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pxb
16 Apr 17 20:02
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Date Joined: 07 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 8,019 | Blogger: pxb's blog
Starts Friday. Some rain in the forecast but probably not enough to prevent a result, and that should be a Pak win.

A result venue. Although last match here was drawn.

A draw lay or a WI lay if forecast gets any worse.

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Replies: 880
By:
ayt
When: 16 Apr 17 20:23
PXBBBBBBBBBBBB
By:
pxb
When: 16 Apr 17 20:28
I got bored with the IPL.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 16 Apr 17 20:34
Just noticed the existence of this test. Anything other than Pak win would be quite a surprise and I'll bet accordingly, I think but start with a draw lay, as usual.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 16 Apr 17 21:51
So happy to see this.

IPL is like watching the same bad movie over and over.....
By:
Fatslogger
When: 16 Apr 17 23:03
If you'd asked me about the IPL before this weekend I'd not have been terribly cheerful about it but have had some massive wins, mostly opposing RCB since then, which has more than balanced out some big losses.

Don't usually trade tests much this far out but am having a bit of a go here.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 17 Apr 17 03:11
India and England both found test matches v Windies in the Windies recently were not cakewalks, I expect these will be competitive.
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 17 Apr 17 06:18
OFMG!

Slogger welcome to The Brotherhood!

First let me commit my act of sacrilege. I have been enjoying the IPL, really I have. I think probably because I have been having some small wins and also because Mumbai Indians have been winning.

What I would say though is I have found the exercise of watching the IPL extremely useful this year.  I was going to say the IPL is still cricket but that is a sacrilege too far for me. It has been good watching the pitting of actual skil against reputation. It has also been good to see the market get it hopelessly wrong on occaision particularly the KKR game. It gives me confidence going forward into Test Matches. It is highly dangerous to go all in for an IPL game. The train journeys are a lot quicker with no to little time to jump off a train wreck.

I haven't looked at this Test Match yet. It would in my opinion be a weakened not full strength WI Test Team against a nomadic mercenary type team, battled hardened with not many other avenues of income. WI pitches have started to resemble South Indian pitches in recent years although Jamiaca is supposedly one of the faster pitches in the Carribean. Pak have got kwality fast bowlers.

Against all that it is still Pakistan so I would limit myself to match bet only. Will look at pitch, teams and weather nearer the game.
By:
pxb
When: 17 Apr 17 06:50
Not as bad as Lanka, but I wouldn't put too much reliance on the forecast 5 days out. Showery at this time of year in Kingston.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 17 Apr 17 10:36
Happy for you FS and i fully understand.

That said when you have watched 300 IPL matches and spoke of the toss and the dew constantly.
By:
tomtimtum
When: 17 Apr 17 10:57
if you dont love the IPL, you dont love cricket !
By:
peckerdunne
When: 17 Apr 17 11:02
Stop it................Shocked
By:
DAN1974
When: 17 Apr 17 11:06
yes , real cricket !!!

i cant stand this 20/20 rubbish
By:
GRANTCKING
When: 17 Apr 17 11:59
T20 is the saviour of cricket, u bellends should be grateful
By:
Fatslogger
When: 17 Apr 17 12:10
This is my first real season of IPL betting, as far as I can recall (I don't keep records), although I certainly did have some bets on it last year.  I've even watched bits of some games this year, which again I've not done much before.  It's clearly a very different type of cricket to tests though and a vastly more random format to bet on.  Not that that's necessarily a bad thing and some swingy premium charge mitigating action suits me nicely.  Tests are the proper stuff though.
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 17 Apr 17 17:21
Get back on your own boards Grant. This one is about cricket! ( I don't suppose you know what the flight status of the pitch in Kingston is? )
By:
DAN1974
When: 17 Apr 17 19:05
which weather sites do we trust for this part of the world then ? Ive looked through most of the ones i can find and there is varying amounts of rainfall. the market looks about right, probably best to wait until the day before and watch the radar
By:
Fatslogger
When: 17 Apr 17 22:48
Can't get any remotely sensible forecasts this far out, I don't think but is showery season so likely to be the odd session affected, possibly longer if there's a really big shower. Wouldn't usually lose a lot of time though.
By:
DAN1974
When: 17 Apr 17 23:13
Yeah.I suppose you have got to be looking at a draw lay if anything at these prices. Both batting line ups are capable of getting skittled.
By:
pxb
When: 17 Apr 17 23:34
FWIIW, The forecasts aren't precise enough for our purposes. There will be afternoon showers most days. Might be heavy. That's about all you will get from the forecasts.
By:
GRANTCKING
When: 18 Apr 17 12:21

Apr 17, 2017 -- 5:21PM, Whisperingdeath wrote:


Get back on your own boards Grant. This one is about cricket! ( I don't suppose you know what the flight status of the pitch in Kingston is? )


Grin runway disguised as a minefield!!

By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 18 Apr 17 17:25
Get oooooooooooooouuuuuuuuuuuuuuutttttttttttt Grant!
By:
GRANTCKING
When: 18 Apr 17 18:53
BlushLove
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 18 Apr 17 19:21
only joking!
By:
pxb
When: 18 Apr 17 21:21
Looking fairly wet the whole match, but it may just be on and off drizzle in Kingston. I'll wait and see what it looks like Friday.
By:
DAN1974
When: 18 Apr 17 23:09
I've laid the draw and I'm getting a bit twitchy but as far as I can see people are backing the draw based on far from accurate forecasts.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 19 Apr 17 07:45

Apr 18, 2017 -- 11:09PM, DAN1974 wrote:


I've laid the draw and I'm getting a bit twitchy but as far as I can see people are backing the draw based on far from accurate forecasts.


Same here but not that worried as is the kind of forecast where there's a decent chance of very little play lost. The showers tend to be short and sharp, in the main. Should be some rain trades.

By:
jucel69
When: 19 Apr 17 08:04
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/sport/Officials-to-investigate-drainage-problems-at-Sabina-Park_81032

Could be a problem.
The other thing that keeps the draw in play is WI's inability to be able to take 20 wickets
By:
DAN1974
When: 19 Apr 17 08:51
Thanks for that Juce, but you would hope they have sorted that problem in the 4 months since the article was written.

My instincts are telling me that the draw is too short.
By:
tomtimtum
When: 19 Apr 17 21:06
https://twitter.com/westindies/status/854755510674915336

Theres a pitch there somewhere
By:
pxb
When: 20 Apr 17 01:26
That looks like a 3 day pitch. Maybe WI are rolling the dice with a carp surface.
By:
jucel69
When: 20 Apr 17 03:01
Not much grass on that deck. Could be slow and low once they shave the grass off at the sides.
Try not to get too worried about the deck until match day/pitch reports etc.
Some of the pitches in India were meant to be unplayable and turned out fine
By:
jucel69
When: 20 Apr 17 03:02
Yr has 85mm of rain on Monday.
https://www.yr.no/place/Jamaica/Kingston/Kingston/long.html
By:
jucel69
When: 20 Apr 17 03:04
They had no super soppers in the last game here v India. Not sure if they have one now, probably just some bloke with a car sponge!
By:
jucel69
When: 20 Apr 17 03:13
I'm on the draw at the moment; tentatively I hasten to add.
By:
jucel69
When: 20 Apr 17 03:17

Apr 20, 2017 -- 1:26AM, pxb wrote:


That looks like a 3 day pitch. Maybe WI are rolling the dice with a carp surface.


Normally green and fairly quick at Sabina. This looks the opposite. Do you think they are making a slow flat deck to help their inexperienced middle order?

By:
pxb
When: 20 Apr 17 03:34
I saw that overnight rain Sun/Mon. No other forecast has it. I'll wait to see if other forecasts show it.

Just a bit of trading modest stakes so far. I'm really quite uncertain about this, and your comment about 'low and slow' noted.

The last red ball match here.

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/sport/That-woeful-Sabina-Park-pitch-and-the-making-of-a-match-best-forgotten_93466
By:
pxb
When: 20 Apr 17 03:38
Actually a pink ball day/nighter.
By:
jucel69
When: 20 Apr 17 03:42
You can see the pitch better once it's been zoomed below. Up and down bounce is difficult to judge until we can see cracks etc
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9yzk1tVwAIce3W.jpg:large
By:
Foinavon
When: 20 Apr 17 10:59
I have to lay the draw at these prices with a smaller back of Pakistan. I always think of Sabina Park pitches as bouncy and quick but perhaps my memory is coloured by the great West Indies bowlers of yesteryear and the abandoned Test of '98.
West Indies bowling squad today is but a shadow of the former greatness as WD might confirm so the short price of Pakistan seems justified.
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