for Bangladesh
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Bottled out of my Bangla back but gone after unders on Ausse. under 201.5 up to 258.5 go figure that gift!
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Have not had a bet on this,
Australia I assume have been Spun to Death here. Aus are even worse than Eng v spin, far, far worse in fact, they never learn, they never improve. |
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Agar & Cummins have done me a favour..moved Aus into layable territory and I'm waiting to be matched now.
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Trying to scrtch my Aus lay..*Drip lay* is a better play here as no limit how long those 2 can bat for, look very comfortable.
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Aus backers will be in a world of pain later, cannot see anything but a Bangers train from here on.
Money put where my post is! |
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Brain fade by Bangers but not game threatening!
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So Aus in a still bad position here, if you had backed them after the Toss at 2.3 you surely would happily red out now. I woke up looked at the scores and thought even if there is a bit of rain they really don't need many overs for a result here so I guessed Bang would be around 1.3. Seeing them at 1.7 I think I must have missed something but batting last will be hard and have topped up on Bangladesh again.
Bang runs predicted at 230 if that is the case then Aus are 15.8 to get the highest score of the test in the final innings around 270. |
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Bang over priced all along, for me. I didn't do any trading today until a tiny tickle on the draw near the end. Aus obviously could win this but seems like a chase of 200 would be a tough one (although the market won't think so), let alone a more likely 250 or so.
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Anybody here know how the market is so ahead?
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What do you mean the market is so ahead Trainy?
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I didn't understand the Q either.
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Weather looks OK. Could be over today.
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Hi pxb.
Good to see the Bangers bossing this. |
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Bangla could easily collapse and give aus 200-220 to chase which is why they might be 1.45. Otherwise I can't see how Australia can chase what they are about to be set.
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