Apr 24, 2017 -- 11:20AM, Fatslogger wrote:

Apr 24, 2017 --  3:43AM, jucel69 wrote:Apr 24, 2017 -- 12:21AM, pxb wrote:Depends on whether any more rain. yr.no has what looks like drizzle Tuesday morning. If it eventuates, market will be volatile.I think the game can take a few showers. It's all about WI's second innings now. Their best players are in the middle low order so it wouldn't be beyond the realms to see them 50 for 4/5 again.That's the scenario I would be looking for to trade out of.Backed Pak at 3.5/3.6, looking for 1.5 to 2sThis is my take on it now too, although a little bit of dynamism with the bat wouldn't hurt Pakistan's price and I'm hoping to see a lot of Safraz moving the score on.  The tail can hit the thing too, I think, although relatively little batting class from 8 down so their innings could end in a hurry but I'm not worried about WI winning, as that requires not only wrapping up Pak quickly, probably very quickly tomorrow but also a Goldilocks (copyright pxb) WI score second dig and then a further heroic collapse from Pakistan. It would, as you imply, be a bit of a surprise if the WI top order didn't make a pig's ear of the second innings against a good Pakistan bowling line up (Shah may well threaten) so I anticipate some potentially very low Pakistan prices to come. When your bankers are guys who've only had a couple of decent digs in tests, sub 100/5 is just around most corners.I misjudged where the close of play price yesterday and got a grand draw lay at 1.62 taken then felt obliged to grab some 1.48 and 1.47 too as that felt very short indeed.  My position is therefore (and despite a dog awful day 2 for me) quite healthy at:WI £5.2k redPak £6.5k greenDraw £1.2k redI'll look for some draw backing around 1.8 if Pakistan bats quickly enough to spook the price up.  In general the draw price has been remarkably volatile based on Pakistan's approach, when there was always likely to be some early slow scoring then some acceleration once a partnership got established.  That it got down to 1.33 was just madness. Sure, Pakistan's run rate affects time left in the game and prolonged very slow scoring has rightly moved the draw in but the fundamental state of the test match isn't that much affected by anything less than a really long spell of dead batting the thing and even then, you tend to see a compensatory toll taken of the change bowlers afterwards if you make a side bowl a long time, especially a bad side like WI. I regret missing my pre play draw lay at 2.6; my 1.33 just before Babar hit a 6 and the 2.1 back just before the third wicket fell. All of those were absurdly good prices that I was on but didn't hit and I'd be in absolute clover if I'd got them, albeit not as much clover as jucel, who must be about £10k all green by now, although I'm very nicely placed so not complaining. Also, after KKR yesterday, if I complain for the next week, by all means mock me.

I was up to almost 12k cashout yesterday morning before the news of the dry outfield came through.
Cost me 1k and then I also got caught out by the draw drop at the end of the day.
I could cash out for about 9.5 on all results but I'm heavily weighted on Pak at the moment to the tune of 22k

Apr 24, 2017 -- 1:18PM, East_Coast_Eagle wrote:

I think Pakistan will look to bat as a deep as possible today and keep the West Indies out of any chance of them getting any sort of lead when batting 2nd. I don't think Pakistan will hit the acceleration button during the morning session, looking more to bat out time and I think if they still have wickets in hand post lunch session, will possibly look to accelerate. The draw price will hedge on , how well West Indies bat in the 2nd innings. Bat well, and the price will shorten quite quickly, have a collapse at any stage and I can see it ballooning out.

Think that will be how Pakistan tries to play it but Safraz is a hitter not a blocker, so if there's an early wicket the game will move on, possibly quite fast, although will take a real collapse to get the WI win under 10s and rightly so, as very tough for WI to time things to win, even if they play well enough, which is itself very unlikely.

Apr 24, 2017 -- 3:15PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:

Pakistan look way too short to me!....Misbah will crawl along as per or he will fall quickly! i am opposing Pk here from a position of strength!

totally agree !!

Apr 24, 2017 -- 7:15PM, DAN1974 wrote:

Got my comedy green on WI now

I've got comedy red. Just got some more with a lay at 75 on the basis that even with storming efforts at the end of this innings and in the last two, WI vanishingly unlikely to win as would have to score fast and be bowled out for the perfect score to have any shot at all and even then would need to do something like bowl Pak out for under 180 off 60 overs. Even a good wife couldn't do it 1 time in 75.